Conversations with Commerce Trust

In this edition of 5 Minutes with Commerce Trust Chief Economist Scott Colbert, Scott reminds us that global markets have over time been confronted with many other geo-political crises similar to the current Russian-Ukraine conflict.  Indeed, stock markets had until this week relatively discounted the long-term impact of the Russian invasion, but near-term uncertainty seemingly prevails as commodity and energy prices have dramatically soared.  On one hand, recent robust job creation shows the U.S. economy is still poised for some growth this year, yet on the other hand many wonder if the Federal Reserve’s plan to start raising interest rates to rein in galloping inflation is too much medicine to take right now.




 Disclosures: Commerce Trust Company is a division of Commerce Bank. Generally, non-depository investments offered in connection with Commerce Bank and its affiliates are not guaranteed, are not FDIC insured, and may lose value. Information provided is effective as of today, March 4, 2022, and is presented for the purpose of general education, information or illustration only. It is not to be considered as the opinion of Commerce Trust Company or Commerce Bank regarding any individual investment, investment account or market behavior. Neither Commerce nor any of its affiliates, officers, employees, or agents have made any recommendation or given any advice as to the terms, beneficial interest or profitability of any investment on market activity which may be referenced here, and this information may not be relied upon as such. Accordingly, you understand that you are always fully responsible for any investment transaction you choose to enter into, and that you shall not have relied only on any of the proceedings or following information for Commerce as a basis for any investment decision. In considering whether to trade or invest, you should inform yourself and be aware of the risks. The risk of loss from investing in securities and other investments can be substantial. You should consider whether investments entered into directly by you or on a discretionary managed basis through Commerce Trust Company or elsewhere are appropriate for you in light of your investment objectives, financial circumstances, tax status, your tolerance to risk, investment time horizon, and your investment experience. Past performance is no guarantee of future results, and any opinions and other information in the commentary provided as of this date are subject to change. Diversification does not guarantee a profit or protect against all risk. Markets, economic forecast and aspects of specific investments can change from time to time based on a variety of individual interrelated or complex factors. This disclosure statement cannot present all the risks and other significant aspects of investments, economies, or markets in which you may elect to transact from time to time. You should therefore carefully study investment arrangements in advance of making decisions about investing. Providing this information, which may be a value to you or others does not detract from an investor's responsibility to take all such steps and make all such inquiries as may be necessary to ensure a full understanding and familiarity with any potential future investment. If you are in doubt about the risks involved in trading or investment arrangements, or have not understood any aspect of this risk disclosure statement, you should seek independent professional advice. Please also note that Commerce does not offer tax, legal or specific estate planning advice. And while we may provide information or express general opinions from time to time, such information or opinions are not offered as professional tax or legal advice. 

It is hard to escape the news of escalating tensions between Russia and Ukraine, and this turmoil will continue to dominate the news as analysts try to sort through the potential impacts on people and the global economy.  In this edition of 5 Minutes with Commerce Trust Chief Economist Scott Colbert, Scott says it will be a challenge for anyone to handicap the potential outcomes of this fluid international drama.  Somewhat behind the scenes as this story unfolds is the concern that the Federal Reserve will move from raising interest rates four times this year as anticipated starting in March to maybe as many as six or seven to control rampant inflation.  Stocks typically don't do well when the Fed is aggressively raising rates. 

