Covid Watch

Isn’t it interesting how much lower the bar is for bureaucrats than the private sector? 
Even our sports teams get more scrutiny. Imagine if Ashley Bloomfield was an All Black coach. 
Bear in mind, this guy is our number one, head and shoulders above the next best suitable candidate. 
That’s the worryingly low benchmark we’re setting and accepting across the state service for where performance expectations sit. 
If he was an AB’s coach, he’d be getting dissected, analysed and critiqued by all, including the NZRU. There'd be unsolicited nominations from pundits left, right and centre on who should replace him. 
But obviously the national game is of greater public importance and held to a higher standard than our Covid response. 
Not only is this a major concern for the continued underperformance of our Health Ministry and Covid response and more importantly planning, but it also gives a stark and alarming insight to the calibre of bureaucrats in the Ministry of Health.  
In a global pandemic threatening our safety and our prosperity – this is it. This is what we’ve got. 
If this were the private sector, we'd score KPI’s, canvas high and lowlights, and grade performance. The only conclusion we could draw would result in a small chat with HR in which Bloomfield be invited to bring a support person, followed by a press release about spending more time with his family, and, if he’s lucky, a small pay-out.   
But this isn’t happening with Teflon Bloomfield, NZ’s highest profile bureaucrat. 
His key job in the last 18 months has been to effectively manage and mitigate the risk of Covid.  
He's had the support of the PM, backed up by the Government balance sheet and printing machine, to insure against any further outbreaks, by building in latent capacity across our defence and response network. And although he’s a likeable guy, he’s unfortunately clearly now a recidivist under performer. 
On numerous occasions he's at best withheld or obfuscated material information – and at worst has bare face lied to Cabinet, a Select Committee and the public. On testing, on flu vaccines, on PPE, on the critical vaccine procurement and rollout, on saline injections, on text messages to Foreign Affairs. 
He continues to defend the indefensible. 
He’s failed to act on the recommendations of Ayesha Verrall and Sir Brian Roche, and on the best practise evident globally.  Our response has unquestionably been found wanting.  
We've been caught short – and he’s not fronting that with a mea culpa, or even highlighting areas where things could've been better, nor is he being put under scrutiny or held to account by his employer. 
He has not demonstrated the light-footed dynamism of thought that's required in managing the risks of an ever-evolving pandemic. 
In the private sector he’d be toast, and yet, we have deified him.

