Conversations with Commerce Trust

In our latest podcast, we revisit last year’s extraordinary market events and provide insights from the 2023 Economic Outlook on what could lie ahead in the world of investments for 2023.

Chief Investment Officer David Hagee discusses the municipal markets, looking at the tumultuous year that they've had and planning for investment opportunities with Brian Musielak, Director of Fixed Income Portfolio Management. 

Chief Investment Officer David Hagee explores the evolution of global commerce known as “Slobalization,” and how technology, a manufacturing renaissance and regional trade networks are transforming the way the world does business.

After a disappointing first half of the year, the markets appear to be experiencing some resurgence. The S&P 500 Index, while still down for the year, has recouped nearly 40% of its losses from its low point in March. So, what’s behind this rally? In the latest Five Minutes with Scott Colbert, we delve into three factors we believe are driving this rebound. 










Disclosures:
Commerce Trust Company is a division of Commerce Bank. Generally, non-depository investments offered in connection with Commerce Bank and its affiliates are not guaranteed, are not FDIC insured, and may lose value. Information provided is effective as of today, August 3, 2022, and is presented for the purpose of general education, information or illustration only. It is not to be considered as the opinion of Commerce Trust Company or Commerce Bank regarding any individual investment, investment account or market behavior. Neither Commerce nor any of its affiliates, officers, employees, or agents have made any recommendation or given any advice as to the terms, beneficial interest or profitability of any investment on market activity which may be referenced here, and this information may not be relied upon as such.
Accordingly, you understand that you are always fully responsible for any investment transaction you choose to enter into, and that you shall not have relied only on any of the proceedings or following information for Commerce as a basis for any investment decision. In considering whether to trade or
invest, you should inform yourself and be aware of the risks. The risk of loss from investing in securities and other investments can be substantial. You should consider whether investments entered into directly by you or on a discretionary managed basis through Commerce Trust Company or elsewhere are appropriate for you in light of your investment objectives, financial circumstances, tax status, your tolerance to risk, investment time horizon, and your investment experience. Past performance is no guarantee of future results, and any opinions and other information in the commentary provided as of this date are subject to change. Diversification does not guarantee a profit or protect against all risk. Markets, economic forecast and aspects of specific investments can change from time to time based on a variety of individual interrelated or complex factors.
This disclosure statement cannot present all the risks and other significant aspects of investments, economies, or markets in which you may elect to transact from time to time. You should therefore carefully study investment arrangements in advance of making decisions about investing. Providing this information, which may be a value to you, or others does not detract from an investor's responsibility to take all such steps and make all such inquiries as may be necessary to ensure a full understanding and familiarity with any potential future investment. If you are in doubt about the risks involved in trading or investment arrangements or have not understood any aspect of this risk disclosure statement, you should seek independent professional advice. Please also note that Commerce does not offer tax, legal or specific estate planning advice. And while we may provide information or express general opinions from time to time, such information or opinions are not offered as professional tax or legal advice.

The stock market’s performance in July has been relatively positive to date, which is a marked improvement from the first half of the year. This has many investors asking if we’re experiencing a calm before the storm, or the start of a material rebound. In this episode of Five Minutes with Scott Colbert, we outline three possible economic scenarios and how each could impact market performance for the rest of 2022.

https://info.commercetrustcompany.com/five-minutes-with-colbert-721






Disclosures: Commerce Trust Company is a division of Commerce Bank. Generally, non-depository investments offered in connection with Commerce Bank and its affiliates are not guaranteed, are not FDIC insured, and may lose value. Information provided is effective as of today, July 20, 2022, and is presented for the purpose of general education, information or illustration only. It is not to be considered as the opinion of Commerce Trust Company or Commerce Bank regarding any individual investment, investment account or market behavior. Neither Commerce nor any of its affiliates, officers, employees, or agents have made any recommendation or given any advice as to the terms, beneficial interest or profitability of any investment on market activity which may be referenced here, and this information may not be relied upon as such. Accordingly, you understand that you are always fully responsible for any investment transaction you choose to enter into, and that you shall not have relied only on any of the proceedings or following information for Commerce as a basis for any investment decision. In considering whether to trade or invest, you should inform yourself and be aware of the risks. The risk of loss from investing in securities and other investments can be substantial. You should consider whether investments entered into directly by you or on a discretionary managed basis through Commerce Trust Company or elsewhere are appropriate for you in light of your investment objectives, financial circumstances, tax status, your tolerance to risk, investment time horizon, and your investment experience. Past performance is no guarantee of future results, and any opinions and other information in the commentary provided as of this date are subject to change. Diversification does not guarantee a profit or protect against all risk. Markets, economic forecast and aspects of specific investments can change from time to time based on a variety of individual interrelated or complex factors. This disclosure statement cannot present all the risks and other significant aspects of investments, economies, or markets in which you may elect to transact from time to time. You should therefore carefully study investment arrangements in advance of making decisions about investing. Providing this information, which may be a value to you or others does not detract from an investor's responsibility to take all such steps and make all such inquiries as may be necessary to ensure a full understanding and familiarity with any potential future investment. If you are in doubt about the risks involved in trading or investment arrangements, or have not understood any aspect of this risk disclosure statement, you should seek independent professional advice. Please also note that Commerce does not offer tax, legal or specific estate planning advice. And while we may provide information or express general opinions from time to time, such information or opinions are not offered as professional tax or legal advice 

