CropGPT - Coffee

Global Coffee Market Summary

• Brazil is entering a record production season for 2026/27, with the USDA Foreign Agricultural Service projecting output at 71.9 million 60-kilogram bags, a 14.1% increase driven by favorable weather and the positive phase of the biennial cycle. Arabica output is up 25% to 47,500,000 bags, while robusta is marginally lower at 24,400,000 bags, a 2.4% decline. Total exports are projected to rise 29.6% to 49,070,000 bags. Despite the volume growth, farm gate prices have deteriorated sharply, with Arabica down 28% and robusta down 46% year on year as of April 2026, compressing producer incomes. The National Coffee Economy Defense Fund has allocated BRL 7,370,000,000 to support crop management and marketing across the sector.
• Vietnam recorded export growth of 15.8% year on year for January to April 2026, reaching 810,000 metric tons, continuing momentum from a 17.5% export increase in 2025. Production for 2025/26 is forecast at 1,760,000 metric tons (29,400,000 bags), a 6% increase and a four-year high, reinforcing Vietnam's central role in global robusta supply.
• Indonesia is facing an 8% production decline for 2026/27 to 11,380,000 bags, with robusta accounting for 10,000,000 bags. Excessive rainfall in 2025 disrupted flowering and fruit set in Southern Sumatra. Green coffee exports are expected to fall 11% to 7,000,000 bags, with infrastructure damage inflating domestic transport costs and constraining export flows.
• Colombia is projecting a 7% production increase for 2026/27 to 13,400,000 bags, providing a partial counterweight to supply volatility elsewhere.
• At the global level, Stonex is forecasting a surplus of 10,000,000 bags for 2026, the largest in six years, driven primarily by Brazil's record output and Vietnam's strong performance. Near-term risks include El Nino impacts on subsequent crop cycles, logistical bottlenecks in key exporting countries, currency volatility, and elevated shipping costs linked to Strait of Hormuz disruptions.

Global Coffee Market Summary

• Vietnam's Central Highlands saw domestic coffee prices ease by VND 800 per kilogram, with provincial prices ranging from VND 87,200 per kilogram in Lam Dong to VND 87,800 per kilogram in Dak Nong. The narrowing spread across provinces alongside the overall price decline points to softening farm-gate conditions and compressed margins for growers.
• Brazil is projecting a record 2026 harvest of 66.7 million 60-kilogram bags, up 18% year on year, according to CONAB. This would represent approximately 37% of global coffee supply. Arabica is the primary driver, with output forecast at 45.8 million bags, supported by a favorable biennial cycle and expanded productive area. Logistical constraints at the Port of Santos remain a key risk to export execution given the volume involved.
• Futures markets weakened across both major contracts during the period. London Robusta for July 2026 declined 1.34% to $3,772 per ton, while New York Arabica for July fell 1.51% to 269.85 cents per pound. The moves reflect broader supply-side pressure stemming from Brazil's anticipated volume and global market uncertainty.
• The USDA projects a modest increase in both global production and consumption for the period. Brazil's dual-varietal dominance across Arabica and Robusta positions it as the central variable in global supply management, with port throughput capacity at Santos a critical factor in whether projected export volumes can be realized efficiently.

Global Coffee Market Summary

• Vietnam maintains its position as a dominant robusta supplier despite significant domestic price pressure. Central Highlands prices have declined 31% compared to 2025, ranging between 85,500 and 86,100 dong per kilogram, driven by falling global benchmarks and reduced farmer selling activity as some growers withhold supplies in response to lower rates. Despite domestic pricing headwinds, Vietnam's robust export performance, marked by a 15.8% increase from January to April 2026, reinforces its role as a leading global supplier. Robusta certified stocks suggest a tighter inventory landscape, and Vietnam's significant influence on global robusta dynamics is expected to persist despite current bearish market pressures. Future price movements will depend heavily on global trends and local supply conditions.
• Indonesia's coffee market presents a mixed outlook as it approaches harvest season. June-delivered Sumatra Robusta commands a premium due to tighter local supplies, and crop prospects appear promising. However, excessive rainfall has projected an 8% decline in 2026-2027 green coffee output, with robusta yields particularly impacted and flood damage complicating the arabica outlook. This production contraction could tighten global robusta availability and influence both local and international coffee markets. The forthcoming harvest will be pivotal in determining production strength and market dynamics.
• Brazil's record harvest expansion is creating downward price pressure amid global surplus concerns. Rising arabica and conilon outputs are positioned to generate a potentially record harvest, but bearish sentiment persists due to surplus expectations. Export flows face potential delays and bottlenecks at the Port of Santos that could disrupt shipment volumes despite increased output. These logistical challenges may pressure local prices while simultaneously providing support amid global surplus fears. Brazil's ability to manage both production volume and export infrastructure will be critical in shaping global supply patterns and pricing dynamics.

