CropGPT - Cocoa

This week's cocoa market report highlights regional production shifts.

• In the Ivory Coast, cocoa pod counts have risen 7% above the five-year average, driven by higher farmgate prices. However, exports fell sharply, down over 50% year on year, totaling just 48,753 metric tons in early October. While the elevated pricing policy aims to support farmer incomes and encourage production, critics warn it may lead to global oversupply. Additionally, mid-crop quality and volumes have declined due to insufficient rainfall, with estimates lowered to 400,000 metric tons (a 9% annual drop).
• Ghana, by contrast, has seen a surge in cocoa deliveries. Between August and early September, arrivals reached 50,440 metric tons, up from just 11,000 metric tons the prior year. This has boosted optimism for the 2025–26 main crop, with a target of 650,000 metric tons, up 8.3% from last year. Meanwhile, Nigeria faces a forecasted 11% production drop to 305,000 metric tons, driven by aging trees, poor infrastructure, and shortages of agricultural inputs. Although exports rose by 15% in August, they declined 22% year on year in July, reflecting ongoing systemic issues.
• Globally, the International Cocoa Organization projects a 142,000 metric ton surplus for the current season, driven by a 7.8% increase in production to 4.84 million metric tons. This supply growth, coupled with weakening grind data from key regions (including a 35% year-on-year drop in Malaysia's Q3 grindings and a 21% decline in North American chocolate candy sales), is placing downward pressure on prices.
• Despite short-term tensions such as ICE-monitored stocks falling to a six-month low, the broader market outlook remains bearish. 

This episode provides a concise update on the global cocoa market as of October 12, 2025.

• Ivory Coast has increased its guaranteed farm gate price to $4.5 per kilogram, a strategic move ahead of upcoming elections aimed at improving farmer incomes. As the world’s leading cocoa producer, contributing 14% to national GDP and supporting around 5 million people, this price hike may prompt neighboring countries like Ghana to reevaluate their own pricing models. Favorable weather conditions support strong cocoa pod development, although concerns persist about mid-crop quality due to earlier adverse weather.
• Ghana has responded with a fivefold increase in cocoa deliveries, reaching 50,440 metric tons in a recent month. The country is also raising farmer payouts to boost production, which is projected to grow 8.3% annually to 650,000 metric tons. In contrast, Nigeria anticipates an 11% decline in output to 305,000 metric tons, citing poor farm management, declining exports, and limited access to farming inputs. These trends highlight structural weaknesses in Nigeria’s cocoa sector.
• The International Cocoa Organization forecasts a global surplus of 142,000 metric tons for the 2024–2025 season, driven mainly by increased production in Ivory Coast and Ghana. Despite rising output, global demand remains subdued. Chocolate consumption is falling in key markets such as Europe, Asia, and North America due to high cocoa prices and economic pressures. This supply-demand imbalance is contributing to downward pressure on prices, presenting both challenges for producers and potential price relief for consumers.

This week's cocoa market update focuses on production trends, policy responses, and disease challenges shaping the outlook across major West African producers: Ivory Coast, Ghana, and Nigeria.

• Ivory Coast is experiencing a mixed production season. While the main crop (October to March) shows promise with a 7 percent increase in pod counts above the five-year average due to favorable weather, the mid-crop harvest (April to September) fell 9 percent year over year. This decline is linked to late rains that hindered pod development. Export growth slowed significantly, dropping from a 35 percent rise as of December 2024 to just 4.6 percent year over year. The cocoa swollen shoot virus continues to pose a major threat, with potential yield losses of up to 70 percent.
• In Ghana, the government has implemented a strategic 12 percent increase in farm gate cocoa prices for the 2025–2026 season. This move is designed to support farmer incomes and boost production, with forecasts indicating an 8.3 percent rise. However, risks remain from the swollen shoot virus and climate-induced dry spells, which may offset gains. Weak global demand and the possibility of cocoa surpluses could place downward pressure on prices.
• Nigeria faces an expected 11 percent drop in cocoa production for the season, mainly due to adverse weather and disease. Nonetheless, exports have managed a modest year-over-year increase. The production challenges reflect broader regional concerns around quality control, disease management, and agricultural practices.

This episode provides a comprehensive overview of the current trends, challenges, and developments shaping the global cocoa market. 