Financial market performance has been dismal so far in 2022. With the dog days of summer now upon us, what expectations should we have for the rest of the year? In the latest Five Minutes with Scott Colbert, we examine the current economic backdrop, opportunities for optimism and what it all means for investors.



Disclosures:
Commerce Trust Company is a division of Commerce Bank. Generally, non-depository investments offered in connection with Commerce Bank and its affiliates are not guaranteed, are not FDIC insured, and may lose value. Information provided is effective as of today, July 5, 2022, and is presented for the purpose of general education, information or illustration only. It is not to be considered as the opinion of Commerce Trust Company or Commerce Bank regarding any individual investment, investment account or market behavior. Neither Commerce nor any of its affiliates, officers, employees, or agents have made any recommendation or given any advice as to the terms, beneficial interest or profitability of any investment on market activity which may be referenced here, and this information may not be relied upon as such.
Accordingly, you understand that you are always fully responsible for any investment transaction you choose to enter into, and that you shall not have relied only on any of the proceedings or following information for Commerce as a basis for any investment decision. In considering whether to trade or invest, you should inform yourself and be aware of the risks. The risk of loss from investing in securities and other investments can be substantial. You should consider whether investments entered into directly by you or on a discretionary managed basis through Commerce Trust Company or elsewhere are appropriate for you in light of your investment objectives, financial circumstances, tax status, your tolerance to risk, investment time horizon, and your investment experience. Past performance is no guarantee of future results, and any opinions and other information in the commentary provided as of this date are subject to change. Diversification does not guarantee a profit or protect against all risk. Markets, economic forecast and aspects of specific investments can change from time to time based on a variety of individual interrelated or complex factors.
This disclosure statement cannot present all the risks and other significant aspects of investments, economies, or markets in which you may elect to transact from time to time. You should therefore carefully study investment arrangements in advance of making decisions about investing. Providing this information, which may be a value to you or others does not detract from an investor's responsibility to take all such steps and make all such inquiries as may be necessary to ensure a full understanding and familiarity with any potential future investment. If you are in doubt about the risks involved in trading or investment arrangements, or have not understood any aspect of this risk disclosure statement, you should seek independent professional advice. Please also note that Commerce does not offer tax, legal or specific estate planning advice. And while we may provide information or express general opinions from time to time, such information or opinions are not offered as professional tax or legal advice.
July 05,

The capital markets have been highly volatile for most of 2022, as investors come to grips with skyrocketing inflation, a suddenly hawkish Fed and geopolitical tensions. With such wild market activity, one of the most frequent questions we hear is, “When will we hit bottom?” In the latest Five Minutes with Scott Colbert, we list three things we’d like to see that could signal an end to the market drawdown.

