This episode provides a comprehensive overview of the current trends, challenges, and developments shaping the global cocoa market. 

• Côte d’Ivoire, which contributes about 40% of the world’s cocoa supply, continues to benefit from government-led agricultural improvement and sustainability initiatives. However, these gains are moderated by unpredictable weather conditions and threats from pests and disease. Political stability and a supportive regulatory environment remain essential to maintaining production levels. Recent projections indicate potential output growth, bolstered by favorable conditions and efforts to replace aging cocoa trees.
• In Ghana, the second largest global producer, the emphasis on sustainable farming is beginning to show positive results in yield improvement. The Ghana Cocoa Board plays a critical role by equipping farmers with training and resources. Rising global demand for high-quality cocoa, especially for dark chocolate, is also influencing market dynamics.
• Despite these advancements, cocoa farmers face volatility. Price fluctuations continue to threaten income stability and the long-term viability of sustainable practices. Nigeria, facing an 11% projected year-on-year decline in production, struggles with plant diseases and inefficient farming techniques. Market and economic pressures further affect pricing and profitability.
• Ecuador is emerging as a significant player, with expected production exceeding 650,000 metric tons in the 2025–26 season. High cocoa prices are driving investment, and Ecuadorian farmers receive a larger share of global market prices—about 90%—which enhances profitability. The adoption of agroforestry systems supports both sustainability and disease management.
• On a global level, the cocoa market is undergoing structural changes. Elevated prices are reshaping demand, pushing some buyers toward more cost-effective options or reducing their purchases. The International Cocoa Organization anticipates a global surplus, which could help stabilize prices but also pose risks if demand continues to weaken. Across regions, sustainable farming remains essential for long-term industry resilience in the face of evolving economic and environmental conditions.

This week's episode provides a global cocoa market developments as of September 21, 2025.

• In Ivory Coast, favorable weather has boosted the main cocoa crop, but extended heavy rains have hampered port deliveries and bean drying, raising quality concerns. The mid-crop output has declined 9% year over year, reaching 400,000 metric tons. Export growth has also slowed to 5.8%, further altering market dynamics.
• Ghana forecasts an 8.3% increase in cocoa production for the 2025–2026 season, aiming for 650,000 metric tons. This outlook is underpinned by better access to fertilizers and pest control, though irregular rainfall and the prevalence of black pod disease continue to threaten yields and processing margins, especially in the Western North region.
• Nigeria anticipates an 11% production decline to 305,000 metric tons, primarily due to erratic weather and logistical challenges. Nonetheless, exports have edged up by 0.9% year over year. Policy measures are being considered to support the sector.
• Cameroon is also facing a projected 6% production decrease, driven by pest pressure and inconsistent rainfall. Emergency pesticide efforts and price stabilization initiatives are in motion, but climatic instability remains a threat to quality premiums.
• In Ecuador, extreme heat and rainfall shortages have negatively affected cocoa pod development and bean weight, prompting concerns over meeting premium export standards. Exporters have called for emergency government support to mitigate these challenges.
• Despite positive crop projections in some regions, the global cocoa market remains cautious due to persistent structural vulnerabilities and quality concerns, which continue to impact local economies and international supply chains.

This episode explores key developments in the global cocoa market.

• In Ivory Coast, despite increased pod counts and an optimistic harvest forecast, quality concerns persist due to late rains affecting pod development. The mid-crop yield is now projected at 400,000 tons. Although export volumes remain stable, they represent a slowdown from prior peaks, further strained by dry conditions impacting both quality and quantity. The suspension of operations by Cargill due to bean quality deterioration underscores the ongoing challenges for regional processors.
• Ghana expects an 8.3 percent increase in cocoa production for the 2025–2026 season, reaching 650,000 metric tons, supported by yield enhancement programs. However, disease threats like black pod disease, fueled by abnormal moisture, pose risks to future harvests.
• Nigeria faces an 11 percent decline in cocoa production, down to 305,000 tons, largely due to adverse weather and disease pressure. Nonetheless, a modest 0.9 percent year-on-year increase in exports suggests a degree of resilience. Long-term concerns persist over infrastructure and disease management.
• Cameroon anticipates a 6 percent drop in output, driven by rising pest infestations and erratic rainfall, prompting government consideration of emergency interventions. Meanwhile, Ecuador's cocoa sector is being negatively impacted by extreme temperatures and insufficient rainfall, which are producing smaller beans and raising concerns over quality in both domestic and export markets.

This episode provides a detailed weekly overview of the global cocoa market for September 7, 2025.

