Supply Chain Secrets

Asia-Europe spot rates have flattened at the bottom, yet new loading data shows demand growing far faster than rates suggest.

In this episode, Lars Jensen and Rich Heath cover:

• Why Asia-Europe rates have bottomed out with no real seasonal uptick yet, and how forward trading on Asia-North Europe moved lower over the past week
• The widening gap between Atlantic headhaul and backhaul rates as Eastbound demand weakens
• September Container Trade Statistics showing 8.4% global demand growth, 17% on the Transpacific and 21% on Asia-Europe, plus what Maersk’s Q3 volumes say about market share
• Red Sea services returning to Suez, no progress in the Strait of Hormuz, and new reported attacks on container ships in the Black Sea

Asia-Europe rates appear to have found their seasonal floor while security threats to shipping spread across three regions.

In this episode, Lars Jensen and Rich Heath cover:

-Why Lars reads Asia-Europe as bottomed out, and what the widening spread between high and low rates signals about a market turn
-Why the Transpacific is unlikely to see a seasonal decline before Chinese New Year, and how new services like ZIM’s ZX3 tend to follow high rates
-Hormuz land bridge limits, a widening Black Sea conflict, and renewed piracy in the Gulf of Aden
-The LA/LB watchmen strike threat and new consolidation among mid-size carriers

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NYFI adds two new indices this week, Asia-Mediterranean and Asia-US Gulf, as Asia-Med rates post their first increase in some time.

In this episode, Lars Jensen and Rich Heath cover:

• Asia-Med’s turn, and whether the Europe trades have found a floor
• Red Sea normalization at 60% of Asia-Europe capacity, with the Med well ahead of North Europe, and why “normal” can still include sailings around Africa
• Why services returning to Suez free up global capacity without adding weekly capacity on Asia-Europe
• An orderbook near 47% of the fleet, 1.3 million TEU ordered by the top 10 carriers in two months, and what it could mean for vessel sizes on the Transpacific

Plus: Gemini slips below MSC on schedule reliability, and a new round of US tariffs on Canadian goods.

Transpacific spreads are tightening as the summer rally flattens, while risk in the Strait of Hormuz climbs.

In this episode, Lars Jensen and Rich Heath cover:

• Why the narrowing Asia-USWC spread, now about $1,500 per 40-foot, points to growing certainty on price
• How carriers prioritizing China loads squeeze space for Korea and Japan cargo, driving sharp swings on Northeast Asia to USEC
• Four container ships hit near Hormuz, one sunk, as Gemini’s new Suez service moves Red Sea routings closer to normal
• HMM’s new order lifting its orderbook to 32% of fleet, still one of the smallest among the top 16 carriers

Plus: tariff whiplash, an FMC proposal targeting Spanish imports, and a hacker group’s extortion claims against 34 maritime organizations.

Transpacific rates appear to have peaked, Asia to North Europe keeps sliding toward a floor, and the risk picture across the Middle East is getting harder to plan around.

In this episode, Lars Jensen and Rich Heath cover:

• Signs of a Transpacific peak, with USWC easing and USEC flattening, and the steady Asia to North Europe decline since July
• August demand data: Asia-Europe down 1.7% year on year while the Transpacific grew 10.8%, and why neither trade fits a simple weak or strong label
• Iranian attacks well beyond the Strait of Hormuz, Houthi strikes deep into Saudi Arabia, and what shippers can do when rerouting is out of their control
• Africa's import growth, OOCL's Q3 results, Asia to East Coast South America service changes, and El Niño risk at the Panama Canal

Asia to North Europe rates are still falling, Transpacific rates keep climbing, and the gap between the two lanes is at a record high. With the data and the market narrative pointing in different directions, the new NYFI options contracts on Asia to North Europe and Asia to USWC arrive at the right moment.

In this episode, Lars Jensen and Rich Heath are joined by Peter Stallion of Clarksons to cover:

• Why the port congestion story doesn't fit low blank sailing levels or falling Asia to North Europe rates
• The record arbitrage between the two lanes, and a USWC 10 to 90% spread hovering near $2,000 per 40'
• How call and put options work, how they differ from futures, and who sells them
• Using options and futures in 2027 European tenders, and why going unhedged is the real gamble

Plus: Red Sea normalization, escalating Hormuz attacks, and the stalled Hapag-Lloyd and ZIM deal.

Port congestion is now absorbing 8.5% of the global container fleet, roughly four times the pre-pandemic norm, and it may not clear before the Chinese New Year peak. On NYFI, Asia to US East Coast rates sit at an all-time high, with rates to both US coasts still climbing.

In this episode, Lars Jensen and Rich Heath cover:

• Why congestion could push Asia-Europe rates up just as shippers negotiate 2027 contracts in the European tender season
• What last week's upward shift in NYFI futures says about how long the market expects tight capacity to last
• The October 5 launch of NYFI options contracts on ICE Futures Europe, with a deeper dive next week alongside Peter Stallion of Clarksons
• How an orderbook approaching 43% could bring more consolidation and more competition at the same time

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Pacific rates on both U.S. coasts are near 2024 levels, and the data Lars Jensen reviews points to carrier capacity management as the driver.
In this episode, Lars Jensen and Rich Heath cover:

• How Pacific vessel utilization has shifted upward since before the pandemic, and what that means for rates
• More Gemini and MSC services returning to Suez routing, and who carries the risk if the Red Sea situation deteriorates
• Hormuz, where container cargo is moving by land-bridge corridors while bunker fuel prices climb
• Maersk's order for 26 vessels and the carrier positioning game heading into the 2030s

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Rich Heath, NYSHEX's VP of Financial Products, joins Lars Jensen as the new co-host this week, stepping in as Caroline Weaver moves on to her next chapter. And there's plenty to dig into on his first episode.

In this episode, Lars Jensen and Rich Heath cover:

• Why Asia-US East Coast rates jumped roughly $700/FEU even as North American import demand grew just 1% year-on-year, pointing to capacity, not demand, as the driver
• New CTS data showing global trade grew 4.5% in July, and would have been closer to 8% without an estimated 3.7 million TEU of demand lost to the Hormuz Strait crisis since March
• Red Sea normalization now at 27% of Asia-Europe capacity, and the new risk building in Yemen as Houthi territorial gains give them more leverage over shipping access
• How the futures market is pricing 2027 Asia-Europe tenders, and where shippers may be missing an opportunity to lock in rates ahead of peak season

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This week's Supply Chain Secrets doubles as Caroline Weaver's send off as co-host, and she goes out with the market question everyone's been asking: why have Pacific spot rates gone so volatile? 

In this episode, Lars Jensen and Caroline Weaver cover:

• Why June and July cargo data show no demand boom on the Pacific, and why the recent spot rate spikes are capacity driven instead
• How the Asia-Europe rate cooldown is following a normal seasonal pattern this time, backed by genuine demand growth
• Escalation in the Strait of Hormuz and new attacks on container vessels in the Black Sea
• Why direct port to port service is less commoditized across alliances than most shippers assume

Thank you to Caroline for your energy and insights on the show! 

And, don't worry listeners. The show will go on! 

Rich Heath, NYSHEX's VP of Financial Products, takes over alongside Lars Jensen starting next week. 

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