CropGPT - Oils

This episode explores current trends and challenges in the global sunflower market.

• Russia continues to face significant difficulties, particularly in the Krasnodar Territory and Southern Federal District, where droughts have sharply reduced sunflower sales. August volumes dropped to just 22,600 tons, a 1.8-fold year-over-year decrease. Only 14% of Russia's sunflower areas have been harvested, with yields averaging a below-normal 1.23 tons per hectare.
• In Ukraine, ongoing rainfall in the northern and western zones has delayed harvesting operations, although this has helped maintain elevated market prices between 26,500 and 27,500 Ukrainian hryvnias per ton. Over 570,000 hectares have been harvested so far, with early yields surpassing last year's. However, the USDA has lowered Ukraine's total production forecast for the 2025–2026 marketing year to 12.7 million tons, down from a previous estimate of 13.5 million tons.
• Kazakhstan’s sunflower oil market is seeing declining prices, driven by local climatic conditions and global price trends. These decreases are beginning to influence sunflower seed valuations as well. Meanwhile, Uzbekistan has emerged as the leading exporter of sunflower oil to Afghanistan in 2025, outpacing both Russia and Kazakhstan. This marks a strategic gain for Uzbekistan in the regional export landscape.
• Each country is navigating a distinct set of challenges and market pressures, shaped by weather patterns, production issues, and trade developments. These factors continue to define the outlook and stability of the global sunflower sector.

This episode covers the latest movements in the global palm oil market.

• Malaysia has raised its crude palm oil reference price for October to RM4,268.68 per metric ton, up from September’s RM4,053.43. Despite this increase, the export duty remains capped at 10%, consistent with the country's tiered tax framework. Notably, the European Union has formally recognized Malaysia’s Sustainable Palm Oil Certification, aligning it with new deforestation regulations and enhancing Malaysia’s credibility in environmentally sensitive markets.
• While Malaysia's exports are growing, production increases have led to stockpiles reaching a 20-month high of 2.2 million tons by August. In India, palm oil imports surged by 15.76% in August to 990,428 metric tons, the highest in over a year, driven by competitive pricing and pre-festival demand. This increase coincided with a 25.27% drop in soybean oil imports and a 28.53% rise in sunflower oil imports, reflecting India's strategy to diversify edible oil sources.
• The European Union's upcoming deforestation regulations, effective December, are set to enforce stricter legal and sustainability criteria for palm oil imports. The EU’s acknowledgment of Malaysia’s certification positions the country to benefit from the expected annual market growth of nearly 5% through early 2030.
• Globally, palm oil trade continues to be influenced by currency trends, competitive vegetable oil markets, and rising environmental scrutiny. Malaysia’s proactive certification and pricing adjustments underscore its efforts to maintain market share while meeting increasing demands for sustainable production.

This episode outlines key government actions and regional shifts influencing the global canola and rapeseed markets.

• Canada is enhancing its support for the biofuels and canola sectors through a C$370 million investment aimed at countering competitive pressure from the United States. The initiative includes regulatory easing and allocates C$75 million to Agriculture Canada's agri-marketing program to boost domestic and international canola use. Despite this, industry concerns persist about the effectiveness of domestic demand stimulation and the impact of foreign tariffs on exporters and processors.
• In Russia, regions such as Adigeia and Krasnoyarsk are expanding winter rapeseed and canola sowing areas as part of broader agricultural strategies. Adigeia plans to increase its sowing area by 50 percent, while Krasnoyarsk has enlarged its area by 6.6 percent and exported 100,000 tons of canola oil. Additionally, the region has shipped over 56,000 tons of rapeseed to Belarus, supported by efficient local processing infrastructure. Stavropol is also contributing by harvesting and preparing 19,000 hectares for the next rapeseed cycle, reflecting an integrated, forward-looking production approach.
• Argentina has strengthened its presence in the European Union's sunflower meal market, now supplying 49 percent of imports. This shift reflects Argentina’s ability to capitalize on Ukraine's declining market share and align with evolving EU import dynamics.

