CropGPT - Oils

This episode highlights major developments in the global canola market.

• Australia has resumed canola exports to China for the first time in five years, marking a significant diplomatic and trade milestone following a suspension over phytosanitary concerns. The vessel Armonia A is currently loading approximately 60,000 tons of canola at Esperance for delivery to Qingdao. This shift is influenced by deteriorating China-Canada relations and is backed by strict contamination testing standards and ongoing negotiations aimed at strengthening agricultural ties.
• India is witnessing record high rapeseed plantings, supported by favorable weather and strong Chinese demand for rapeseed meal. Sown areas are projected to increase by 7% to 8% this year. With India being the largest global consumer of edible oils, this surge is expected to enhance domestic production and reduce reliance on expensive imports. The minimum support price for rapeseed has been raised by 4.2% to INR 6,200 per 100 kilograms, encouraging farmers. Rapeseed meal exports to China have reached a record 488,168 metric tons in the fiscal year's first half.
• Pakistan has reopened its market to Canadian canola after a three-year suspension, a development that provides relief for Canada following the loss of access to the Chinese market. Canada previously exported up to 1.35 million tons annually to Pakistan. New regulations now allow genetically modified crops for consumption, opening avenues for Canadian exporters to reestablish and expand market share.
• In the United Kingdom, rapeseed plantings are projected to fall sharply to 240,000 hectares, potentially yielding just 720,000 tons. This decline is due to poor yields and adverse weather, increasing the UK’s reliance on imports, particularly from the EU and Ukraine. As domestic supply contracts, demand for rapeseed meal, oil, and soybean meal is expected to rise amid a recovering livestock sector.
• Meanwhile, Canada is facing a sharp decline in canola exports, down 57% from the previous season. Broader grain exports have also fallen, including an 18% drop in peas and a 1% dip in durum wheat. Canadian farmers are grappling with lower commodity prices and high input costs.

This episode provides a detailed analysis of the global palm oil market.

• Malaysian palm oil futures have rebounded after reaching a 17-week low, with the benchmark January contract rising by RM29 to RM444 per metric ton. This recovery is influenced by movements in global edible oil markets. Previously, stable production levels and profit taking had driven prices down. Looking ahead, Malaysia projects a two-year high in palm oil inventory, reaching approximately 2.44 million metric tons due to production surpassing export demand.
• India, a major consumer, continues to reduce its palm oil imports, a trend impacting Malaysian futures. While specific figures are limited, this reduced demand adds pressure to Malaysian supply chains. In Brazil, there is a strategic push to increase domestic palm oil production and reduce import reliance, which currently accounts for 60% of national consumption. In Pará, the company Denpaso is leading this effort through advanced processing infrastructure and the cultivation of disease-resistant hybrid palms, which may yield 8 to 10 tons per hectare. The strategy also integrates family farming to boost rural household income.
• Since 2019, Denpaso has produced about 500,000 hybrid seedlings annually, and despite challenges like disease and land disputes, its partnerships with local communities present a scalable model for Brazil’s palm oil sector. Meanwhile, India’s palm oil imports fell sharply in October 2025 to 750,000 metric tons from 980,000 the previous month. This five-month low results from high global prices, muted festival demand, and high port inventories. A pivot toward cheaper alternatives like soybean and sunflower oils has contributed to a 16% year-over-year decline in palm oil imports.
• These consumption patterns in major markets like India are exerting downward pressure on the global palm oil industry. At the same time, environmental and transparency issues persist. As COP30 talks approach, sustainability and deforestation remain top concerns. Only half of the leading palm oil producers, processors, and traders publicly disclose deforestation monitoring measures. While more companies are committing to zero deforestation, weak supply chain traceability continues to hamper progress, threatening both market confidence and environmental health. These developments underscore the need for more sustainable and transparent industry practices.

This episode covers major developments in the global canola market.

