Supply Chain Secrets

Global schedule reliability slipped again in June, and the gap between carrier alliances is now too wide to ignore.

In this episode, Lars Jensen and Caroline Weaver cover:

• June reliability data: global on-time performance down to 63% from 65% in May, holding well below pre-pandemic norms for months running
• The alliance breakdown: Gemini at 93.4%, its best showing since launch, versus MSC around 80%, Ocean Alliance around 70%, and Premier Alliance down near 55%
• How Sea-Intelligence actually measures reliability, including the three to four week lock-in window and why plus/minus one calendar day is the right yardstick, not the wrong one
• NYFI this week: Asia-USWC down 1% to $5,818, Asia-USEC up 7% to $7,793, driven by a capacity split between the two coasts, and Asia-NEUR down 3% at $4,797.

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Ocean freight this week is a study in divergence: Pacific rates are splitting by coast, Asia-Europe spreads are widening, and a new blockade declaration just widened the Middle East risk map. Even Lars's connection from France needed a reroute this week: his audio came through rough enough that part of the episode runs on AI voiceover instead. Turns out signal disruption isn't just a shipping lane problem.

In this episode, Lars Jensen and Caroline Weaver cover:

• Why Northeast Asia is pushing USWC rates up 14.6% while pulling USEC rates down 1.6%, in the same week
• The Houthis' newly declared blockade on Saudi Arabia, and why it threatens the last working bypass route around the Strait of Hormuz
• Rising bunker costs, a new 25% Section 301 tariff on Brazil, and a US inventory picture that Lars calls "walking on a knife edge"
• Low water surcharges now hitting the St. Lawrence Seaway, the Rhine, and the Amazon, all at once

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President Trump says he'll charge a 20% toll on cargo transiting the Strait of Hormuz. Lars Jensen ran the numbers, and they don't hold up.

In this episode, Lars Jensen and Caroline Weaver cover:

• The math behind why a 20% Hormuz toll could work out to record freight rate highs, and why no shipper would pay it.
• Who would even be billed, and why the US has no realistic way to collect if a carrier just refuses.
• Seven attacks on commercial vessels in the Strait of Hormuz this week alone, and what "open" actually means when ships are still getting hit.
• Asia-USWC rates flatten, but the shipper-to-shipper spread nearly tripled in a month.
• Maersk extends its Suez return with two more services despite the Hormuz risk.

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Pacific spot rates are holding flat while futures signal the peak may already be over, and Maersk and Hapag-Lloyd just made a move that could mark the beginning of a Red Sea normalization after two and a half years of disruption.

In this episode, Lars Jensen and Caroline Weaver cover:

• Why Asia-USWC rates are flatlining around $5,200 while the futures curve still points sharply lower, and what that means for the rest of July
• The Gemini alliance's AE15 service switching back to Suez routing and what it signals about carrier confidence in Red Sea stability
• Panama Canal draft restrictions tightening through August as El Niño risk grows, and what history says about the ceiling on disruption
• Maersk's upward earnings revision and why it says more about Maersk's earlier pessimism than the overall market
• USMCA uncertainty and what a US pullback could mean for deeply intertwined North American supply chains
• EU shipping emissions data: container vessels down 6.7% per TEU year over year, even as total emissions remain elevated versus 2023 due to Red Sea rerouting

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Transpacific spot rates are skyrocketing while Asia-North Europe tells a completely different story, and the Strait of Hormuz remains closed to most container traffic after a week of missile exchanges between Iran and the US.

In this episode, Lars Jensen and Caroline Weaver cover:

• Why Asia-US West Coast spot rates are approaching East Coast levels and what that historically signals about market instability
• What the $1,600 gap between current Pacific spot rates and July futures is telling the market
• The latest in the Hormuz crisis, including the attack on the Ever Lovely and what the "evacuation" language from IMO actually means for container shipping
• Port connectivity winners and losers: how Khor Fakkan, Fujairah, and Sharjah are absorbing volume while Gulf ports go dark
• Tariff uncertainty heading into July 24, when Section 122 tariffs expire with no clear successor

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Asia-North Europe rates are up another $400 week over week, the futures curve points higher still, and the Strait of Hormuz is open, closed, and open again depending on which hour you check. Lars Jensen and Caroline Weaver cut through the noise on all of it.

