Supply Chain Secrets

Transpacific rates are grinding higher into peak season while the Hormuz crisis shows no sign of resolution, and a new weather risk is quietly building for the Panama Canal.

In this episode, Lars Jensen and guest host Don Davis cover:

• NYFI spot rate momentum on Asia-US West Coast and Asia-Europe, and what futures rates suggest for the next two months
• Iran's tightening grip on Strait of Hormuz traffic, including vessel seizures and a potential threat to subsea data cables
• CMA CGM and Hapag-Lloyd suspending Cuba bookings following new US sanctions
• A NOAA upgrade placing a 67% probability on a strong or very strong El Niño, and what that means for Panama Canal capacity heading into 2027
• Q1 2026 carrier results: Maersk gained market share; Hapag-Lloyd volume declined year-on-year

Pacific rates are flatlining but peak season signals are building, with freight futures pointing to a $900 per FEU jump on Asia-North Europe by July. Meanwhile, the Strait of Hormuz remains effectively closed, global container demand fell 2.4% year-on-year in March, and Maersk posted a second consecutive quarter of negative EBIT.

In this episode, Lars Jensen and Caroline Weaver cover:

• Rate movements across Asia-US West Coast, Asia-US East Coast, and Asia-North Europe, including what freight futures are signaling for peak season
• The latest Hormuz developments including two new vessel attacks and the short-lived US military escort operation
• March global demand data: why the headline -2.4% masks a world that is otherwise still growing at 5-8%
• Maersk Q1 results and what two consecutive quarters of negative EBIT signals for carrier health

The Strait of Hormuz has been closed for two months, yet TransPacific and Asia-Europe freight rates are barely moving compared to the disruptions of 2024-2025. This week, Lars and Caroline put the Hormuz crisis in proper context and cover the other headlines reshaping ocean freight.

In this episode, Lars Jensen and Caroline Weaver cover:

• Why Pacific and Asia-Europe spot rates are rising on seasonality, not the Hormuz crisis, and what the futures market is signaling for peak season
• Live updates from the Strait of Hormuz: vessel escorts, Iranian attacks, and why seafarers face higher risk inside a military convoy than outside one
• How Khor Fakkan scaled from 100 to 6,000 trucks per day to route cargo around a closed strait
• China's new blocking statutes, the EU analog that already exists, and why compliance is now a lose-lose for many companies
• The MEPC decision expanding ECA coverage to the Northeast Atlantic and the net zero framework clinging to life support ahead of November

Iran has seized two MSC vessels in the Strait of Hormuz, bookings into the Persian Gulf have collapsed 66% year over year, and Somali pirates are back. The maritime risk picture is deteriorating fast.

In this episode, Lars Jensen and Caroline Weaver cover:

• Transpacific NYFI movements by subtrade, including why Northeast Asia rates are more volatile than other origins
• Why 20-foot and 40-foot rates on the Transatlantic have completely decoupled -- and what that means if you're shipping dense cargo
• Asia-North Europe spot rates weakening toward pre-crisis levels, while futures markets signal a recovery into May
• Iran seizing MSC vessels, the Hormuz closure, and the return of Somali piracy
• Plastics supply risk: why a Dow Chemical warning about ethylene and polyethylene shortages should be on every importer's radar
• Ocean carrier reliability at 62% -- why the industry has systematically underperformed pre-pandemic norms, and what that means for global capacity

Ocean freight markets are sending mixed signals this week: Asia-Europe spot rates are falling, Pacific rates are ticking up, and Atlantic rates jumped sharply, but the bigger story is the widening spread between what different shippers are paying and what that uncertainty means.

In this episode, Lars Jensen and Caroline Weaver cover:

• Why expanding rate spreads across Asia-Europe, Transpacific, and Atlantic trades signal growing market uncertainty
• The Strait of Hormuz situation: the failed opening, vessel U-turns, Iranian attacks on ships, and what comes next
• Bunker fuel prices in context: why current levels, while high, are not the crisis they appear to be
• U.S. consumer sentiment hitting a 66-year record low and what that means for container volumes

Freight markets are reacting to the Strait of Hormuz crisis, but not in the way many expected.