• Canada is on track for record-high canola production in 2025, projected between 21.1 and 21.6 million tons, exceeding initial government estimates. Exceptional yields across Western Canada, aided by favorable weather, have driven this surge. However, Canadian exports face serious headwinds: China has imposed steep tariffs (75.8% on seed and 100% on oil and meal), significantly cutting access to one of Canada's primary markets. Strained U.S. trade relations have also encouraged Canadian producers to explore alternative markets and expand domestic biofuel initiatives.
• China’s imports of Canadian canola are projected to decline by one million tons to 3.1 million tons for 2025–2026, as the country pivots toward Australian supply following relaxed phytosanitary restrictions. Yet, China’s overall demand remains strong due to its own underperforming harvest, which fell to 12.4 million tons.
• Australia, meanwhile, has seen a 60% drop in canola exports due to tight domestic supply and a halt in shipments to the European Union. However, exports to China are recovering. The 2025–2026 harvest is forecast between 6.1 and 6.4 million tons, limited by dry conditions. In Brazil, canola production has grown rapidly, with acreage expanding 43% and output rising 58% to 309,000 tons, spurred by biofuel demand and supportive policies in regions like Rio Grande do Sul.
• South Africa’s canola production rose by 7% despite early pest challenges, with improved late-season weather and adaptive farming practices supporting its goal of becoming a net exporter. In Ukraine, focus has shifted to domestic rapeseed processing due to new tariffs and logistical issues, pushing prices higher. Russia, on the other hand, has increased rapeseed oil exports, particularly to China and Tunisia, following a strong production season.
• Kazakhstan has reached record rapeseed acreage and production levels in 2025 and completed its first direct exports to China, benefiting from favorable conditions. In Europe, countries like Bulgaria are transitioning from raw seed exports to biodiesel production, responding to EU energy directives and stronger processing margins. Germany and Moldova are also shifting toward value-added rapeseed processing, aligning with broader regional sustainability goals.

This week’s episode offers a comprehensive look at the shifting landscape of the global palm oil market.

• In Malaysia, palm oil prices fluctuated throughout October, influenced by inconsistent global market signals and volatile crude oil prices. Declining demand from India and rising domestic stocks, now at a two-year high, added pressure to the market. A strengthening ringgit further challenged export competitiveness. Despite these factors, exports grew by 12% month over month, driven by increased shipments to the European Union, Pakistan, and Nigeria, even as exports to China fell. Domestic production slightly declined due to aging plantations, labor shortages, and pest issues. Nonetheless, progress in sustainable certification and a reduction in U.S. tariffs (from 25% to 19%) are expected to enhance market access.
• Indonesia anticipates a 10% rise in palm oil production, supported by favorable weather and improved plantation practices. The expansion supports both export growth and increased allocation to the domestic biodiesel program. However, potential export restrictions and domestic market obligations could impact global availability. Meanwhile, India is experiencing a shift in edible oil consumption patterns, with soy oil gaining market share due to cost advantages. The government is actively promoting domestic oil palm cultivation under the National Mission on Edible Oils to reduce import dependency.
• Thailand’s palm oil sector is seeing strong recovery, highlighted by record exports following the removal of restrictions. India continues to be a major destination, bolstering Thailand's standing in the Southeast Asian market. In Cameroon, domestic production is improving but still falls short of demand, necessitating significant imports. National initiatives like InterPalm CAM aim to enhance self-sufficiency, though broader strategies are needed to ensure long-term supply stability.

This episode provides a global overview of the sunflower market as of November 2025.

• Turkey's domestic sunflower production fell short at 1.1 million tons for the 2024-2025 season, prompting increased imports of raw seeds now totaling 800,000 tons. Adjusted import duties (12% for seeds, 30% for crude oil) contributed to a 13% decline in sunflower oil imports, primarily due to reduced shipments from Ukraine as competitively priced Russian oil gained favor. In August alone, Turkey imported 71,000 tons of sunflower oil, mostly from Russia.
• China has continued its downward trend in sunflower oil imports, recording a 58.9% drop in 2025 following a 28.2% decline in 2024. By early 2025, purchases had fallen to 273,800 tons, with Russia accounting for more than half. The downturn is linked to weakening consumer demand and a 19.9% year-over-year reduction in import costs.
• The European Union forecasts 10.4 million tons in sunflower production for the 2025-2026 season. However, the crop's competitiveness has diminished due to more favorable rapeseed conditions in countries like Romania and Poland. A regional oil surplus has further pressured sunflower oil prices.
• Kazakhstan emerged as a top 10 global sunflower oil exporter in 2025, supported by a February 2023 export duty regime that boosted both output and trade volume. Argentina also saw strong growth, with sunflower oil exports reaching 590,000 tons in Q3 2025—up from 380,000 tons the previous year—largely driven by Indian demand. Sunflower meal exports reached a 25-year high, reinforcing Argentina’s expanding agricultural influence.
• In the United States, regenerative sunflower farming is gaining momentum, particularly in Southern Minnesota, where practices combine soil health improvements with commercial goals. In South Australia, sunflower fields are becoming an agritourism attraction, signaling potential for alternative revenue streams even as hard data on yields remains limited.

