Cortes Currents

Roy L Hales/ Cortes Currents - I volunteered for the NDP Party during the 1968 election. Aside from that, the only campaign headquarters I’ve stepped inside was Elizabeth May’s Salt Spring Island office in 2019. So when in the midst of doing errands in Campbell River, I found myself with more than an hour to spare, it seemed like a fun idea to visit a campaign headquarters. Somebody told me the ‘red guys’ are behind Save On Foods, which is how I ended up at Jennifer Lash’s headquarters.

After returning home, I learned that yet another poll has been conducted in our riding. The first two were not connected to any political party, but the LIberals comissioned #3. Like poll #2 which was not their’s, it shows the Liberals having taken over the second place slot. After contacting 318 voters in North Island Powell River between April 20 and 21, Spadina Strategies reported that 37% intended to vote for the Conservatives, 30% for the Liberals, 25% for the NDP, 5% Green and 2% were undecided.

The projection website Poliwave is also reporting a shift in voter intention. On April 18, they stated the #2 party in our riding was the NDP. Their latest projection, published on Wednesday April 23, showed the Conservatives at 45%, the Liberals trailing at 29%, the NDP at 20% and the Green’s at 5%.

This is not what I intended to report, when I dropped in at the Liberal Party’s Campbell River office on Friday. Jennifer Lash was away, knocking on doors, but there were five people gathered in the entrance when I arrived. A young woman immediately detached herself from their conversation. She was one of the four staffers from Ottawa who are working on the Liberal campaign. Sarah Manney gave me permission  to walk around the office taking pictures and interviewing people. I started with her.

 Sarah Manney: “Well, I'm Sarah, I'm the campaign manager. I was working in Ottawa, but grew up in Comox. My family's in Nanaimo. When I found out that Jen was running, I knew her in Ottawa and I said, ‘this is the candidate I've always dreamed of for my hometown.’ What better person could I ask for to represent the people I grew up with.’ So it was just a dream to be able to come work for her and try to make that a reality here in North Island Powell River.”

“My whole family's been knocking on doors. We have Jen's family. We have at least five times the number of volunteers that we've ever had in this riding. It's amazing just to see the energy. The other day someone remarked, ‘I've never seen so many Liberals in one place.’ It was just this magical feeling like we've all waited for this moment to have someone like Jen to rally around.”

The next person I interviewed looked a lot like Jennifer Lash, for good reason.

“My name is Wendy Lash. I am Jennifer's sister.” 

Cortes Currents: How did you end up working for her in a campaign office? 

Wendy had not been expecting that question, but after a few hesitant seconds she suddenly sounded like an old pro.

“Well, how can you not support somebody when they're living their purpose? Jen has had a fabulous career of doing good for many people and many things in Canada, but right now -  this is an important time for us! She's bravely taken this on and she's doing a fabulous job. When we heard that she was going to be doing this,  as a family, we knew we needed to support her. So we booked our tickets and we've come from Ontario. We are thrilled to be here and in action.”

Cortes Currents: Whereabouts in Ontario are you from? 

Wendy Lash: “My husband and I are from Barrie.  Our sister Catherine is coming from Toronto. Jen's kids  are coming back from Ontario and they're also here with us.”

Manada AUfochs Gillespie/ Folk U - On April 4, 2025, host Manda Aufochs-Gillespie was joined by Dayna Davis and Christina Macwilliam to chat about education, the importance of play, attachment, and children’s development. This is a fascinating conversation with two incredible Cortesian educators.

Folk U Radio is taking old school viral every Friday at 1 p.m. and Mondays at 6:30 p.m./Wednesday at 6 a.m. @CKTZ89.5FM or livestreamed at cortesradio.ca. Find repeats anytime at www.folku.ca/podcasts.

Roy L Hales/Cortes Currents - NDP candidate Tanille Johnson will coming to Gorge Hall on Cortes Island. This is the last in a series of Meet and Greets organized by the Cortes Island Climate Action Network that has also included meetings with Green Party candidate Jessica Wegg and Liberal candidate Jennifer Lash. Conservative candiate Aaron Gunn was also invited, but has not taken advantage of this. As I am going to be off island when Tanille is here, we had an interview ahead of time.

