This episode delivers a focused overview of the global sunflower market for the week of September 7, 2025.

• Romania has experienced a sharp increase in sunflower prices, reaching USD 5.85 per ton, up by $30 from last week and $103 year over year. This spike is driven by a 20 percent reduction in yield forecasts compared to the five-year average. Drought conditions have significantly impacted usable moisture levels, particularly in southern and western regions, prompting processors to accelerate operations. Oil content varies by region, with southern areas reporting suboptimal levels of 40 to 42 percent, while northern areas show potential for higher oil content.
• Globally, sunflower oil production is projected to decline by approximately 2.3 million tons in the 2024–25 season, according to Oil World. Exports have dropped by 800,000 tons from April to June compared to the previous year, with further reductions expected. Although this is partially offset by unexpected shipments from Ukraine and Argentina, overall consumption is stagnant, with only a slight projected increase to 22.5 million tons, down from 23.8 million last year.
• In Russia, early sunflower harvesting has begun in the Saratov region due to favorable weather. Initial results show 5,600 tons harvested across 5,200 hectares, with an average yield of 10.8 centimeters per hectare. Ukraine, however, faces severe export challenges, with August volumes plunging to just 150,000 tons, a three-year low. The decline is tied to constrained domestic supply, reduced processing capacity, and buyer hesitation due to expected price drops.
• The European Union has also seen a production decline, particularly in Bulgaria and Romania, where heat has reduced yields. The regional shortfall is estimated at 1.1 million tons, bringing total EU output to 8.3 million tons. Although this could constrain supply, anticipated increases in rapeseed production may help offset some of the impact. As a result, sunflower oil prices in Northern European ports have risen, reflecting reduced availability.

This episode highlights the latest trends and policy developments in the global palm oil market as of September 7, 2025.

• Malaysia is intensifying efforts to achieve a low-risk classification under the European Union's deforestation regulation through its Malaysian Sustainable Palm Oil (MSPO) certification. This national initiative, mandatory since 2020, ensures traceability from plantations to refineries and underscores Malaysia’s commitment to sustainable, deforestation-free practices. Despite currently being classified as a standard-risk country by the EU, the nation’s traceability systems and forest governance have received positive recognition from European officials.
• However, Malaysia faces growing challenges from the spread of Ganoderma, a fungal disease impacting palm oil yields. This issue is especially pronounced in second-generation plantations and now affects approximately 13.7 percent of plantation areas. The zero-burning policy, which limits the removal of diseased biomass, has unintentionally facilitated the disease’s spread, particularly harming smallholders with limited resources to manage the infection effectively.
• Indonesia, meanwhile, has recorded a substantial rise in palm oil export revenue, reaching $14 billion from January to July 2025, a 32.9 percent increase year over year. This growth has contributed to a continued trade surplus over 63 consecutive months. Indonesia is not considered high risk under the EU regulation and has taken proactive steps to address trade challenges, including advancing biodiesel production. A favorable World Trade Organization panel ruling may lead to reduced tariffs on biodiesel exports. Both Malaysia and Indonesia are aligning with global sustainability standards through their national certification systems.

This episode offers a comprehensive snapshot of the global canola and rapeseed market as of September 7, 2025.

• In Ukraine, winter rapeseed sowing is underway, with 377,000 hectares planted by September 1, accounting for 33.8 percent of the national target. Although this is below the 446,200 hectares sown by the same date last year, regions like Venezia and Turnipil are leading the effort. The country is also shifting focus toward winter wheat and barley, with plans to significantly expand barley acreage. Meanwhile, a new 10 percent export duty on rapeseed and soybeans, effective October 1, has been introduced to promote domestic processing. However, this policy has drawn criticism over potential negative impacts on export competitiveness and grower incentives.
• Canada’s canola market is experiencing volatility driven by ongoing trade tensions. A steep 75.8 percent anti-dumping tariff imposed by China has disrupted exports and led to the buildup of canola meal stockpiles. In response, Canada has reinstated duty-free trade with the United States to stabilize prices. Despite these challenges, Canada’s 2025–26 production outlook is strong, with forecasts of 20.1 million tons, supported by favorable weather and improved soil moisture.
• Australia's canola export volumes have fallen sharply as of June 2025 due to stock depletion, though a recent 50,000-ton agreement with China's COFCO signals possible market re-entry. Production for the upcoming season is forecast at 5.97 million tons, a modest decrease. This period is pivotal as the country balances tightening stocks and the potential for renewed Chinese demand.
• In the European Union, rapeseed imports reached 8.3 million tons for the current marketing year, largely sourced from Australia, Ukraine, and Canada. However, imports are projected to fall to 6.1 million tons in the upcoming season due to geopolitical factors and supply adjustments. This decline is expected to increase price pressures across the region.
• Overall, the global canola and rapeseed market continues to be shaped by a complex mix of trade policies, climate variability, and geopolitical tensions, each influencing price structures, production strategies, and international trade flows.