This episode presents an in-depth summary of the global palm oil market.

• Malaysian palm oil futures for January delivery fell by RM51, settling at RM4000.20 per metric ton, marking a second consecutive weekly decline of 2.06 percent. The market remains cautious, trading between RM4,400 and RM4,500 amid uncertainty and a lack of new drivers. Slight strength in the ringgit and limited influence from other vegetable oils have contributed to this stagnation.
• Malaysia’s September palm oil exports rose 7.7 percent to 1.42 million tons, largely driven by demand from India. However, stocks remain at a 22-month high, reflecting ample supply. Indian imports of Malaysian palm oil surged to 312,000 tons in September, the highest in nearly a year, influenced by tightening global vegetable oil supplies and potential biofuel policy changes in Indonesia that may restrict future availability.
• Despite palm oil now being priced higher than soybean oil, India remains the world’s top edible oil importer. Rising palm oil costs may impact consumption patterns, but strong demand is expected to continue.
• Looking ahead, cooking oil prices are projected to rise through 2026 due to constrained global supplies and expanding biofuel mandates. Ghana is pushing forward with a national oil palm plantation initiative aimed at reducing import dependence and creating over 500,000 jobs by 2026. The plan includes distributing 1.5 million seedlings and improving oil extraction processes.
• Indonesia's proposed B50 biodiesel mandate would raise domestic palm oil use to 17 million tons annually, up 3 million tons from the current B40 policy. This change is expected to tighten export availability, historically between 24 and 28 million tons, and maintain elevated global prices. Broader market pricing is also influenced by competing vegetable oil prices and crude oil trends. Weaker crude prices could reduce palm oil’s attractiveness as a biodiesel input, adding further complexity to market conditions.

This episode highlights key developments in the global canola and oilseed markets.

• Australia's canola exports for August 2025 reached 180,037 tons, marking a 16 percent increase from July, yet still significantly lower than the 322,948 tons exported in August of the previous year. The leading importers included the United Arab Emirates, Bangladesh, and Japan, while European destinations remained absent due to ample local supply.
• Harvest activity for the 2025–2026 season is underway across Southern Queensland, Far Northern New South Wales, and Western Australia. Initial yield forecasts of 6.4 million tons have been revised down to 6.1 million tons by Lockstock Consulting, citing dry conditions as the primary factor. This highlights the canola crop’s sensitivity to weather variability.
• In Russia, rapeseed oil exports to China continue to rise, reaching $975.4 million over the first nine months of the year, a one-third increase from the previous year. Conversely, sunflower oil exports to China declined sharply, and soybean oil shipments also fell. Nonetheless, Russia maintained its position as the second largest exporter of edible oils to China, trailing Argentina and ahead of Brazil.
• Ukraine’s oilseed market is experiencing a shift, with some processors favoring sunflower production over rapeseed due to more favorable crush margins. Despite this trend and ongoing export duties, rapeseed exports rose modestly in October. By mid-October, Ukrainian farmers had planted over 1,012 hectares of winter rapeseed, reaching 90.8 percent of the planned area. Notably, several regions completed sowing ahead of schedule, indicating promising agronomic conditions.

This week’s sunflower market report.