This episode explores key trends affecting the global sunflower oil market.

• In Ukraine, sunflower oil prices have fallen to $1,200 per ton at CPT port as of September 12, reflecting a $15 drop. This decline is closely linked to weakening soybean oil prices amid geopolitical tensions between the United States and China. Additionally, rising palm oil inventories in Malaysia have compounded downward price pressure. As Ukraine’s sunflower harvest progresses—with over 200,000 tons already collected—yield variability and anticipated supply increases from the northern and western regions are likely to further influence prices. Simultaneously, demand for high oleic sunflower varieties is rising, driven by reduced olive oil output in Mediterranean nations.
• In Russia, southern regions are reporting a sharp decline in yields due to heat and drought, reaching a 13-year low of 1.17 tons per hectare—a 35.4 percent drop from the previous year. However, overall harvest projections remain optimistic, with a forecast of 18.5 million tons, a 9.5 percent increase year-on-year, supported by stronger performance in regions like the Volga. Notably, sunflower exports from Russia have risen by 27 percent in the first eight months of the year, primarily to EAEU countries. Yet, sunflower oil exports have declined by 34 percent, indicating a growing divergence between raw material and processed oil markets.
• Globally, edible oil markets are exhibiting strong interconnectivity. Soybean oil price movements, Malaysian palm oil stock levels, and climatic impacts on Mediterranean olive oil supplies are all shaping sunflower oil pricing. Upcoming industry events, such as the Bayntriet International Conference in Kyiv, are expected to shed further light on the evolving landscape.

This episode examines recent developments in the global palm oil market.

• In Malaysia, palm oil futures experienced modest gains, driven by concerns over supply shortages and supported by rising Chicago soy oil prices. The November delivery price rose by RM40 to RM4,453 per metric ton. Despite a year-over-year production drop of 1.87 percent for July and August, inventories reached a 20-month high in late August due to increased production and slightly lower exports.
• Export performance remained weak, with shipments declining by 1.2 to 8.4 percent in early September compared to the previous month. Competitive pressure from other vegetable oils, particularly soybean and sunflower oils, and the premium pricing of crude palm oil, are dampening Malaysia's export competitiveness in key markets such as the European Union and India. While domestic production rose slightly by 2.3 percent, declining export volumes offset gains, adding to inventory levels. Increased domestic consumption—driven by biodiesel and oleochemical demand—has helped temper the surplus.
• Looking ahead, Malaysia is expected to sustain production growth, though inventory build-up could weigh on futures pricing. Notably, the European Union's recognition of Malaysian sustainable palm oil standards under deforestation regulations represents a positive step for maintaining market access and improving the country's sustainability profile.
• In Ghana, palm oil consumption (250,000 metric tons annually) significantly exceeds domestic production (about 50,000 metric tons), resulting in heavy import reliance. The Ghana Tree Crops Diversification Project is working to address this gap through seedling quality improvement, expanded cultivation, and better local market integration. However, adoption of modern technologies by local millers remains slow, hindering productivity and efficiency. Government incentives and technological upgrades are seen as essential to strengthening domestic capacity and reducing import dependency.

This episode delivers a focused overview of the global sunflower market for the week of September 7, 2025.

• Romania has experienced a sharp increase in sunflower prices, reaching USD 5.85 per ton, up by $30 from last week and $103 year over year. This spike is driven by a 20 percent reduction in yield forecasts compared to the five-year average. Drought conditions have significantly impacted usable moisture levels, particularly in southern and western regions, prompting processors to accelerate operations. Oil content varies by region, with southern areas reporting suboptimal levels of 40 to 42 percent, while northern areas show potential for higher oil content.
• Globally, sunflower oil production is projected to decline by approximately 2.3 million tons in the 2024–25 season, according to Oil World. Exports have dropped by 800,000 tons from April to June compared to the previous year, with further reductions expected. Although this is partially offset by unexpected shipments from Ukraine and Argentina, overall consumption is stagnant, with only a slight projected increase to 22.5 million tons, down from 23.8 million last year.
• In Russia, early sunflower harvesting has begun in the Saratov region due to favorable weather. Initial results show 5,600 tons harvested across 5,200 hectares, with an average yield of 10.8 centimeters per hectare. Ukraine, however, faces severe export challenges, with August volumes plunging to just 150,000 tons, a three-year low. The decline is tied to constrained domestic supply, reduced processing capacity, and buyer hesitation due to expected price drops.
• The European Union has also seen a production decline, particularly in Bulgaria and Romania, where heat has reduced yields. The regional shortfall is estimated at 1.1 million tons, bringing total EU output to 8.3 million tons. Although this could constrain supply, anticipated increases in rapeseed production may help offset some of the impact. As a result, sunflower oil prices in Northern European ports have risen, reflecting reduced availability.

