CropGPT - Coffee

Global Coffee Market Summary: 

• Brazil remains the central supply story. USDA projects 2026/27 production at a record 71.9 million bags, while StoneX forecasts an even higher 77.2 million bags. CONAB has also raised its 2026 estimate to 67.6 million bags, supported by a projected 34.8% increase in Arabica production to 48.91 million bags. Robusta production, however, is expected to decline 6.6% to 19.39 million bags. Exports remain strong, with August shipments reaching 4.155 million bags, up 31% year on year, while Brazil's Trade Ministry reported a 44.6% increase in August coffee exports.
• Weather remains a key variable for Brazil's next crop. Rainfall has generally been supportive of flowering, although heat risks in Espirito Santo and uneven conditions in other regions could affect development. Quality is a more persistent concern, with reduced availability of exchange-grade coffee pushing up premiums. Producers are also facing tighter margins as the coffee-to-fertilizer exchange ratio deteriorates, while warehouse capacity constraints and the growing threat of coffee berry borer add pressure to the supply chain.
• Vietnam continues to support global Robusta availability, with 2025/26 production forecast to rise 6% to a four-year high of 1.76 million tonnes. Exports from January through August increased 13.7% year on year, although export prices have fallen sharply. Favorable rainfall and soil moisture are supporting cherry development as the harvest approaches, leaving Vietnam with relatively low weather risk.
• Other major origins face more significant challenges. Colombia's output has fallen approximately 17% to 12.4 million bags, while an earthquake in key growing regions and disruptions around Buenaventura have added supply concerns. Indonesia currently carries the highest weather risk among major producers, with worsening drought in southern Sumatra threatening flowering and crop development. Ethiopia also faces medium weather risk as low rainfall and high temperatures threaten cherry size, weight, and quality.
• At the global level, the coffee market is moving into a clear surplus, with 2025/26 production reaching a new high and consumption weakening. Global output is projected to increase another 6% in 2026/27, largely because of Brazil, while softer imports point to slower demand. The main bullish counterweight is Arabica availability, with ICE-certified stocks remaining near historical lows. Robusta inventories, in contrast, have increased, reinforcing weaker sentiment in that segment.

Global Coffee Market Summary

• Brazil: The USDA FAS projects a record 2026/27 crop of 71,900,000 bags, up 14%, while StoneX sees 77,200,000 bags, up 23.9%. The harvest was 97% complete by late August. Cecafé reported record August exports of 4,155,000 bags, up 31% (Arabica up 26%, Robusta up 54%), and green coffee exports for 2026/27 are projected at 49,400,000 bags, nearly 30% above previous records. Full warehouses are forcing farmers to sell stored coffee, adding to price pressure. Risks include El Nino disrupting flowering, excessive rain raising waterlogging and disease concerns, and a post-harvest quality problem that has sharply reduced exchange-grade coffee.
• Vietnam: 2025/26 production is forecast up 6% to a four-year high, and January to August exports rose 13.7%. Average export prices fell 20.4%, squeezing margins. Heavy pre-harvest rain could hurt quality, delay harvesting, and encourage fungal disease.
• Colombia: Recent production is down about 17% due to earlier adverse weather, providing a bullish element. A 7.4 magnitude earthquake caused disruptions, but operations have partly resumed and export routes through Buenaventura remain open.
• Indonesia: Sumatra robusta premiums are fluctuating. Below-average rainfall poses a medium risk to the 2027/28 flowering phase and berry maturation.
• Ethiopia: Exceptionally dry conditions in major growing areas pose a medium risk to cherry development, bean size, and quality ahead of the main harvest.
• Global market: The International Coffee Organization reports the first surplus in five years, and the USDA expects 2026/27 production growth to lift global ending stocks. Low ICE-certified Arabica stocks remain the key bullish factor, while robusta stocks are ample. Technically, Arabica has fallen below major moving averages and support levels, and easing demand leaves no clear catalyst for recovery.