Cortes Currents: What’s the big question on voters’ minds during this election?

Tanille Johnson:  “Oh man, there's a lot of big questions right now!Honestly, what I spend most of my day talking about is people are terrified at the possibiloity of having Conservative representation in the federal government, and like ‘what's the strategic vote for North Island Power River?’”

“I really end up being in a lot of these conversations, breaking down strategic voting, what it means and apologizing for it. We're in this situation because our Liberal government did not follow through with its promise of proportional representation, which would've allowed people to vote for the person that they felt was going to do the best job for them. We are now essentially getting shoved into a two party system that nobody wants. We don't want to mimic our United States relations to the south, but here we are. That's a big discussion right now across the board. Every riding is talking about it.”

“It doesn't discount the real threat of all the ongoing tariffs from Trump. It doesn't discount the threat of annexation that Trump is bringing. It doesn't diminish our healthcare crisis, our housing crisis, or our opioid crisis, but right now it feels like people are most fearful of a Conservative government.”

Cortes Currents: Two polls have just come out,—one by Research co suggests you’re best placed to stop a Conservative win, the other by Mainstreet Research says it’s the Liberals. What do you make of this?

Tanille Johnson: “I t honestly doesn't make sense because there is such a stark contrast, there shouldn't be a stark contrast at all. I think it's fairly well known that Mainstreet is operated by Conservative pollsters.”

Cortes Currents:   I wasn't aware of that, so I did a quick fact check. There's a list of national polls on the 338Canada website. The vast majority of the 94 polls taken between April 1st and April 21nd, reported that the Liberals were leading in this race, but there are 6 polls that stated the Conservatives were either leading or tied with the Liberals. 5 of those 6 ‘outlying’ polls were taken by Mainstream Research.

Tanille Johnson: “I think it was 571 people out of like a hundred thousand voters. Like, if you had a hundred thousand people and you only asked 500 of them a question, are you really going to solidly depend on that answer for whatever your decision making is moving forward? I would hope not, because that is a tiny sample size.”

Cortes Currents: Tell me some highlights of the campaign for you.

Tanille Johnson: “Here's a super funny one. We were door knocking in Campbell River just the other week. I knocked on a door and this gal opened and she was so excited to see me. She kissed both of her hands and then put her hands on either sides of my face. She's like, 'keep doing what you're doing.' It was just so cute and awesome.”

“It's been a highlight watching people get creative with their support. There's been some really cool like self-made bumper stickers that say, 'Go Tanille' or 'Vote NDP, Vote Tanille.’"

“It was a huge honor to have Megan Hildebrandt donate a vote Tanille Design, to be able to screen print 'Vote Tanille' t-shirts by hand in Powell River. That was super, super cool and amazing.”

“It's been really just an honor to travel the whole riding and get to meet people from all over the place and have the time to sit and listen to their concerns.”

Roy L Hales/Cortes Currents - With only five days of campaigning left until the election, Liberal candidate Jennifer Lash says the energy on the ground in North Island–Powell River is palpable.

 “We've been door knocking, doing ‘meet and greets’ and town halls and phone banking. I am  hearing just an amazing amount of support. So I'm loving it,” she said. 

“This poll to me reflects  what people are telling us. So I am optimistic that the undecided will come over and join us and that we can send a Liberal to Ottawa.” 

She was referring to the poll that Mainstreet Research released on Monday, April 21, which is one of the reasons I wanted to speak with her. You can access it on the Mainstreet website, but need to pay. I also wanted to ask about last night’s all candidates meeting in Campbell River, which was cancelled at the last minute.

Cortes Currents: So tell me about this poll.

Jennifer Lash: “ We did not commission this poll, that's why it's behind a paywall. If we commissioned it, we would own it and we could share it. What it shows is that while the Conservatives are still in the lead, the Liberals are second and within the Conservative’s margin of error, while the NDP are in third, quite considerably.”

Cortes Currents: Jennifer sent that data, which shows the Conservatives at 35%, the Liberals at 27% and the NDP at 18%. As this is the property of Mainstreet Research, I cannot post the chart but the Liberal campaign staff have drawn up a chart of their own. 

