Ocean carrier reliability just hit its lowest point since before the current alliance structure took effect, with typhoon-driven port congestion in Asia dragging Shanghai down to just 21% on-time arrivals in July.

In this episode, Lars Jensen and Caroline Weaver cover:

• Global vessel reliability at 56% for July, and the 40 percentage point gap separating Gemini's 89.5% from Premier Alliance's sub-50% performance
• NYFI's Asia-US sub-lane data, including Northeast Asia's role as a swing capacity market and a fresh split between US East and West Coast rates
• Suez Canal normalization now at 19% of Asia-Europe capacity, and what it means for demand growth if that reaches 50%
• A reopened split between 20-foot and 40-foot rates on the Trans-Atlantic Westbound lane, plus Q4 bunker and emissions surcharge changes

New restrictions from the Panama Canal Authority are cutting daily transits starting in September, well ahead of the Chinese New Year peak season shippers depend on that route to serve.

In this episode, Lars Jensen and Caroline Weaver cover:

• Why the canal authority is acting early, and what a 34% drop in rain inflow to Lake Gatun means for shippers who haven't built contingency plans
• A Transpacific market sending mixed signals: Southeast Asia rates spiking, Northeast Asia to US East Coast rates dropping almost 30% in a week, and a rate spread on Asia-US East Coast now as wide as it was at the summer peak
• Updates on the Red Sea, the Strait of Hormuz standoff with Iran, and the new US-Canada tariff breakdown
• Why the Northern Sea Route remains more hype than real capacity, and where FMC Chairman Laura DiBella's net zero framework comments leave the November IMO vote

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Pacific spot rates are flatlining on average, but the spread between the highest and lowest payers just hit its widest point in months, a sign the market has no real conviction on where this goes next. Lars Jensen and Caroline Weaver break down what's actually driving ocean freight this week.

In this episode, Lars Jensen and Caroline Weaver cover:

• Asia-USWC/USEC spreads widening sharply while average rates hold flat, and what that phantom GRI risk means for shippers
• NOAA's latest El Niño forecast for the Panama Canal and the draft restrictions likely coming this fall
• Red Sea normalization update as more carriers shift back to Suez routing
• The order book math: why fleet growth may already be outpacing true demand, and what that means for capacity heading into 2027 and 2028

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NYFI held flat for a fourth straight week, and the June CTS data explains why the Transpacific demand story isn't what the headlines suggest.

In this episode, Lars Jensen and Caroline Weaver cover:

• Why NYFI and SCFI track different things by design (SCFI is a forward-looking quote, NYFI reflects cargo already loaded), and how to spot a phantom GRI before you pay for one
• June CTS data showing Transpacific demand and capacity both flat year over year, while Asia-Europe, Asia-South America, and Asia-Africa post double-digit growth
• Red Sea normalization signals: OOCL's new Bab el-Mandeb service and Maersk/Hapag-Lloyd shifting the AE15 and AE19 Gemini services back to Suez
• Panama Canal draft cuts ahead of El Niño, plus low water on the Rhine and Amazon squeezing inland moves

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Ocean freight rates are past peak season on the Transpacific and Asia-North Europe, but a widening gap between the NYFI and SCFI on Asia-US West Coast is raising questions about which number actually reflects the market.

In this episode, Lars Jensen and Caroline Weaver cover:

• Why NYFI and SCFI measure fundamentally different things, and how to spot a "phantom GRI" before it costs you
• What index-linked contracts actually protect you from, and how to pick the right index for your business
• The current East Coast/West Coast rate divergence and what's driving it
• Escalating Middle East shipping risk, including the attack on tankers in Damietta, and why carrier profits aren't proof of market manipulation

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Global schedule reliability slipped again in June, and the gap between carrier alliances is now too wide to ignore.

In this episode, Lars Jensen and Caroline Weaver cover:

• June reliability data: global on-time performance down to 63% from 65% in May, holding well below pre-pandemic norms for months running
• The alliance breakdown: Gemini at 93.4%, its best showing since launch, versus MSC around 80%, Ocean Alliance around 70%, and Premier Alliance down near 55%
• How Sea-Intelligence actually measures reliability, including the three to four week lock-in window and why plus/minus one calendar day is the right yardstick, not the wrong one
• NYFI this week: Asia-USWC down 1% to $5,818, Asia-USEC up 7% to $7,793, driven by a capacity split between the two coasts, and Asia-NEUR down 3% at $4,797.

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Ocean freight this week is a study in divergence: Pacific rates are splitting by coast, Asia-Europe spreads are widening, and a new blockade declaration just widened the Middle East risk map. Even Lars's connection from France needed a reroute this week: his audio came through rough enough that part of the episode runs on AI voiceover instead. Turns out signal disruption isn't just a shipping lane problem.

In this episode, Lars Jensen and Caroline Weaver cover:

• Why Northeast Asia is pushing USWC rates up 14.6% while pulling USEC rates down 1.6%, in the same week
• The Houthis' newly declared blockade on Saudi Arabia, and why it threatens the last working bypass route around the Strait of Hormuz
• Rising bunker costs, a new 25% Section 301 tariff on Brazil, and a US inventory picture that Lars calls "walking on a knife edge"
• Low water surcharges now hitting the St. Lawrence Seaway, the Rhine, and the Amazon, all at once

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President Trump says he'll charge a 20% toll on cargo transiting the Strait of Hormuz. Lars Jensen ran the numbers, and they don't hold up.

In this episode, Lars Jensen and Caroline Weaver cover:

• The math behind why a 20% Hormuz toll could work out to record freight rate highs, and why no shipper would pay it.
• Who would even be billed, and why the US has no realistic way to collect if a carrier just refuses.
• Seven attacks on commercial vessels in the Strait of Hormuz this week alone, and what "open" actually means when ships are still getting hit.
• Asia-USWC rates flatten, but the shipper-to-shipper spread nearly tripled in a month.
• Maersk extends its Suez return with two more services despite the Hormuz risk.

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Pacific spot rates are holding flat while futures signal the peak may already be over, and Maersk and Hapag-Lloyd just made a move that could mark the beginning of a Red Sea normalization after two and a half years of disruption.

In this episode, Lars Jensen and Caroline Weaver cover:

• Why Asia-USWC rates are flatlining around $5,200 while the futures curve still points sharply lower, and what that means for the rest of July
• The Gemini alliance's AE15 service switching back to Suez routing and what it signals about carrier confidence in Red Sea stability
• Panama Canal draft restrictions tightening through August as El Niño risk grows, and what history says about the ceiling on disruption
• Maersk's upward earnings revision and why it says more about Maersk's earlier pessimism than the overall market
• USMCA uncertainty and what a US pullback could mean for deeply intertwined North American supply chains
• EU shipping emissions data: container vessels down 6.7% per TEU year over year, even as total emissions remain elevated versus 2023 due to Red Sea rerouting

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Transpacific spot rates are skyrocketing while Asia-North Europe tells a completely different story, and the Strait of Hormuz remains closed to most container traffic after a week of missile exchanges between Iran and the US.

In this episode, Lars Jensen and Caroline Weaver cover:

• Why Asia-US West Coast spot rates are approaching East Coast levels and what that historically signals about market instability
• What the $1,600 gap between current Pacific spot rates and July futures is telling the market
• The latest in the Hormuz crisis, including the attack on the Ever Lovely and what the "evacuation" language from IMO actually means for container shipping
• Port connectivity winners and losers: how Khor Fakkan, Fujairah, and Sharjah are absorbing volume while Gulf ports go dark
• Tariff uncertainty heading into July 24, when Section 122 tariffs expire with no clear successor

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