Rates are climbing, carriers are piling on surcharges, and peak season is arriving ahead of schedule. This week Lars Jensen runs the numbers on why the market is where it is and it has everything to do with the Red Sea and almost nothing to do with how consumers are feeling.

In this episode, Lars Jensen and Caroline Weaver cover:

• Why Pacific and Asia-Europe spot rates continue their upward momentum and what the futures curve is signaling for peak season, including a sharp expected pullback as early as September
• The statistical relationship between US consumer sentiment and container volumes: Lars ran the analysis and the correlation coefficient is 0.3. There effectively isn't one.
• Hormuz update: no deal, drone strikes on Kuwait, a suspected mine in Omani waters, and an MSC 18,000 TEU vessel that went dark for five days and reappeared off West Africa
• How CMA-CGM continues to quietly expand its Suez routing while every other carrier goes around Africa
• China PMI at exactly 50, and why the raw materials sub-index shooting above 60 post-Hormuz is the inflation signal worth watching
• Global trade imbalances since 2019: full containers up 17%, fleet up 43%, TEU miles up 41% and empty container movements up 102%