In this week’s episode of Supply Chain Secrets, we break down why rate increases have been relatively modest so far, despite major geopolitical disruption, and what signals to watch beneath the surface.

This episode covers:
 • Why Asia–US and Asia–Europe rates are rising gradually, not sharply
 • The role of bunker fuel in driving current rate increases
 • What early NYFI-linked futures activity is telling us about market expectations
 • How rerouting and limited transit through Hormuz are shaping capacity
 • The risk of escalation and what it could mean for key logistics gateways
 • Demand trends, including strong global growth and continued bifurcation

Plus, insights on OOCL’s latest earnings and what they reveal about volume vs. rate performance.

Tomorrow, April 7, container freight futures tied to the NYSHEX Freight Index (NYFI) go live on Intercontinental Exchange (ICE).

In this week’s episode of Supply Chain Secrets, the conversation focuses on what that means for the industry and how these new tools fit into freight strategy.

Rich Heath, who leads financial products at NYSHEX, joins to break down how freight futures work, how they connect to index-linked contracts, and how companies can begin thinking about managing freight risk in a more structured way.

This episode covers:
 • What freight futures are and how they differ from physical freight contracts
 • Why hedging is gaining traction now after years of limited adoption
 • How futures can be used alongside existing procurement strategies
 • What a first hedge can look like and how to start small
 • How procurement and finance teams can work together on freight risk

As volatility continues to shape the market, the industry is beginning to adopt new tools designed to operate within it.

Freight markets are reacting to the crisis in the Strait of Hormuz but not in the way many expected.

In this week’s episode of Supply Chain Secrets, Caroline and Lars break down what is actually happening beneath the surface of the rate data.

While spot rates are only moving modestly week over week, the cumulative impact is building, and key signals in the market are starting to shift.

This episode covers:
 • Why rate increases so far have been gradual, not explosive
 • The sharp divergence between 20-foot and 40-foot pricing and what it signals
 • What forward curves are indicating for peak season across major trades
 • How rerouting via Oman and the Red Sea is reshaping capacity
 • The latest developments in the Strait of Hormuz and who can still transit
 • Why disruption remains highly regional for containers, but global for energy

Plus, a look at tariffs, IMO developments, and new trade agreements shaping global flows.

What will freight rates look like for the rest of 2026?

In this week’s episode of Supply Chain Secrets, the discussion moves beyond current spot rates to what the market is already pricing into the future.

From forward curves on key trades to the unfolding situation in the Strait of Hormuz, the episode explores how fuel costs, demand uncertainty, and capacity dynamics are shaping freight price expectations.

The key question: are current forecasts too conservative, or already balancing competing forces?

Topics covered:
 • Forward price expectations across Asia–US and Asia–Europe trades
 • How much of the expected increase is already explained by fuel surcharges
 • Why rates may face both upward pressure from costs and downward pressure from demand
 • What a “semi-permanent” disruption in Hormuz could mean for freight markets
 • How to think about planning in a market where the range of outcomes is widening

The Strait of Hormuz crisis has abruptly changed the tone of the ocean freight market.

In this week’s Supply Chain Secrets episode, Caroline Weaver and Lars Jensen are joined by Peter Stallion of Clarksons to unpack what is happening right now and what it means for shippers, carriers, and NVOCCs navigating another wave of volatility.

Peter brings the perspective of one of the world’s largest shipping brokers and futures market participants, explaining how financial tools are beginning to complement traditional freight procurement strategies.

In this episode:
 • Why the Strait of Hormuz is effectively closed to container shipping
 • How fuel spikes and emergency surcharges are spreading across global trades
 • Why freight indices have not yet fully captured the market shock
 • What freight futures actually are and why adoption is accelerating
 • How procurement teams can use hedging as a complement to carrier relationships and market expertise

The big takeaway: volatility is no longer rare. The industry is beginning to develop tools designed to operate in it.