Freight markets are reacting to the Strait of Hormuz crisis, but not in the way many expected.

In this week’s episode of Supply Chain Secrets, we break down why rate increases have been relatively modest so far, despite major geopolitical disruption, and what signals to watch beneath the surface.

This episode covers:
 • Why Asia–US and Asia–Europe rates are rising gradually, not sharply
 • The role of bunker fuel in driving current rate increases
 • What early NYFI-linked futures activity is telling us about market expectations
 • How rerouting and limited transit through Hormuz are shaping capacity
 • The risk of escalation and what it could mean for key logistics gateways
 • Demand trends, including strong global growth and continued bifurcation

Plus, insights on OOCL’s latest earnings and what they reveal about volume vs. rate performance.

Tomorrow, April 7, container freight futures tied to the NYSHEX Freight Index (NYFI) go live on Intercontinental Exchange (ICE).

In this week’s episode of Supply Chain Secrets, the conversation focuses on what that means for the industry and how these new tools fit into freight strategy.

Rich Heath, who leads financial products at NYSHEX, joins to break down how freight futures work, how they connect to index-linked contracts, and how companies can begin thinking about managing freight risk in a more structured way.

This episode covers:
 • What freight futures are and how they differ from physical freight contracts
 • Why hedging is gaining traction now after years of limited adoption
 • How futures can be used alongside existing procurement strategies
 • What a first hedge can look like and how to start small
 • How procurement and finance teams can work together on freight risk

As volatility continues to shape the market, the industry is beginning to adopt new tools designed to operate within it.

Freight markets are reacting to the crisis in the Strait of Hormuz but not in the way many expected.

In this week’s episode of Supply Chain Secrets, Caroline and Lars break down what is actually happening beneath the surface of the rate data.

While spot rates are only moving modestly week over week, the cumulative impact is building, and key signals in the market are starting to shift.

This episode covers:
 • Why rate increases so far have been gradual, not explosive
 • The sharp divergence between 20-foot and 40-foot pricing and what it signals
 • What forward curves are indicating for peak season across major trades
 • How rerouting via Oman and the Red Sea is reshaping capacity
 • The latest developments in the Strait of Hormuz and who can still transit
 • Why disruption remains highly regional for containers, but global for energy

Plus, a look at tariffs, IMO developments, and new trade agreements shaping global flows.

What will freight rates look like for the rest of 2026?

In this week’s episode of Supply Chain Secrets, the discussion moves beyond current spot rates to what the market is already pricing into the future.

From forward curves on key trades to the unfolding situation in the Strait of Hormuz, the episode explores how fuel costs, demand uncertainty, and capacity dynamics are shaping freight price expectations.

The key question: are current forecasts too conservative, or already balancing competing forces?

Topics covered:
 • Forward price expectations across Asia–US and Asia–Europe trades
 • How much of the expected increase is already explained by fuel surcharges
 • Why rates may face both upward pressure from costs and downward pressure from demand
 • What a “semi-permanent” disruption in Hormuz could mean for freight markets
 • How to think about planning in a market where the range of outcomes is widening

The Strait of Hormuz crisis has abruptly changed the tone of the ocean freight market.

In this week’s Supply Chain Secrets episode, Caroline Weaver and Lars Jensen are joined by Peter Stallion of Clarksons to unpack what is happening right now and what it means for shippers, carriers, and NVOCCs navigating another wave of volatility.

Peter brings the perspective of one of the world’s largest shipping brokers and futures market participants, explaining how financial tools are beginning to complement traditional freight procurement strategies.

In this episode:
 • Why the Strait of Hormuz is effectively closed to container shipping
 • How fuel spikes and emergency surcharges are spreading across global trades
 • Why freight indices have not yet fully captured the market shock
 • What freight futures actually are and why adoption is accelerating
 • How procurement teams can use hedging as a complement to carrier relationships and market expertise

The big takeaway: volatility is no longer rare. The industry is beginning to develop tools designed to operate in it.

