Covid Watch

Only time will tell, whether the country is overcoming its Delta outbreak. 
Daily case numbers have remained stable at about 20 cases each day for the past few day 
The latest virus modelling shows the reproductive value is highly likely to be under one - meaning cases will decrease.  
But Covid analyst Rodney Jones told Mike Hosking we aren't out of the woods yet. 
"Right at the start I said it would be a slog, we've kind of been slogging through the mud and getting there but it's slow going so, more optimistic, but we're not there yet." 
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The Associate Health Minister says Auckland could see zero daily Covid-19 community cases in a couple of weeks.
We have 21 new cases today bringing the outbreak tally to 841.
Ayesha [eye sha] Verrall says she doesn't have a crystal ball, but things are tracking in a positive direction.
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Part of the Government's current problem around Level 4 in Auckland is testing, or lack of it. 
Even if you have a runny nose, go get tested is the current plea from everyone from Jacinda Ardern, Grant Robertson, Chris Hipkins, and Dr Ashley Bloomfield. 
Such is our obsession with knowing everything, even if it isn't there, we want you to test, test, test. Could testing be down because essentially the outbreak is roughly contained?  
Could testing be down because there is actually nothing to test? 
And could it be the lack of testing is not actually a concern, but a good thing given, one of the known out-workings of lockdowns is transmissible diseases tend not to be as transmissible. 
Did we not learn this recently as increasing numbers of RSV patients ended up in hospital? Because resistance to certain diseases had fallen due to the lack of exposure and build-up of resistance? 
As far as their testing obsession goes, could it be you can't find what isn't there? 
Secondly, would it be about 1000 times easier if they had rolled out quick-fire, rapid tests, saliva tests, and self-testing? In a similar way in most countries that have their act together have? 
The entire apparatus we operate in this country is built around two key faults. The state needs to run it all. And the state that wants to run it all isn't actually that good at running anything. 
Testing has taken an age because they didn’t hire contact tracers in the numbers required.  
So they run a singular form of testing, a massive swab stuck up the nose that is invasive, slow, and cumbersome. 
There are alternatives. Saliva testing, they will tell you, when asked, is being rolled out.  
But where is it being rolled out? Everywhere? Not even close. It's happening slowly and minutely at the border, despite the various reports that told them to get on with it at least a year ago. 
Imagine the information they could have had this outbreak, and the reassurance they could have had, if they had swab testing, saliva testing, and self-testing with follow ups. Would they still be asking for more testing if they had a less overarching approach to it?
For the bigger picture, when the next outbreak arrives, will they have learned the lesson and improved the way they do things?

Stoked for everyone, bar Auckland, who gets to wake up tomorrow morning in Level 2. 
A few changes, but hey, at least you’re in level 2. Or ‘Delta 2’ as they’re calling it. Always a catchphrase. 
The new rules include recommending mask use in schools, especially in secondary school settings, not compulsory, but recommended. So how does this transpire? Leaving it up to schools, who’s monitoring or enforcing that? Parents? Schools? 
I’m sure we'll soon find out after schools go back Thursday. 
The other potential prickly one is surveillance testing of any essential workers crossing the Auckland border. 
How this takes shape I’m not exactly sure, we know it’ll be free, and you don’t have to isolate while you’re waiting on results unless you have symptoms. But how much does it inconvenience companies and how much hold up will there be at the border? 
Again, time will tell. 
The PM acknowledged these changes would be tough, which is about as useful as her expressing her frustration on things. It doesn’t change anything for the people and businesses involved. 
Despite coming in late and taking a good fifteen minutes to get to the actual level adjustment announcement at the post-cab presser yesterday, the glaring omission for me was no vaccine supply announcement. Another day has ticked by, and still no deal. Robertson said yesterday they were ‘working on it’.. what I’d like to know is - whose working on it? Has anyone at the top level of government actually picked up a phone?  
Who is negotiating this deal? Why is it taking so long? Why do they keep saying an announcement is imminent any day now, when the days just keep ticking into weeks and no announcement gets made? 
To make matters worse, we’re being shown up across the Tasman.  
ScoMo now has double the doses this month for his rollout, simply by hustling for it, and making deals with three countries. While he’s sewn up deals with Poland, Singapore and the UK, what have we been doing? Robertson claims ‘these things take time’, but awkwardly for him, that doesn’t appear true; ScoMo wrapped up the UK deal in just over two weeks.  
How he did it wasn’t rocket science either. 
He got the departments of Foreign Affairs and Trade to scour the world for jabs, High Commissioners making phone calls to counterparts, then ScoMo got involved at the top level; making phone calls to Boris to get the deal moving.  
It's been reported that because the two worked around the clock, the deal ‘assumed a pace and scale that surprised both sides’. 
That’s what happens when you hustle, so why aren’t we? Have we tasked our embassies and MFAT to scour the world for Pfizer? Have we picked up a phone to another country’s leader?  
Or are we just sitting back waiting on yet more advice? 
Since this was broadcast the Government has revealed on Newstalk ZB an announcement on a vaccine deal is due to be announced in the next 24 to 48 hours.

