Rates are up, down, and sideways depending on origin, equipment, and trade lane — but beneath the noise, a clear forward signal is emerging: 2026 contract levels look set to decline. Lars and Caroline walk through the extreme pricing divergence across Asia and why the Trans-Pacific feels like multiple markets stitched together.

Here’s what we break down this week:

• The $25 drop vs. $700 jump in 20-foot rates depending on origin
• Why the Trans-Pacific is splitting into multiple micro-markets
• South America’s sharp rate collapse and what it signals
• The Red Sea reopening wildcard and the contract risks shippers are missing
• The tariff updates that matter — and the ones that don’t
• Why Hapag-Lloyd gained volume without giving up rate
• What carrier Q3 results reveal about next year’s landscape

For shippers and NVOs planning 2026, this episode delivers the clearest read yet on where the market is headed.

Rates are dropping, pirates are reappearing, and demand is diverging across the globe. In this episode, Lars Jensen and Caroline Weaver unpack what last week’s NYSHEX London event revealed about market volatility — and why the container industry’s “old normal” isn’t coming back.

They cover:

• Sir Richard Dearlove’s surprising optimism on the Red Sea crisis
• Why NYFI data shows loaded spot rates collapsing again
• The widening gap between 20’ and 40’ rates
• What’s behind North America’s lagging demand
• And yes — the return of Somali piracy.

Because in container shipping, stability isn’t the new normal — adaptability is.

Container shipping just won’t sit still.

This week, Caroline Weaver and Lars Jensen unpack the latest volatility across global trades — from Pacific spot rates showing strange regional “vibrations,” to a 20–30% capacity surge on the transatlantic that’s pushing rates to decade lows.

They also break down the temporary pause in the U.S.–China trade war — what it really means for importers heading into 2026 — and why a new uptick in Somali piracy adds one more layer of complexity to an already unsettled market.

Topics include:

• Pacific rate patterns after Golden Week
• MSC’s mega-vessels reshaping the Atlantic
• The U.S.–China tariff “ceasefire” and its 12-month deadline
• Renewed piracy risks off East Africa

Freight rates might look like they’re holding steady — but when you adjust for inflation, the real story tells a very different tale.

In this week’s Supply Chain Secrets, Caroline Weaver and Lars Jensen break down why inflation-adjusted freight rates on major trade lanes have quietly slipped below pre-pandemic levels, even as indices like the SCFI show nominal increases.

They also discuss how politically charged tariffs are blurring the line between trade policy and politics, and why a single Caribbean port closure could trigger ripple effects across the Americas.

🎙️ In This Episode:

• Why inflation makes “stable” rates a hidden discount for shippers
• SCFI vs. NYFI: What’s really happening in loaded cargo rates
• The growing role of politics in U.S. trade policy
• Regional risks: how weather and regulation shape reliability
• What shippers should watch in the months ahead

What happens when AWS failures disable your Stop Recording button?

You let Lars Jensen keep talking — and you get one of the most in-depth updates yet. 

In this week’s Supply Chain Secrets, Caroline Weaver and Lars unpack:

• Why IMO’s “Net Zero” framework just became a zombie proposal,
• How that decision could stall billions in green-fuel investment,
• Why spot-rate spikes may be more sentiment than substance, and
• The latest on the Red Sea ceasefire and tariff tension between the U.S. and China.

This episode proves that when you can’t stop recording, you might just capture your best conversation yet.

Tariff whiplash, “China’s USTR,” and a carbon levy vote—yet spot rates look oddly calm. Caroline Weaver and Lars Jensen cut through the chaos: Trump’s 100% tariff warning vs. the Nov 10 tariff snap-back, China’s mirror policy (including the 25% ownership twist), and last-minute U.S. duties on ship-to-shore cranes (with 150% proposed on terminal gear). 

We also unpack why Trans-Pac spot rates paid are at ~12-month lows despite $3k GRI filings, and what CTS load-date demand says about where volumes are really headed.

What you’ll learn:

• How (and whether) to front-load, and what carriers’ GRI filings signal vs. what’s likely to stick
• The operational ripple effects of China’s mirror rules—beyond US–China lanes
• MEPC carbon levy timing (2027 processes, 2028 payments), plus U.S. retaliation talk and practical impact
• Playbook: procurement timing for port equipment, contract/GRI strategy, and communicating risk to your CFO

Actionable guidance in under 30 minutes—so you can protect margins before the next headline hits.

In this week’s Supply Chain Secrets podcast, hosts Caroline Weaver and Lars Jensen unpack the latest developments shaping container shipping and global trade.

Lars calls in from Curaçao with an update on freight rates across the Pacific and how carriers’ blank sailings are reshaping capacity as Golden Week slows volumes. He dives into the USTR’s new restrictions on Chinese-owned vessels — and how China’s maritime legislation hints at potential retaliation against U.S. shipping interests.

The episode also explores:

• Why “booked vs. shipped” rates can tell two very different stories — and how indices like NYFI reveal what’s actually moving in the market
• How the IMO’s new charcoal transport regulations aim to prevent vessel fires
• The latest on Red Sea security after another Houthi attack on a Dutch multipurpose vessel, and the EU’s ongoing Operation Aspides response

Packed with context, clarity, and real-world insights, this episode breaks down how data, policy, and geopolitics continue to collide across the global supply chain.

The latest Supply Chain Secrets dives into the widening gap between quoted rates and what’s actually paid. Lars Jensen explains how the NYFI reveals a “phantom peak” that never materialized on the Trans-Pacific, the sharp declines on Asia–South America, and why Golden Week isn’t offering carriers relief.

We also break down Trump’s tariff announcements, what the upcoming USTR fees mean for carriers (and how Seaspan and Hede Shipping are reacting), and look ahead at the vessel order book and why 2027 could mark the bottom of the cycle.

In this episode of Supply Chain Secrets, Caroline Weaver and Lars Jensen break down the latest volatility in container shipping. Asia–Europe rates continue their seasonal slide, while the Pacific faces a dramatic collapse in demand just as carriers push blank sailings. 

Lars explains why the gap between quoted and paid spot rates matters, why blank sailings may slow—but not stop—rate erosion, and how Golden Week timing is shaping strategy. 

The conversation also covers the looming U.S.–China tariff pause deadline, MEPC decarbonization politics, and CMA-CGM’s latest move in intermodal rail.

In this week’s episode of Supply Chain Secrets, Caroline Weaver and Lars Jensen break down the latest shifts across major trades.

• Asia–Europe: Spot rates dip below spring levels, but Lars explains why it’s not yet a full collapse.
• Trans-Pacific: A striking bifurcation—rates out of Southeast Asia/China erode while Northeast Asia (Korea, Japan) surges by $500/FEU.
• Atlantic: After months of stability, head-haul rates slide from $1,800 to $1,500 per FEU.
• Capacity Updates: Carriers move beyond blank sailings, with Gemini canceling an entire service for Q1 2025.
• Tariff Watch: Mexico considers hikes on Chinese imports, raising the specter of retaliation.
• Safety & Compliance: Nearly 11% of cargo is misdeclared—new AI initiatives aim to reduce fires, accidents, and container losses.

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