Freedom of navigation — the legal principle that states ships from any country have the right to sail freely in international waters — is under attack.

It has been for some time.

But a confluence of geopolitical shifts, security threats and an accelerating frequency of legal assaults are finally starting to erode a fundamental principle of the law of the sea and a pillar of modern international law.

For the first time since the Cold War, maritime trade lanes have become contested zones and the rules-based order that shipping has previously relied on to protect it has started to disintegrate.

And that threat is coming from multiple different vectors.

A good starting point for that is what’s happening in the Baltic right now.

What Denmark and the Nordic-Baltic states have said is that they would take “coordinated steps to disrupt and deter Russia’s shadow fleet”. While the language is deliberately vague, this amounts to politely requesting details of suspect ships’ insurance. If they don’t comply they risk being sanctioned, but so far none of the states are suggesting they will go further than that. For now.

Geopolitical tensions are deepening and global maritime trade is being caught in the crossfire, both literally and figuratively. Trade lanes on the oceans are contested zones for the first time since the Cold War.

The question is whether there is sufficient energy left amongst those backing the crumbling rules-based order to defend it.

The world economy is still globalised, at least for the moment.

But superpower rivalry and the decay of global rules and norms mean that geopolitical tensions are deepening and global maritime trade is being caught in the crossfire, both literally and figuratively.

Some of this is happening in plain sight. In the Red Sea, the Houthis redirected maritime trade and the combined naval forces of Europe, the US, UK and Israel were unable to convince the majority of global shipping that freedom of navigation had been maintained.

In the Baltic, coastal states are publicly threatening to detain ships considered to be an environmental or security threat as a shadow-war of pipeline and cable sabotage plays out beneath the waves.

Strategic choke points from the Arctic to the Panama Canal are subject to daily diplomatic spats, and harassment of merchant shipping in the Taiwan Strait, the Black Sea and the South China Sea is now considered so routine that incidents are barely reported.

Behind closed doors, meanwhile, a legal and diplomatic war is being waged to redefine the very concept of international rules that allow ships to trade internationally. Trade lanes on the oceans are a contested zone for the first time since the Cold War.

The very concept of freedom of navigation — a legal principle that states that ships from any country have the right to sail freely in international waters — is under attack.

Over the course of a special two-part podcast Lloyd’s List editor-in-chief Richard Meade takes a wider look at what this means for shipping.

Is freedom of navigation, a fundamental principle of the law of the sea and a pillar of modern international law, something we have just quietly given up on?

Featuring:

Dominick Donald, geopolitical risk analyst and adviser to the joint war risks committee at Lloyd’s

Ian Ralby, chief executive of consultancy IR Consilium

Kristina Siig, Professor of Maritime Law and Law of the Sea, University of Southern Denmark. Professor II of Maritime Law, Scandinavian Institute of Maritime Law, University of Oslo, Norway

Decarbonisation is perhaps the biggest issue shipping faces, and it’s unique in that it affects everyone, whatever your politics.

The question we, and much of the shipping industry asks, is not whether future fuels will become viable one day, but rather which of them will win the race.

Of course, we’re often told things like “we see a multi-fuel future” or “we are fuel agnostic”.

But besides looking for that crystal ball we so regrettably lack, it helps to look at what’s out there today. And judging on data released by Norwegian class society DNV, what’s out there is LNG.

Orders for vessels that were at least dual-fuel LNG doubled in 2024, with 264 orders placed. That’s 100 more than the next most popular alternative, methanol.

LNG ships represent nearly 10% of ships on order and 26% of gross tonnage on order, about double methanol’s share.

So why is LNG so far in front in the alternative fuel race?

Joining Declan on the podcast are:

Jason Stefanatos, global decarbonisation director, DNV

Peter Keller, chairman, Sea-LNG

Over the last few weeks, we’ve brought you several episodes from our experts here at Lloyd’s List briefing you on what to expect in each respective sector in 2025.

Insurance editor David Osler is rounding that series off with a look at what the marine insurance market can expect over the next 12 months.

The sector was thrust into the limelight in March last year, when containership Dali allided with the Francis Scott Key bridge in Baltimore, which tragically resulted in the deaths of six construction workers.

That casualty could wind up being the costliest in maritime history by the time it’s run its course though the US judicial system, and the International Group of P&I clubs is already on the hook for some serious cash.

David explains how that case will affect P&I insurance moving forwards, as well as highlighting the extra capacity hitting the hull and machinery market which could drive down prices for shipowners.

To listen to the rest of out ‘What to look out for series’, head to Soundcloud, Spotify, or wherever you get your podcasts.

You can also listen to every episode of the podcast on the Lloyd’s List app.

THE geopolitical landscape changed seemingly by the hour in 2024, and 2025 has started in a similar vein.

Cable cutting, new tranches of sanctions from the outgoing Biden administration and Chinese shipping giant Cosco being placed on a US Department of Defense sanctions for links to the Chinese military – all of that has happened in the first 10 days of 2025.

But before all of that though, our risk and compliance experts gathered to discuss what they would be looking out for in 2025 and what you should be expecting from the year ahead.

They discussed how sanctions handed down by multiple governments are attempting to control the trade of a growing dark fleet*, the increase in Automated Identification System manipulation, plus they debate whether shipping will return to the Red Sea in 2025.

Joining reporter Joshua Minchin on this episode are:

• Michelle Wiese Bockmann, principal analyst, Lloyd’s List

• Tomer Raanan, senior maritime reporter, Lloyd’s List

• Bridget Diakun, maritime risk analyst, Lloyd’s List

* Lloyd’s List defines a tanker as part of the dark fleet if it is aged 15 years or over, anonymously owned and/or has a corporate structure designed to obfuscate beneficial ownership discovery, solely deployed in sanctioned oil trades, and engaged in one or more of the deceptive shipping practices outlined in US State Department guidance issued in May 2020. The figures exclude tankers tracked to government-controlled shipping entities such as Russia’s Sovcomflot, or Iran’s National Iranian Tanker Co, and those already sanctioned.