• Côte d’Ivoire, which contributes about 40% of the world’s cocoa supply, continues to benefit from government-led agricultural improvement and sustainability initiatives. However, these gains are moderated by unpredictable weather conditions and threats from pests and disease. Political stability and a supportive regulatory environment remain essential to maintaining production levels. Recent projections indicate potential output growth, bolstered by favorable conditions and efforts to replace aging cocoa trees.
• In Ghana, the second largest global producer, the emphasis on sustainable farming is beginning to show positive results in yield improvement. The Ghana Cocoa Board plays a critical role by equipping farmers with training and resources. Rising global demand for high-quality cocoa, especially for dark chocolate, is also influencing market dynamics.
• Despite these advancements, cocoa farmers face volatility. Price fluctuations continue to threaten income stability and the long-term viability of sustainable practices. Nigeria, facing an 11% projected year-on-year decline in production, struggles with plant diseases and inefficient farming techniques. Market and economic pressures further affect pricing and profitability.
• Ecuador is emerging as a significant player, with expected production exceeding 650,000 metric tons in the 2025–26 season. High cocoa prices are driving investment, and Ecuadorian farmers receive a larger share of global market prices—about 90%—which enhances profitability. The adoption of agroforestry systems supports both sustainability and disease management.
• On a global level, the cocoa market is undergoing structural changes. Elevated prices are reshaping demand, pushing some buyers toward more cost-effective options or reducing their purchases. The International Cocoa Organization anticipates a global surplus, which could help stabilize prices but also pose risks if demand continues to weaken. Across regions, sustainable farming remains essential for long-term industry resilience in the face of evolving economic and environmental conditions.

This week's episode provides a global cocoa market developments as of September 21, 2025.

• In Ivory Coast, favorable weather has boosted the main cocoa crop, but extended heavy rains have hampered port deliveries and bean drying, raising quality concerns. The mid-crop output has declined 9% year over year, reaching 400,000 metric tons. Export growth has also slowed to 5.8%, further altering market dynamics.
• Ghana forecasts an 8.3% increase in cocoa production for the 2025–2026 season, aiming for 650,000 metric tons. This outlook is underpinned by better access to fertilizers and pest control, though irregular rainfall and the prevalence of black pod disease continue to threaten yields and processing margins, especially in the Western North region.
• Nigeria anticipates an 11% production decline to 305,000 metric tons, primarily due to erratic weather and logistical challenges. Nonetheless, exports have edged up by 0.9% year over year. Policy measures are being considered to support the sector.
• Cameroon is also facing a projected 6% production decrease, driven by pest pressure and inconsistent rainfall. Emergency pesticide efforts and price stabilization initiatives are in motion, but climatic instability remains a threat to quality premiums.
• In Ecuador, extreme heat and rainfall shortages have negatively affected cocoa pod development and bean weight, prompting concerns over meeting premium export standards. Exporters have called for emergency government support to mitigate these challenges.
• Despite positive crop projections in some regions, the global cocoa market remains cautious due to persistent structural vulnerabilities and quality concerns, which continue to impact local economies and international supply chains.

This episode explores key developments in the global cocoa market.

• In Ivory Coast, despite increased pod counts and an optimistic harvest forecast, quality concerns persist due to late rains affecting pod development. The mid-crop yield is now projected at 400,000 tons. Although export volumes remain stable, they represent a slowdown from prior peaks, further strained by dry conditions impacting both quality and quantity. The suspension of operations by Cargill due to bean quality deterioration underscores the ongoing challenges for regional processors.
• Ghana expects an 8.3 percent increase in cocoa production for the 2025–2026 season, reaching 650,000 metric tons, supported by yield enhancement programs. However, disease threats like black pod disease, fueled by abnormal moisture, pose risks to future harvests.
• Nigeria faces an 11 percent decline in cocoa production, down to 305,000 tons, largely due to adverse weather and disease pressure. Nonetheless, a modest 0.9 percent year-on-year increase in exports suggests a degree of resilience. Long-term concerns persist over infrastructure and disease management.
• Cameroon anticipates a 6 percent drop in output, driven by rising pest infestations and erratic rainfall, prompting government consideration of emergency interventions. Meanwhile, Ecuador's cocoa sector is being negatively impacted by extreme temperatures and insufficient rainfall, which are producing smaller beans and raising concerns over quality in both domestic and export markets.

This episode provides a detailed weekly overview of the global cocoa market for September 7, 2025.

