The Mental Models Daily Podcast

Conditional Probability


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Conditional probability is a measure of the likelihood of an event occurring given that another event has already occurred. It quantifies the probability of one event (the "conditional event") happening under the condition that another event (the "conditioning event") has already occurred. Conditional probability is calculated using the formula: P(A|B) = P(A ∩ B) / P(B), where P(A|B) represents the probability of event A occurring given that event B has occurred, P(A ∩ B) represents the probability of both events A and B occurring simultaneously, and P(B) represents the probability of event B occurring.


Probability isn’t always straightforward. Conditional Probability helps you navigate the complexities. 🎲🔗 #ConditionalProbability #Probability

#MentalModels #Statistics #CriticalThinking #DecisionMaking


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