This week’s episode provides an in-depth look at current developments in the global sunflower market.

• In Russia’s Stavropol region, sunflower harvesting has commenced across 12 districts, covering 28,600 hectares and yielding an estimated 46,900 tons of seeds. The average yield is 16.4 centners per hectare. Notably, the share of domestic sunflower hybrids has surged from 16% to 50% of planted areas, thanks to contributions from institutions like the All-Russian Research Institute of Oil Crops, Agroplasma, and Shilkovo Agrokiem. High-level government officials, including Deputy Prime Minister Dmitry Petrushev, are closely monitoring the season's progress.
• Domestic demand for sunflower seeds remains strong, with August shipments fully booked and new supplies expected in September. Prices are stable at approximately €10.60 per metric ton. Meanwhile, Russia has raised its export duties on sunflower oil to 5.746 rubles per ton and sunflower meal to 1.119 rubles per ton for September, up from August levels.
• In Bulgaria, market uncertainty has led farmers to hold back on selling their sunflower crops, contributing to price stability and indicating that a steep price decline is unlikely. Turkey, in a move to boost its global competitiveness, is reducing import duties on sunflower oil and seeds effective October 2025. This policy change is expected to increase imports from Russia and Ukraine, stabilize domestic prices, and strengthen Turkey’s position as a regional exporter.
• Southern Ukraine continues to rely heavily on sunflowers as its dominant spring crop, especially under drought conditions affecting other varieties. Farmers are increasingly adopting zero and minimal tillage practices, and there is growing interest in transitioning from spring to winter crops. Despite challenges, sunflower harvest forecasts remain steady due to these adaptive strategies.
• Globally, sunflower seed production for 2025 is now projected at 59 million metric tons, slightly below earlier estimates due to unfavorable weather in major producing regions including Southern Russia, Ukraine, Hungary, Romania, and Bulgaria. These adjustments reflect broader shifts in the agricultural sector driven by climate pressures and evolving trade policies.

This episode presents a focused overview of the latest developments affecting the global palm oil market.

• In Malaysia, the palm oil sector is navigating new fiscal pressures due to the introduction of a 5% sales and services tax on raw materials, including crude palm kernel oil and palm kernel olein. Industry stakeholders, led by the Deputy Minister of Plantation and Commodities, are actively lobbying the Finance Ministry for a tax exemption on these inputs, arguing they should not be taxed like final consumer goods. The goal is to reduce production costs and enhance global competitiveness.
• Indonesia is facing reduced palm oil export projections, largely due to the B40 biodiesel mandate and decreased export demand. The USDA has lowered its 2024-2025 forecast to 22.8 million tons. However, domestic production is expected to rise by 3%, thanks to improved yields driven by favorable weather and adequate fertilization. Domestic consumption has also grown sharply, as the biodiesel blend increased from 35% to 40%, absorbing a greater share of national production.
• On the global stage, Malaysian palm oil prices remain volatile, shaped by both domestic policy and external forces such as crude oil prices and currency fluctuations. While lower crude oil prices have diminished palm oil’s attractiveness as a biodiesel feedstock, the weakened ringgit has helped ease costs for international buyers, though it has not reversed the overall price decline.
• In the United States, the Department of Agriculture has raised concerns about the implications of Indonesia’s reduced exports, highlighting the broader interdependencies of global commodity markets. Meanwhile, in Europe, Indonesia is pursuing stronger trade ties with the EU following favorable WTO rulings related to palm oil biofuel tariffs. These efforts are part of a broader strategy to improve market access amid ongoing global discussions on sustainable agriculture and deforestation.

This episode delivers a concise overview of the current dynamics shaping the global canola and rapeseed markets.

• In France, rapeseed prices on the Paris Stock Exchange climbed 0.4% for November deliveries, reaching €477.225 per ton. This marks a 4.9% increase from the previous year and the highest price in four weeks. The short- to medium-term price trend is upward, despite an overall longer-term decline, signaling cautious optimism for European rapeseed investors.
• In Canada, canola prices on the Winnipeg Commodity Exchange rose 0.48% for November contracts, closing at C$659.40 per ton. However, the broader market remains in a downward trajectory, pressured by ongoing trade tensions with China. Canadian exporters face challenges, including heavy tariffs that could impose a 100% duty on approximately 400,000 tons of canola meal. As a result, traders are shifting focus to alternative markets such as Southeast Asia and South Korea, often at discounted rates.
• Russia's Novosibirsk region reported a substantial increase in oilseed exports, with rapeseed shipments tripling to 92,000 tons in the first half of the year. This growth is fueled by rising exports to Belarus, China, and Kazakhstan, supported by favorable government policies like the suspension of export duties on sunflower products.
• In Ukraine, rapeseed production has declined by 20%, intensifying competition among processors and exporters. A potential 10% export duty may further shift the balance toward domestic processing. As supply tightens, prices are adjusting, benefiting domestic processors with greater purchasing leverage.