Decarbonisation is one of the most written-about topics in Lloyd’s List. Read our daily briefing on any given day and it will more than likely contain at least one story dedicated to the industry’s journey towards net zero.

And there’s good reason for that too. It dominates shipping headlines and touches every corner of our industry and 2025 could be a pivotal year in shipping’s long history. Not only are there major changes to the European Union’s FuelEU and Emissions Trading System about to come into force, but many believe the world’s first international carbon levy could be agreed at the International Maritime Organization during meetings of its Marine Environment Protection Committee later this year.

So, how likely is it that shipping gets a firm agreement from the IMO that carries some weight? And, if nothing is agreed, then what does the future of the regulator look like? To talk you through what could be a momentous year in securing shipping’s future, here’s multimedia editor and former sustainability editor Declan Bush, and Lloyd’s List editor-in-chief, Richard Meade.

Reading the runes of this industry is often a futile and thankless task – predictions are regularly wiped out just hours after they are made.

Despite that, our markets team assembled to make sure you are as prepared as you can be in our unpredictable sector for the year ahead.

Senior maritime reporter Greg Miller discusses tankers and dry bulk, asking why the year started off so well for both before reaching a disappointing climax.

Containers editor James Baker joins Greg to ask whether the box sector gravy train will ever end, and finally markets editor Robert Willmington takes a look at the shipbuilding market and makes some predictions about recycling and sale and purchase in 2025.

There is plenty more to come from the rest of the Lloyd’s List team in the New Year to make sure you’re briefed for the year ahead. But if you want to listen to any of our episodes from 2024, you can find them all on Spotify, Soundcloud, as well as the Lloyd’s List app.

Another year over, a new one just begun. As the clock ticks down on 2024 and 2025 begins, shipping is braced for another unpredictable year.

Reading the runes of this industry is often a futile and thankless task – predictions are regularly wiped out just hours after they are made.

But nevertheless, to prepare you for the New Year the Lloyd’s List editorial team is going to be bringing you several mini episodes of the podcast over the next couple of weeks, in which they will discuss the things they are looking out for in 2025.

We’ll be talking about decarbonisation, risk and compliance, the container, tanker and dry bulk markets, as well as the marine insurance sector too.

But to kick things off, editor-in chief Richard Meade and our Asia Pacific editor Cichen Shen sat down to take a bird’s eye view of the industry, and reveal what they will be waiting for in 2025.

The volume and frequency of sanctions being targeted against shipping has never higher, or more visible, Sanctions are now a daily part of the Lloyd’s List news agenda, so it’s sometimes difficult to see how and how fast things are changing.

But the risk and compliance landscape has noticeably changed this year – we’re seeing more targeted sanctions, and in response we’re seeing an ever-evolving shift of circumvention tactics, from an ever growing dark fleet that is looking more and more dangerous by the day.

And the politics are also shifting.

Much of Donald Trump’s sanctions strategy remains unclear, and on past experience, unpredictable.

It’s a fair bet that Tehran can expect to be under more pressure post January 20 next year.

But what happens with Russia – that’s the big question. And what does that mean for the rest of shipping that has been left to navigate its way around not just an increasingly hefty compliance burden, but what is essentially a tiered trading system where one part of the industry is jumping through hoops to apply regulation and decarbonise and pay for carbon burned…

While another section sails without basic adherence to safety regulations, no insurance, no legitimate flag – they are outside of the rules based order and they are earning a premium for it.

So when Lloyd’s List hosted its annual Outlook Forum in London earlier this month, this was the context to our discussions around sanctions risk and compliance.

If you haven’t already listened to the previous edition of the podcast where we brought you highlights of the first panel from our outlook event, then now would be a good time to hit pause and go back to listen to that one first.

For the rest of you though, this is the second and final part of our edited highlight series that you’re going to be listening to today.

Joining Richard on the panel were:

Michelle Linderman, partner, Van Bael & Bellis

Daniel Martin, partner, HFW

Michelle Wiese Bockmann, principal analyst, Lloyd’s List

Bridget Diakun, maritime risk analyst, Lloyd’s List

Each year, Lloyd’s List likes to gather a group of industry leaders, lock them in a room and not let them leave until they have divined the fate and fortunes of the shipping industry for the year to come.

And that’s what we did earlier this month in London at the annual Lloyd’s List Outlook Forum, sponsored by Lloyd’s Register.

Having gathered a baseline of crowdsourced knowledge from Lloyd’s List readers, we invited an all star line up of shipping’s sharpest minds to join us for a discussion of the opportunities and threats that will be shaping shipping next year and beyond.

Understanding the tipping points that will determine the future of the industry is absolutely critical, and you can learn what to look out for in 2025 in this week’s episode, which brings you highlights from the event in London.

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• Nick Brown, chief executive, Lloyd’s Register

• Karrie Trauth, senior vice-president and head of shipping and maritime, Shell

• Tanuj Luthra, chief operating officer, Zodiac Maritime

• Andrea Olivi, global head of shipping, Trafigura

• Michael Parker, Citi global shipping, logistics and offshore chairman and chair of the Poseidon Principles

Want more insight? Download our Lloyd’s List Outlook Forum: 2025 and beyond Summary and Key Takeaways document, including the results from our Outlook survey and key quotes and charts from the event here: https://info.lloydslistintelligence.com/lloyds-list-outlook-forum-2025-and-beyond