In this 2025 year-end review, Caroline, Lars, and Don Davis reflect on a year defined by tariff whiplash, uneven demand, and persistent gaps between quoted vs. paid spot rates. They also look ahead to 2026, where the base case remains continued volatility—with the Red Sea/Suez question, shifting capacity, and geopolitics keeping markets on edge.

Key themes covered:

• Why 2025 ended “mixed”: SCFI up while paid, loaded spot rates stayed uneven
• How tariffs reshaped shipper behavior toward more just-in-time ordering and priority services
• Don’s view from ZIM: strong and growing interest in index-linked contracts, including first-time adopters asking how structures work
• The outlook for 2026 rate volatility: continued big swings driven by uncertainty, capacity rebalancing, and potential routing changes

A clear wrap on what defined 2025—and what could make 2026 even harder to forecast!

Global shipping enters another volatile week. Caroline, Lars, and guest Michael Wray of Ocean Network Express (ONE) unpack rate swings across key trades, shifting sourcing strategies, Mexico’s new China tariffs, Red Sea uncertainty, and a surge in maritime risk incidents—from border conflicts to tanker seizures.

In this episode:

• NYFI trends across Asia–Europe and the Pacific
• Why 20’ > 40’ pricing persists on TA eastbound
• The slowdown in Asia–Europe demand
• Mexico’s new tariffs on China
• Red Sea ceasefire signals & alliance decision-making
• Rising maritime risks in the Black Sea, Hormuz, and Southeast Asia
• Northern Sea Route reality vs. media hype
• The latest on ONE Henry Hudson

Clear, fast insight into the forces shaping 2026.

This week, Caroline and Lars break down another volatile shift in the market — from weakening global demand to unusual rate distortions and rising geopolitical risks.

In this episode:

• NYFI loaded spot rates for Asia–North Europe and the Pacific
• A rare 20′ > 40′ price inversion on TA Eastbound
• Global demand dropping sharply — and why Asia–Europe is the culprit
• Tariff investigations and the impact on food imports
• Renewed Thailand–Cambodia tensions and supply chain rerouting
• A vessel attack in Bab el-Mandeb — but not the kind you think
• What a return to the Red Sea would do to TEU miles and capacity

A fast, focused update for shippers, NVOs, and anyone watching the 2026 outlook.

This week on Supply Chain Secrets, Caroline Weaver and Lars Jensen are joined by Sagil Capital Partner Mark Hendricks to break down how freight rate volatility is affecting both shippers and investors. 

They cover the latest NYFI and SCFI movements, widening differences between sub-trades, the newest global reliability numbers, and updates on the ONE Henry Hudson and Red Sea routing. Mark shares how equity investors value shipping companies in unstable markets and why futures and hedging tools matter as 2026 looks increasingly unpredictable.

In this episode:

• Rate swings across Pacific and East Coast trades
• How investors model volatility in shipping equities
• Why futures and hedging could lower financing risk
• Updates on reliability, general average, and Red Sea traffic

A fast, digestible look at the forces shaping container shipping and financial markets heading into 2026.

Global container rates are sliding fast — and volatility is here to stay. In this week’s Supply Chain Secrets, Caroline and Lars break down what’s happening across key trades and what it means for shippers heading into 2026.

In this episode:

• NYFI and SCFI data showing sharp rate declines across Pacific and South American trades
• How new tools and freight rate derivatives can help manage volatility
• Import trends suggesting major inventory reductions across U.S. retail sectors
• A deep dive into the Los Angeles vessel fire — and why such incidents happen more often than you think
• The astonishing root cause behind the Baltimore bridge collapse: a mislabeled signal wire

It’s a rapid-fire rundown of the latest forces shaping global trade — from collapsing rates to structural risks — with analysis only Supply Chain Secrets can deliver.

Rates are up, down, and sideways depending on origin, equipment, and trade lane — but beneath the noise, a clear forward signal is emerging: 2026 contract levels look set to decline. Lars and Caroline walk through the extreme pricing divergence across Asia and why the Trans-Pacific feels like multiple markets stitched together.

Here’s what we break down this week:

• The $25 drop vs. $700 jump in 20-foot rates depending on origin
• Why the Trans-Pacific is splitting into multiple micro-markets
• South America’s sharp rate collapse and what it signals
• The Red Sea reopening wildcard and the contract risks shippers are missing
• The tariff updates that matter — and the ones that don’t
• Why Hapag-Lloyd gained volume without giving up rate
• What carrier Q3 results reveal about next year’s landscape

For shippers and NVOs planning 2026, this episode delivers the clearest read yet on where the market is headed.

Rates are dropping, pirates are reappearing, and demand is diverging across the globe. In this episode, Lars Jensen and Caroline Weaver unpack what last week’s NYSHEX London event revealed about market volatility — and why the container industry’s “old normal” isn’t coming back.

They cover:

• Sir Richard Dearlove’s surprising optimism on the Red Sea crisis
• Why NYFI data shows loaded spot rates collapsing again
• The widening gap between 20’ and 40’ rates
• What’s behind North America’s lagging demand
• And yes — the return of Somali piracy.

Because in container shipping, stability isn’t the new normal — adaptability is.

Container shipping just won’t sit still.

This week, Caroline Weaver and Lars Jensen unpack the latest volatility across global trades — from Pacific spot rates showing strange regional “vibrations,” to a 20–30% capacity surge on the transatlantic that’s pushing rates to decade lows.

They also break down the temporary pause in the U.S.–China trade war — what it really means for importers heading into 2026 — and why a new uptick in Somali piracy adds one more layer of complexity to an already unsettled market.

Topics include:

• Pacific rate patterns after Golden Week
• MSC’s mega-vessels reshaping the Atlantic
• The U.S.–China tariff “ceasefire” and its 12-month deadline
• Renewed piracy risks off East Africa

Freight rates might look like they’re holding steady — but when you adjust for inflation, the real story tells a very different tale.

In this week’s Supply Chain Secrets, Caroline Weaver and Lars Jensen break down why inflation-adjusted freight rates on major trade lanes have quietly slipped below pre-pandemic levels, even as indices like the SCFI show nominal increases.

They also discuss how politically charged tariffs are blurring the line between trade policy and politics, and why a single Caribbean port closure could trigger ripple effects across the Americas.

🎙️ In This Episode:

• Why inflation makes “stable” rates a hidden discount for shippers
• SCFI vs. NYFI: What’s really happening in loaded cargo rates
• The growing role of politics in U.S. trade policy
• Regional risks: how weather and regulation shape reliability
• What shippers should watch in the months ahead

What happens when AWS failures disable your Stop Recording button?

You let Lars Jensen keep talking — and you get one of the most in-depth updates yet. 

In this week’s Supply Chain Secrets, Caroline Weaver and Lars unpack:

• Why IMO’s “Net Zero” framework just became a zombie proposal,
• How that decision could stall billions in green-fuel investment,
• Why spot-rate spikes may be more sentiment than substance, and
• The latest on the Red Sea ceasefire and tariff tension between the U.S. and China.

This episode proves that when you can’t stop recording, you might just capture your best conversation yet.