Four stories today — starting with the most important

week in NIO's 2026 delivery story so far.

NIO delivered 37,705 vehicles in May 2026 — up 62.3%

year over year and up 28.4% from April's 29,356.

Three brands all firing: 20,013 NIO brand, 12,029 Onvo,

5,663 Firefly. Year-to-date deliveries hit 150,526 —

up 68.7% year over year. Cumulative deliveries reached

1,148,118. The ES8 has been the number one selling

vehicle above 400,000 yuan for five consecutive months.

The ES9 has over 50,000 pre-orders — with deliveries

only starting May 28th. June is when the ES9 volume

really arrives.

William Li is reportedly preparing to take Mirattery —

NIO's battery asset operator — public as his eighth IPO.

Mirattery owns the batteries in NIO's 3,846 swap stations.

It recently closed a Series C total of nearly 2 billion

yuan with state-backed institutional investors. A Mirattery

IPO gives the battery swap infrastructure its own public

valuation — separate from NIO's stock price. NIO

shareholders already own a piece of that business.

The market hasn't priced it in yet.

The May Chinese EV delivery rankings reshuffled.

Leapmotor delivered 81,569 units — record high for the

second consecutive month. Zeekr delivered 34,377 units

up 81.81% year over year. Huawei HIMA delivered 46,122.

Xiaomi exceeded 30,000 for the month. BYD delivered

376,990 — ending its 8-month year-over-year decline

streak. The market is forming a barbell — premium brands

and value brands winning, the middle getting squeezed.

NIO is firmly on the premium side of that barbell.

The Iran 60-day MOU is still waiting for Trump's

signature. Hormuz remains largely closed. Oil at $92.56.

June brings Gen 5 swap stations, Onvo L60 launch, and

ES9 volume ramping. The setup for Q3 is building now.

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Four stories to close out May — starting with the most

underrated bull case in the NIO thesis right now.

NIO's battery swap network delivered 16% of all EV charging

energy in China over a five-day period. Not 16% of NIO

vehicle energy. 16% of ALL electric vehicle charging energy

across the entire Chinese market. From one company's

infrastructure. In five days. The market is pricing NIO

as a car company. The swap network is becoming an energy

infrastructure business — a recurring revenue platform

with a flywheel that gets stronger with every vehicle sold.

Gen 5 swap stations arrive mid to late June, unified

across all three NIO brands for the first time. The number

that is already 16% goes higher.

Software stocks closed May as their best month since 2001.

The SaaSpocalypse — the fear that AI would destroy SaaS —

didn't happen. Dell surged 33%. Snowflake 36.5%.

AI is making software more valuable not less — selecting

for the companies that use AI as a feature rather than

running from it as a threat.

SpaceX trimmed its self-assessed valuation to $1.8 trillion

and is still on track for the largest IPO in world history.

MiniMax — the Chinese AI company recently compared to

DeepSeek — is pursuing a China listing. SoftBank announced

plans to invest up to €75 billion in French AI data centers.

The AI infrastructure arms race is now a global story.

The US and Iran are "mostly agreed" on a 60-day memorandum

of understanding — ceasefire extended, Hormuz reopens,

nuclear talks begin. The deal still needs Trump's signature.

Oil closed May at $92.56 — down nearly 19% for the month —

worst monthly performance since COVID. Watch Monday morning.

If the deal gets signed the market opens at a new record

and everything that's been held back by the macro overhang

since February starts to move.

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Four stories today — all connected to the future of

the Chinese EV market and your portfolio.

BYD unveiled the Xuanji A3 — China's first mass-produced

automotive-grade 4nm smart driving chip. 2,100 TOPS of

computing power in a three-chip configuration. Built for

L3 and L4 autonomous driving. Already in mass production.

But the real story is the 24-year infrastructure behind it.

BYD set up its chip division in 2002 — before the iPhone.

7,000 chip engineers. 5 wafer fabrication facilities.

Over 2,000 chip products across 13 categories. Chips

supplying 46 other automotive brands. BYD is the only

automaker on earth with full-process chip manufacturing

capability — from architecture design through wafer

manufacturing to testing. Wang Chuanfu said it directly:

"The second half of intelligentization is all about chips."

Xpeng reported Q1 with revenue down 17.6% year over year

while R&D jumped nearly 50% in the opposite direction.

That scissors gap swallowed every positive effect from

improved margins. Xpeng has 42 billion yuan in cash burning

at over 5 billion per quarter — chasing Robotaxi, humanoid

robots, a flying car, and the Turing chip licensing business.