This episode highlights the latest trends and policy developments in the global palm oil market as of September 7, 2025.

• Malaysia is intensifying efforts to achieve a low-risk classification under the European Union's deforestation regulation through its Malaysian Sustainable Palm Oil (MSPO) certification. This national initiative, mandatory since 2020, ensures traceability from plantations to refineries and underscores Malaysia’s commitment to sustainable, deforestation-free practices. Despite currently being classified as a standard-risk country by the EU, the nation’s traceability systems and forest governance have received positive recognition from European officials.
• However, Malaysia faces growing challenges from the spread of Ganoderma, a fungal disease impacting palm oil yields. This issue is especially pronounced in second-generation plantations and now affects approximately 13.7 percent of plantation areas. The zero-burning policy, which limits the removal of diseased biomass, has unintentionally facilitated the disease’s spread, particularly harming smallholders with limited resources to manage the infection effectively.
• Indonesia, meanwhile, has recorded a substantial rise in palm oil export revenue, reaching $14 billion from January to July 2025, a 32.9 percent increase year over year. This growth has contributed to a continued trade surplus over 63 consecutive months. Indonesia is not considered high risk under the EU regulation and has taken proactive steps to address trade challenges, including advancing biodiesel production. A favorable World Trade Organization panel ruling may lead to reduced tariffs on biodiesel exports. Both Malaysia and Indonesia are aligning with global sustainability standards through their national certification systems.

This episode offers a comprehensive snapshot of the global canola and rapeseed market as of September 7, 2025.

• In Ukraine, winter rapeseed sowing is underway, with 377,000 hectares planted by September 1, accounting for 33.8 percent of the national target. Although this is below the 446,200 hectares sown by the same date last year, regions like Venezia and Turnipil are leading the effort. The country is also shifting focus toward winter wheat and barley, with plans to significantly expand barley acreage. Meanwhile, a new 10 percent export duty on rapeseed and soybeans, effective October 1, has been introduced to promote domestic processing. However, this policy has drawn criticism over potential negative impacts on export competitiveness and grower incentives.
• Canada’s canola market is experiencing volatility driven by ongoing trade tensions. A steep 75.8 percent anti-dumping tariff imposed by China has disrupted exports and led to the buildup of canola meal stockpiles. In response, Canada has reinstated duty-free trade with the United States to stabilize prices. Despite these challenges, Canada’s 2025–26 production outlook is strong, with forecasts of 20.1 million tons, supported by favorable weather and improved soil moisture.
• Australia's canola export volumes have fallen sharply as of June 2025 due to stock depletion, though a recent 50,000-ton agreement with China's COFCO signals possible market re-entry. Production for the upcoming season is forecast at 5.97 million tons, a modest decrease. This period is pivotal as the country balances tightening stocks and the potential for renewed Chinese demand.
• In the European Union, rapeseed imports reached 8.3 million tons for the current marketing year, largely sourced from Australia, Ukraine, and Canada. However, imports are projected to fall to 6.1 million tons in the upcoming season due to geopolitical factors and supply adjustments. This decline is expected to increase price pressures across the region.
• Overall, the global canola and rapeseed market continues to be shaped by a complex mix of trade policies, climate variability, and geopolitical tensions, each influencing price structures, production strategies, and international trade flows.