 Disclosures: Commerce Trust Company is a division of Commerce Bank. Generally, non-depository investments offered in connection with Commerce Bank and its affiliates are not guaranteed, are not FDIC insured, and may lose value. Information provided is effective as of today, February 18, 2022, and is presented for the purpose of general education, information or illustration only. It is not to be considered as the opinion of Commerce Trust Company or Commerce Bank regarding any individual investment, investment account or market behavior. Neither Commerce nor any of its affiliates, officers, employees, or agents have made any recommendation or given any advice as to the terms, beneficial interest or profitability of any investment on market activity which may be referenced here, and this information may not be relied upon as such. Accordingly, you understand that you are always fully responsible for any investment transaction you choose to enter into, and that you shall not have relied only on any of the proceedings or following information for Commerce as a basis for any investment decision. In considering whether to trade or invest, you should inform yourself and be aware of the risks. The risk of loss from investing in securities and other investments can be substantial. You should consider whether investments entered into directly by you or on a discretionary managed basis through Commerce Trust Company or elsewhere are appropriate for you in light of your investment objectives, financial circumstances, tax status, your tolerance to risk, investment time horizon, and your investment experience. Past performance is no guarantee of future results, and any opinions and other information in the commentary provided as of this date are subject to change. Diversification does not guarantee a profit or protect against all risk. Markets, economic forecast and aspects of specific investments can change from time to time based on a variety of individual interrelated or complex factors. This disclosure statement cannot present all the risks and other significant aspects of investments, economies, or markets in which you may elect to transact from time to time. You should therefore carefully study investment arrangements in advance of making decisions about investing. Providing this information, which may be a value to you or others does not detract from an investor's responsibility to take all such steps and make all such inquiries as may be necessary to ensure a full understanding and familiarity with any potential future investment. If you are in doubt about the risks involved in trading or investment arrangements, or have not understood any aspect of this risk disclosure statement, you should seek independent professional advice. Please also note that Commerce does not offer tax, legal or specific estate planning advice. And while we may provide information or express general opinions from time to time, such information or opinions are not offered as professional tax or legal advice. 

While there has been a lot of tumultuous financial market news to digest as of late, there is still a solid underpinning of economic news that bodes well overall for the year.  In this edition of “Five Minutes With Chief Economist Scott Colbert, CFA,” Scott explains why he thinks that recent volatility is a natural market correction in the midst of a broader economic expansion, and that's a lot different than a bear market that accompanies a recession. He expects to see the markets pull back, possibly regain their footing later in the first quarter, and then make some forward progress on growth.



Disclosures: Commerce Trust Company is a division of Commerce Bank. Generally, non-depository investments offered in connection with Commerce Bank and its affiliates are not guaranteed, are not FDIC insured, and may lose value. Information provided is effective as of today, January 28, 2022, and is presented for the purpose of general education, information or illustration only. It is not to be considered as the opinion of Commerce Trust Company or Commerce Bank regarding any individual investment, investment account or market behavior. Neither Commerce nor any of its affiliates, officers, employees, or agents have made any recommendation or given any advice as to the terms, beneficial interest or profitability of any investment on market activity which may be referenced here, and this information may not be relied upon as such. Accordingly, you understand that you are always fully responsible for any investment transaction you choose to enter into, and that you shall not have relied only on any of the proceedings or following information for Commerce as a basis for any investment decision. In considering whether to trade or invest, you should inform yourself and be aware of the risks. The risk of loss from investing in securities and other investments can be substantial. You should consider whether investments entered into directly by you or on a discretionary managed basis through Commerce Trust Company or elsewhere are appropriate for you in light of your investment objectives, financial circumstances, tax status, your tolerance to risk, investment time horizon, and your investment experience. Past performance is no guarantee of future results, and any opinions and other information in the commentary provided as of this date are subject to change. Diversification does not guarantee a profit or protect against all risk. Markets, economic forecast and aspects of specific investments can change from time to time based on a variety of individual interrelated or complex factors. This disclosure statement cannot present all the risks and other significant aspects of investments, economies, or markets in which you may elect to transact from time to time. You should therefore carefully study investment arrangements in advance of making decisions about investing. Providing this information, which may be a value to you or others does not detract from an investor's responsibility to take all such steps and make all such inquiries as may be necessary to ensure a full understanding and familiarity with any potential future investment. If you are in doubt about the risks involved in trading or investment arrangements, or have not understood any aspect of this risk disclosure statement, you should seek independent professional advice. Please also note that Commerce does not offer tax, legal or specific estate planning advice. And while we may provide information or express general opinions from time to time, such information or opinions are not offered as professional tax or legal advice. 