In this episode, Lars Jensen and Caroline Weaver cover:

• NYFI update: Asia-North Europe spot rates at $3,563 and climbing, with July futures pointing $740 higher than current levels and August expectations also revised up. Asia-USWC at $4,264, up 6.3% week over week, with futures suggesting the Pacific apex may already be here
• Why the spread on Asia-USEC has widened to $2,000 between the 10th and 90th percentile -- and what that means for how you interpret the index relative to your own rates
• The Hormuz situation: an MoU, a declaration it was open, a declaration it was closed, vessels doing U-turns, and talks ongoing in Switzerland all within 72 hours
• Why CMA-CGM permanently shifting its FAL 3 service back to Suez on the backhaul is about capitalizing on peak season capacity, not just route normalization
• A fifth piracy attempt in two weeks in the Gulf of Aden, why ultra-large container ships have a natural defense, and why smaller vessels are at greater risk

Click here to access detailed NYFI PRO charts discussed in this episode

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Rates on Asia-North Europe and Asia-US West Coast are surging, a US-Iran memorandum of understanding has been signed, and El Niño is now official with an 88% chance of being historically severe. This week Lars Jensen and Caroline Weaver cut through the noise on all three.

In this episode, Lars Jensen and Caroline Weaver cover:

• NYFI update: Asia-North Europe spot rates up $1,000 in a month with futures pointing higher still, and Asia-USWC breaking above $4,000 per 40-foot with a volatility spike driving record hedging activity using the NYFI index
• Why the rate rally is being driven by supply and demand fundamentals, not Hormuz fuel surcharges, and what CMA-CGM's $4,000 peak season surcharge announcement signals about carrier confidence
• The US-Iran memorandum of understanding: what it says, what it does not say, and why AIS data showed no change in vessel movement through the strait in the first 48 hours
• Piracy resurgence in the Gulf of Aden and three attacks in two days including one on a Maersk feeder vessel
• El Niño confirmed and now forecast as potentially the strongest on record: what Panama Canal shippers need to plan for now

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Spot rates on Asia-Europe and Transpacific are climbing fast. The easy explanation is Hormuz. The right explanation is supply and demand, and the data Lars Jensen pulled this week makes the case clearly.

In this episode, Lars Jensen and Caroline Weaver cover:

• NYFI update: Asia-North Europe spot rates have now exceeded the Chinese New Year peak and are closing in on summer 2025 levels, with futures pointing higher. Asia-USWC and USEC continue their sustained upward trend
• Why the rate surge is driven by demand outpacing capacity, not fuel surcharges: Asia-Europe demand up 12%, Transpacific up 11% in April, with capacity failing to keep pace on both trades
• Why the 22% capacity injection planned for Asia-Med in July is a Hormuz spillover effect, not a true demand signal, and what it means for peak season
• Hormuz update: Iran-Israel escalation, EU sanctions on the Iranian Revolutionary Guard, Houthi re-entry into the conflict, and what closing Bab el-Mandeb would mean for Persian Gulf bypass routes
• Panama Canal draft restrictions effective July 3rd, what El Niño means for Lake Gatun water levels, and why Lars sees the early action as a positive sign
• Why Panamanian flag vessel registrations are dropping 1% per month and what the US-China geopolitical battle has to do with it

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Asia-North Europe

Asia-USWC/USEC

Rates are climbing, carriers are piling on surcharges, and peak season is arriving ahead of schedule. This week Lars Jensen runs the numbers on why the market is where it is and it has everything to do with the Red Sea and almost nothing to do with how consumers are feeling.

In this episode, Lars Jensen and Caroline Weaver cover:

• Why Pacific and Asia-Europe spot rates continue their upward momentum and what the futures curve is signaling for peak season, including a sharp expected pullback as early as September
• The statistical relationship between US consumer sentiment and container volumes: Lars ran the analysis and the correlation coefficient is 0.3. There effectively isn't one.
• Hormuz update: no deal, drone strikes on Kuwait, a suspected mine in Omani waters, and an MSC 18,000 TEU vessel that went dark for five days and reappeared off West Africa
• How CMA-CGM continues to quietly expand its Suez routing while every other carrier goes around Africa
• China PMI at exactly 50, and why the raw materials sub-index shooting above 60 post-Hormuz is the inflation signal worth watching
• Global trade imbalances since 2019: full containers up 17%, fleet up 43%, TEU miles up 41% and empty container movements up 102%

Freight rates on both Asia-Europe and Transpacific are strengthening and this week Lars breaks down why the driver is fundamentals, not Hormuz. Meanwhile, a vessel explosion in the Gulf of Oman adds fresh tension to an already fragile situation.

In this episode, Lars Jensen and Caroline Weaver cover:

• Why capacity injection on Asia-North Europe and Transpacific is running well below demand growth, and what that means for peak season rates
• A breaking report of a vessel explosion in the Gulf of Oman and what it signals about the state of the Hormuz conflict
• The five and a half billion dollar added fuel cost burden on the container shipping industry over the past three months and how it compares to total industry EBIT
• Gemini Alliance reliability bouncing back to 85% and a standout 98.5% on Asia-US West Coast
• The UK ETS taking effect July 1st and the loophole it closes for carriers routing through UK ports
• US consumer sentiment hitting its lowest reading since 1952, and whether that translates to freight demand