• Ivory Coast, the world's leading cocoa producer, is facing its worst drought in 46 years. The dry conditions have reduced pod retention, slowed exports since December, and raised concerns about quality. Mid-crop rejection rates have climbed to 5 to 6 percent, compared to the usual 1 percent, and production is forecast to decline by 9 percent to 400,000 metric tons, down from 440,000 last year. 
• Ghana offers a more optimistic picture, with production expected to rise by 8.3 percent to 650,000 metric tons in the 2025–26 season. However, disease pressures, particularly black pod intensified by cold and dry weather, remain a threat. To mitigate risks, the Ghana Cocoa Board has introduced an expanded seedling program targeting 75,000 farms. 
• Nigeria continues to struggle with weather and disease issues, with forecasts pointing to an 11 percent production decline to about 305,000 metric tons. Although June exports showed a modest improvement over last year, persistent post-harvest losses and poor infrastructure, especially in storage and transport, weigh heavily on long-term output. 
• Cameroon faces a projected 6 percent drop in production due to pests and erratic weather. Authorities are considering emergency measures to address infestations. Ecuador is also contending with climate-related challenges. Regions such as Esmeraldas and Manabi are experiencing excess moisture that delays drying and increases disease risk, while Guayas faces drought and potential pod shrinkage. Producers in the country are voicing concerns about the quality of upcoming shipments. 

This episode delivers a detailed overview of the global cocoa market.

• In the Ivory Coast, cocoa prices have dropped amid forecasts of improved rainfall following the driest 30-day stretch since 1979. Although the rainfall may help stabilize yields ahead of the October harvest, mid-crop quality concerns persist. Estimates for the 2025 mid-crop have been revised downward by 9% to 400,000 metric tons, while cocoa rejection rates during transport have risen significantly, signaling broader quality issues. Export growth has also slowed, totaling 1.79 million metric tons since October.
• Ghana is grappling with the impact of black pod disease due to cold, dry conditions, which have also affected neighboring Nigeria. Nonetheless, Ghana’s cocoa production is projected to increase by 8.3% to 650,000 metric tons, creating a bearish price outlook due to anticipated supply growth. However, farming sector challenges—including delayed payments and shortages of key inputs—could compromise these projections if not promptly addressed.
• Nigeria is expected to see an 11% drop in production, down to 305,000 metric tons, driven by continued adverse weather. This could cause localized shortages despite the broader surplus. Rural transport issues are further increasing post-harvest losses. Cameroon also faces a potential 6% year-over-year decline due to weather variability and pest pressure.
• On a global scale, cocoa demand is weakening, with grindings down in Europe, Asia, and North America, signaling a slowdown in the chocolate sector. With global production forecasted to rise by 7.8% to 4.84 million metric tons, the market is shifting into surplus territory for the first time in four years. Technical indicators show a continued bearish trend, with September 2025 futures breaking below both 50-day and 200-day moving averages. Current support levels are at $7,385, with resistance now lowered to around $8,000.

This episode provides a comprehensive overview of the global cocoa market as of August 24, 2025.

• In Ivory Coast, the cocoa sector faces significant strain due to the longest dry spells in 46 years, affecting pod retention and threatening harvest volumes. While upcoming rains may improve crop conditions, mid-crop cocoa has already suffered, with processors reporting rejection rates as high as 56 percent compared to just 1 percent during the main crop. U.S. port inventories are down, partly due to slower exports from Ivory Coast, although improved rainfall offers cautious optimism for the next main crop season.
• Ghana is forecasted to produce 650,000 metric tons for the 2025-26 crop year, an 8.3 percent year-over-year increase. However, dissatisfaction among farmers over uncompetitive producer prices could lead to smuggling and instability, potentially impacting support services and future output.
• Nigeria is expecting an 11 percent decline in cocoa production due to adverse weather, falling to 305,000 metric tons. On the demand side, cocoa grindings have dropped in Europe (down 7.2 percent), Asia, and North America (declining by 16.3 and 2.8 percent, respectively), indicating a broader decrease in global demand.
• The International Cocoa Organization predicts a shift from a current global deficit to a surplus in the coming years, driven by expected increases in production. This shift could ease price pressures but will hinge on improving weather in West Africa and resolution of farmer unrest in key producing countries.
• Technical market factors also play a role, with cocoa futures responding to pressures at critical support and resistance levels. Stakeholders are advised to closely monitor weather trends and market sentiment in this volatile environment.

This episode provides a detailed weekly summary of the global cocoa market as of August 17, 2025.

