Covid Watch

A call for those in Auckland's retirement villages to be able to reconnect with their loved ones. 
Most older people living alone can join another bubble during alert level three, but Aucklanders in rest homes can't. 
Oceania Healthcare chief executive, Brent Pattison, told Mike Hosking family members can only visit under compassionate grounds. 
He says more than 90 percent of staff and residents at the chain are vaccinated. 
"It doesn't seem fair or compassionate that they can't see their loved ones, there's got to be some kind of payback for the investment they're making." 
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A warning from Chris Hipkins that Covid-19 case numbers could escalate in Auckland, and pop up in other parts of the country. 
Cabinet will meet today to decide whether to end the lockdown in Northland and Waikato tomorrow night. 
An Auckland truck driver has tested positive after visiting Northland on Saturday, but both regions still have a good chance to moving out of Level Three. 
The Covid Response Minister told Mike Hosking the situation remains serious in Auckland, where there are many unlinked cases in different parts of the city. 
"Covid-19's made its way into a part of our community that's very hard to reach and therefore the potential for case numbers to increase is quite a significant one." 
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According to modelling carried out by the Counties Manukau District Health Board, if border restrictions are loosened for arrivals from countries with high Covid numbers, South Auckland will see between 1000 and 1400 cases a week – even if vaccination rates get to 90 per cent.
Under the modelling prepared for the DHB, if strong border controls and public health measures remained in place and the vaccination rate reached 90 per cent, the Counties Manukau region would see only 40 cases and one hospitalisation per week. This number jumps to 200 cases per week if vaccination rates reach only 80 per cent.
The scenario gets much more grim for South Aucklanders if border and public health restrictions are lifted. The DHB's modelling shows there will be at least 1000 cases and 30 hospitalisations per week with a 90 per cent vaccination rate, or 1400 cases and 45 hospitalisations if vaccination rates reach only 80 per cent.
Given rates remain well below 80 per cent in much of South Auckland, Dr Collin Tukuitonga, associate professor of public health at the University of Auckland, says the modelling is too conservative.
"I think the vaccination rates are too ambitious and I think we will probably get more cases than 1000 a week.
"And as a result it will have a greater impact on Māori and Pacific people. This could get totally out of control – in terms of what we've experienced in New Zealand up to now."
Tukuitonga says the pressure on Middlemore Hospital is already immense given "Māori and Pacific are most affected by the inequities in our society".
"If the Government loosens public health measures, there will be more cases, and that's the risk people need to be aware of.
"The problem for Middlemore is that they are already stretched to their full capacity, even without Covid, as they are underpowered to serve the population size that exists within Counties Manukau."
Middlemore 'the epicentre' of outbreak
At the opening of a mobile vaccination bus in September, Counties Manukau Health chief executive Margie Apa said the hospital had already been working hard to increase its capacity for Covid patients.
"We have done quite a lot of preparatory work to increase our ICU [intensive care unit] and high-dependency units," she said.
"But what that does do is take bed stock out of being able to look after the rest of our non-Covid patients."
According to a DHB spokesperson, the hospital has 18 intensive care unit beds, seven high dependency unit beds and a special respiratory ward for Covid patients.
It is also planning how to increase "hospital capacity to care for all patients in a safe way".
"Middlemore Hospital has been the epicentre of the Covid-19 Delta outbreak, with more than 1000 cases since the pandemic began in the Counties Manukau region.
"The team's experience is now being applied to how services and patient care will be provided in the future."
South Aucklanders 'let down'
A medical specialist familiar with Middlemore Hospital and its intensive care unit says given what the modelling shows and the hospital's capacity, the implications for South Aucklanders with pre-existing conditions are "very serious".
"When a person goes into intensive care with Covid, they can spend up to 16 hours a day lying on their stomachs and are spending between four to six weeks in there. If every week you get just a tenth of hospitalisations going into ICU, you're still going to get pretty overwhelmed pretty quickly."