Global Coffee Market Summary: September 20, 2026

• Brazil: Dominance persists, with the record 2026/27 harvest set to flood the market. USDA projects output at 71,900,000 bags, up 14% year on year (47,500,000 bags Arabica, 24,400,000 bags Robusta). Green coffee exports are projected at 49,400,000 bags, nearly 30% higher than last year. Warehouse capacity limits are forcing farmers to sell off previously withheld stocks, countering the narrative of judicious sales management, while quality has slipped, with only 10 to 15% of the current crop meeting exchange grade standards, well below historical norms. Weather has largely supported the outlook, though extraordinary rainfall in key regions poses risk at the flowering stage.
• Vietnam: Robusta production is pressuring prices, with the 2025/26 crop projected up 6% to 1,760,000 tons. January to August exports climbed 13.7% year on year, reflecting a supply glut, though export value fell as average prices dropped to levels not seen since June 2024, with physical market activity also subdued. Recent rainfall has improved soil moisture but raises waterlogging risk that could complicate the upcoming harvest.
• Indonesia: A mixed premium picture for Sumatra Robusta across contracts, with severe rainfall deficits compromising flowering initiation, raising risk for the 2027/28 outlook if the dry spell persists.
• Colombia: A bullish counterweight, facing significant supply disruption from a 7.4 magnitude earthquake in major producing regions. Exports have resumed in part with no critical damage to milling facilities, though rolling twelve month production shows a significant downturn.
• Ethiopia: Facing a precarious drought during the crucial cherry development stage, raising concern over near term production potential and requiring close monitoring.

Global Coffee Market Summary: September 13, 2026

• Brazil: Anchoring the bearish Arabica sentiment, with August coffee exports up 44.6% year on year to 206,618 tons, the highest monthly volume in eight months, driving December Arabica prices to a two month low. The 2026/27 harvest is 97% complete (96% for Arabica), slightly behind the five year average (91.9% versus 94.9% a year prior via Cuxipe). USDA FAS expects a record crop of 71,900,000 bags, up 14% year on year (47,500,000 bags Arabica, 24,400,000 bags Robusta), with green exports forecast at 49,400,000 bags, nearly 30% higher. Most warehouses are at full capacity, forcing farmer selling despite price pressure. Weather is mixed, with favorable rains in Minas Gerais aiding flowering but recent heavy rains risking flower abortion and fungal disease, while El Nino may delay September to October flowering rains, threatening the 2026/27 season.
• Colombia: Facing supply challenges after a 7.4 magnitude earthquake in Caldas and Risaralda, though partial export resumption via Buenaventura has been reported with no major damage to processing facilities. The FNC recorded a 6.6% rise in exports (valued at USD 6.5 billion in 2025), though rolling twelve month production fell about 17% to 12,400,000 bags on an earlier harvest contraction.
• Vietnam: A bearish supply picture for the Robusta leader, with January to August exports up 13.7% year on year and full year exports projected to grow 17.5% to 1,580,000 tons, though prices have fallen 11.2% despite the volume increase. Heavy rainfall forecasts in the Central Highlands raise flood risk, though conditions currently show moderated stress. The EU deforestation regulation could offer a premium for compliant shipments, potentially boosting export volumes by 8 to 10%.
• Ethiopia: High risk to cherry development amid severe drought, with Oromia and Southern Nations regions seeing significantly below average rainfall, stressing bean filling.
• Indonesia: Drought is raising concerns for the 2027/28 outlook as flowering begins under adverse conditions, threatening uniform and productive flowering.