Back from TPM, the team dives into the biggest forces reshaping ocean shipping right now.

This week’s episode covers:

• Demand data and a widening imbalance on Asia to Europe, plus what that means for headhaul pricing
• How parcel and DTC trade lanes are shifting as brands rethink sourcing and resilience
• The latest on IEEPA being ruled unlawful, what “refunds” might actually mean, and why the importer of record matters
• Section 122 tariffs, the 150 day clock, and what comes next
• The Strait of Hormuz disruption, end-of-voyage declarations, cargo being discharged at alternate ports, and the surge of emergency surcharges
• Why some fuel surcharges risk being blunt, not trade-specific, and potentially duplicative for shippers already paying variable fuel mechanisms
• How index-linked contracts and freight derivatives can help manage exposure when markets reprice fast

Recorded live during TPM26 in Long Beach, this episode breaks down the rapidly escalating situation involving Iran and what it means for ocean shipping immediately. Lars Jensen walks through the on-the-ground implications for the Strait of Hormuz and the ripple effects that can spread congestion and rate spikes far beyond the Middle East.

The team also explains why “Phantom GRIs” show up in quote-based indices, what that means for contract negotiations, and why transaction-based indices like NYFI can help separate market sentiment from what shippers actually pay.

Finally, NYSHEX CEO Gordon Downes joins to outline how index-linked contracts and hedging tools can help shippers and NVOCCs manage structural volatility, including practical first steps and how to get started.

This week’s Supply Chain Secrets focuses squarely on tariff volatility and what it means for global trade.

The Supreme Court overturns IEEPA tariffs. A new blanket tariff is introduced days later. Hundreds of commodity-level exemptions are published. Refund pathways remain unclear. The trade environment shifted dramatically within 72 hours.

Lars walks through what is actually in effect, what remains in place under Sections 301 and 232, and why the current policy landscape makes forward planning extraordinarily difficult.

Beyond tariffs, we cover:

• Post Chinese New Year rate declines across the Pacific and Asia-Europe
• Why Pacific spreads are tightening and what that signals about market certainty
• Reliability reaching a six-year high
• CMA-CGM’s apparent new Japan-to-North Europe service
• What this means for TPM contract negotiations

If you are managing exposure, negotiating contracts, or trying to interpret conflicting market signals, this episode provides structured clarity in a chaotic week.

This week’s Supply Chain Secrets is jam-packed. Lars Jensen and Caroline Weaver dig into sharp post–Chinese New Year moves: loaded spot rates falling faster than expected, spreads tightening across Pacific trades, and what that means for market certainty. We unpack carrier results, network changes from Ocean Alliance’s “Day 10,” and real operational risk in the Red Sea return.

The headline story: Hapag-Lloyd’s agreement to acquire most of ZIM’s fleet: what it means for Gemini, MSC, and competitive dynamics in the Transpacific and beyond. Lars breaks down why the deal matters strategically (fleet composition, charter vs. owned tonnage, and network implications), and why shippers, NVOCCs and carriers should be watching service reshuffles closely this contract season.

If you want data-forward insight into where rates are actually moving, how to read market spreads (not just headlines), and what consolidation means for your routing and negotiation strategy — press play.

Freight markets are turning earlier—and faster—than seasonal patterns would suggest. In this episode of Supply Chain Secrets, Caroline Weaver and Lars Jensen unpack why Pacific spot rates are collapsing well ahead of Chinese New Year, how this downturn compares to historical seasonality, and what that means for carriers and shippers alike.

Lars also introduces a deeper way to look at the market: not just the headline rate, but the spread around it. Using real NYFI data, he explains how wide or narrow spreads reveal market uncertainty, negotiating power, and whether shippers are truly “in market.”

The conversation then shifts to the latest on tariffs, global demand bifurcation, carrier earnings, and early steps toward a Red Sea reopening, including Gemini network moves and what a gradual return could look like in practice.

A data-driven look at where the market is weakening, where risk remains, and how alignment—not headlines—matters most heading deeper into 2026.