 Disclosures: Commerce Trust Company is a division of Commerce Bank. Generally, non-depository investments offered in connection with Commerce Bank and its affiliates are not guaranteed, are not FDIC insured, and may lose value. Information provided is effective as of today, May 25, 2022, and is presented for the purpose of general education, information or illustration only. It is not to be considered as the opinion of Commerce Trust Company or Commerce Bank regarding any individual investment, investment account or market behavior. Neither Commerce nor any of its affiliates, officers, employees, or agents have made any recommendation or given any advice as to the terms, beneficial interest or profitability of any investment on market activity which may be referenced here, and this information may not be relied upon as such. Accordingly, you understand that you are always fully responsible for any investment transaction you choose to enter into, and that you shall not have relied only on any of the proceedings or following information for Commerce as a basis for any investment decision. In considering whether to trade or invest, you should inform yourself and be aware of the risks. The risk of loss from investing in securities and other investments can be substantial. You should consider whether investments entered into directly by you or on a discretionary managed basis through Commerce Trust Company or elsewhere are appropriate for you in light of your investment objectives, financial circumstances, tax status, your tolerance to risk, investment time horizon, and your investment experience. Past performance is no guarantee of future results, and any opinions and other information in the commentary provided as of this date are subject to change. Diversification does not guarantee a profit or protect against all risk. Markets, economic forecast and aspects of specific investments can change from time to time based on a variety of individual interrelated or complex factors. This disclosure statement cannot present all the risks and other significant aspects of investments, economies, or markets in which you may elect to transact from time to time. You should therefore carefully study investment arrangements in advance of making decisions about investing. Providing this information, which may be a value to you or others does not detract from an investor's responsibility to take all such steps and make all such inquiries as may be necessary to ensure a full understanding and familiarity with any potential future investment. If you are in doubt about the risks involved in trading or investment arrangements, or have not understood any aspect of this risk disclosure statement, you should seek independent professional advice. Please also note that Commerce does not offer tax, legal or specific estate planning advice. And while we may provide information or express general opinions from time to time, such information or opinions are not offered as professional tax or legal advice. 

In an effort to combat the worst inflation in 40 years, the Federal Reserve said it’s raising the federal funds rates by a half-point on May 4, and indicated more rate hikes could lie ahead. Do investors still need to worry about a recession? In our latest Five Minutes with Commerce Trust Chief Economist Scott Colbert, we examine into the Fed’s actions and look at several factors why we believe a severe downturn is not likely in the near term.

 Disclosures: Commerce Trust Company is a division of Commerce Bank. Generally, non-depository investments offered in connection with Commerce Bank and its affiliates are not guaranteed, are not FDIC insured, and may lose value. Information provided is effective as of today, May 4, 2022, and is presented for the purpose of general education, information or illustration only. It is not to be considered as the opinion of Commerce Trust Company or Commerce Bank regarding any individual investment, investment account or market behavior. Neither Commerce nor any of its affiliates, officers, employees, or agents have made any recommendation or given any advice as to the terms, beneficial interest or profitability of any investment on market activity which may be referenced here, and this information may not be relied upon as such. Accordingly, you understand that you are always fully responsible for any investment transaction you choose to enter into, and that you shall not have relied only on any of the proceedings or following information for Commerce as a basis for any investment decision. In considering whether to trade or invest, you should inform yourself and be aware of the risks. The risk of loss from investing in securities and other investments can be substantial. You should consider whether investments entered into directly by you or on a discretionary managed basis through Commerce Trust Company or elsewhere are appropriate for you in light of your investment objectives, financial circumstances, tax status, your tolerance to risk, investment time horizon, and your investment experience. Past performance is no guarantee of future results, and any opinions and other information in the commentary provided as of this date are subject to change. Diversification does not guarantee a profit or protect against all risk. Markets, economic forecast and aspects of specific investments can change from time to time based on a variety of individual interrelated or complex factors. This disclosure statement cannot present all the risks and other significant aspects of investments, economies, or markets in which you may elect to transact from time to time. You should therefore carefully study investment arrangements in advance of making decisions about investing. Providing this information, which may be a value to you or others does not detract from an investor's responsibility to take all such steps and make all such inquiries as may be necessary to ensure a full understanding and familiarity with any potential future investment. If you are in doubt about the risks involved in trading or investment arrangements, or have not understood any aspect of this risk disclosure statement, you should seek independent professional advice. Please also note that Commerce does not offer tax, legal or specific estate planning advice. And while we may provide information or express general opinions from time to time, such information or opinions are not offered as professional tax or legal advice. 

Both equity and bond markets are showing declines for the year, as surging inflation and rising interest rates squeeze stock prices and impact portfolio returns. What reaction should investors expect from the Federal Reserve? In the latest edition of Five Minutes with Commerce Trust Chief Economist Scott Colbert, we examine what steps the Fed could take in attempting to find the elusive neutral rate, an interest rate level that neither spurs nor restricts economic growth.  