Global Coffee Market Summary

• The global coffee market is facing a widening divergence between tightening Arabica supply and expanding Robusta availability. In Colombia, earthquake damage and logistics disruptions are increasing supply chain risks, while Brazil's slower harvest is putting further pressure on Arabica inventories. Meanwhile, strong Vietnamese exports are adding to Robusta supply and weighing on prices.
• In Colombia, a recent 7.4 magnitude earthquake has disrupted coffee production in key regions including Caldas and Risaralda. Infrastructure damage and logistics problems, including disruptions at the port of Buenaventura, are raising concerns over the movement of coffee despite local processing facilities remaining largely operational. With Arabica stocks already tightening, these disruptions could amplify supply constraints.
• Brazil's harvest is also progressing more slowly than historical averages, with only 64% completed by mid-July. The slower pace is contributing to tighter ICE Arabica inventories and could increase short-term price volatility. However, the longer-term production outlook remains positive, with output projected to increase 14% year on year to a record 71.9 million bags, assuming favorable weather conditions.
• Vietnam is moving in the opposite direction, with exports rising 21.1% from January through July compared with the same period last year. Strong export activity is increasing global Robusta availability and creating downward pressure on prices. Production is also expected to rise by around 6% year on year in the 2025-26 season.

Global Coffee Market Summary

• Vietnam recorded a sharp increase in domestic coffee prices as tightening supplies and reduced trading activity pushed bean prices to seasonal highs. Limited availability of Indonesian coffee has further constrained regional supply, supporting robusta prices despite relatively subdued demand.
• In Brazil, unflavored instant coffee was exempted from a proposed 25 percent United States import tariff, preserving an estimated US$2 billion to US$2.5 billion in annual export revenue. At the same time, untimely rainfall has slowed harvesting progress and increased operating costs by 12 to 16 percent. Although Brazil is still forecast to produce a record 71.9 million bags during the 2026-27 season, harvest progress remains behind the five-year average, creating a disconnect between expected production and the coffee currently reaching the market.
• Indonesia is pursuing major reforms to expand the value of its coffee exports by improving farm productivity, upgrading marketing systems, and distributing 17 million high-yield coffee seedlings. The strategy aims to strengthen farmer returns, increase export value, and enhance the country's influence within the global coffee trade.
• The European Union has expanded its deforestation regulations to include soluble coffee, introducing stricter traceability requirements across supply chains. The changes are expected to have a significant impact on robusta exporters, particularly Vietnam and Brazil, as exporters adapt to new compliance standards.

 Global Coffee Market Summary

• Brazil's Arabica harvest remains significantly behind its normal pace after persistent rainfall disrupted harvesting across major producing regions, including Minas Gerais, Sao Paulo, and Espirito Santo. Harvest progress has reached only 52% as of July 2026, raising concerns about supply availability and bean quality. Reports of premature cherry drop and declining ICE certified Arabica inventories have strengthened expectations of tighter near term supplies, supporting higher futures prices. At the same time, improving coffee to fertilizer exchange ratios may encourage producers to hold back inventories, while the potential return of El Nino continues to create uncertainty for future production.
• The episode also explores developments in Vietnam, where Robusta coffee exports increased during the first half of 2026 despite weaker global prices. Although export volumes have remained strong, lower international prices have reduced export revenues. Domestic coffee prices, however, remain elevated because of limited local inventories, creating margin pressure and complicating the country's efforts to expand higher value coffee products such as roasted and instant coffee.
• The discussion concludes by highlighting the contrasting forces currently shaping the global coffee market. Strong long term production forecasts, including expectations for a record Brazilian crop in 2026/27, are being offset by immediate supply constraints, quality concerns, and weather related risks. These factors continue to create a market environment where near term tightness coexists with more optimistic long term supply expectations.