He Xiaopeng is betting that 2026-2028 are the three most

critical years for physical AI and that bleeding now means

dominating later. High risk. High ceiling.

A suspected mine was reported in the Strait of Hormuz

by Omani authorities this morning. A ceasefire framework

sits waiting for final signatures — 60-day extension,

Hormuz reopens, nuclear talks begin. Oil is down 20%

from 2026 highs — worst monthly performance since COVID.

Watch Treasury yields Sunday night. Watch oil Monday morning.

Those two numbers tell you what the market believes.

Audi started pre-sales for the China-specific E7X — and

dropped the four-ring logo entirely, replacing it with

just the letters AUDI. Co-developed with SAIC. Starting

at 289,800 yuan. When a brand that competed directly with

NIO's target customer strips its most recognizable identity

to survive in China — that's the most bullish NIO data

point of the week.

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Dell Technologies just had its best single session in company

history — up 33% after beating earnings and raising full-year

guidance. AI server demand is flooding Dell's infrastructure

division. Snowflake surged 36.5%. Best Buy up 15.8%.

And today I want to have the honest conversation this channel

has needed to have.

I am a news guy first. I found the NIO story because it was

one of the most compelling business stories of the decade —

a Chinese EV company surviving bankruptcy, rebuilding from

nothing, competing against the world's most advanced automakers

— and almost nobody in the English-speaking world was telling

it properly. I opened that window. That's still what this

channel is.

But I own Dell. And today was a very good day.

The NIO vs Dell comparison isn't a competition — it's a

portfolio conversation. A concentrated bet on NIO misses

the AI infrastructure wave. A concentrated bet on Dell

misses the Chinese EV expansion story. The mistake this

community sometimes makes is treating NIO as an identity

rather than an investment.

You're not a NIO person. You're an investor who has NIO

in your portfolio. Those are different things.

Bloomberg confirmed a tentative US-Iran deal is being

discussed. S&P 500 closed at 7,580 — a new all time record.

The Dow crossed 51,000 for the first time in history.

Oil slipped on the deal optimism. If this holds — every

macro headwind that's been weighing on growth stocks since

February starts to reverse. Rate cut expectations return.

And the stocks held back by the overhang — including NIO —

get re-rated upward.

NIO launched its fifth Q2 product today — Onvo L60 pre-sales

kicked off at the Shenzhen Auto Show. Official launch June 11.

I'm a news guy. I document stories. The Chinese EV story

is one of the most important business stories of the decade.

But I own Dell too.

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E-Book pre-order available now. Hard copy June 12th.

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Welcome back. A lot happened. Let's get into it.

NIO ES9 deliveries kicked off yesterday — one day early.

NIO hired NBA legend Yao Ming as Chief Experience Officer.

The stock surged 9.3% in the US and 10.45% in Hong Kong.

The higher-priced Executive Signature Edition and Horizon

Special Edition trims are selling far above management

expectations — a margin story that flows directly into

Q2 revenue per unit.

NIO Q1 2026: Revenue $3.7 billion — up 123% year over year.

Deliveries 83,465 — up 98.3%. Vehicle margin 18.8% — fourth

consecutive quarterly improvement. Net loss narrowed to 332

million yuan from 6.75 billion yuan a year ago. Q2 guidance:

110,000-115,000 deliveries. Bank of America doubled its stake.

Morgan Stanley and Bernstein both upgraded.

Xpeng Q1 2026: Revenue $1.89 billion — down 17.6% year over

year. Deliveries 62,682 — down 33.3%. Gross margin 20.6%.

Same market. Same quarter. Two completely different stories

about brand positioning and where each company sits in the

Chinese EV landscape.

Ferrari unveiled the Luce on May 25th — their first fully

electric production car, designed with Jony Ive, priced at

$645,000. Italy's deputy prime minister said it doesn't look

like a Ferrari. The Chinese internet compared it to a Nissan

Leaf. Ferrari's stock dropped 8% on launch day. China's

luxury EV market — NIO ET9 at 818K yuan, Maextro S800 at

1 million yuan — doesn't need Ferrari's validation. It's

already here and already won.

PCE inflation hit 3.8% for April — highest in nearly three

years. And Wall Street is quietly profiting from the same

war it publicly says it wants to end. The financial incentives

keeping Hormuz closed are enormous. Follow the money.

📖 Dial Tone: A Modern Salesman's Story — my debut novel.