He says an increase in Covid-related deaths is "a reasonable assumption to make, and there will also be a lot of people just suffering, as they are unable to get the relief they were hoping to get from other interventions that had been planned but will be delayed".
Opening the vaccination rollout to all Māori and Pacific people from the start, and having it led by South Auckland providers, was the only way for the current scenario...

Concerns midwife numbers will drop due to vaccine mandates.
The Government's announced all high-risk health workers including midwives must be fully vaccinated against Covid-19 by December 1st.
College of Midwives CEO Alison Eddy told Heather du Plessis-Allan there's already a staffing struggle.
“We anticipate it will be a very, very small number. But we just have got such a tight workforce, we can't afford to lose any.”
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New Zealand's singing, dancing and laughing its way toward raising vaccination rates.
A special "vaxathon" will be splashed across Kiwis TV screens from midday to eight-pm to celebrate "Super Saturday".
The national day of action is planned as a last push to get jabs into arms, with a goal to vaccinate 100,000 people.
The vaxathon — which will be fronted by celebrities and health experts — will capture the action at vaccine sites nationwide.
One of the hosts, Patrick Gower, has laughed off Heather du Plessis-Allan's concerns it will be a disaster and a bit lame.
“You are going to be proven totally, totally wrong by that because I haven't been involved in anything lame ever. And I think it’ll be the exact opposite. I think it’ll be a magical moment in New Zealand history.”
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Professional golfer Michael Hendry rang Simon Barnett and James Daniels to offer some of his suggestions for MIQ after Sir Ian Taylor's plan for MIQ was approved by the Government.
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Good morning — and a special good morning to the South Island.  I see you. I know you're there.  
Even if other people seem to have forgotten about you — I know it's important for those regions in stricter lockdowns to hear the news regarding their alert levels first but surely a — and that means the South Island must stay in Level 2 for the meantime — wouldn't have hurt.  
Anyway, the news was pretty much what I expected to hear when I listened to ZB at 5.  
Although I heard the collective groans of parents when the announcement was made that school-aged children would not be returning to school on the 18th.  
Parents who've been hanging on, glancing up at the calendar on the wall when things get tough and counting down the days to the 18th, circled in red, must have despaired when they heard the kids would be staying home for the foreseeable.  
And the children themselves — many of them must be yearning to get back to some sort of structure and routine, to be with their mates.  
And that's just the kids who are safe and well, who are loved and have a warm home and food on the table.  
What about those poor little tykes living in less than ideal homes?  
Whose best meal of the day came with the school lunch provided for them?  
There are about 158,000 children living in hardship in this country.  
There'll be plenty more living in misery and I wonder how they are being protected and cared for — Oranga Tamariki is still working but that's only for the most extreme cases. 
So how is the welfare of children living in poverty being monitored?  I hope they're not forgotten.  
And businesses — Michael Barnett says there should be a wider vaccine mandate to support businesses who are otherwise being left to police this on their own.  
Heart of the City's Viv Beck says there needs to be a deadline for mandatory vaccine passports, to create urgency and focus.  
Even epidemiologist Rod Jackson has said that businesses should have been given the mandate yesterday to introduce compulsory vaccinations for staff without fear of being prosecuted.  
Job ads in Wellington increased by four per cent month on month and Canterbury by nine per cent — in Auckland, they dropped eight per cent. As Liam Dann wrote in the Herald the ongoing lockdown isn’t sending NZ's economy off a cliff — but that doesn't mean long term damage isn't being done.  
There were signs of hope that the government is finally listening to different sectors — the mandating of vaccinations in the education and health sector, permission for Sir Ian Taylor to trial his private MIQ system for international travel.  
Common sense coming through. Let's hope we see more of that.

Most teachers are expected to be on board with mandatory vaccinations.
School staff who have contact with pupils will have to be fully vaccinated by January 1 and schools will have to keep track of which students are vaccinated.
