NIO reports Q4 2025 earnings tomorrow morning. Potentially the first quarterly

profit in the company's 11-year history.

Tonight — a quick honest look at where NIO, Xpeng, and Li Auto all stand

heading into 2026, based on the latest Chinese financial analysis.

WHAT WE COVER:

— Why all three are navigating serious headwinds simultaneously in 2026

— The ES8 launch wave is normalizing — NIO's real next catalysts are L80 + ES7

— Xpeng down nearly 50% YoY in February and what it means

— Li Auto's 2025 underperformance and the new L9 redemption bet

— Why NIO still comes out strongest in this comparison heading into tomorrow

— NIO's Q4 profit guidance: 700M–1.2B yuan non-GAAP — what to watch

Full earnings breakdown tomorrow.

Courtside Financial. Hosted by Obi.

Three days from NIO's Q4 2025 earnings — and potentially its first-ever quarterly

profit. This week delivered three major stories that every NIO investor needs

to understand before Monday.

WHAT WE COVER:

— NIO hits 2 million electric drive systems produced in Hefei — 23 months to

double from 1 million, 99.6% pass rate, world-first 925V winding technology

— NIO revamps European operations: Germany, Netherlands & Sweden shifting to

asset-light distributor model — why this is actually the right strategic call

— Norway retains direct sales and why that distinction matters

— BYD's 2nd-gen Blade Battery: 9-minute 0-97% charge, 1,500kW peak chargers,

20,000 new stations planned — honest breakdown of what it means for NIO's swap thesis

— Why NIO's 3,750 built swap stations beating BYD's 20,000 station plan

— Why the ES8 buyer and the BYD buyer are not the same person

— March 10th earnings: what to watch and why this report is different from any before it

Courtside Financial. Hosted by Obi. NIO bull. Objective lens.

A viewer asked: if NIO trades in Hong Kong too, why is the volume low over there as well?

It's one of the best questions from yesterday's episode — and the answer actually

strengthens the thesis rather than challenging it.

In this quick 5-minute take, Obi breaks down:

— Why the Hang Seng is still below its 2007 peak nearly 20 years later

— Why domestic Chinese retail and global institutional money are both cautious right now

— Why low volume on both NYSE and Hong Kong confirms this is a global sentiment problem

— Why the unlock, when it comes, will hit both exchanges at the same time

— 6 days to NIO's potential first-ever quarterly profit on March 10th

Follow-up to Episode 2: "Why Won't They Let It Fly?"

Courtside Financial. Hosted by Obi.

NIO is 7 days from potentially its first quarterly profit ever. The stock is at $4.59 —

down nearly 88% over five years. In this episode, Obi breaks down the honest reason why:

it's not the business. It's the world around it.

WHAT WE COVER:

— The Iran conflict & oil price surge — why it matters for Chinese equities right now

— US-China trade: structural shifts, 100% tariffs, and Trump's review of Chinese automakers

— William Li's 2023 Financial Times warning about US protectionism — and why it's more relevant than ever

— Tesla up 37.86% on conceptual bets. NIO down 87.96% on real progress. The sentiment gap explained.

— BYD overtook Tesla in global EV sales — and is still down 16.74% in the past year

— Michael Burry's warning today about VIE structures & the Cayman Island shell trap

— The ADR vs Hong Kong listing breakdown — what six-year holders need to know

— Why Wall Street sentiment is a self-fulfilling prophecy in both directions

— March 10th earnings: why NIO's first profit matters beyond just the numbers

Courtside Financial is hosted by Obi. Business, tech, and the EV space —

with a perspective, not just a recap.

Back after two and a half weeks of work travel, the flu, and swapping my Alfa Romeo Stelvio for a Volvo C40 EV. Life happened — but NIO didn't slow down.

In this episode, Obi breaks down everything that dropped between February 24 and March 1, 2026: product launches, chip news, infrastructure milestones, a major European partnership, and the February delivery numbers.