Global Coffee Market Summary

• Vietnam's coffee production is poised to significantly influence the global coffee market, with projections for the 2025-26 cycle anticipating a robust 30,800,000 bags, chiefly composed of Robusta beans. This estimate accounts for approximately 17.2% of global production, underscoring Vietnam's critical role in the coffee industry. The expected increase to 30,800,000 bags denotes a 2,300,000 bag surge, paving the way for a rise in exports to 24,600,000 bags and reinforcing Vietnam's standing as a leading global supplier. However, the sector faces challenges due to severe hydrological deficits impacting early-stage cherry retention, thereby threatening yield objectives. Additionally, producers are withholding stock due to low domestic farm gate prices, likely affecting short-term supply in international markets.
• El Salvador's 2026-27 market cycle forecasts a contraction in green coffee production by 7.5% to 542,000 bags, attributed mainly to long-standing structural challenges rather than immediate market forces. Export volumes, however, are projected to increase slightly to 543,000 bags, indicating a strategic release from stored reserves in response to firm global prices. Despite efforts and financial support to revitalize the sector, issues such as aging plantations and limited access to financing persist. While these internal challenges pose significant risks for El Salvador, their impact on global coffee trade remains minimal given the country's modest production footprint.
• Brazil's outlook remains strong, with the 2026-27 harvest estimated between 75.3 and 75.9 million bags propelled by favorable conditions and robust Arabica and Robusta outputs. This substantial volume cements Brazil's market dominance, although logistical bottlenecks at major ports and rising mechanized harvesting costs present notable challenges. Issues related to forced labor and supply chain transparency pose reputational risks, potentially affecting trade relations amid increased scrutiny over ethical sourcing practices.
• Guatemala's coffee production for the 2026-27 cycle is projected to slightly increase to 3,260,000 bags, supported by expanded harvest areas and ongoing plantation renovations. Arabica coffee remains predominant, representing 96% of production. Despite growth, Guatemala contends with rising input costs and pest challenges that could impact yields. The country maintains a niche yet important presence in a market heavily influenced by larger producers, supplying strictly hard bean arabica.

Global Coffee Market Summary

• Vietnam has recorded a 15.8% year-on-year rise in coffee exports from January to April 2026, reaching 810,000 metric tons. Production for 2025/26 is forecast to grow 6%, marking a four-year peak, with full-year export projections around 24,600,000 bags. Domestic prices in the Central Highlands rose by VND 1,000 to VND 100,100 per kilogram, tracking upward movements on the London Robusta Exchange. Despite its dominant position in Robusta volumes, Vietnam continues to face a quality and value gap relative to international benchmarks.
• Brazil's 2026/27 crop is forecast at 75,300,000 to 75,900,000 bags, a potential record. The incoming harvest is expected to push the global coffee surplus from 1,800,000 bags in 2025 to approximately 10,000,000 bags in 2026, a substantial shift in the supply balance. A stronger Brazilian real may provide some short-term support to internal prices and influence export timing strategies, but the broader directional pressure from expanded supply is clearly bearish for global benchmarks.
• In Ivory Coast, field trials of six new Robusta varieties, developed through collaboration between the Nestle Institute of Agricultural Sciences and CNRA, have demonstrated yield improvements of up to 86% alongside gains in drought resistance and bean quality. These results remain at the trial stage and have not yet influenced commercial Robusta supply chains.
• Colombia posted a 26% decline in washed Arabica production during the first seven months of the 2025/26 season, tightening global Arabica availability and supporting price underpinning for that segment. The shortfall is amplifying concerns about near-term supply adequacy, particularly given simultaneous logistical pressures arising from geopolitical tensions.
• Ethiopia's coffee exporters are under margin pressure as global Arabica prices decline against a backdrop of elevated local procurement costs. The government's export revenue targets are increasingly difficult to meet under current conditions, with EU deforestation compliance requirements adding a further cost layer to the sector.

Global Coffee Market Weekly Summary 

• Brazil's coffee sector is working with the Ministry of Labor and Employment to strengthen legal and commercial security for exporters, in response to concerns among US importers over labor violations across producing regions. These concerns have been amplified by US Customs and Border Protection withhold release orders and ongoing Section 301 investigations. Labor inspections indicate that human rights violations occur in approximately 1% of cases, suggesting isolated rather than systemic issues. The Coffee Exporters Council is proactively providing compliance documentation to mitigate trade friction in both US and EU markets. Looking ahead, the EU's planned ban on products made with forced labor, effective December 2027, places additional pressure on Brazilian exporters to demonstrate and document ethical supply chain practices.
• Vietnam recorded a 14% increase in coffee exports in 2026, reinforcing its position as a dominant global supplier. Domestic challenges persist, however, including inventory pressures and drought conditions that threaten future output. Vietnam's robusta segment is under heightened international scrutiny, shaped by Brazil's market dynamics and geopolitical disruptions including the Strait of Hormuz closure, which is contributing to short term volatility in coffee futures.
• Ethiopia and other East African producers are facing growing pressure under the Coffee Canopy Partnership, which uses satellite imagery to track deforestation linked to coffee cultivation. The EU's deforestation regulations pose a material risk of export restrictions for countries unable to demonstrate sustainable land use practices, compelling producers to improve transparency and adjust farming methods to preserve access to European markets.

