Supply Chain Secrets

Schrödinger's Strait: Is Hormuz Open, Closed, or Both?


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Asia-North Europe rates are up another $400 week over week, the futures curve points higher still, and the Strait of Hormuz is open, closed, and open again depending on which hour you check. Lars Jensen and Caroline Weaver cut through the noise on all of it.

In this episode, Lars Jensen and Caroline Weaver cover:

  • NYFI update: Asia-North Europe spot rates at $3,563 and climbing, with July futures pointing $740 higher than current levels and August expectations also revised up. Asia-USWC at $4,264, up 6.3% week over week, with futures suggesting the Pacific apex may already be here
  • Why the spread on Asia-USEC has widened to $2,000 between the 10th and 90th percentile -- and what that means for how you interpret the index relative to your own rates
  • The Hormuz situation: an MoU, a declaration it was open, a declaration it was closed, vessels doing U-turns, and talks ongoing in Switzerland all within 72 hours
  • Why CMA-CGM permanently shifting its FAL 3 service back to Suez on the backhaul is about capitalizing on peak season capacity, not just route normalization
  • A fifth piracy attempt in two weeks in the Gulf of Aden, why ultra-large container ships have a natural defense, and why smaller vessels are at greater risk

Click here to access detailed NYFI PRO charts discussed in this episode

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