Jennifer Lash:  “The margin of error is plus or minus 4.1%, with a 95% confidence level.” 

Given that they are only 8% apart, this poll indicates that it is possible, though unlikely, that Liberals are actually tied with the Conservatives

In another poll, released on Sunday and commissioned by the David Suzuki Foundation, it was the NDP who came in second and the Liberals trailing considerably behind.  

Jennifer Lash:  “What this tells me is that there's going to be a lot of different polls and projections that say different things. I know there's a lot of angst out there amongst people who particularly are worried about the Conservatives winning and really looking for some direction on how they should cast their vote so that they can unite as much as possible to keep the Conservatives out. But right now there's no data that says exactly what you should do, and I don't think there ever will.”  

“Some people are going to choose to believe some polls and not others, and that's totally fine. People can do that, but I think what it comes right down to is there is no definitive poll that's going to tell people exactly what to do.  People need to vote for either the Prime Minister, the party, or the MP that they want.” 

“What we're hearing is overwhelmingly, people want to have Mark Carney as the Prime Minister,  which means you have to vote Liberal.  I know  that people say that Carney's just going to win no matter what, but that's not necessarily true.”

“If we really want Mark Carney as Prime Minister, people need to vote for the Liberal party. If people want a member of Parliament who is part of Mark Carney's government and can help deliver programs, then people need to vote for the Liberal party and that means voting for me.”

Cortes Currents: I also wanted to ask about the all candidates meeting that was cancelled last night.

Roy L Hales/Cortes Currents - With just six days remaining until election day, a new poll reveals the Conservatives hold a strong lead in the North Island—Powell River riding. Among the 402 eligible voters surveyed between April 17 and April 19, 45% said they intend to vote for Conservative candidate Aaron Gunn.

NDP candidate Tanille Johnston trails in second with 23%, followed by Liberal contender Jennifer Lash at 13%. Both Jessica Wegg of the Green Party and Paul Macknight of the People’s Party received 2% support, while independent candidate Glen Staples sits at 1%. Meanwhile, 15% of voters remain undecided.There is some good news for retiring MP Rachjel Blaney whose performance was approved by 51% of the respondents. 40% disapproved.

Pierre Poilievre of the Conservative Party is the top-rated federal leader among voters in this constituency, with 53% support. He is followed by Liberal leader Mark Carney at 42%, NDP leader Jagmeet Singh at 41%, Green Party co-leaders Elizabeth May and Jonathan Pedneault at 27%, and People’s Party leader Maxime Bernier at 19%.

Poilievre draws strong backing from men (53%), as well as from voters aged 35 to 54 (48%) and those 55 and older (49%). In contrast, Carney leads among younger voters aged 18 to 34, with 45% support, and the two men have an almost equal following among female votres. (Carney 35%, Poilievre 34%).

The poll was sponsored by the David Suzuki Foundation and conducted by Vancouver-based Research Co, led by Mario Canseco, a veteran public opinion researcher since 2003. Canseco is a regular political commentator and columnist for Glacier Media, with work published in the Vancouver Sun, Globe and Mail, and National Observer.

In related news, Research co also carried out a National survey which found that 43% of decided voters would vote Liberal as opposed to 38% for the Conservatives.

This fits a pattern that all but one Canadian pollster has been reporting this week. The exception being Mainstreet Research, which reported a Conservative victory in 2 out of 3 surveys.

If the election were to take place today CBC Polltracker, which draws upon the data from all polls, states the odds of a Liberal victory 96%. 338Canada states the odds are 90%. Both companies state the most likely scenario is the LIberals will form a majority government.

On Vancouver Island, 338Canada’s projection is that the four northern ridings will turn Conservative, but the only ‘CPC Safe seat’ (which means victory is almost certain) is North Island Powell River.

The three south Vancouver Island ridings are all ‘toss-ups’, but Elizabeth May now has a slim lead in Saanich-Gulf Islands, the Liberals are ahead by a nose in Victoria and the Conservatives in Esquimalt, Saanich - Sooke.

Roy L Hales/ Cortes Currents - The federal election in North Island–Powell River (NIPR) may be far closer than recent projections suggest, but the ‘progressive’ vote is split between three parties (Green. Liberal and NDP). Some people are urging voters to rally behind a single alternative to Conservative candidate Aaron Gunn.