Global Coffee Market Weekly Summary 

• Brazil is on course for a record coffee harvest in 2026/27, with Marex Group and Stonex projecting output of between 75,000,000 and 75,900,000 bags, representing approximately 15.5% year-on-year growth. CONAB, Brazil's national crop agency, offers a more conservative estimate of 66,200,000 bags but still characterizes it as a record season. The growth is driven primarily by Arabica production, projected to increase by 23.2%. Despite this strong production outlook, export performance has weakened notably, with volumes falling 27% in February and 31% in March year on year, a decline attributed largely to currency appreciation dampening seller incentives.
• Vietnam's robusta sector continues to expand, with first quarter 2026 exports rising 14% year on year to 585,000 metric tons. The 2025/26 production forecast stands at a four-year high of 1,760,000 metric tons (approximately 30,800,000 bags). This sustained output growth is exerting consistent downward pressure on global robusta prices. Logistical disruptions stemming from the Strait of Hormuz are inflating freight and insurance costs, adding an operational layer of complexity to Vietnam's export operations.
• Arabica coffee futures are exhibiting a persistent bearish trend, with the May 2026 contract falling below key moving averages. Critical support is positioned near 288.65 cents per pound, with further declines potentially targeting a range of 265 to 268 cents. Rising Arabica inventory levels are eroding scarcity premiums and reinforcing a cautiously bearish medium-term pricing structure. Globally, Rabobank estimates total coffee production for 2026/27 at approximately 180,000,000 bags, an increase from prior years. Global exports show a modest downturn, and market dynamics continue to be shaped by the interplay of strong supply forecasts, inventory accumulation, and logistical cost pressures. Currency fluctuations and producer selling behavior in Brazil remain key variables for short-term price volatility.

Global Coffee Market Weekly Summary

• The global coffee market is contending with an emerging oversupply dynamic, as record production forecasts from Brazil and continued export strength from Vietnam push inventory levels higher against a backdrop of only gradually rising demand.
• Brazil's 2026/27 season production forecast has reached 75,900,000 bags, a 15.5% year-on-year increase, with Arabica output alone projected to rise 23.2%. Despite this exceptional production outlook, Brazilian export volumes in February declined 27% year-on-year to 2,300,000 bags, a result of a stronger Brazilian real and reduced shipment activity. This points to a temporary tightening in Brazilian coffee availability on international markets rather than any structural supply constraint. Domestically, Brazilian producers are increasingly adopting precision irrigation techniques to manage irregular climatic conditions during critical fruiting stages, a long-term yield stabilization strategy rather than a near-term output accelerator.
• Vietnam continues to post strong results in Robusta production and trade. Coffee exports grew 17.5% year-on-year in 2025 to 1,580,000 metric tons, with further growth anticipated in the 2025/26 season. Price volatility in the Central Highlands has been partially offset by recent recoveries. Beyond volume, Vietnam is actively pursuing quality differentiation through initiatives aimed at establishing distinct standards for Vietnamese Robusta, signaling a strategic shift toward value-focused positioning in global markets.
• At the global level, the combination of Brazilian and Vietnamese supply growth is contributing to a meaningful oversupply condition. ICE futures pricing for Arabica reflects ongoing fluctuations driven by currency movements and logistical disruptions, including those stemming from the Strait of Hormuz closure, which are providing intermittent and temporary price support. However, these factors are set against record global production and inventory levels, sustaining a broadly bearish market outlook. Both leading producers are increasingly directing investment toward advanced agricultural technology and quality enhancement, indicating a wider industry transition from volume-driven growth toward more sustainable, value-oriented strategies.

This episode examines a global coffee market.

• Vietnam is a central focus, where domestic coffee prices in the Central Highlands have risen by 400 to 500 dong per kilogram, lifting farm gate prices to roughly 91,500 to 92,700 dong per kilogram. The increase reflects stronger buying interest and expectations of tighter nearby supply as inventories from the previous harvest continue to decline. Firm robusta futures in London are reinforcing this strength, suggesting that supply concerns in the physical market remain a key source of support.
• The episode also highlights strong export momentum. Coffee exports in January and February 2026 were up 14 percent year over year, supported by solid robusta production. That resilience stands in contrast to arabica futures in New York, which have weakened as the market reacts to more comfortable supply expectations. The result is a market where robusta remains relatively firm while arabica is under more pressure.
• Brazil is presented as a major driver of the arabica outlook. Although softer arabica prices could weigh on near-term shipment revenue, Brazil’s 2026 coffee crop is projected to reach record levels, with gains in both arabica and conilon production. The report notes that reduced green coffee exports and shifting tariff conditions for soluble coffee exports to the United States could affect short-term trade dynamics, but overall production and export capacity still point to a strong underlying performance. Brazil’s soluble coffee sector is also showing resilience through higher February exports and stronger domestic consumption.
• Overall, the episode presents a coffee market defined by imbalance between its two major varieties. Robusta is benefiting from tight supplies and sustained demand, especially in Vietnam and other key producers, while arabica is contending with heavier production forecasts and growing stock levels, particularly in Brazil.