CropGPT - Cocoa

This episode provides a detailed weekly summary of the global cocoa market as of August 17, 2025.

• Ivory Coast, the world's largest cocoa producer, is currently facing unfavorable weather conditions characterized by below-average rainfall and high temperatures. These conditions are jeopardizing pod development ahead of the October main crop harvest. Despite this, the country has seen a 6.6% year-over-year increase in cocoa exports, totaling 1,780,000 metric tons between October and August 10. However, this growth reflects a decrease from a December export surge, and concerns remain about crop quality, with 5% to 6% of the mid-crop yield classified as poor due to delayed rains. The mid-crop yield is estimated at 400,000 metric tons, marking a 9% decline from the previous year.
• In contrast, Ghana forecasts an 8.3% increase in cocoa production for the 2025–2026 period, reaching 650,000 metric tons. The growth is supported by government initiatives such as fertilizer subsidies and pest control programs. Meanwhile, Nigeria expects an 11% decline in cocoa output, down to 305,000 metric tons, due to adverse weather and aging plantations. Nevertheless, demand for Nigerian cocoa is rising, particularly through new trade ties with Belgium, reflecting the country's shift towards agricultural exports.
• Globally, the cocoa market is in flux, with production variances and shifting demand patterns. Cocoa grinding has declined in Europe (7.2%), Asia (16.3%), and North America (2.8%), highlighting demand fluctuations. Despite this, the International Cocoa Organization has reported a record global deficit of 494,000 metric tons for the 2023–2024 season, followed by a forecasted surplus of 142,000 metric tons for 2024–2025, influencing market prices.
• The episode also discusses technological innovations, such as MARS Inc.'s collaboration with Pairwise on CRISPR gene editing. These efforts aim to enhance cocoa crop resilience and productivity in response to challenges like climate change and disease, aligning with broader strategies for agricultural advancement and economic diversification across West Africa.

This episode provides a detailed overview of the global cocoa market for the week of August 10, 2025.

• The Ivory Coast, the largest global cocoa producer, is facing a significant slowdown in production growth, with exports up only 6 percent this year to 1.76 million metric tons, compared to a 35 percent increase last year. Adverse weather conditions, including reduced rainfall and higher temperatures, are impacting both yield and quality ahead of the main crop harvest in October. Mid-crop yields have been revised downward to 400,000 metric tons from an earlier 440,000 metric ton forecast, due to quality rejections affecting up to 6 percent of the crop. Political considerations are also at play, with speculation that the government may raise cocoa prices before upcoming elections to secure farmer support.
• Ghana, the second-largest producer, expects an 8.3 percent production increase for the 2025–26 season, potentially reaching 650,000 metric tons. This could exert downward pressure on global prices. In contrast, Nigeria is projecting an 11 percent decline to 305,000 metric tons, contributing to upward price pressures. Guyana has increased producer prices to support livelihoods and stimulate tourism through infrastructure improvements in cocoa-producing regions.
• Globally, cocoa demand is weakening, with grindings in Europe down 7.2 percent and in Asia down 16.3 percent year on year, marking the lowest second-quarter levels in eight years. Despite this, the International Cocoa Organization has raised its estimate for the current season’s deficit to 494,000 metric tons but forecasts a surplus of 142,000 metric tons for 2024–25, driven by a 7.8 percent production rise to 4.84 million metric tons.
• A major concern in Côte d’Ivoire and Ghana is the increase in cocoa smuggling, fueled by high global prices, price disparities, weak enforcement, and corruption. This is causing substantial public revenue losses and threatening economic stability. These factors are shaping both current and future cocoa market dynamics, influencing everything from African economies to international chocolate pricing and agricultural sustainability efforts.

This week’s episode presents an overview of the global cocoa market as of August 3, 2025.

