This episode provides a detailed weekly overview of the global cocoa market for September 7, 2025.

• Ivory Coast, the world's leading cocoa producer, is facing its worst drought in 46 years. The dry conditions have reduced pod retention, slowed exports since December, and raised concerns about quality. Mid-crop rejection rates have climbed to 5 to 6 percent, compared to the usual 1 percent, and production is forecast to decline by 9 percent to 400,000 metric tons, down from 440,000 last year. 
• Ghana offers a more optimistic picture, with production expected to rise by 8.3 percent to 650,000 metric tons in the 2025–26 season. However, disease pressures, particularly black pod intensified by cold and dry weather, remain a threat. To mitigate risks, the Ghana Cocoa Board has introduced an expanded seedling program targeting 75,000 farms. 
• Nigeria continues to struggle with weather and disease issues, with forecasts pointing to an 11 percent production decline to about 305,000 metric tons. Although June exports showed a modest improvement over last year, persistent post-harvest losses and poor infrastructure, especially in storage and transport, weigh heavily on long-term output. 
• Cameroon faces a projected 6 percent drop in production due to pests and erratic weather. Authorities are considering emergency measures to address infestations. Ecuador is also contending with climate-related challenges. Regions such as Esmeraldas and Manabi are experiencing excess moisture that delays drying and increases disease risk, while Guayas faces drought and potential pod shrinkage. Producers in the country are voicing concerns about the quality of upcoming shipments. 

This episode delivers a detailed overview of the global cocoa market.

• In the Ivory Coast, cocoa prices have dropped amid forecasts of improved rainfall following the driest 30-day stretch since 1979. Although the rainfall may help stabilize yields ahead of the October harvest, mid-crop quality concerns persist. Estimates for the 2025 mid-crop have been revised downward by 9% to 400,000 metric tons, while cocoa rejection rates during transport have risen significantly, signaling broader quality issues. Export growth has also slowed, totaling 1.79 million metric tons since October.
• Ghana is grappling with the impact of black pod disease due to cold, dry conditions, which have also affected neighboring Nigeria. Nonetheless, Ghana’s cocoa production is projected to increase by 8.3% to 650,000 metric tons, creating a bearish price outlook due to anticipated supply growth. However, farming sector challenges—including delayed payments and shortages of key inputs—could compromise these projections if not promptly addressed.
• Nigeria is expected to see an 11% drop in production, down to 305,000 metric tons, driven by continued adverse weather. This could cause localized shortages despite the broader surplus. Rural transport issues are further increasing post-harvest losses. Cameroon also faces a potential 6% year-over-year decline due to weather variability and pest pressure.
• On a global scale, cocoa demand is weakening, with grindings down in Europe, Asia, and North America, signaling a slowdown in the chocolate sector. With global production forecasted to rise by 7.8% to 4.84 million metric tons, the market is shifting into surplus territory for the first time in four years. Technical indicators show a continued bearish trend, with September 2025 futures breaking below both 50-day and 200-day moving averages. Current support levels are at $7,385, with resistance now lowered to around $8,000.

This episode provides a comprehensive overview of the global cocoa market as of August 24, 2025.

• In Ivory Coast, the cocoa sector faces significant strain due to the longest dry spells in 46 years, affecting pod retention and threatening harvest volumes. While upcoming rains may improve crop conditions, mid-crop cocoa has already suffered, with processors reporting rejection rates as high as 56 percent compared to just 1 percent during the main crop. U.S. port inventories are down, partly due to slower exports from Ivory Coast, although improved rainfall offers cautious optimism for the next main crop season.
• Ghana is forecasted to produce 650,000 metric tons for the 2025-26 crop year, an 8.3 percent year-over-year increase. However, dissatisfaction among farmers over uncompetitive producer prices could lead to smuggling and instability, potentially impacting support services and future output.
• Nigeria is expecting an 11 percent decline in cocoa production due to adverse weather, falling to 305,000 metric tons. On the demand side, cocoa grindings have dropped in Europe (down 7.2 percent), Asia, and North America (declining by 16.3 and 2.8 percent, respectively), indicating a broader decrease in global demand.
• The International Cocoa Organization predicts a shift from a current global deficit to a surplus in the coming years, driven by expected increases in production. This shift could ease price pressures but will hinge on improving weather in West Africa and resolution of farmer unrest in key producing countries.
• Technical market factors also play a role, with cocoa futures responding to pressures at critical support and resistance levels. Stakeholders are advised to closely monitor weather trends and market sentiment in this volatile environment.

This episode provides a detailed weekly summary of the global cocoa market as of August 17, 2025.

