This week’s Supply Chain Secrets is jam-packed. Lars Jensen and Caroline Weaver dig into sharp post–Chinese New Year moves: loaded spot rates falling faster than expected, spreads tightening across Pacific trades, and what that means for market certainty. We unpack carrier results, network changes from Ocean Alliance’s “Day 10,” and real operational risk in the Red Sea return.

The headline story: Hapag-Lloyd’s agreement to acquire most of ZIM’s fleet: what it means for Gemini, MSC, and competitive dynamics in the Transpacific and beyond. Lars breaks down why the deal matters strategically (fleet composition, charter vs. owned tonnage, and network implications), and why shippers, NVOCCs and carriers should be watching service reshuffles closely this contract season.

If you want data-forward insight into where rates are actually moving, how to read market spreads (not just headlines), and what consolidation means for your routing and negotiation strategy — press play.

Freight markets are turning earlier—and faster—than seasonal patterns would suggest. In this episode of Supply Chain Secrets, Caroline Weaver and Lars Jensen unpack why Pacific spot rates are collapsing well ahead of Chinese New Year, how this downturn compares to historical seasonality, and what that means for carriers and shippers alike.

Lars also introduces a deeper way to look at the market: not just the headline rate, but the spread around it. Using real NYFI data, he explains how wide or narrow spreads reveal market uncertainty, negotiating power, and whether shippers are truly “in market.”

The conversation then shifts to the latest on tariffs, global demand bifurcation, carrier earnings, and early steps toward a Red Sea reopening, including Gemini network moves and what a gradual return could look like in practice.

A data-driven look at where the market is weakening, where risk remains, and how alignment—not headlines—matters most heading deeper into 2026.

Rates are rolling over earlier than expected, and the gap between quoted and paid freight rates is widening again.

In this episode of Supply Chain Secrets, Caroline Weaver and Lars Jensen break down what’s driving the post–Chinese New Year slowdown, why quoted spot rates tend to exaggerate both peaks and troughs, and what that means for shippers heading into contract season. Lars also shares a concrete example showing how index choice alone can materially change freight costs—especially when proxies are used instead of actual loaded-rate data.

The conversation then turns to trade policy and geopolitics, including fresh tariff threats, the EU–India trade deal, Q4 carrier earnings, Panama Canal developments, and renewed uncertainty in the Red Sea.

For anyone planning budgets, contracts, or capacity in 2026, this episode offers timely perspective on where the market may head next—and where hidden risk still lives.

Freight markets are turning earlier than usual. In this episode of Supply Chain Secrets, Caroline Weaver and Lars Jensen break down sharp declines in quoted rates, early signs that the Chinese New Year peak has already passed, and what actual paid spot rates are signaling across key trades.

Lars also walks through a real-world example showing how choosing the wrong index in an index-linked contract can materially impact costs, underscoring why detail matters as indexing gains traction. The conversation then turns to tariffs and the Red Sea, where new signals—from carrier routing decisions to a fresh Houthi warning—suggest risk may not be fully behind us yet.

A practical discussion on what shippers should watch as volatility continues into 2026.

As 2026 gets underway, early signals are already diverging. In this episode of Supply Chain Secrets, Caroline Weaver and Lars Jensen are joined by Matthew Chicalace of Hellmann Worldwide Logistics to break down the growing gap between quoted and paid rates, early NYFI movements post–Chinese New Year, and what those signals really say about the market.

The conversation also dives into rising interest in index-linked contracts, how forwarders and carriers are approaching contract season, and why volatility remains structural. Finally, Lars unpacks the latest developments around the Red Sea reopening, geopolitical risks tied to Iran and Greenland, and how quickly trade lanes could shift again in 2026.

A timely discussion on how shippers are navigating uncertainty—and why flexibility and alignment matter more than ever.

As 2026 gets underway, early market signals are already diverging. In this episode of Supply Chain Secrets, Caroline Weaver and Lars Jensen break down where freight rates are heading post-Chinese New Year, what the latest Container Trade Statistics reveal about global demand, and why North America continues to lag the rest of the world.

They also explore escalating geopolitical risks — from Iran and the Strait of Hormuz to Greenland and terminal ownership — and what these flashpoints could mean for global shipping lanes, capacity, and pricing. Finally, the conversation returns to a familiar conclusion: volatility isn’t going away, and understanding the gap between quoted and paid rates is becoming more critical than ever.

A timely look at what’s shaping early 2026 — and why shippers should stay alert.

In this 2025 year-end review, Caroline, Lars, and Don Davis reflect on a year defined by tariff whiplash, uneven demand, and persistent gaps between quoted vs. paid spot rates. They also look ahead to 2026, where the base case remains continued volatility—with the Red Sea/Suez question, shifting capacity, and geopolitics keeping markets on edge.

Key themes covered:

• Why 2025 ended “mixed”: SCFI up while paid, loaded spot rates stayed uneven
• How tariffs reshaped shipper behavior toward more just-in-time ordering and priority services
• Don’s view from ZIM: strong and growing interest in index-linked contracts, including first-time adopters asking how structures work
• The outlook for 2026 rate volatility: continued big swings driven by uncertainty, capacity rebalancing, and potential routing changes

A clear wrap on what defined 2025—and what could make 2026 even harder to forecast!

Global shipping enters another volatile week. Caroline, Lars, and guest Michael Wray of Ocean Network Express (ONE) unpack rate swings across key trades, shifting sourcing strategies, Mexico’s new China tariffs, Red Sea uncertainty, and a surge in maritime risk incidents—from border conflicts to tanker seizures.

In this episode:

• NYFI trends across Asia–Europe and the Pacific
• Why 20’ > 40’ pricing persists on TA eastbound
• The slowdown in Asia–Europe demand
• Mexico’s new tariffs on China
• Red Sea ceasefire signals & alliance decision-making
• Rising maritime risks in the Black Sea, Hormuz, and Southeast Asia
• Northern Sea Route reality vs. media hype
• The latest on ONE Henry Hudson

Clear, fast insight into the forces shaping 2026.

This week, Caroline and Lars break down another volatile shift in the market — from weakening global demand to unusual rate distortions and rising geopolitical risks.

In this episode:

• NYFI loaded spot rates for Asia–North Europe and the Pacific
• A rare 20′ > 40′ price inversion on TA Eastbound
• Global demand dropping sharply — and why Asia–Europe is the culprit
• Tariff investigations and the impact on food imports
• Renewed Thailand–Cambodia tensions and supply chain rerouting
• A vessel attack in Bab el-Mandeb — but not the kind you think
• What a return to the Red Sea would do to TEU miles and capacity

A fast, focused update for shippers, NVOs, and anyone watching the 2026 outlook.

This week on Supply Chain Secrets, Caroline Weaver and Lars Jensen are joined by Sagil Capital Partner Mark Hendricks to break down how freight rate volatility is affecting both shippers and investors. 

They cover the latest NYFI and SCFI movements, widening differences between sub-trades, the newest global reliability numbers, and updates on the ONE Henry Hudson and Red Sea routing. Mark shares how equity investors value shipping companies in unstable markets and why futures and hedging tools matter as 2026 looks increasingly unpredictable.

In this episode:

• Rate swings across Pacific and East Coast trades
• How investors model volatility in shipping equities
• Why futures and hedging could lower financing risk
• Updates on reliability, general average, and Red Sea traffic

A fast, digestible look at the forces shaping container shipping and financial markets heading into 2026.