Lloyd's List: The Shipping Podcast

This episode of the Lloyd’s List podcast is brought to you by Lloyd’s Register — visit www.lr.org/en for more information

Law and insurance editor David Osler assembles a star-studded line-up at the International Union of Marine Insurance annual conference in Berlin to assess the strength of the market in 2024

In the long run, ‘doing good is good for business’, believes Natalie Sallaum, chief relationship officer at the vehicle carrier Sallaum Lines. In this edition of the Shipping Podcast, she draws on the company’s extensive experience of supporting community environmental initiatives to set out the benefits of being proactive about CSR and ESG

This episode of the Lloyd’s List podcast was brought to you by Lloyd’s Register — visit www.lr.org/en for more information

THE multi-fuel future of shipping is looking more limited than it was a year ago. We know what the three major molecules are – methane, methanol and ammonia.

But this isn’t a question of picking a fuel and supporting it as if it were a sports team to be followed blindly. Shipowners are largely agnostic and very pragmatic when it comes to options of the table.

This is not just about the fuel ,or the availability of technology and engines, or the regulation, or the carbon pricing, or the offtake agreements and demand signals, or the fact that shipping is in a long queue of other sectors competing for the same supply of molecules – it’s about all of these competing dynamics and the fact that owners have to balance decisions that need to be taken now against the uncertain outcome of all of these factors.

And in the midst of all that uncertainty the pragmatic view of the immediate choices available to shipping appears to be coalescing around LNG.

Now that’s still a controversial view in some quarters –methane slip, a greenhouse gas 82 times more potent than carbon dioxide – remains a cause for concern.

But LNG is a fuel in transition, rather than a transitional fuel, runs the argument. When you consider bio-LNG and synthetic LNG, and the ability to combine LNG with carbon capture there is a compelling case for the industry to now converge on LNG as the most pragmatic available pathway right now.

Joining Richard on the podcast this week:

Melissa Williams, president of Shell Marine

Bud Darr, executive vice president of maritime policy and government affairs at Mediterranean Shipping Company

Stelios Troulis, Angelicoussis Group energy transition and sustainability director

This episode of the Lloyd's List podcast was brought to you by Lloyd's Register - visit www.lr.org/en/ for more information.

Should you wish to list all of the various risks, road blocks, unresolved problems and known challenges ahead for the shipping industry you will need a long piece of paper and ideally some medical assistance on standby.

This is not a task for the faint of heart or those of a nervous disposition.

You might start with some of the old favourites - supply chain instability, barriers to trade and administrative burdens on an industry ill-equipped to deal with them are all still bubbling away raising the sector’s blood pressure. Cyber risk, protectionism, the rise of the dark fleet, seafarer training and recruitment, autonomy…. the list just goes on and on.

But, given the geopolitical upheaval that now threatens to blow up, on a daily basis, the risk hotlist is looking spicier than usual this year.

How do we deal with this growing ‘to do’ list from hell? How is it possible for such a fragmented industry do tackle decarbonisation and digitalisation amid a fracturing geopolitical framework, on top of the business-as-usual risk list that threatens to scupper the best laid plans of those who carry global trade on a daily basis?

Shipping’s post-Covid, post-Ever Given public profile has never been greater, but more importantly, the industry’s political capital is at an all-time high.

This week, Lloyd’s List editor-in-chief Richard Meade talks to the European Community Shipowners’ Association, the Singapore Shipowners’ Association and international Chamber of Shipping about what’s on their agenda and where they see the greatest challenges, and solutions for shipping.

Joining Richard are:

Guy Platten, secretary general, International Chamber of Shipping

Caroline Yang, president, Singapore Shipowners’ Association

Sotiris Raptis, secretary general, European Community Shipowners’ Association

This episode of the Lloyd's List podcast was brought to you by Lloyd's Register - visit www.lr.org/en/ for more information.

In China, shipyards that were distressed assets just years ago are now highly sought after. And if you happened to buy into some back then, congratulations; you likely stand to make a windfall profit.

Shanghai-headquartered DCL Investments made one such shrewd play more than two years ago. It invested in restructuring bankrupt Yangzhou Guoyu Shipbuilding at bargain prices, becoming the yard's controlling shareholder in July 2024.

Now this facility, with over 300 acres of land, 2 km of Yangtze river frontage, and four slipways able to produce up to 18 merchant ships annually, is generating positive cashflow by leasing to other shipbuilders. It could also bring DCL Investments a hefty return if snapped up by the next buyer.

Behind this story is the unfolding of the latest shipbuilding cycle: orderbooks swell, ship prices surge, yards’ profits rebound, and capacity expands.

But spectres of the past haunt: will rampant overordering end in yet another devastating crash? Those who lived through the order bubble prior to the 2008 financial crisis can’t help but worry about history repeating itself.

Sanguine voices, however, counter history won’t simply repeat. This cycle still has room to run, optimists say, fuelled by fleet renewal demand amid massive levels of aging tonnage and tightening emissions rules absent in the frenzied 2000s.

Meanwhile, the industry outlook is intertwined with various uncertainties. Can vessel earnings justify the rising ship prices? Can shipyards resolve labour shortages? Is the International Maritime Organization able to accomplish its green ambitions? And, will excess capacity expansion re-emerge in China, the world’s largest shipbuilding nation and, disrupt markets?