• Ivory Coast aims to increase its local cocoa processing rate from 42 percent to 50 percent by 2027, targeting 750,000 metric tons in annual grindings. This initiative is supported by infrastructure expansions such as a new grinding facility in Abidjan and the enlargement of the San Pedro Port. However, progress is hindered by slow export growth and deteriorating bean quality. In mid-July, exports grew just 6.8 percent year over year, a steep decline from 35 percent growth seen in December. The European Union’s new deforestation regulations, which require traceability, add further strain on smaller operators, prompting calls for government intervention. Meanwhile, cocoa yield for the mid-crop is estimated to fall 9 percent to 400,000 metric tons due to adverse weather, and the rollout of a digital traceability platform has sparked concerns about its impact on small exporters. Global demand for chocolate is also waning, as reflected by reduced grindings in major regions.
• In Ghana, a projected 8.3 percent increase in cocoa production to 650,000 metric tons is threatened by excessive rainfall, limited sunlight, and heightened risks of fungal diseases such as black pod. These conditions challenge the Ghana Cocoa Board’s production goals despite disease control efforts. Additionally, regional price disparities are driving cocoa smuggling, while quality issues are affecting neighboring producers and contributing to market instability.
• At the global level, the cocoa market faces its largest supply deficit in 60 years, with the International Cocoa Organization reporting a 494,000 metric tons shortfall for the 2023–2024 season. Grindings have declined in key areas, reflecting reduced demand, while high prices driven by supply constraints are dampening chocolate consumption and affecting financial forecasts. Upcoming policy changes, including tariff exemptions, may offer some relief but also introduce new complexities to international trade.
• The cocoa sectors in both Ivory Coast and Ghana are navigating a challenging period marked by environmental, regulatory, and market pressures. Strategic adaptations will be essential for these countries to maintain resilience and competitiveness in a volatile global market.

This episode provides a comprehensive overview of the cocoa market as of July 27, 2025.

• Ivory Coast is experiencing a notable reduction in both the volume and quality of its mid-crop cocoa. The crop is forecasted to reach 400,000 metric tons, reflecting a 9% year-over-year decline. Compounding concerns are rising defect rates, now at 5–6% per truckload compared to the usual 1%, raising alarms over quality.
• Export momentum from the region is slowing, as shown by a subdued 6.1% annual growth, a stark contrast to the 35% surge observed the previous December. Additionally, small cocoa firms are grappling with compliance issues related to new EU deforestation regulations, which may threaten their viability.
• On the demand side, global cocoa grindings are in decline. European grindings are down 7.2%, Asia's by 16.3%, and North America's by 2.8% year-over-year. These reductions are mirrored by weak financial results from major chocolate producers like Barry Callebaut and Lindt & Sprüngli. The bearish outlook is reinforced by rising U.S. inventories, now at a ten-and-a-half-month high, and a projected global surplus for the 2024–2025 season by the International Cocoa Organization.
• Despite these trends, the market remains volatile. A prior global deficit and falling production could prompt price spikes if supply disruptions or speculative activity arise. Long-term recovery would hinge on demand resurgence or further crop degradation. High input costs, such as those influencing Hershey’s decision to raise candy prices, underline the industry's strategic crossroads, where cost control and pricing decisions will be crucial.

This episode delivers an in-depth weekly summary of the global cocoa market as of July 20, 2025.

• Ivory Coast, the world’s largest cocoa producer, is experiencing mixed agricultural conditions. From October to July, cocoa shipments to ports are projected to increase by 6.8 percent. However, this figure is modest compared to the 35 percent surge reported the previous December. Heavy rainfall has disrupted the mid-crop harvest, leading to a rise in poor-quality beans, now affecting 5 to 6 percent of the harvest—up from 1 percent during the main crop. The mid-crop is estimated at 400,000 metric tons, marking a 9 percent decline from the previous year. These quality issues are contributing to price stabilization despite increasing supply.
• Ghana, the second-largest global cocoa producer, is forecasted to see an 8.3 percent year-on-year production increase in the 2025–2026 season, reaching 650,000 metric tons. This growth is supported by favorable weather, though sporadic adverse conditions still pose risks to productivity.
• In contrast, cocoa sectors in Nigeria and Cameroon are facing less favorable conditions. Limited data from these regions suggest that adverse weather may negatively impact yields, further tightening regional supply.
• On the demand side, there is a notable global downturn, with cocoa grinding activity declining in Asia, Europe, and North America. This reduction in demand, coupled with Ghana’s anticipated production boost, may exert downward pressure on global cocoa prices.
• The International Cocoa Organization has significantly revised its estimate of the 2023–2024 global cocoa deficit, now labeling it the largest in over 60 years. Nevertheless, a surplus is projected for the 2024–2025 period.
• Finally, cocoa futures markets remain volatile, reacting to ongoing crop yield updates, quality concerns in key regions like Ivory Coast, and broader economic influences. Major chocolate manufacturers are also adjusting production forecasts in response to fluctuating cocoa prices.