• Ivory Coast, the world's largest cocoa producer, is currently facing unfavorable weather conditions characterized by below-average rainfall and high temperatures. These conditions are jeopardizing pod development ahead of the October main crop harvest. Despite this, the country has seen a 6.6% year-over-year increase in cocoa exports, totaling 1,780,000 metric tons between October and August 10. However, this growth reflects a decrease from a December export surge, and concerns remain about crop quality, with 5% to 6% of the mid-crop yield classified as poor due to delayed rains. The mid-crop yield is estimated at 400,000 metric tons, marking a 9% decline from the previous year.
• In contrast, Ghana forecasts an 8.3% increase in cocoa production for the 2025–2026 period, reaching 650,000 metric tons. The growth is supported by government initiatives such as fertilizer subsidies and pest control programs. Meanwhile, Nigeria expects an 11% decline in cocoa output, down to 305,000 metric tons, due to adverse weather and aging plantations. Nevertheless, demand for Nigerian cocoa is rising, particularly through new trade ties with Belgium, reflecting the country's shift towards agricultural exports.
• Globally, the cocoa market is in flux, with production variances and shifting demand patterns. Cocoa grinding has declined in Europe (7.2%), Asia (16.3%), and North America (2.8%), highlighting demand fluctuations. Despite this, the International Cocoa Organization has reported a record global deficit of 494,000 metric tons for the 2023–2024 season, followed by a forecasted surplus of 142,000 metric tons for 2024–2025, influencing market prices.
• The episode also discusses technological innovations, such as MARS Inc.'s collaboration with Pairwise on CRISPR gene editing. These efforts aim to enhance cocoa crop resilience and productivity in response to challenges like climate change and disease, aligning with broader strategies for agricultural advancement and economic diversification across West Africa.

This episode provides a detailed overview of the global cocoa market for the week of August 10, 2025.

• The Ivory Coast, the largest global cocoa producer, is facing a significant slowdown in production growth, with exports up only 6 percent this year to 1.76 million metric tons, compared to a 35 percent increase last year. Adverse weather conditions, including reduced rainfall and higher temperatures, are impacting both yield and quality ahead of the main crop harvest in October. Mid-crop yields have been revised downward to 400,000 metric tons from an earlier 440,000 metric ton forecast, due to quality rejections affecting up to 6 percent of the crop. Political considerations are also at play, with speculation that the government may raise cocoa prices before upcoming elections to secure farmer support.
• Ghana, the second-largest producer, expects an 8.3 percent production increase for the 2025–26 season, potentially reaching 650,000 metric tons. This could exert downward pressure on global prices. In contrast, Nigeria is projecting an 11 percent decline to 305,000 metric tons, contributing to upward price pressures. Guyana has increased producer prices to support livelihoods and stimulate tourism through infrastructure improvements in cocoa-producing regions.
• Globally, cocoa demand is weakening, with grindings in Europe down 7.2 percent and in Asia down 16.3 percent year on year, marking the lowest second-quarter levels in eight years. Despite this, the International Cocoa Organization has raised its estimate for the current season’s deficit to 494,000 metric tons but forecasts a surplus of 142,000 metric tons for 2024–25, driven by a 7.8 percent production rise to 4.84 million metric tons.
• A major concern in Côte d’Ivoire and Ghana is the increase in cocoa smuggling, fueled by high global prices, price disparities, weak enforcement, and corruption. This is causing substantial public revenue losses and threatening economic stability. These factors are shaping both current and future cocoa market dynamics, influencing everything from African economies to international chocolate pricing and agricultural sustainability efforts.

This week’s episode presents an overview of the global cocoa market as of August 3, 2025.

• Ivory Coast aims to increase its local cocoa processing rate from 42 percent to 50 percent by 2027, targeting 750,000 metric tons in annual grindings. This initiative is supported by infrastructure expansions such as a new grinding facility in Abidjan and the enlargement of the San Pedro Port. However, progress is hindered by slow export growth and deteriorating bean quality. In mid-July, exports grew just 6.8 percent year over year, a steep decline from 35 percent growth seen in December. The European Union’s new deforestation regulations, which require traceability, add further strain on smaller operators, prompting calls for government intervention. Meanwhile, cocoa yield for the mid-crop is estimated to fall 9 percent to 400,000 metric tons due to adverse weather, and the rollout of a digital traceability platform has sparked concerns about its impact on small exporters. Global demand for chocolate is also waning, as reflected by reduced grindings in major regions.
• In Ghana, a projected 8.3 percent increase in cocoa production to 650,000 metric tons is threatened by excessive rainfall, limited sunlight, and heightened risks of fungal diseases such as black pod. These conditions challenge the Ghana Cocoa Board’s production goals despite disease control efforts. Additionally, regional price disparities are driving cocoa smuggling, while quality issues are affecting neighboring producers and contributing to market instability.
• At the global level, the cocoa market faces its largest supply deficit in 60 years, with the International Cocoa Organization reporting a 494,000 metric tons shortfall for the 2023–2024 season. Grindings have declined in key areas, reflecting reduced demand, while high prices driven by supply constraints are dampening chocolate consumption and affecting financial forecasts. Upcoming policy changes, including tariff exemptions, may offer some relief but also introduce new complexities to international trade.
• The cocoa sectors in both Ivory Coast and Ghana are navigating a challenging period marked by environmental, regulatory, and market pressures. Strategic adaptations will be essential for these countries to maintain resilience and competitiveness in a volatile global market.