A novel for everyone quietly wondering if there's more.

E-Book pre-order available now. Hard copy June 12th.

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Four stories today — all connected to what matters

for your portfolio right now.

Tomorrow the Onvo L80 officially launches. NIO's direct

answer to Tesla's Model Y — priced below it, with battery

swap included, and Morgan Stanley projecting Onvo reaches

30% of NIO group deliveries in Q2 up from 16% in Q1.

William Li confirmed deposit flow was already exceeding

internal forecasts before the official launch.

ES9 deliveries start May 27th. The L60 facelift has

pre-sales coming late May with an official launch in June.

That's four major NIO and Onvo product launches in a

single quarter — the most aggressive product calendar

in company history.

Today NIO pushed the Aster 1.5.0 OTA update to all

existing Firefly owners — a free motor power boost from

105kW to 120kW, no hardware changes required. The update

also prepares Firefly vehicles for NIO's fifth-generation

battery swap stations — the infrastructure that unifies

all three NIO brands on one network for the first time.

NIO operates 3,846 swap stations and has delivered over

110 million swaps since 2018. William Li guides to

4,500-4,600 stations by year end. Gen 5 changes the

unit economics of the entire swap business.

Trump and Xi Jinping agreed today that the Strait of

Hormuz must remain open. That's a joint US-China position

— not just American pressure on Iran. China absorbs

1.5 million barrels of Iranian oil daily. When Beijing

publicly aligns with Washington on Hormuz staying open,

Iran's negotiating position weakens significantly.

China also ordered 200 Boeing jets. Jensen Huang met

Chinese Premier Li Qiang directly in Beijing.

And at midnight tonight Drake drops Iceman — 928 days

since his last solo album, first since the Kendrick Lamar

beef reshaped his public image. The streaming numbers

Saturday morning are a referendum on whether hip-hop

still moves the needle commercially — and whether

Drake's cultural dominance survived the feud.

NIO earnings May 21st. Xpeng May 28th.

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Six stories today — all connected to your portfolio.

The NIO ES8 topped China's large SUV retail rankings

for the fifth consecutive month — including combustion

vehicles. The most premium mainstream NIO product is

the best-selling large SUV in China. That margin mix

is what William Li was signaling when he told his team

revenue growth would outpace delivery growth in Q1.

The Onvo L80 launches tomorrow. Starting at 245,800 yuan

with the battery — 17,700 yuan cheaper than Tesla's

Model Y in China. Under BaaS the entry price drops to

159,800 yuan. 2,840 liters of total cargo space —

largest of any five-seat SUV in China. 900-volt

architecture. LiDAR version with NIO's Shenji chip

or pure vision with Nvidia Orin X. Early order data

is tracking slightly better than the L90 at the same

pre-sales stage. Onvo targets 3,300 swap stations

by year end.

Trump landed in Beijing today with Tim Cook, Elon Musk,

and Jensen Huang — who boarded Air Force One in Alaska

at the last minute after Trump called him personally.

Topics: trade, Taiwan, Iran, and Nvidia chip export

controls. If any movement emerges on chip exports

from this summit it moves the entire semiconductor

sector and NIO's autonomy roadmap simultaneously.

Tesla FSD just crossed 10 billion cumulative miles.

Huawei Qiankun hit 10.47 billion kilometers cumulative

with 910 million kilometers in April alone. A Huawei

executive declared they will surpass Tesla by October.

Tesla is reportedly pushing its full-strength FSD V14

to employee vehicles in China for the first time.

The biggest autonomous driving battle in Chinese

history is underway.

Chinese industry executives are now calling L3 a

marketing grey zone — the liability problem between

L2 and L4 creates confusion that hurts consumers

and exposes manufacturers. NIO's careful marketing

language is a competitive advantage in this environment.

Xpeng reports Q1 earnings May 28th — one week after NIO.

PPI hit 6% year over year. Markets hit all time highs.

Cerebras priced its AI chip IPO at $185/share.

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Four stories today — all connected to your NIO position.

NIO reports Q1 2026 earnings on May 21st before US markets

open. Three things to watch on the call: whether revenue

growth outpaced delivery growth as management guided,

whether gross margin held above 17.5% from Q4 2025,

and what William Li says about ES9 and L80 demand momentum.

April delivery breakdown: the ES8 delivered 13,020 units —

44% of NIO's entire monthly volume. The 5566 lineup

(ET5, ET5 Touring, ES6, EC6) is under significant pressure

with meaningful year-over-year declines across every model.