WHAT WE COVER:

— ES9 flagship SUV: April reveal, late May pricing, June 1 deliveries

— Onvo L80: two-hour launch event in April, deliveries mid-May

— ES8 chip shortage #2 — audio chip this time, NIO's workaround explained

— NIO's chip unit (Shenji NX9031) raises over $290M, valued near $1.4B

— Spring Festival battery swap records: 2M+ services, 177K swaps in a single day

— NIO x Bosch strategic deal signed during German Chancellor Merz's China visit

— February deliveries: 20,797 total — NIO brand up 65.8% year-over-year

— ES8 hits 70,000 cumulative deliveries

— March 10 earnings: NIO's first quarterly profit on the horizon?

— 7-year auto loans extended + purchase tax subsidies explained

Courtside Financial covers business and tech with a focus on the EV space. Hosted by Obi. No fluff. No hype. Real analysis.

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NIO ES8 crushing it + Chinese robotaxi army takes Abu Dhabi. Both matter for NIO bulls.

ES8 MOMENTUM:Approaching 60,000 deliveries:

• 50K hit Jan 18
• Adding 10K every 2 weeks
• Dec: 22,258 units (46% of NIO's 48,135 total)

The Win:

• 406,800 yuan ($58,500) starting price
• China's best-selling large SUV (December)
• Top vehicle above 400K yuan price
• Trajectory: 2.8K → 6.7K → 10.7K → 22.3K (Sep-Dec)
• Wait times: 26 weeks → 11-12 weeks (production ramping)

Revenue Impact: 22K monthly x 406K yuan = $1.2B+ annual run rate ONE MODEL.

Proves NIO can build premium volume winners. If replicated across lineup = path to 600-700K.

ABU DHABI ROBOTAXI TAKEOVER:

Commercial Operations Now:

• WeRide: Uber-integrated, fully driverless, 15-21 trips/day, Q1 2026 profitability target
• Baidu Apollo: Full driverless, 200km+ daily, commercial license
• DiDi: L4 trucks for logistics
• XPeng HT: Flying car demos

Why It Works:

1. 89% foreign workers = zero labor resistance
2. Crown Prince chairs autonomous committee = regulatory speed
3. 200 vehicles = breakeven (vs 1,000+ China)

NIO CONNECTION:

• Crown Prince's L'imad fund owns 17.9% NIO stake
• Abu Dhabi building smart mobility hub, Chinese companies core
• NIO battery swap + MENA JV already operating
• Strategy: Abu Dhabi as gateway to 400M+ MENA region

Not Just Investment - Geopolitical Partnership:WeRide/Baidu proving commercial models work. NIO positioned as premium EV centerpiece of ecosystem. Expansion potential across Gulf states with nation-state backing.

Reality: NIO benefits from ecosystem but not leading robotaxi operations. Battery swap + premium vehicles = different play. Must still execute on car sales.

BOTTOM LINE:ES8 = execution proof. Abu Dhabi = strategic optionality. But neither saves company if can't hit 600-700K profitably.

Watch Jan deliveries (Feb 1). ES8 holding 20K+ despite seasonal dip = bullish. Significant drop = December was push.

Tools exist. Path visible. Now execute on cars.

COURTSIDE FINANCIAL - Hosted by Obi

Tesla kills Model S/X for robots. Li Auto pivots to robots while car sales drop 20%. What NIO investors MUST understand about this pattern.

TESLA'S ICON GRAVEYARD:Model S/X production ends Q2 2026. Need factory space for Optimus robots.

Reality Check:

• 2025 S/X/Cybertruck sales: 50,850 (down 40.2%)
• No redesign in 10+ years, missing 800V, fast charging
• Tesla revenue down 3%, profit down 46%
• Lost best-selling EV title to BYD
• Deliveries down 8.5% to 1.6M despite refreshes

Musk: "We have no choice" = admitting car business struggling.