Scott explains why he believes U.S. economic growth could still exceed 4% this year despite the headwinds from spiking inflation and the knock-on effects of stubborn supply chain disruptions during the pandemic.  Key drivers of Scott’s optimistic growth picture include the continued favorable impact of ultra-low interest rates, ongoing fiscal stimulus, and the seldom-discussed effect of excess savings that consumers currently have on the sidelines. By some measures, this built-up excess could be in the neighborhood of $2.7 trillion, and will eventually find its way back into the economy.

 Disclosures: Commerce Trust Company is a division of Commerce Bank. Generally, non-depository investments offered in connection with Commerce Bank and its affiliates are not guaranteed, are not FDIC insured, and may lose value. Information provided is effective as of today, January 16, 2022, and is presented for the purpose of general education, information or illustration only. It is not to be considered as the opinion of Commerce Trust Company or Commerce Bank regarding any individual investment, investment account or market behavior. Neither Commerce nor any of its affiliates, officers, employees, or agents have made any recommendation or given any advice as to the terms, beneficial interest or profitability of any investment on market activity which may be referenced here, and this information may not be relied upon as such. Accordingly, you understand that you are always fully responsible for any investment transaction you choose to enter into, and that you shall not have relied only on any of the proceedings or following information for Commerce as a basis for any investment decision. In considering whether to trade or invest, you should inform yourself and be aware of the risks. The risk of loss from investing in securities and other investments can be substantial. You should consider whether investments entered into directly by you or on a discretionary managed basis through Commerce Trust Company or elsewhere are appropriate for you in light of your investment objectives, financial circumstances, tax status, your tolerance to risk, investment time horizon, and your investment experience. Past performance is no guarantee of future results, and any opinions and other information in the commentary provided as of this date are subject to change. Diversification does not guarantee a profit or protect against all risk. Markets, economic forecast and aspects of specific investments can change from time to time based on a variety of individual interrelated or complex factors. This disclosure statement cannot present all the risks and other significant aspects of investments, economies, or markets in which you may elect to transact from time to time. You should therefore carefully study investment arrangements in advance of making decisions about investing. Providing this information, which may be a value to you or others does not detract from an investor's responsibility to take all such steps and make all such inquiries as may be necessary to ensure a full understanding and familiarity with any potential future investment. If you are in doubt about the risks involved in trading or investment arrangements, or have not understood any aspect of this risk disclosure statement, you should seek independent professional advice. Please also note that Commerce does not offer tax, legal or specific estate planning advice. And while we may provide information or express general opinions from time to time, such information or opinions are not offered as professional tax or legal advice. 

News of the omicron variant is still having an impact as stock investors are feeling bearish symptoms again with futures trending downward. Yesterday’s Cyber Monday online sales experienced subdued activity levels as well. Uncertainty about the effectiveness of current vaccines on the new variant has the Federal Reserve reassessing its outlook, especially as it pertains to growth, jobs, and spiking inflation. In this edition of “5 Minutes With Scott Colbert,” Scott candidly discusses the macro forces at play, and how volatility in the markets may now increase in the near term even as the current quarter had gotten off to a strong start.  

How will consumers react to an inflation rate that hit a three-decade high last month? What impact will the $1.2 trillion infrastructure bill have? See Commerce Trust Company Chief Economist Scott Colbert’s insights on these macro forces

https://info.commercetrustcompany.com/five-minutes-with-colbert-1116

Year-to-date, the S&P 500 has risen over 23% and company earnings reports continue to exceed expectations, but spiking inflation is holding back growth. See what Chief Economist Scott Colbert has to say about how the 4th quarter will unfold. https://info.commercetrustcompany.com/five-minutes-with-colbert-1029

In this edition of “Five Minutes With Scott Colbert, CFA,” Scott explains three wild cards in play that affect the economy in the near term:  1) When will the debt ceiling be extended; 2) How will China’s slowing growth affect the global economic picture; and 3) How “sticky” is the inflation spike and what will it do to interest rates?  

https://info.commercetrustcompany.com/five-minutes-with-colbert-101