Commodity Insider Daily Brief

Kpler's physical counts show the chokepoint thinning while alternative routes carry the barrels; separately, Europe's new SAF data (80% UCO, 85% imported, 61% Chinese origin) and Brussels' tightening UCO import rule sharpen the structural case for — but do not guarantee — a West African feedstock channel.

Only seven commodity vessels crossed the Strait on 6 October, the fewest since 23 July, per Kpler data cited by Reuters, while crude moving directly through the chokepoint slipped about 27% from its wartime peak to roughly 10.1 mn b/d. Total Middle East crude exports have nonetheless stayed near pre-war levels because loadings from the Gulf of Oman coast and the Red Sea have more than doubled to about 6.7 mn b/d. The market has not repaired the chokepoint; it has routed around it, and the connectors doing that work are increasingly the exposure that matters.

Middle East crude exports have clawed back to roughly pre-war levels while product exports lag, handing refiners extraordinary margins. That recovery is being underwritten by the most dangerous week of tanker incidents since the Iran war began, and by a diesel market that governments are now papering over with strategic stock releases.

Saudi Arabia is moving roughly 4 million b/d west to Yanbu while Houthi strikes re-prove that lost coastline does not equal safe water — and that resetting energy security around spare routes is now the market's core trade.

Vortexa data reported by Reuters show Gulf producers excluding Iran shipping about 19.2m b/d in September, 81% of the 23.6m b/d pre-war norm; Kpler's parallel estimate for total September Gulf oil exports is 18.6m b/d. Underneath the aggregate, crude and condensate have recovered to roughly 91% while refined fuels — including LPG — sit near 60%, keeping diesel and jet fuel tight even as Brent slips toward $100 and Washington and the IEA prepare a G7 stock release.

Saudi-backed Yemeni forces say they have cleared Houthi control from the Bab el-Mandeb coastline up to Mocha, the first material territorial shift at a major chokepoint in weeks. But the more consequential story is quieter: September data show Gulf crude exports back near pre-war levels while refined products lag badly, and Reuters argues logistics — not supply — is now oil's binding constraint. For feedstock and West African buyers, that gap is where delivered cost is being decided.

Kpler's seven-day moving average of Middle East crude exports was about 18.3mn b/d as of 30 September, and volumes exceeded pre-war levels on 14 days of the month, yet at least seven tanker attacks were logged in the past week and freight on some Middle East–Asia runs spiked from roughly $30,000/day toward $1.2mn/day in the most disrupted cases. Separately, Reuters reports, citing Yemeni government and military sources, that Saudi-backed government forces retook Dhubab district and its airstrip beside Bab el-Mandeb, advanced along the coast toward Mocha and drove Houthis from most of the areas they seized last month, with Houthi fighters retreating into the highlands — Reuters said it could not independently verify the extent of the gains and the Houthis called the claims baseless — the first reported territorial change of this offensive that could eventually reshape maritime risk, though missile and drone reach does not require holding the coastline.

Regional crude loadings have recovered to roughly 18.5 mb/d and spiked as high as 19.5–22.5 mb/d on some late-September days even as Hormuz remains officially closed and attacks on tankers intensify, shifting the market's marginal risk from missing barrels to uninsurable voyages.

The Saudi-backed Yemeni government has launched a campaign to retake all Houthi-held territory, converting the Red Sea chokepoint from a shipping risk into an active battlefield. OPEC+ said it would leave November output targets unchanged, Russia answered Ukraine's refinery threat with fresh Black Sea strikes, Hormuz LNG flows hit a post-war high, and Nigeria's crude and UCO stories stayed structural rather than headline-fresh.

The confirmed facts are a Houthi claim and a witness-reported fire — not a confirmed outage. But with Kyiv signalling more refinery strikes and Baghdad sending a VLCC through Hormuz, the day's real signal is that geopolitical risk is migrating from the strait to the plant.