Supply Chain Secrets

Back from TPM, the team dives into the biggest forces reshaping ocean shipping right now.

This week’s episode covers:

• Demand data and a widening imbalance on Asia to Europe, plus what that means for headhaul pricing
• How parcel and DTC trade lanes are shifting as brands rethink sourcing and resilience
• The latest on IEEPA being ruled unlawful, what “refunds” might actually mean, and why the importer of record matters
• Section 122 tariffs, the 150 day clock, and what comes next
• The Strait of Hormuz disruption, end-of-voyage declarations, cargo being discharged at alternate ports, and the surge of emergency surcharges
• Why some fuel surcharges risk being blunt, not trade-specific, and potentially duplicative for shippers already paying variable fuel mechanisms
• How index-linked contracts and freight derivatives can help manage exposure when markets reprice fast

Recorded live during TPM26 in Long Beach, this episode breaks down the rapidly escalating situation involving Iran and what it means for ocean shipping immediately. Lars Jensen walks through the on-the-ground implications for the Strait of Hormuz and the ripple effects that can spread congestion and rate spikes far beyond the Middle East.

The team also explains why “Phantom GRIs” show up in quote-based indices, what that means for contract negotiations, and why transaction-based indices like NYFI can help separate market sentiment from what shippers actually pay.

Finally, NYSHEX CEO Gordon Downes joins to outline how index-linked contracts and hedging tools can help shippers and NVOCCs manage structural volatility, including practical first steps and how to get started.

This week’s Supply Chain Secrets focuses squarely on tariff volatility and what it means for global trade.

The Supreme Court overturns IEEPA tariffs. A new blanket tariff is introduced days later. Hundreds of commodity-level exemptions are published. Refund pathways remain unclear. The trade environment shifted dramatically within 72 hours.

Lars walks through what is actually in effect, what remains in place under Sections 301 and 232, and why the current policy landscape makes forward planning extraordinarily difficult.

Beyond tariffs, we cover:

• Post Chinese New Year rate declines across the Pacific and Asia-Europe
• Why Pacific spreads are tightening and what that signals about market certainty
• Reliability reaching a six-year high
• CMA-CGM’s apparent new Japan-to-North Europe service
• What this means for TPM contract negotiations

If you are managing exposure, negotiating contracts, or trying to interpret conflicting market signals, this episode provides structured clarity in a chaotic week.

This week’s Supply Chain Secrets is jam-packed. Lars Jensen and Caroline Weaver dig into sharp post–Chinese New Year moves: loaded spot rates falling faster than expected, spreads tightening across Pacific trades, and what that means for market certainty. We unpack carrier results, network changes from Ocean Alliance’s “Day 10,” and real operational risk in the Red Sea return.

The headline story: Hapag-Lloyd’s agreement to acquire most of ZIM’s fleet: what it means for Gemini, MSC, and competitive dynamics in the Transpacific and beyond. Lars breaks down why the deal matters strategically (fleet composition, charter vs. owned tonnage, and network implications), and why shippers, NVOCCs and carriers should be watching service reshuffles closely this contract season.

If you want data-forward insight into where rates are actually moving, how to read market spreads (not just headlines), and what consolidation means for your routing and negotiation strategy — press play.

Freight markets are turning earlier—and faster—than seasonal patterns would suggest. In this episode of Supply Chain Secrets, Caroline Weaver and Lars Jensen unpack why Pacific spot rates are collapsing well ahead of Chinese New Year, how this downturn compares to historical seasonality, and what that means for carriers and shippers alike.

Lars also introduces a deeper way to look at the market: not just the headline rate, but the spread around it. Using real NYFI data, he explains how wide or narrow spreads reveal market uncertainty, negotiating power, and whether shippers are truly “in market.”

The conversation then shifts to the latest on tariffs, global demand bifurcation, carrier earnings, and early steps toward a Red Sea reopening, including Gemini network moves and what a gradual return could look like in practice.

A data-driven look at where the market is weakening, where risk remains, and how alignment—not headlines—matters most heading deeper into 2026.

Rates are rolling over earlier than expected, and the gap between quoted and paid freight rates is widening again.

In this episode of Supply Chain Secrets, Caroline Weaver and Lars Jensen break down what’s driving the post–Chinese New Year slowdown, why quoted spot rates tend to exaggerate both peaks and troughs, and what that means for shippers heading into contract season. Lars also shares a concrete example showing how index choice alone can materially change freight costs—especially when proxies are used instead of actual loaded-rate data.

The conversation then turns to trade policy and geopolitics, including fresh tariff threats, the EU–India trade deal, Q4 carrier earnings, Panama Canal developments, and renewed uncertainty in the Red Sea.

For anyone planning budgets, contracts, or capacity in 2026, this episode offers timely perspective on where the market may head next—and where hidden risk still lives.

Freight markets are turning earlier than usual. In this episode of Supply Chain Secrets, Caroline Weaver and Lars Jensen break down sharp declines in quoted rates, early signs that the Chinese New Year peak has already passed, and what actual paid spot rates are signaling across key trades.

Lars also walks through a real-world example showing how choosing the wrong index in an index-linked contract can materially impact costs, underscoring why detail matters as indexing gains traction. The conversation then turns to tariffs and the Red Sea, where new signals—from carrier routing decisions to a fresh Houthi warning—suggest risk may not be fully behind us yet.

A practical discussion on what shippers should watch as volatility continues into 2026.

As 2026 gets underway, early signals are already diverging. In this episode of Supply Chain Secrets, Caroline Weaver and Lars Jensen are joined by Matthew Chicalace of Hellmann Worldwide Logistics to break down the growing gap between quoted and paid rates, early NYFI movements post–Chinese New Year, and what those signals really say about the market.

The conversation also dives into rising interest in index-linked contracts, how forwarders and carriers are approaching contract season, and why volatility remains structural. Finally, Lars unpacks the latest developments around the Red Sea reopening, geopolitical risks tied to Iran and Greenland, and how quickly trade lanes could shift again in 2026.

A timely discussion on how shippers are navigating uncertainty—and why flexibility and alignment matter more than ever.

As 2026 gets underway, early market signals are already diverging. In this episode of Supply Chain Secrets, Caroline Weaver and Lars Jensen break down where freight rates are heading post-Chinese New Year, what the latest Container Trade Statistics reveal about global demand, and why North America continues to lag the rest of the world.

They also explore escalating geopolitical risks — from Iran and the Strait of Hormuz to Greenland and terminal ownership — and what these flashpoints could mean for global shipping lanes, capacity, and pricing. Finally, the conversation returns to a familiar conclusion: volatility isn’t going away, and understanding the gap between quoted and paid rates is becoming more critical than ever.

A timely look at what’s shaping early 2026 — and why shippers should stay alert.

In this 2025 year-end review, Caroline, Lars, and Don Davis reflect on a year defined by tariff whiplash, uneven demand, and persistent gaps between quoted vs. paid spot rates. They also look ahead to 2026, where the base case remains continued volatility—with the Red Sea/Suez question, shifting capacity, and geopolitics keeping markets on edge.

Key themes covered:

• Why 2025 ended “mixed”: SCFI up while paid, loaded spot rates stayed uneven
• How tariffs reshaped shipper behavior toward more just-in-time ordering and priority services
• Don’s view from ZIM: strong and growing interest in index-linked contracts, including first-time adopters asking how structures work
• The outlook for 2026 rate volatility: continued big swings driven by uncertainty, capacity rebalancing, and potential routing changes

A clear wrap on what defined 2025—and what could make 2026 even harder to forecast!