Confidence teachers will be able to navigate the issues around mask wearing at schools. 
It's recommended for over 12s but not required, when school begins for most of the country on Thursday. 
Clinical psychologist Dougal Sutherland told Kate Hawkesby schools should make a clear decision about mask-wearing, with exceptions for children with communication difficulties. 
He says it could be a bit tricky because of peer pressure. 
"I think, though, we should have faith in our teaching staff. Teachers, their job is to engage kids, they know how to engage kids in learning and, yes, this is another barrier, but actually these guys are professionals." 
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Confirmation from Chris Hipkins -- that the Government is about to reach a deal on vaccine supplies. 
The Covid-19 Response Minister has confirmed to Newstalk ZB that a deal is being reached, to allow the Pfizer vaccine roll-out to continue at the current rate. 
He's revealed it will involve multiple countries, providing us with Pfizer doses. 
Hipkins says old Mike Hosking the Government will have more to say, either today or tomorrow. 
"Multiple bits need to be signed by different actors in this process. I can tell you it's within the next 24 to 48 hours, things should be locked down, locked and loaded. People will have some good news." 
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A university researcher says the Government’s move to saliva testing has been far too slow.  
Surveillance testing will begin for essential workers moving between the level four and two boundaries starting tomorrow.  
Initially the tests will be nasal swabs but the Ministry of Health says saliva testing will be rolled out in the coming weeks.   
Yale University researcher Anne Wylie told Mike Hosking New Zealand is ready to start using the tests.  
"You've already got labs in New Zealand that have shown they can do that, so it's looking at what they're doing and what's taking the rest of the Government so much time to figure it out." 
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A Māori leader is outraged after David Seymour tweeted a Māori only vaccine code.  
The code allows people to book in or turn up without an appointment at a drive through clinic in West Auckland. 
The Act Party leader argues getting vaccinated shouldn't be a race-based issue.  
The National Māori Authority Chair Matthew Tukaki told Kate Hawkesby his rhetoric is unhelpful.  
"David has completely lost the plot on this, we are trying very, very hard to get the Māori vaccination rate up, as we are trying to get the vaccination rate up for the country more generally." 
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David Seymour has been copping flack for getting hold of a Maori only vaccine booking code and posting it on social media.  
Speaking to Heather du Plessis-Allan he justified the decision, saying that people are “absolutely sick and tired” of a government that frames every issue “through the lens of ethnicity.” 
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Our Deputy Prime Minister's confident thousands of essential workers will be able to get tested before Alert Level changes on Thursday.
Those who need to move across borders will have to get a negative Covid test within seven days of crossing.
Finance Minister Grant Robertson says some companies are already testing staff as part of their own protocols.
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