Pivot: Betting on FSD, Robotaxi, Optimus. But WAY behind Waymo, Baidu, Pony.ai in actual deployment.

LI AUTO'S DESPERATE PIVOT:Jan 26 leaked meeting: Li Xiang going all-in on humanoid robots.

Car Problem:

• 2025: 406K deliveries (down 19% from 500K)
• L-series crushed, pure EV failing
• Stores hiding L-series in basements

Response: Restructure around AI + robots, recruit back employees who LEFT for robot startups.

Pattern = When car sales stall, pivot to new story.

THE NIO ANGLE (CRITICAL):

NIO playing smarter:

1. Battery swap/phones/services SUPPORT cars, don't replace
2. Abu Dhabi sovereign backing = patient capital
3. 2,000+ swap stations = real moat

BUT challenge remains:

• 326K deliveries 2025 = not enough
• Need 600-700K for cost structure
• If can't grow car sales, swap tech won't save them

WHO'S WINNING:

• Leapmotor: 600K, cost focus
• BYD: 4M+, no robot talk
• Xiaomi: 550K+, one car done well

Winners execute. Strugglers pivot.

INVESTOR TAKEAWAY:Tesla killing icons = even OG admits cars aren't enough.

For NIO: Focus on cars. 600-700K target. Use patient capital to outlast robot-chasing competitors.

Watch car numbers. Everything else is noise.

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NIO ships to 460K vehicles, Li Auto goes all-in on robots, memory crisis hits everyone. This is execution vs vision vs reality.

NIO NWM UPDATE (460K+ VEHICLES):

• Major "human-like" driving update using closed-loop reinforcement learning
• Learns from REAL human driving, not just experts
• Battery swap navigation: industry-first piloted driving to 2,000+ stations
• Shenji in-house chips (no NVIDIA delays)
• EXECUTION AT SCALE despite sales struggles

LI AUTO ROBOT PIVOT (LEAKED INTERNAL MEETING):Jan 26 all-hands: Li Xiang announces humanoid robot push

Key Points:

• 2026 = last year to become top AI company
• Only 3 global companies will master foundation models + chips + OS + embodied intelligence
• Li Auto will be one
• Restructuring: cars + robots = "hardware ontology team"
• Aggressive hiring: "bring back employees who left for robot startups"
• Multiple robot R&D roles posted

Context: Sales 500K (2024) → 400K (2025), -20%. Pure EV struggling. Is this genius or desperation?

MEMORY CHIP CRISIS (AFFECTS ALL):DDR4/DDR5 prices +40-70%, adding 1,000-2,000 yuan per vehicle

Stats:

• Li Auto: <50% fulfillment rate possible 2026
• Lei Jun: 70% Q1 increase projected
• 200K yuan EV: +800 yuan memory cost
• Automotive = <10% global DRAM (AI gets priority)

Why: AI eating HBM supply, DDR4→DDR5 transition, car memory needs +40% (ADAS)

Will prices rise? NO (short term). Competition too fierce. Companies absorbing... for now.

THE CONNECTIONS:

• NIO: Executing but bleeding costs (memory + swap + international)
• Li Auto: Pivoting because core struggling
• Memory: Great equalizer, 500K+ scale = survival edge

Not hype phase. GRIND phase. Who actually survives?

COURTSIDE FINANCIAL - Hosted by Obi

The magic survival number for Chinese EVs + why NIO/XPeng/Li Auto are dumping NVIDIA. Two stories, one theme: Chinese EVs leveling up.