• Ivory Coast, the world's largest cocoa producer, is currently facing unfavorable weather conditions characterized by below-average rainfall and high temperatures. These conditions are jeopardizing pod development ahead of the October main crop harvest. Despite this, the country has seen a 6.6% year-over-year increase in cocoa exports, totaling 1,780,000 metric tons between October and August 10. However, this growth reflects a decrease from a December export surge, and concerns remain about crop quality, with 5% to 6% of the mid-crop yield classified as poor due to delayed rains. The mid-crop yield is estimated at 400,000 metric tons, marking a 9% decline from the previous year.
• In contrast, Ghana forecasts an 8.3% increase in cocoa production for the 2025–2026 period, reaching 650,000 metric tons. The growth is supported by government initiatives such as fertilizer subsidies and pest control programs. Meanwhile, Nigeria expects an 11% decline in cocoa output, down to 305,000 metric tons, due to adverse weather and aging plantations. Nevertheless, demand for Nigerian cocoa is rising, particularly through new trade ties with Belgium, reflecting the country's shift towards agricultural exports.
• Globally, the cocoa market is in flux, with production variances and shifting demand patterns. Cocoa grinding has declined in Europe (7.2%), Asia (16.3%), and North America (2.8%), highlighting demand fluctuations. Despite this, the International Cocoa Organization has reported a record global deficit of 494,000 metric tons for the 2023–2024 season, followed by a forecasted surplus of 142,000 metric tons for 2024–2025, influencing market prices.
• The episode also discusses technological innovations, such as MARS Inc.'s collaboration with Pairwise on CRISPR gene editing. These efforts aim to enhance cocoa crop resilience and productivity in response to challenges like climate change and disease, aligning with broader strategies for agricultural advancement and economic diversification across West Africa.

This episode provides a detailed overview of the global cocoa market for the week of August 10, 2025.

• The Ivory Coast, the largest global cocoa producer, is facing a significant slowdown in production growth, with exports up only 6 percent this year to 1.76 million metric tons, compared to a 35 percent increase last year. Adverse weather conditions, including reduced rainfall and higher temperatures, are impacting both yield and quality ahead of the main crop harvest in October. Mid-crop yields have been revised downward to 400,000 metric tons from an earlier 440,000 metric ton forecast, due to quality rejections affecting up to 6 percent of the crop. Political considerations are also at play, with speculation that the government may raise cocoa prices before upcoming elections to secure farmer support.
• Ghana, the second-largest producer, expects an 8.3 percent production increase for the 2025–26 season, potentially reaching 650,000 metric tons. This could exert downward pressure on global prices. In contrast, Nigeria is projecting an 11 percent decline to 305,000 metric tons, contributing to upward price pressures. Guyana has increased producer prices to support livelihoods and stimulate tourism through infrastructure improvements in cocoa-producing regions.
• Globally, cocoa demand is weakening, with grindings in Europe down 7.2 percent and in Asia down 16.3 percent year on year, marking the lowest second-quarter levels in eight years. Despite this, the International Cocoa Organization has raised its estimate for the current season’s deficit to 494,000 metric tons but forecasts a surplus of 142,000 metric tons for 2024–25, driven by a 7.8 percent production rise to 4.84 million metric tons.
• A major concern in Côte d’Ivoire and Ghana is the increase in cocoa smuggling, fueled by high global prices, price disparities, weak enforcement, and corruption. This is causing substantial public revenue losses and threatening economic stability. These factors are shaping both current and future cocoa market dynamics, influencing everything from African economies to international chocolate pricing and agricultural sustainability efforts.

This week’s episode presents an overview of the global cocoa market as of August 3, 2025.

• Ivory Coast aims to increase its local cocoa processing rate from 42 percent to 50 percent by 2027, targeting 750,000 metric tons in annual grindings. This initiative is supported by infrastructure expansions such as a new grinding facility in Abidjan and the enlargement of the San Pedro Port. However, progress is hindered by slow export growth and deteriorating bean quality. In mid-July, exports grew just 6.8 percent year over year, a steep decline from 35 percent growth seen in December. The European Union’s new deforestation regulations, which require traceability, add further strain on smaller operators, prompting calls for government intervention. Meanwhile, cocoa yield for the mid-crop is estimated to fall 9 percent to 400,000 metric tons due to adverse weather, and the rollout of a digital traceability platform has sparked concerns about its impact on small exporters. Global demand for chocolate is also waning, as reflected by reduced grindings in major regions.
• In Ghana, a projected 8.3 percent increase in cocoa production to 650,000 metric tons is threatened by excessive rainfall, limited sunlight, and heightened risks of fungal diseases such as black pod. These conditions challenge the Ghana Cocoa Board’s production goals despite disease control efforts. Additionally, regional price disparities are driving cocoa smuggling, while quality issues are affecting neighboring producers and contributing to market instability.
• At the global level, the cocoa market faces its largest supply deficit in 60 years, with the International Cocoa Organization reporting a 494,000 metric tons shortfall for the 2023–2024 season. Grindings have declined in key areas, reflecting reduced demand, while high prices driven by supply constraints are dampening chocolate consumption and affecting financial forecasts. Upcoming policy changes, including tariff exemptions, may offer some relief but also introduce new complexities to international trade.
• The cocoa sectors in both Ivory Coast and Ghana are navigating a challenging period marked by environmental, regulatory, and market pressures. Strategic adaptations will be essential for these countries to maintain resilience and competitiveness in a volatile global market.