The Votewell and Smart Voting websites both declared the strategic vote in our riding is the NDP candidate Tanille Johnson. As of Thursday, April 17, Johnson became the 18th Canadian candidate officially endorsed by Lead Now. So did the participants in a recent virtual townhall meeting on Cortes Island.

Folk U -Tune in on April 18th for a special collaborative FolkU episode, featuring Emily Bootle, a funeral director and founder of DeathCare BC. This is a live recording featuring Emily’s presentation at the Cortes DeathCare Collective’s AGM, and it covers body-care, green burials, and the importance of planning ahead.

Folk U Radio is taking old school viral every Friday at 1 p.m. and Mondays at 6:30 p.m./Wednesday at 6 a.m. @CKTZ89.5FM or livestreamed at cortesradio.ca. Find repeats anytime at www.folku.ca/podcasts.

Roy L Hales/Cortes Currents - Jennifer Pickford will be showing her documentary ECO Warriors at Mansons Hall on Tuesday April 22. 

 “This film is telling the story of several environmental activists who have faced imprisonment for their actions, as well as the actual and real threat of being labeled terrorists for protecting the land and the forest that they love,” she explained.

 

“Eco Warriors is about 12 years old. It's one of my earlier works, but following on the footsteps of last year's Earth Day screening of 'Sacred India, A Plastic Revolution,' I wanted to show another film because I felt that not only is it still a relevant topic, but also it's just nice to have that continuity of having an Earth Day screening here on Cortes Island.”

Unedited audio from Green candidate Jessica Wegg's meeting on Cortes Island by Cortes Currents (https://cortescurrents.ca/)

Roy L Hales/Cortes Currents - Green Party candidate Jessica Wegg came to Gorge Hall, on Wednesday, April 16th, 2025. She won’t be the next Member of Parliament for North Island Powell River.

“We commissioned a poll at our riding level. I think they made the phone calls March 20th to 24th, and it matched what 338Canada is saying. The Conservatives will likely win and the progressive vote will be split pretty evenly by the NDP and the Liberals. As long as the NDP and the Liberals are both running, neither party will get in,” she explained.

“My numbers were less than 10%. If you added me to either one, it wasn't going to cross the threshold of the number of votes the Conservatives were expected to get. We are actually saying this is a great time to feel like you can vote Green because it's not a wasted vote.  We need 2% nationally to maintain official party status, which means we get resources in Ottawa, we get to participate in the question period, we get to be on committees, that kind of thing. Without that 2% national level, we lose official party status and we lose the ability to really participate in government in an effective way.  It really, really matters to us and if you want to be able to have a Green party in the future, when we do get proportional representation, we need to keep as many votes as possible.” 

Cortes Currents: How important is it to have a Green presence in the election? 

Jessica Wegg: “So, so important.  Shakespeare said, ‘Though she be but little she is fierce’ (A MIdsummer’s Nights Dream). Greens are little, but we use that little power that we have to come up with big, wild ideas that the big parties aren't going to have.”

“They don't want to make people think they're thinking too far outside the box. People are happy with the status quo, generally speaking. They don't want to waiver. That's how the big parties feed, is ‘how do I keep the people who we already have in this box.’ But we are thinking of big ideas that nobody else is thinking of and we bring them to the table, we bring them to the big parties that have the power in parliament and we say,' have you even thought about doing something like this?’ Or, ‘where is that in your planning?’"  

“We do what we can to hold them to account. All of  the Green candidates across the country  are showing up and they're showing that there are people who care. There are people who acknowledge the climate crisis that we're in and we're going to keep showing up.” 

“I think it's also important because  Canada  is getting awfully close right now to  a two party system, which is not healthy for a democracy. It's dangerous to have just two parties and we're all falling into one camp or the other. We cannot let that happen. We need to keep showing up as these small parties. We need to keep fighting for presence so that we can have these creative big ideas that nobody else is going to say out loud because they don't want to step on anybody's toes or make anybody uncomfortable with the idea of something new or different or big. We cannot progress as a country without doing new and different and big things. So we need the Green party to show up and keep bringing our creative ideas across the country.”