However, there are concerns over what prolonging the return of students to school will do to their learning and also their mental welfare.
May Road School is a primary school in Auckland's Mt Roskill and principal Lynda Stuart joined Kerre McIvor.
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John MacDonald today on the show asked why the South Island didn't even get a mention in the press conference with the Prime Minister, and he placed that blame solely on local MPs not going in to bat for the south.
He called on local MPs to make a stand, and fight for the South Island to figure in the conversation and be thanked and protected. 
Nicola Grigg, who is National's Selwyn MP, called in and told listeners that she and other MPs had written to the Prime Minister two weeks about about the South Island and Covid levels, and had yet to get a response.
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A delighted Sir Ian Taylor has been given approval by the Government to trial a private self-isolation system for international travel, designed to free up spaces in MIQ for returning Kiwis.
The Animation Research founder received approval yesterday from the Ministry of Business, Innovation and Employment (MBIE) to run a privately funded trial that Taylor is calling #151 Off The Bench.
He wants to prove he can fly from Dunedin to Auckland, on to Los Angeles and San Francisco, and return to New Zealand safely using the latest technologies available and without taking up a space in a hopelessly overloaded MIQ system.
The approval is a victory for Taylor who has outlined his plans in a series of articles published in the Herald, saying his staff need to travel, like other business people, but they do not need to take up MIQ spaces and deprive other Kiwis from returning home.
travellers privately will free up much-needed spaces in MIQ hotels. Photo / Michael Craig
Last month when the Government announced 150 places for business people who wanted to run a private, self-isolation system, Taylor said he didn't want to take up one of those spots either. Instead he lobbied the Government to allow him to trial his own system, #151 Off The Bench, which he is convinced will be Covid-19 proof.
"We're not asking anything of MIQ. What we want to do is create a system that runs parallel. That means those people who don't have the kind of resources we have can get those bids and get home. I would feel terrible to take an MIQ slot, I wouldn't take one."
His will be a quick visit to the US in November, just time for a meeting about golf with Fox Sport in LA and another with Major League Baseball in San Francisco. Taylor has a lot at stake, knowing that his trial will be very public and open to scrutiny.
"This is about doing a full-view test showing how businesses can operate in order to keep the economy running."
If he can prove it works, he sees no reason why the "road map for the future" could not be expanded outside of business to include sports and cultural teams, Government officials, film crews who are currently taking up MIQ spaces.
At aged 71, Taylor is well aware he's in the high-risk category if he caught Covid-19 despite his double vaccination.
"I'm well and truly in the danger zone, but this is how confident I am. Yes, I'm susceptible but that's why my mask is not coming off. That's why I've got the best mask you can buy, "he said.
"I will have tools and tests with me so I can test every day just to make sure I haven't picked it (Covid-19) up. I will not be going anywhere near a restaurant, or a cafe or a pub. I'm there for a meeting, and most importantly, I'm there to make sure I don't get Covid because otherwise I'm not coming home. I don't get on the plane until I prove I am negative."
Once back in Auckland Taylor will then self-isolate in an hotel and will continue testing.
Taylor paid tribute to how quickly the Government had accelerated his proposal, particularly Minister of Economic development, Stuart Nash, Associate Finance Minister David Parker and Carolyn Tremain, chief executive of MBIE.
"They have been really tremendous. When they saw my plan they were really interested in my idea and the technologies I was finding, especially the New Zealand-based one."
Now Taylor will work with MBIE to merge his #151 plans with the 150 private business spots.
"The primary objective was to say "we're here to talk. Can we help?'
Taylor hopes a private MIQ system will help open up the economy and give businesses needing to send staff overseas some surety. And he is confident #151 will work. His "road map" includes technology including a geo-fence watch that will act like a virtual fence around Taylor's room when he is self-isolating in Auckland on his return.
"That watch when I put it on my wrist, I can't take it off. The minute I take it...