• Russia has revised its sunflower harvest forecast downward to 17.2 million tons for 2025, reduced from an earlier estimate of 17.4 million tons. The adjustment follows record-low yields in the southern regions, now at 1.36 tons per hectare, marking the lowest in 13 years. Nonetheless, output from the Central, Volga, and Siberian regions is expected to help offset this regional shortfall. Russia’s broader oilseed sector remains strong, with soybean and rapeseed production expected to reach 8.5 million and 5.4 million tons, respectively, suggesting near-record output levels for oilseeds overall.
• In Ukraine, the sunflower market is showing growth despite a season hampered by adverse weather. Harvest progress remains slow, with only 6.3 million of the anticipated 11.5 to 12 million tons gathered to date. High moisture levels have impacted quality, but demand remains robust. Prices for sunflower seeds with 48% oil content are climbing, currently at 27,500 Ukrainian hryvnia per ton, with projections as high as 30,500 hryvnia by late autumn. Tight supply and strong demand for quality seeds are fueling this upward price momentum. Sunflower oil exports remain strong, with 146,000 tons shipped as of October 20, driven by domestic demand and shortages in the European Union.
• In the EU and global markets, the outlook for oilseeds is mixed. Strategy Grains forecasts a 13% increase in rapeseed yields for the 2025–26 season, aided by expanded planting and favorable weather. Soybean production is also expected to peak at 3.2 million tons. Despite these gains, the vegetable oil market remains tense. The sunflower oil segment may soon face a surplus, prompting potential adjustments in both prices and supply across Europe.

This episode offers a detailed look into the current state of the global palm oil market.

• In Malaysia, palm oil futures showed marginal gains, with the January delivery contract rising by RM6 to close at RM4518 per metric ton. This follows a previous session decline to RM4560, driven by weak sentiment and profit-taking. Competitive pressure from cheaper soy oil continues to influence market behavior. Despite high inventories and uncertain demand, resilient Malaysian exports are helping to mitigate steeper price declines.
• India's palm oil imports dropped to a four-month low of 829,017 metric tons in September, a 16.3% decline. This downturn is largely due to a 36.8% surge in soy oil imports following Argentina’s removal of export taxes on soy products. As the largest global buyer of vegetable oils, India’s shift toward more affordable soy oil is expected to dampen Malaysian palm oil futures, especially during the typically strong festival season.
• Indonesia maintains its status as a key global supplier, providing about 90% of Pakistan’s palm oil imports. This dependency supports food affordability and security in Pakistan, but also exposes the country to fluctuations tied to Indonesia's export policies, including its biofuel strategies. Indonesia’s alignment with global sustainability standards through its national palm oil certification scheme further shapes market access and export credibility.
• On the sustainability front, a partnership between the European Forest Institute and Malaysia's certification body aims to enhance traceability and compliance with the European Union's deforestation-free requirements. These efforts are crucial to maintaining international competitiveness and meeting evolving regulatory expectations.

This episode delivers a comprehensive analysis of the global canola market.

• Canada is expecting a 27% increase in canola yield, projecting at least 21 million tons for the season—an uptick of 1.6 million tons compared to last year. High threshing rates in Saskatchewan and Manitoba are driving this growth. However, trade tensions, particularly with China, have curtailed export demand, with unsold stocks potentially reaching 3 million tons by July 2026. This surplus is putting downward pressure on domestic prices, with future trends likely influenced by developments in the biofuels sector.
• In China, trade relations with Canada remain strained, with provisional tariffs of 75.8% imposed on Canadian oilseed imports. While these restrictions continue to limit trade, the European Union is emerging as an alternative market, anticipating 1.4 million tons of Canadian canola imports this season. Resolution of trade disputes could significantly reshape market flows.
• Moldova is seeing growth in rapeseed planting, aided by 45,000 imported planting units sufficient for 130,000 to 135,000 hectares. However, some producers are bypassing standard agricultural practices by using harvested crops for self-sowing, potentially boosting production by 10% to 20%. After a 15-year hiatus, Moldova has resumed rapeseed oil processing, with recent exports totaling 6,400 tons.
• Ukraine faces regulatory uncertainty in rapeseed exports due to a lack of duty-free protocols. Domestic processing is expected to surpass 1 million tons, primarily serving the EU and China. In Australia, canola exports reached 180,037 tons in August, a 16% increase from July but down 44% from the previous year. Dry conditions have led to a downward revision in yield forecasts from 6.4 to 6.1 million tons.
• Brazil has recorded its largest canola harvest, with a 43% increase in cultivated area from 2024, totaling 218,000 hectares. This expansion aligns with rising demand for biofuel production, supported by new investments in canola-based biodiesel facilities. The state of Rio Grande do Sul plans to expand cultivation to 1 million hectares, driven by enhanced practices and the high oil content of canola.
• In Russia's Krasnodar Territory, 71,000 hectares of winter rapeseed have been sown for the 2026 harvest, a 7% year-over-year increase. Broader autumn sowing plans include 1.8 million hectares, reflecting the region’s strategic importance in both domestic supply and export markets.