Discussing shipbuilding prospects on the podcast this week:

Wang Linyu, managing director of DCL Investments

John Cotzias, founder of Xclusiv

Dimitris Roumeliotis, research analyst of Xclusiv

Rob Willmington, markets editor of Lloyd’s List

What do I build? Where do I build it? How much does it cost? And when can I get it?

That’s the checklist of shipowner’s questions right now as they consider newbuildings.

If you asked a shipowner what they would be looking for a decade ago the answer to those questions would be pretty standard. If money was no object they would plump for the quality of Japanese yards, they would know exactly which engine was the most efficient for their requirements and the list optional specifications would largely be a question of cost and strategy.

As we have reported in previous editions of the podcast, the shipping industry’s decarbonisation strategy is largely built on a fuel mix for which availability is low, energy density is low, capital requirements are high, prices are at record levels, consumer signals are weak, and the ownership structure is fragmented with no clear market leader to drive the new market offering.

And yet orders have to be placed – regardless of the regulatory uncertainty, lack of supply, scalability of availability of technology or fuels, the fleet news renewing. Decisions have to be taken and inevitably the interplay between flexibility, efficiency, and yes cost, make for a complex process, that more often then not ends up looking like a series of bets more than a strategy.

So this week I want to explore how the industry is thinking about these decisions. What’s the best ship you could theoretically build today? If money were no object and you could get on a plane and find yourself in a shipyard office withal the available specs in front of you – what do you go for?

Joining Richard on the podcast this week are:

Claire Wright, head of Hanwha Ocean Europe

Nikos Tsatsaros, construction director at Lloyd’s Register

THE headline takeaway from the 2024 edition of the top 100 container port was a second successive year of muted volume growth during 2023 for the biggest container ports.

The total tally of just over 690m teu handled by the top 100 ports represented a 0.8% rise on the previous year, continuing the trend of the ‘tepid 20s’ post-Covid with volume growth only marginal.

Lloyd’s List deputy editor Linton Nightingale spoke to Drewry senior ports and terminals analyst Eleanor Hadland to look back on how the container port sector fared last year and how it has kicked off 2024.

They discussed the factors that could upset the applecart, disrupt the sector and pose a problem for volume trajectory, including potential dock strikes and the result of the upcoming US presidential election…

Strict but fair.

That’s the description of the Australian Maritime Safety Authority from retiring chief executive Mick Kinley.

Some of the world's biggest shipping companies have been named and shamed by the regulator in recent years and their vessels banned from entering ports over sub-standard conditions or not paying crew.

Speaking with characteristic Australian candour and colour, Kinley reflects on the progress made by the regulator he has led for the past 10 years and offers some advice to the International Maritime Organization where he has been a key figure for some time.

As Kinley sails off over the horizon after 30 years with AMSA, Lloyd’s List sits down with him to talk about his role, changes in the Australian maritime industry over the past three decades and some of the global achievements the authority has had as it seeks to protect seafarers and maintain standards in shipping.

Concerns around security and geopolitics intensified at the end of last year as the Houthis began targeting vessels in the Red Sea and Gulf of Aden under the cover of a show of support for Hamas. Adding to the deteriorating situation was the resurgence in Somali piracy as some actors sought to take advantage of the chaos.

Since November we’ve seen nearly 90 incidents related to the Red Sea crisis and multiple piracy incidents including hijackings in the Somali basin, and an uptick in events that could potentially become piracy attacks.

This is all happening with various naval operations working around the clock to defend merchant shipping and uphold the freedom of navigation.

Significant resources have been deployed in response to the Houthi attacks in the Red Sea, yet, transits through the Bab el Mandeb are consistently down 60% on normal volumes and ships are repeatedly coming under fire.

But it’s not just physical protection. For shipping to be able to conduct threat and risks assessments and make security related decisions they need accurate information and insight.

So this week on the Lloyd’s List podcast we ask: can navies protect shipping?

Joining Lloyd’s List maritime risk analyst are:

Commander Knut Evensen, Royal Norwegian Navy

Mike Plunkett, senior naval platforms analyst, Janes

Antonio Martorell Dominguez, Spanish Navy

A few hours after the containership Dali (IMO: 9697428) destroyed the Francis Scott Key Bridge in Baltimore, there were media reports suggesting investigators would look into ‘bad bunkers’ as a potential cause of the accident.

The National Transportation Safety Board ruled out that possibility after its initial investigation. But this incident alone gives us a good idea about the perception of the bunker sector in wider shipping circles.

To some, the negative image of the bunker sector isn’t surprising, as some of the court cases arising from the past couple of years’ contamination issues continued until very recently.

The highest profile contamination incident occurred in Singapore in 2022, when around 80 ships reported issues with their fuel pumps and engines after receiving contaminated fuel oil at the world’s biggest bunkering hub.

Bunker industry executives believe there is still room for improvement as suppliers must adopt the strictest quality standards, but they also argue that shipping companies must play their part and demand such standards to accelerate the process.

Joining Lloyd’s List sustainability editor Enes Tunagur this week:

Constantinos Capetanakis, chair of the International Bunker Industry Association

Chris Turner, bunker quality and claims manager at Integr8 Fuels