 Global Coffee Market Summary

• Brazil experienced significant harvest delays as excessive rainfall in Minas Gerais disrupted coffee collection, tightening physical supplies and supporting higher prices. These short term constraints contrast with forecasts for a record 2026/27 crop of approximately 71.9 million bags. The market remains cautious as ICE certified Arabica inventories have fallen to multi-year lows, while concerns over potential El Niño impacts on flowering and next season's production continue to add uncertainty.
• Ethiopia delivered another strong performance, with coffee export revenues exceeding $3 billion, supported by a projected 4.7 percent increase in production and elevated global Arabica prices. The country's emphasis on quality, combined with government efforts to align national coffee standards with international benchmarks, has reinforced its competitiveness and positioned the sector for continued growth.
• Vietnam continued to strengthen its role as the world's leading Robusta producer. Coffee exports increased 7.9 percent during the January to May 2026 period, supported by expanding production that is expected to reach new highs. The country's growing supply stands in contrast to tightening Arabica availability, reinforcing Vietnam's importance in meeting global coffee demand.
• Overall, the episode highlights how regional differences are driving the coffee market. Brazil is managing weather-related supply disruptions despite strong production prospects, Ethiopia is benefiting from premium quality and supportive policy measures, and Vietnam continues to expand its dominance in the Robusta segment. Together, these developments illustrate the complex balance between short term market pressures and long term supply growth across the global coffee industry.

Global Coffee Market Summary

• In Brazil, heavy rainfall across key southern growing regions disrupted the Arabica harvest and raised concerns about bean quality during the drying process. More than 50 millimeters of rain hindered field operations, limiting near-term export availability at a time of strong international demand. These supply constraints helped drive Arabica futures to a six week high, while ICE certified Arabica inventories fell to their lowest level in more than two years, adding further pressure to the global supply chain.
• The episode also explores the potential impact of El Nino, which could delay seasonal rains needed for flowering of Brazil's 2026-27 Arabica crop, creating additional uncertainty for next year's production. At the same time, longer-term supply expectations remain more bearish. The USDA projects Brazil's 2026-27 coffee crop at a record 71.9 million bags, prompting Rabobank to raise its global Arabica surplus forecast despite the current weather-related disruptions.
• In contrast, Vietnam's Robusta market continues to benefit from strong production and export growth. Exports increased 7.9% year over year during the first five months of 2026, and production is expected to reach a four year high. Combined with lower shipping costs following the reopening of the Strait of Hormuz, abundant Vietnamese supplies are keeping global Robusta prices under pressure, despite historically low ICE Robusta inventories.
• Overall, the episode highlights a coffee market driven by two distinct narratives: tightening Arabica supplies and weather risks in Brazil, alongside abundant Robusta production in Vietnam. The balance between these opposing fundamentals, together with weather developments and global trade conditions, will remain the key drivers of coffee prices and market availability in the months ahead.

Global coffee market summary

• Brazil remains the dominant force shaping global coffee markets, with production forecasts for the 2026/27 season reaching as high as 71.9 million bags according to the USDA, while private estimates suggest even larger harvests. Strong output, combined with a weaker Brazilian real, is encouraging exports and contributing to expectations of a global coffee surplus of around 10 million bags. However, the potential development of El Niño during the critical flowering period later in the year could threaten the 2027/28 Arabica crop. At the same time, relatively low ICE Arabica inventories continue to provide an underlying layer of market uncertainty.
• In Vietnam, coffee exports increased by 7.9% between January and May 2026, reaching 922,000 metric tons. Production is projected to rise by 6% to a four-year high of 1.76 million metric tons, supported by favorable growing conditions, improved farming practices, and continued investment in productivity. As the world's leading Robusta supplier, Vietnam's expanding output is expected to reinforce pressure on global coffee prices.
• Indonesia faces a more challenging outlook. Coffee production is forecast to decline by 8% in the 2026/27 season to 11.38 million bags after excessive rainfall disrupted flowering and fruit development across key growing regions. Green coffee exports are expected to fall by 11% to 7 million bags, reducing the country's contribution to global supply and partially offsetting growing production elsewhere.
• Colombia is projected to increase coffee production by 7% to 13.4 million bags in 2026/27, strengthening global Arabica availability. Higher output, combined with steady domestic consumption, positions the country as an important stabilizing force within the premium coffee segment.