Critical Point Podcast

The cotton market bulls returned on a sizable drop in planted US acres as reported by USDA yesterday.I think this is a bit of an overreaction relative to economies, virus-recession, and global supplies. But the bulls have the edge so far this week. I show alternate model scripts for the next 60-90 days.The sugar market rallies on dryness in some global production regions, plus locusts in India. Traders monitor currency fluctuation.The coffee market model has worked well. A new L2 uptrend. Rains can further delay harvest in some areas of Brazil. Low temps in some of Brazil raises frost concern. Brazil's currency is watched for clues of export pressure on the global market.The cocoa model is working well. Price is in an expected downtrend on low demand related to the virus recession and large supplies.

Hot temps. End of month and quarter trade. Holiday preparation.Corn price jumps as does the good crop ratings. (?)L3 low is obviously in place. Demand or just short-covering?Next critical point?

End of month and quarter trade. Preparation for the holiday.Heat in the Plains.Still adequate wheat supplies globally.

End of week and end of month trade. Traders prepare for the holiday.The crop rating improved. Near-term hot weather excites, but I find no evidence of a developing crop problem. L3 trend low likely in place. Next critical point?Recently open interest declined alongside price suggesting liquidation. Short-covering may be occurring now.

End of the month, end of the quarter, and preparation for the holiday.The stock market is due for an L3 upturn within L1/L2 downtrends.L4 intraweek swing is due to peak today.US virus cases surge. The US is looking poor for the management of the virus. Has not yet concerned investors.Some say as much as 50% of the working population is unemployed. And yet the stock market rests.

A point of view of the next 20 years of the economy and the stock market after analysis of 200 years of stock index history.What are the risks? The reward?A roadmap for the next 20 years.The behavior of generations of people working and investing.