THE 500K SAFETY LINE:Not 2M. Not 1M. At 500K annual units, Chinese EV makers gain:

• Financial viability (100-150B yuan revenue = profitability)
• Strategic breathing room (absorb 20% drops like Li Auto)
• Operational efficiency (economies of scale kick in)
• Community critical mass (self-sustaining ecosystems)
• Supply chain power (justify vertical integration)

WHO'S WHERE:

• Li Auto: 400K (safe, crossed line 2024)
• Leapmotor: 600K (just crossed, suddenly legitimate)
• XPeng: 430K (+126%), but 41% from budget model—not safe yet
• NIO: 326K, but cost structure SO high needs 600-700K
• HarmonyOS: 590K, Aito 423K, Huawei backing = different game

THE NVIDIA EXODUS:ALL going in-house:

XPeng: G6/G7/G9/P7+ use Turing chip. He Xiaopeng: "Best AI companies develop own chips."

Li Auto: M100 chip = 2 NVIDIA Thor-U (LLM tasks), 3 Thor-U (vision). Delayed products waiting for Thor, learned lesson.

NIO: Spent $300M+ on Orin X in 2024. Shenji NX9031: 2 chips = 8 Orin X, saves 10K yuan per car. Rolling to full lineup.

WHY:

1. Thor disaster: 2,000 TOPS promised, 700 delivered, multiple delays
2. Cost: 10K yuan savings x 500K units = billions
3. Independence: core tech can't be foreign dependency

NVIDIA'S PROBLEM:

• China share: 39% → 25% despite having Orin + Thor
• 1.16M units (NIO+XPeng+Li Auto) moving away
• +HarmonyOS +Leapmotor = 2M+ annual systematically shut out
• Short-term: only 1% revenue
• Long-term: most advanced market building own silicon

THE CONNECTION:Same story. 500K scale enables strategic independence. NVIDIA exodus IS exercising that independence.

At 100K units: must use NVIDIA.At 500K units: $200-300M chip development pays back in 2-3 years.

Autonomous driving = core differentiator. Why outsource it?

Chinese EVs just entered their mature dominance phase. Three stories prove it:

1. NIO'S ABU DHABI UPGRADEL'imad Holding now owns CYVN's 17.9% NIO stake. Board chairman? Sheikh Khaled—Crown Prince of Abu Dhabi, UAE ruler. This isn't investment reshuffling—it's elevation to SOVEREIGN STRATEGIC ASSET. L'imad also owns McLaren. NIO supplying McLaren batteries (4680 cells). Abu Dhabi opened first MENA swap station Feb 2025. Royal family personally overseeing = not risky bet, STRATEGIC INFRASTRUCTURE.
2. THE FEATURE PURGE = MATURITYLi Auto, XPeng, Zeekr CUTTING features. Zeekr killed 1,000km range. Li Auto L6: zero air suspension. XPeng G6: dropped lidar, switched to LFP—sales UP 60% to 65K units. Why? Consumers don't need gimmicks. Core value at right price wins. Survival mode = pile everything. Dominance mode = disciplined optimization.
3. WEST OPENS DOORS (BECAUSE THEY MUST)Germany: €3B EV subsidy through 2029, 800K vehicles, CHINESE BRANDS INCLUDED. German EVs too expensive, sales crashed 27%. They NEED Chinese affordability.

Canada: Tariffs 106% → 6.1% (90% DROP). Quota: 49K Y1 → 70K Y5, 50%+ under $35K. Planning Chinese co-production. Why? Zero domestic EV capacity, but 2026 target 20% NEV penetration. Plus Trump threatening their exports.

KEY STATS:

• China 2025 exports: 7.1M vehicles (+21%), $142.4B
• XPeng G6: +60% YoY AFTER cutting features
• German Chinese brands: BYD +700%, Leapmotor +3,990%
• NIO: 17.9% owned by Crown Prince fund

WHO WINS:Canada: Tesla short-term (80%), BYD/Chery/Leapmotor long-termGermany: MG, BYD, Leapmotor accelerate with subsidies

THE THESIS:Scrappy startup phase OVER. Mature global power phase BEGUN. Feature wars done. Price wars maturing to value wars. Markets opening by necessity not choice.

For NIO: Sovereign Crown Prince oversight = ultimate validation.

2026 is efficient dominance year.

COURTSIDE FINANCIAL - Hosted by Obi