Supply Chain Secrets

Asia to North Europe rates are still falling, Transpacific rates keep climbing, and the gap between the two lanes is at a record high. With the data and the market narrative pointing in different directions, the new NYFI options contracts on Asia to North Europe and Asia to USWC arrive at the right moment.

In this episode, Lars Jensen and Rich Heath are joined by Peter Stallion of Clarksons to cover:

• Why the port congestion story doesn't fit low blank sailing levels or falling Asia to North Europe rates
• The record arbitrage between the two lanes, and a USWC 10 to 90% spread hovering near $2,000 per 40'
• How call and put options work, how they differ from futures, and who sells them
• Using options and futures in 2027 European tenders, and why going unhedged is the real gamble

Plus: Red Sea normalization, escalating Hormuz attacks, and the stalled Hapag-Lloyd and ZIM deal.

Port congestion is now absorbing 8.5% of the global container fleet, roughly four times the pre-pandemic norm, and it may not clear before the Chinese New Year peak. On NYFI, Asia to US East Coast rates sit at an all-time high, with rates to both US coasts still climbing.

In this episode, Lars Jensen and Rich Heath cover:

• Why congestion could push Asia-Europe rates up just as shippers negotiate 2027 contracts in the European tender season
• What last week's upward shift in NYFI futures says about how long the market expects tight capacity to last
• The October 5 launch of NYFI options contracts on ICE Futures Europe, with a deeper dive next week alongside Peter Stallion of Clarksons
• How an orderbook approaching 43% could bring more consolidation and more competition at the same time

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Pacific rates on both U.S. coasts are near 2024 levels, and the data Lars Jensen reviews points to carrier capacity management as the driver.
In this episode, Lars Jensen and Rich Heath cover:

• How Pacific vessel utilization has shifted upward since before the pandemic, and what that means for rates
• More Gemini and MSC services returning to Suez routing, and who carries the risk if the Red Sea situation deteriorates
• Hormuz, where container cargo is moving by land-bridge corridors while bunker fuel prices climb
• Maersk's order for 26 vessels and the carrier positioning game heading into the 2030s

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Rich Heath, NYSHEX's VP of Financial Products, joins Lars Jensen as the new co-host this week, stepping in as Caroline Weaver moves on to her next chapter. And there's plenty to dig into on his first episode.

In this episode, Lars Jensen and Rich Heath cover:

• Why Asia-US East Coast rates jumped roughly $700/FEU even as North American import demand grew just 1% year-on-year, pointing to capacity, not demand, as the driver
• New CTS data showing global trade grew 4.5% in July, and would have been closer to 8% without an estimated 3.7 million TEU of demand lost to the Hormuz Strait crisis since March
• Red Sea normalization now at 27% of Asia-Europe capacity, and the new risk building in Yemen as Houthi territorial gains give them more leverage over shipping access
• How the futures market is pricing 2027 Asia-Europe tenders, and where shippers may be missing an opportunity to lock in rates ahead of peak season

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This week's Supply Chain Secrets doubles as Caroline Weaver's send off as co-host, and she goes out with the market question everyone's been asking: why have Pacific spot rates gone so volatile? 

In this episode, Lars Jensen and Caroline Weaver cover:

• Why June and July cargo data show no demand boom on the Pacific, and why the recent spot rate spikes are capacity driven instead
• How the Asia-Europe rate cooldown is following a normal seasonal pattern this time, backed by genuine demand growth
• Escalation in the Strait of Hormuz and new attacks on container vessels in the Black Sea
• Why direct port to port service is less commoditized across alliances than most shippers assume

Thank you to Caroline for your energy and insights on the show! 

And, don't worry listeners. The show will go on! 

Rich Heath, NYSHEX's VP of Financial Products, takes over alongside Lars Jensen starting next week. 

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Ocean carrier reliability just hit its lowest point since before the current alliance structure took effect, with typhoon-driven port congestion in Asia dragging Shanghai down to just 21% on-time arrivals in July.

In this episode, Lars Jensen and Caroline Weaver cover:

• Global vessel reliability at 56% for July, and the 40 percentage point gap separating Gemini's 89.5% from Premier Alliance's sub-50% performance
• NYFI's Asia-US sub-lane data, including Northeast Asia's role as a swing capacity market and a fresh split between US East and West Coast rates
• Suez Canal normalization now at 19% of Asia-Europe capacity, and what it means for demand growth if that reaches 50%
• A reopened split between 20-foot and 40-foot rates on the Trans-Atlantic Westbound lane, plus Q4 bunker and emissions surcharge changes

New restrictions from the Panama Canal Authority are cutting daily transits starting in September, well ahead of the Chinese New Year peak season shippers depend on that route to serve.

In this episode, Lars Jensen and Caroline Weaver cover:

• Why the canal authority is acting early, and what a 34% drop in rain inflow to Lake Gatun means for shippers who haven't built contingency plans
• A Transpacific market sending mixed signals: Southeast Asia rates spiking, Northeast Asia to US East Coast rates dropping almost 30% in a week, and a rate spread on Asia-US East Coast now as wide as it was at the summer peak
• Updates on the Red Sea, the Strait of Hormuz standoff with Iran, and the new US-Canada tariff breakdown
• Why the Northern Sea Route remains more hype than real capacity, and where FMC Chairman Laura DiBella's net zero framework comments leave the November IMO vote

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Pacific spot rates are flatlining on average, but the spread between the highest and lowest payers just hit its widest point in months, a sign the market has no real conviction on where this goes next. Lars Jensen and Caroline Weaver break down what's actually driving ocean freight this week.

In this episode, Lars Jensen and Caroline Weaver cover:

• Asia-USWC/USEC spreads widening sharply while average rates hold flat, and what that phantom GRI risk means for shippers
• NOAA's latest El Niño forecast for the Panama Canal and the draft restrictions likely coming this fall
• Red Sea normalization update as more carriers shift back to Suez routing
• The order book math: why fleet growth may already be outpacing true demand, and what that means for capacity heading into 2027 and 2028

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NYFI held flat for a fourth straight week, and the June CTS data explains why the Transpacific demand story isn't what the headlines suggest.

In this episode, Lars Jensen and Caroline Weaver cover:

• Why NYFI and SCFI track different things by design (SCFI is a forward-looking quote, NYFI reflects cargo already loaded), and how to spot a phantom GRI before you pay for one
• June CTS data showing Transpacific demand and capacity both flat year over year, while Asia-Europe, Asia-South America, and Asia-Africa post double-digit growth
• Red Sea normalization signals: OOCL's new Bab el-Mandeb service and Maersk/Hapag-Lloyd shifting the AE15 and AE19 Gemini services back to Suez
• Panama Canal draft cuts ahead of El Niño, plus low water on the Rhine and Amazon squeezing inland moves

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Ocean freight rates are past peak season on the Transpacific and Asia-North Europe, but a widening gap between the NYFI and SCFI on Asia-US West Coast is raising questions about which number actually reflects the market.

In this episode, Lars Jensen and Caroline Weaver cover:

• Why NYFI and SCFI measure fundamentally different things, and how to spot a "phantom GRI" before it costs you
• What index-linked contracts actually protect you from, and how to pick the right index for your business
• The current East Coast/West Coast rate divergence and what's driving it
• Escalating Middle East shipping risk, including the attack on tankers in Damietta, and why carrier profits aren't proof of market manipulation

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