This episode provides a concise overview of the global cocoa market as of July 13, 2025,

• Ghana's cocoa production is projected to increase to 650,000 metric tons for the 2025–26 season, fostering a bearish global price sentiment. However, the Ghana Cocoa Board is struggling with GHS 33 billion in debt, potentially compromising its capacity to support farmers and manage input distribution. This financial strain may threaten the country’s ability to meet its production targets.
• In Ivory Coast, cocoa exports have slowed markedly, with growth dropping to 6.2 percent from last year’s 35 percent. Heavy rainfall has adversely affected the mid-crop harvest, leading to a rise in low-quality beans and contributing to a downward trend in total production, now estimated at 1.6 million metric tons from over 2 million.
• Nigeria has seen a 29 percent decline in cocoa exports, falling to 14,110 metric tons as of May. This reduction tightens global supply, which could support prices despite broader bearish pressures. Domestic processing initiatives in Nigeria are hindered by weak demand and infrastructural issues.
• Globally, the market faces significant downward pressure from increased production forecasts, notably in Ghana, and rising inventory levels in the United States. Consumer demand is weakening due to economic uncertainty, high prices, and tariff challenges affecting major chocolate producers. While the International Cocoa Organization projects a sharper deficit for the 2023–24 season, it anticipates a surplus for 2024–25, introducing additional complexity to future market expectations.

This episode delivers a comprehensive update on the global cocoa market as of July 6, 2025, highlighting both production shifts and economic challenges in key producing countries, as well as broader market dynamics.

• Guyana anticipates a cocoa harvest of 650,000 metric tons, marking an 8.3% increase over last season. This growth is attributed to favorable weather and better pod development, though pest control and input shortages may still hinder yields. In Ghana, the Cocoa Board is grappling with severe financial stress, including a debt of CD33 billion, prompting restructuring efforts to sustain farmer support and industry stability.
• The Ivory Coast, the leading global cocoa producer, reported 1,679,000 metric tons shipped between October 2024 and June 2025, reflecting a slowdown in growth. Quality issues have intensified due to poor weather, resulting in increased rejection rates of the mid-crop harvest. In response, the government is boosting domestic processing through a new state-owned factory to mitigate market pressures.
• Nigeria is investing in value-added processing and quality improvements to raise the domestic economic value of cocoa. However, challenges persist in promoting internal consumption to reduce dependency on raw exports. The creation of the National Cocoa Management Board reflects a strengthened regulatory approach.
• On the global front, the International Cocoa Organization forecasts a 494,000 metric ton deficit for the 2023–24 season, the largest in over 60 years. A potential surplus may emerge in 2024–25 due to expected production recoveries. Despite this, demand remains weak as high prices and economic uncertainty continue to suppress chocolate consumption, contributing to market volatility.

This episode delivers a concise yet detailed overview of the global cocoa market for the week of June 29, 2025. It highlights the contrasting regional conditions impacting production, from weather-related setbacks in West Africa to technological advances in South America.