In Q1 the ES8 accounted for over 77% of NIO-brand deliveries.

That's a company running on one engine. The ES9 and L80

are engines two and three — both launching in the next 15 days.

Every major automaker now wants chip independence.

Volkswagen announced it's developing its own automotive

System-on-Chip in China for Level 3 autonomous driving.

VW is already using Xpeng's Turing chip in its first

all-electric China SUV — the ID. UNYX 08 — which just

entered production with deliveries starting by end of June.

Reports from the Chinese internet suggest NIO is planning

to sell its Shenji NX9031 chip to other manufacturers

after spinning off the chip business. The Apple silicon

playbook applied to automotive.

April CPI dropped today at 3.8% year over year — the

highest since May 2023. Gasoline up 28.4% annually.

Beef up 14.8%. Airline fares up 20.7%. Real wages fell.

Bank of America now forecasts no Fed rate cuts until

the second half of 2027. Traders are pricing a 30%

chance of an actual rate hike by year end.

The macro headwind is real. It's Iran-driven.

It resolves when Hormuz resolves. Until then —

watch oil, not the Dow.

Also — missed yesterday. Writing a book. More soon.

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Five stories today — NIO leads everything.

ES9 test drives open May 11th — this Sunday.

NIO has initiated a 10,000 kilometer (6,200 mile)

shortest-time driving challenge alongside the opens.

Onvo L80 launches May 15. ES9 deliveries begin May 27

on the same day as the official launch — nearly

unheard of in the Chinese EV industry.

A leaked image circulating on Chinese social media

suggests NIO is developing a companion smartphone

that extends across all three of its brands — NIO,

Onvo, and Firefly. A NIO phone would integrate

natively with the swap network, NIO Pilot, vehicle

controls, and the Shenji chip ecosystem. This is the

ecosystem thesis playing out in real time.

April EV sales are in. Leapmotor hit 71,387 units —

a 73.9% year-over-year increase and a new all-time

monthly record. NIO delivered 29,356 units — up

22.8% year-over-year but squeezed out of the 30K

club by Xiaomi. NIO's cumulative deliveries crossed

1.11 million units. The April softness was predicted.

May 15th is when the recovery starts.

Leapmotor's record comes with a problem. Its new

D-series flagship is priced at 250,000-300,000 yuan —

moving directly into NIO's territory. The brand that

built its identity on affordability is now trying to

sell premium products to buyers who expect premium

brand experience. NIO spent eleven years building that.

Leapmotor is trying to do it with a product launch.

Markets hit all-time highs today — S&P 500 at 7,398,

Nasdaq at 26,247, six straight winning weeks. Micron

surged 13.7%, Oracle 13.56%, SanDisk 14.27% in one

session. Apple signed a chip-making deal with Intel.

And Michael Burry compared the AI trade to the final

months of the 1999-2000 dot-com bubble.

Watch the semis. Watch the AI infrastructure names.

The momentum is real. So is the caution sign.

---

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Three stories on the last day of April — all connected

to your portfolio.

Trump started a war with Iran in February. Oil hit $104.

The Strait of Hormuz closed. And Chinese EV exports hit a

record high in March — up 140% year over year according to

the China Passenger Car Association. Solar, batteries, and

EVs combined rose 70% in total export value. China's battery

exports alone hit $10 billion in a single month.

Diesel is up over 100% in parts of Southeast Asia. Countries

that depended on Middle Eastern oil don't need government

incentives to switch to EVs anymore — their fuel bill is

the incentive. Trump started a war that accidentally

accelerated the global case for Chinese clean energy.

NIO's battery asset operator Mirattery issued its second

green ABN of 2026 — another 1 billion yuan, bringing

cumulative issuance to 4 billion yuan total. The senior

tranche carries a coupon rate of just 2.00% — below China's

3.00% benchmark lending rate. The issuance was oversubscribed.

Rates are trending down. The swap network is now raising

institutional capital at premium terms. That's infrastructure,

not just a product feature.

Big Tech reported last night. Microsoft beat. Amazon beat.

Alphabet beat and rose 10%. Meta beat and fell 5% on flat

Q2 revenue guidance. Combined AI capital expenditure across

the four companies has hit $725 billion for 2026. The market

is no longer rewarding beats — it's demanding proof that

the spending is generating returns right now. Alphabet showed

it. Meta didn't. The scoreboard reflects that.

May is NIO's biggest month in company history.

ES9 official launch. Onvo L80. Beijing Auto Show public days.

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