This episode examines emerging trade patterns and geopolitical pressures shaping the global canola market.

• India has re-entered the international rapeseed oil market by importing 6,000 tons from the United Arab Emirates. This marks a shift from its traditional reliance on palm, soybean, and sunflower oils, driven by a 34 percent surge in domestic rapeseed oil prices and a delayed local harvest. However, Indian buyers are already turning to more affordable alternatives like soybean oil.
• In Canada, tensions escalate due to a steep 75.8 percent tariff imposed by China on Canadian canola seeds, jeopardizing a market valued at C$5 billion annually. Saskatchewan Premier Scott Moe and Agriculture Minister Heath MacDonald are seeking federal support to resolve the issue through diplomatic channels. This conflict highlights the crop's vital role in Canada's economy.
• Australia's export volume has plunged dramatically, from 4.95 million tons to just over 102,000 tons in June, due to limited current crop supplies. Optimism surrounds the upcoming November harvest, especially with expectations of renewed Chinese interest. Meanwhile, long-term production faces pressure from issues like blackleg disease, making continued government support essential.
• In a notable shift, China’s COFCO has signed contracts for 50,000 tons of Australian canola at prices below $600 per ton with freight, underscoring a strategic pivot away from Canadian imports amid tariff constraints.
• These developments reflect a rapidly evolving canola trade landscape, influenced by pricing volatility, export tariffs, and adaptive strategies across key producing and importing countries.

This episode examines recent shifts in the global sunflower market.

• Russia's Don region is facing a steep decline in sunflower yields, with average output in Rostov dropping by more than 50 percent to 7.1 centimeters per hectare. Despite an 8.2 percent increase in planting area, a severe drought has negated earlier forecasts based on favorable spring precipitation. In contrast, the Vladimir region is exploring sunflower cultivation through a new initiative led by entrepreneur Hussein Imenov, who is targeting yields of up to 1.5 tons per hectare using Irish hybrid seeds. This effort represents a broader strategy to diversify agriculture in response to changing climate conditions.
• Ukraine has launched its 2025 harvest season with strong early results. Initial yields in Odessa and Dnipropetrovsk are averaging 5.6 centimeters per hectare, with over 1,800 tons already harvested. These early gains, supported by healthy soybean output in Kharkiv, reinforce Ukraine’s continuing relevance in global agriculture, although the full season’s performance remains to be seen.
• India has seen a significant rise in sunflower oil imports from Ukraine, hitting a record 767,000 tons for the 2024-25 season—a 55 percent year-over-year increase. In July alone, Ukrainian oil accounted for 39 percent of India's imports. This expansion has raised Ukraine’s market share in India to 17 percent. Meanwhile, Russian sunflower oil is losing competitiveness due to increased export duties and production setbacks.
• Kazakhstan is expected to achieve average to above-average yields in key areas such as Kostanay and Abai, thanks to favorable weather. A successful season could strengthen Kazakhstan’s position in the global sunflower oil market and influence international trade dynamics.

This episode explores the resilience and shifting dynamics of the global palm oil market.

• Malaysia continues to show stability in its palm oil exports, shipping 191,231 tons to the United States in 2024—just 1.1 percent of its total exports—highlighting a limited dependency on U.S. markets. Government initiatives, including support for smallholders and efforts to combat diseases like Ganoderma stem rot, reinforce Malaysia’s market position. These strategies aim to sustain competitiveness amid global trade uncertainty through sustainability and market diversification.
• Indonesia is preparing for substantial growth in crude palm oil output, projecting an increase from 48.2 million tons in 2024 to 60 million tons by 2030. This expansion is driven by rising demand in food, biofuel, and oleochemical sectors. To support this growth, investments are being made in workforce development and plantation rejuvenation to improve productivity and yields.
• Colombia and Guatemala, ranked fourth and sixth in global palm oil production respectively, are penetrating the Indian market with competitively priced exports. This strategic move, motivated by surplus production, may reshape traditional market dynamics and influence Malaysian futures. Despite high freight costs and a 45-day transit time, these suppliers remain attractive due to their lower landing prices.
• India’s palm oil demand remains strong, bolstered by seasonal consumption increases. The shift to new suppliers could alter established trade patterns and affect pricing trends. Meanwhile, Malaysian futures have experienced volatility, dipping but partially recovering on the strength of recent export data. Prices are expected to remain above RM4,300 per ton, supported by constrained supply forecasts and higher biodiesel demand, which is also reducing soybean availability.