Disclosures: Commerce Trust Company is a division of Commerce Bank. Generally, non-depository investments offered in connection with Commerce Bank and its affiliates are not guaranteed, are not FDIC insured, and may lose value. Information provided is effective as of today, April 8, 2022, and is presented for the purpose of general education, information or illustration only. It is not to be considered as the opinion of Commerce Trust Company or Commerce Bank regarding any individual investment, investment account or market behavior. Neither Commerce nor any of its affiliates, officers, employees, or agents have made any recommendation or given any advice as to the terms, beneficial interest or profitability of any investment on market activity which may be referenced here, and this information may not be relied upon as such. Accordingly, you understand that you are always fully responsible for any investment transaction you choose to enter into, and that you shall not have relied only on any of the proceedings or following information for Commerce as a basis for any investment decision. In considering whether to trade or invest, you should inform yourself and be aware of the risks. The risk of loss from investing in securities and other investments can be substantial. You should consider whether investments entered into directly by you or on a discretionary managed basis through Commerce Trust Company or elsewhere are appropriate for you in light of your investment objectives, financial circumstances, tax status, your tolerance to risk, investment time horizon, and your investment experience. Past performance is no guarantee of future results, and any opinions and other information in the commentary provided as of this date are subject to change. Diversification does not guarantee a profit or protect against all risk. Markets, economic forecast and aspects of specific investments can change from time to time based on a variety of individual interrelated or complex factors. This disclosure statement cannot present all the risks and other significant aspects of investments, economies, or markets in which you may elect to transact from time to time. You should therefore carefully study investment arrangements in advance of making decisions about investing. Providing this information, which may be a value to you or others does not detract from an investor's responsibility to take all such steps and make all such inquiries as may be necessary to ensure a full understanding and familiarity with any potential future investment. If you are in doubt about the risks involved in trading or investment arrangements, or have not understood any aspect of this risk disclosure statement, you should seek independent professional advice. Please also note that Commerce does not offer tax, legal or specific estate planning advice. And while we may provide information or express general opinions from time to time, such information or opinions are not offered as professional tax or legal advice. 

In this segment of Five Minutes With Commerce Trust Company Chief Economist Scott Colbert, Scott dives into some pressing client portfolio questions, offering up much needed insight to the complex factors that will drive Federal Reserve policy on interest rate hikes slated for the balance of 2022.  Despite the global economic headwinds of the Russian-Ukraine war, Scott believes the Fed is back to the idea of seven interest rate hikes this year with a bias toward the high side to fight back U.S. inflation.  In addition, look for Quantitative Easing monetary policy to be reversed in May as the Fed doubles-down on its effort to corral inflation.  While U.S. growth forecasts have been pulled back, Scott believes modest growth is still attainable and chances for a recession this year so far are minimal. 





 Disclosures: Commerce Trust Company is a division of Commerce Bank. Generally, non-depository investments offered in connection with Commerce Bank and its affiliates are not guaranteed, are not FDIC insured, and may lose value. Information provided is effective as of today, March 17, 2022, and is presented for the purpose of general education, information or illustration only. It is not to be considered as the opinion of Commerce Trust Company or Commerce Bank regarding any individual investment, investment account or market behavior. Neither Commerce nor any of its affiliates, officers, employees, or agents have made any recommendation or given any advice as to the terms, beneficial interest or profitability of any investment on market activity which may be referenced here, and this information may not be relied upon as such. Accordingly, you understand that you are always fully responsible for any investment transaction you choose to enter into, and that you shall not have relied only on any of the proceedings or following information for Commerce as a basis for any investment decision. In considering whether to trade or invest, you should inform yourself and be aware of the risks. The risk of loss from investing in securities and other investments can be substantial. You should consider whether investments entered into directly by you or on a discretionary managed basis through Commerce Trust Company or elsewhere are appropriate for you in light of your investment objectives, financial circumstances, tax status, your tolerance to risk, investment time horizon, and your investment experience. Past performance is no guarantee of future results, and any opinions and other information in the commentary provided as of this date are subject to change. Diversification does not guarantee a profit or protect against all risk. Markets, economic forecast and aspects of specific investments can change from time to time based on a variety of individual interrelated or complex factors. This disclosure statement cannot present all the risks and other significant aspects of investments, economies, or markets in which you may elect to transact from time to time. You should therefore carefully study investment arrangements in advance of making decisions about investing. Providing this information, which may be a value to you or others does not detract from an investor's responsibility to take all such steps and make all such inquiries as may be necessary to ensure a full understanding and familiarity with any potential future investment. If you are in doubt about the risks involved in trading or investment arrangements, or have not understood any aspect of this risk disclosure statement, you should seek independent professional advice. Please also note that Commerce does not offer tax, legal or specific estate planning advice. And while we may provide information or express general opinions from time to time, such information or opinions are not offered as professional tax or legal advice.