• Ivory Coast, the world's leading cocoa producer, is facing its worst drought in 46 years. The dry conditions have reduced pod retention, slowed exports since December, and raised concerns about quality. Mid-crop rejection rates have climbed to 5 to 6 percent, compared to the usual 1 percent, and production is forecast to decline by 9 percent to 400,000 metric tons, down from 440,000 last year. 
• Ghana offers a more optimistic picture, with production expected to rise by 8.3 percent to 650,000 metric tons in the 2025–26 season. However, disease pressures, particularly black pod intensified by cold and dry weather, remain a threat. To mitigate risks, the Ghana Cocoa Board has introduced an expanded seedling program targeting 75,000 farms. 
• Nigeria continues to struggle with weather and disease issues, with forecasts pointing to an 11 percent production decline to about 305,000 metric tons. Although June exports showed a modest improvement over last year, persistent post-harvest losses and poor infrastructure, especially in storage and transport, weigh heavily on long-term output. 
• Cameroon faces a projected 6 percent drop in production due to pests and erratic weather. Authorities are considering emergency measures to address infestations. Ecuador is also contending with climate-related challenges. Regions such as Esmeraldas and Manabi are experiencing excess moisture that delays drying and increases disease risk, while Guayas faces drought and potential pod shrinkage. Producers in the country are voicing concerns about the quality of upcoming shipments. 

This episode delivers a detailed overview of the global cocoa market.

• In the Ivory Coast, cocoa prices have dropped amid forecasts of improved rainfall following the driest 30-day stretch since 1979. Although the rainfall may help stabilize yields ahead of the October harvest, mid-crop quality concerns persist. Estimates for the 2025 mid-crop have been revised downward by 9% to 400,000 metric tons, while cocoa rejection rates during transport have risen significantly, signaling broader quality issues. Export growth has also slowed, totaling 1.79 million metric tons since October.
• Ghana is grappling with the impact of black pod disease due to cold, dry conditions, which have also affected neighboring Nigeria. Nonetheless, Ghana’s cocoa production is projected to increase by 8.3% to 650,000 metric tons, creating a bearish price outlook due to anticipated supply growth. However, farming sector challenges—including delayed payments and shortages of key inputs—could compromise these projections if not promptly addressed.
• Nigeria is expected to see an 11% drop in production, down to 305,000 metric tons, driven by continued adverse weather. This could cause localized shortages despite the broader surplus. Rural transport issues are further increasing post-harvest losses. Cameroon also faces a potential 6% year-over-year decline due to weather variability and pest pressure.
• On a global scale, cocoa demand is weakening, with grindings down in Europe, Asia, and North America, signaling a slowdown in the chocolate sector. With global production forecasted to rise by 7.8% to 4.84 million metric tons, the market is shifting into surplus territory for the first time in four years. Technical indicators show a continued bearish trend, with September 2025 futures breaking below both 50-day and 200-day moving averages. Current support levels are at $7,385, with resistance now lowered to around $8,000.

This episode provides a comprehensive overview of the global cocoa market as of August 24, 2025.

• In Ivory Coast, the cocoa sector faces significant strain due to the longest dry spells in 46 years, affecting pod retention and threatening harvest volumes. While upcoming rains may improve crop conditions, mid-crop cocoa has already suffered, with processors reporting rejection rates as high as 56 percent compared to just 1 percent during the main crop. U.S. port inventories are down, partly due to slower exports from Ivory Coast, although improved rainfall offers cautious optimism for the next main crop season.
• Ghana is forecasted to produce 650,000 metric tons for the 2025-26 crop year, an 8.3 percent year-over-year increase. However, dissatisfaction among farmers over uncompetitive producer prices could lead to smuggling and instability, potentially impacting support services and future output.
• Nigeria is expecting an 11 percent decline in cocoa production due to adverse weather, falling to 305,000 metric tons. On the demand side, cocoa grindings have dropped in Europe (down 7.2 percent), Asia, and North America (declining by 16.3 and 2.8 percent, respectively), indicating a broader decrease in global demand.
• The International Cocoa Organization predicts a shift from a current global deficit to a surplus in the coming years, driven by expected increases in production. This shift could ease price pressures but will hinge on improving weather in West Africa and resolution of farmer unrest in key producing countries.
• Technical market factors also play a role, with cocoa futures responding to pressures at critical support and resistance levels. Stakeholders are advised to closely monitor weather trends and market sentiment in this volatile environment.