• In the Ivory Coast, cocoa producers face a challenging mid-crop season due to cooler-than-average weather, which has slowed pod development and export activity despite some beneficial rainfall. Disease susceptibility is rising, prompting government investment in climate-resilient agriculture. Bean rejection rates have spiked to 6 percent compared to 1 percent during the main season, and the harvest is expected to decline by 9 percent to 400,000 metric tons.
• Ghana also anticipates a 3.3 percent shortfall in production. Financial constraints faced by Cocobod, combined with fiscal austerity, have limited access to essential inputs. Unfavorable weather in key regions such as Western North and Ashanti is hampering flowering and pod formation, further dampening the production outlook.
• In contrast, Brazil’s Para region reports a robust productivity rate of 847 kilograms per hectare. This performance is attributed to effective agroforestry, advanced pest control, and widespread use of real-time digital crop monitoring technologies, which are now deployed in over half of the region’s farms.
• Nigeria’s Ondo State is grappling with reputational damage from cocoa adulteration scandals. Authorities have responded with stricter enforcement and quality controls, though exports in April were still down 11 percent year on year.
• In Ecuador, cocoa production is split by climate: excessive rain in Manabi and Esmeraldas has led to flooding and disease risks, while drought conditions in Los Rios and Guayas are straining irrigation and overall crop health. These divergent conditions complicate national production prospects.

Episode Summary: Global Cocoa Market Update – June 22, 2025

• This week's global cocoa market overview spotlights complex dynamics across major producing countries.
• In the Ivory Coast, mid-crop conditions are mixed. While rainfall has been largely supportive, erratic temperatures and increased incidence of pod disease are affecting pod ripening. Export volumes have slowed notably compared to late 2024. In Ghana, production prospects remain strained. Financial limitations at the Cocoa Board have delayed fertilizer distribution, while erratic weather adds further risk. The mid-crop harvest may fall short of initial targets, reflecting deeper economic challenges tied to credit downgrades and fiscal tightening.
• Brazil's cocoa sector, particularly in Pará state, continues to strengthen. With yields averaging 847 kilograms per hectare, a 5% production boost is anticipated through the integration of agroforestry and digital farming technologies. Nigeria is tackling cocoa adulteration in Ondo state to safeguard export quality, amid an 11% year-over-year decline in April cocoa exports, potentially indicating broader structural issues.
• In Ecuador, uneven rainfall patterns are creating regional disparities in cocoa output. While heavy rains in areas like Manabí and Esmeraldas demand increased crop protection efforts, water scarcity in Los Ríos and Goias is heightening reliance on irrigation systems that are not fully operational.
• Overall, the global cocoa market remains sensitive to weather fluctuations, disease prevalence, infrastructure constraints, and shifting financial conditions. As volatility persists, close monitoring of agronomic and market signals is essential. 

Podcast Episode Summary: Global Cocoa Market Weekly – June 8, 2025

This week’s cocoa market update offers a comprehensive overview of production developments and climatic challenges across key producing nations.

In Ivory Coast, cocoa production continues to be affected by erratic weather patterns and declining bean quality. Despite this, the country remains a dominant exporter, with shipments reaching 1.6 million metric tons—a 9.6% year-on-year increase. However, mid-crop quality issues are emerging, with up to 6% of beans showing defects.

Ghana faces a 5% reduction in its 2024/25 output forecast, driven by insufficient rainfall and elevated temperatures. The Ghana Cocoa Board is attempting to stabilize the sector through policy efforts, including competitive farm gate pricing, but ongoing climate stress hampers results.

In Ecuador, persistent dryness and lower temperatures are stressing the mid-crop, particularly in Los Rios and Manabí, raising concerns about overall yields.

Nigeria is witnessing renewed interest in cocoa farming, fueled by strong global prices and a weak naira. While production shows signs of recovery, issues like smuggling—estimated at 200,000 tons annually—obscure accurate tracking. Regulatory efforts are underway to improve sustainability and data transparency.

Brazil is expanding its cocoa sector through strategic rural credit initiatives, especially in Pará, and is promoting formal supply chain integration. Events such as the Amazon Cocoa and Chocolate Fair highlight the country’s growing commitment to cocoa development.

Meanwhile, South Sudan is making early progress by distributing cocoa seedlings—10 million planned, with 800,000 already delivered—to improve livelihoods and promote climate resilience.

The episode concludes by emphasizing that each country's ability to adapt to environmental pressures and implement effective policies will shape their future in the evolving global cocoa market.