Warriors CEO Cameron George joined Mike Hosking to discuss the possibility of the club spending a third season based in Australia.
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Restrictions are likely to remain in place in Auckland for some time to come. 
Air New Zealand Chief Executive Greg Foran told Mike Hosking that will mean far less domestic travel, around the rest of the country. 
"Domestic is about a third of the business, so when I've said to you that half of that doesn't operate, that's a half of a third and that's a real challenge for us." 
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While the South Island might feel some relief today if they head into Level Three, for teachers, Level Three can be bit of a headache.  
Level Three is where schools are open for kids of essential workers, so enough teachers to cover that go into work.   
That means some teachers are stretched between the kids at school and the kids at home learning online.  
Perry Rush from the Principal's Federation says Level Three presents more challenges. 
“Level Four is definitely an easier level to manage, in terms of your whole staff being in the remote and being able to support all students who are in the remote.” 
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Some parts of the country could be about to move from one form of lockdown, to another. 
Cabinet will meet today to discuss whether to move most of the country out of Alert Level Four from midnight tonight. 
 Auckland, the epicentre of the outbreak -- will remain at Level Four until at least Tuesday night. 
Otago University infectious diseases expert David Murdoch told Kate Hawkesby other parts of the country, particularly the South Island, are likely to move to looser restrictions. 
"It's likely to be Alert Level 3. I think the Alert level 3 might be slightly different from before, we're learned a lot about the virus as time has gone on." 
There are now 277 cases in the current outbreak, and there's a growing list of more than 20-thousand contacts and 500 locations of interest. 
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Day 9, yesterday, did not produce the numbers they wanted. Nor did day 7 or 8. 
What will they say if day 10, today, is no better? 
I hope you're looking at New South Wales, Victoria, and the Capital Territory. No two lockdowns are the same, but the latter two are pretty close to ours and theirs aren't working. 
What this week, I think, has proved is we didn’t prepare properly, if at all, from last time. 
We are short of contact tracers, DHBs didn’t know who of their staff were jabbed, we hadn't prepared to jab in level 4 so we stopped it, and we are still arguing over butchers and coffee at service stations. 
And we are using the same thinking to deal with a variant that has changed. The R rate, I was told yesterday is down to 2.5. It was 6 but it's moving in the right direction, but it's still a mile above where it needs to be. 
That is the problem. The locations of interest are through the roof, and some go back weeks. There are not enough contact tracers to round up all that data. The testing is stretched beyond capacity. 
The sort of response and the speed of that response isn't good enough to round up the data they need to get on top of this thing, or to get to the edges, as they say. 
Could they do it? If we all stay in level 4 literally for weeks. Probably. 
But in that calculation is the conundrum. How many weeks can the bulk of the population, if not all the population, given the Christchurch wastewater news, sit in level 4 before the Government cracks? 
The race on vaccine is lost unless they get new supplies and/or change policy and rollout another product. There is no way we can wait until November when everyone has been jabbed. 
We already know at the rate of 80,000 a day we will run out of the supply we've got. 
The Government has had a shocking week, given the world has told us in no uncertain terms, elimination is hopeless and last year's response. The Government in suspending Parliament, being busted in the saline cock up, and having missed their day 7, 8 and 9 target is left scrambling. They're frantically pedalling their message of fear hoping the mass psychosis plan is still worth points in the polls. 
It feels like we are close to an inflection point. This isn't like last time. The Government still push back hoping it is. 
The question is, are they right and on top of it? Or if they're not, how long before they admit it?

Countdown categorically denies hiking prices, for no reason. 
Since the country went into level 4, some shoppers have claimed supermarkets have increased prices.  
But Countdown Corporate Affairs Manager Kiri Hannifin told Mike Hosking that's not true. 
"The only thing that ever goes up and down is produce, and that's all supply. So if there is no kumara, the prices are higher." 
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Cautious optimism from the Government's top Covid adviser over New Zealand's chances of stamping out the current Delta outbreak. 
Auckland will remain at Level Four until at least next Tuesday night due to ongoing cases.  
But Cabinet will meet today to discuss whether to move the rest of the country, or parts of it, out of Alert Level Four from midnight tonight.  
Epidemiologist Sir David Skegg told Mike Hosking he's positive about the situation.  
"Really, it all depends on us. If we observe the lockdown better than people in Melbourne and Sydney have done, of course we will get rid of this within the next few weeks, and I'm expecting that to happen." 
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There are 68 new cases in the community, bringing it to 263 in Auckland, 14 in Wellington, and a total number of 277.  
Increasing numbers of experts are predicting a very long lockdown for Auckland. 
Shaun Hendy says 4 weeks, Dr David Skegg says maybe months, but Emeritus Professor of Medicine Des Gorman thinks the outbreak will peak by the weekend or early next week, then we’ll be able to go down the levels. 
He also called out the Ministry of Health for being unprepared for Delta, saying “getting caught with your pants down early last year was one thing, but this is time and time again.” 
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68 more cases of Covid-19 were announced in the community today, bringing the total outbreak to 277. Professor of Public Health Nick Wilson from the University of Otago says he and other experts still believe elimination strategy is the way to go, at least until we get high vaccination levels. 
However, when asked about places like New South Wales where elimination doesn’t appear to be working, he says they may have to “accept a suppression strategy where they just hope to control the virus to the point where the health system isn't overwhelmed.” 
He also says that “we have the tools” to eradicate Covid-19, but it is “a big ask.” 
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