This episode provides a comprehensive overview of the cocoa market as of July 27, 2025.

• Ivory Coast is experiencing a notable reduction in both the volume and quality of its mid-crop cocoa. The crop is forecasted to reach 400,000 metric tons, reflecting a 9% year-over-year decline. Compounding concerns are rising defect rates, now at 5–6% per truckload compared to the usual 1%, raising alarms over quality.
• Export momentum from the region is slowing, as shown by a subdued 6.1% annual growth, a stark contrast to the 35% surge observed the previous December. Additionally, small cocoa firms are grappling with compliance issues related to new EU deforestation regulations, which may threaten their viability.
• On the demand side, global cocoa grindings are in decline. European grindings are down 7.2%, Asia's by 16.3%, and North America's by 2.8% year-over-year. These reductions are mirrored by weak financial results from major chocolate producers like Barry Callebaut and Lindt & Sprüngli. The bearish outlook is reinforced by rising U.S. inventories, now at a ten-and-a-half-month high, and a projected global surplus for the 2024–2025 season by the International Cocoa Organization.
• Despite these trends, the market remains volatile. A prior global deficit and falling production could prompt price spikes if supply disruptions or speculative activity arise. Long-term recovery would hinge on demand resurgence or further crop degradation. High input costs, such as those influencing Hershey’s decision to raise candy prices, underline the industry's strategic crossroads, where cost control and pricing decisions will be crucial.

This episode delivers an in-depth weekly summary of the global cocoa market as of July 20, 2025.

• Ivory Coast, the world’s largest cocoa producer, is experiencing mixed agricultural conditions. From October to July, cocoa shipments to ports are projected to increase by 6.8 percent. However, this figure is modest compared to the 35 percent surge reported the previous December. Heavy rainfall has disrupted the mid-crop harvest, leading to a rise in poor-quality beans, now affecting 5 to 6 percent of the harvest—up from 1 percent during the main crop. The mid-crop is estimated at 400,000 metric tons, marking a 9 percent decline from the previous year. These quality issues are contributing to price stabilization despite increasing supply.
• Ghana, the second-largest global cocoa producer, is forecasted to see an 8.3 percent year-on-year production increase in the 2025–2026 season, reaching 650,000 metric tons. This growth is supported by favorable weather, though sporadic adverse conditions still pose risks to productivity.
• In contrast, cocoa sectors in Nigeria and Cameroon are facing less favorable conditions. Limited data from these regions suggest that adverse weather may negatively impact yields, further tightening regional supply.
• On the demand side, there is a notable global downturn, with cocoa grinding activity declining in Asia, Europe, and North America. This reduction in demand, coupled with Ghana’s anticipated production boost, may exert downward pressure on global cocoa prices.
• The International Cocoa Organization has significantly revised its estimate of the 2023–2024 global cocoa deficit, now labeling it the largest in over 60 years. Nevertheless, a surplus is projected for the 2024–2025 period.
• Finally, cocoa futures markets remain volatile, reacting to ongoing crop yield updates, quality concerns in key regions like Ivory Coast, and broader economic influences. Major chocolate manufacturers are also adjusting production forecasts in response to fluctuating cocoa prices.

This episode provides a concise overview of the global cocoa market as of July 13, 2025,

• Ghana's cocoa production is projected to increase to 650,000 metric tons for the 2025–26 season, fostering a bearish global price sentiment. However, the Ghana Cocoa Board is struggling with GHS 33 billion in debt, potentially compromising its capacity to support farmers and manage input distribution. This financial strain may threaten the country’s ability to meet its production targets.
• In Ivory Coast, cocoa exports have slowed markedly, with growth dropping to 6.2 percent from last year’s 35 percent. Heavy rainfall has adversely affected the mid-crop harvest, leading to a rise in low-quality beans and contributing to a downward trend in total production, now estimated at 1.6 million metric tons from over 2 million.
• Nigeria has seen a 29 percent decline in cocoa exports, falling to 14,110 metric tons as of May. This reduction tightens global supply, which could support prices despite broader bearish pressures. Domestic processing initiatives in Nigeria are hindered by weak demand and infrastructural issues.
• Globally, the market faces significant downward pressure from increased production forecasts, notably in Ghana, and rising inventory levels in the United States. Consumer demand is weakening due to economic uncertainty, high prices, and tariff challenges affecting major chocolate producers. While the International Cocoa Organization projects a sharper deficit for the 2023–24 season, it anticipates a surplus for 2024–25, introducing additional complexity to future market expectations.