This episode highlights key developments in the global canola and oilseed markets.

• Australia's canola exports for August 2025 reached 180,037 tons, marking a 16 percent increase from July, yet still significantly lower than the 322,948 tons exported in August of the previous year. The leading importers included the United Arab Emirates, Bangladesh, and Japan, while European destinations remained absent due to ample local supply.
• Harvest activity for the 2025–2026 season is underway across Southern Queensland, Far Northern New South Wales, and Western Australia. Initial yield forecasts of 6.4 million tons have been revised down to 6.1 million tons by Lockstock Consulting, citing dry conditions as the primary factor. This highlights the canola crop’s sensitivity to weather variability.
• In Russia, rapeseed oil exports to China continue to rise, reaching $975.4 million over the first nine months of the year, a one-third increase from the previous year. Conversely, sunflower oil exports to China declined sharply, and soybean oil shipments also fell. Nonetheless, Russia maintained its position as the second largest exporter of edible oils to China, trailing Argentina and ahead of Brazil.
• Ukraine’s oilseed market is experiencing a shift, with some processors favoring sunflower production over rapeseed due to more favorable crush margins. Despite this trend and ongoing export duties, rapeseed exports rose modestly in October. By mid-October, Ukrainian farmers had planted over 1,012 hectares of winter rapeseed, reaching 90.8 percent of the planned area. Notably, several regions completed sowing ahead of schedule, indicating promising agronomic conditions.

This week’s sunflower market report.

• Russia has revised its sunflower harvest forecast downward to 17.2 million tons for 2025, reduced from an earlier estimate of 17.4 million tons. The adjustment follows record-low yields in the southern regions, now at 1.36 tons per hectare, marking the lowest in 13 years. Nonetheless, output from the Central, Volga, and Siberian regions is expected to help offset this regional shortfall. Russia’s broader oilseed sector remains strong, with soybean and rapeseed production expected to reach 8.5 million and 5.4 million tons, respectively, suggesting near-record output levels for oilseeds overall.
• In Ukraine, the sunflower market is showing growth despite a season hampered by adverse weather. Harvest progress remains slow, with only 6.3 million of the anticipated 11.5 to 12 million tons gathered to date. High moisture levels have impacted quality, but demand remains robust. Prices for sunflower seeds with 48% oil content are climbing, currently at 27,500 Ukrainian hryvnia per ton, with projections as high as 30,500 hryvnia by late autumn. Tight supply and strong demand for quality seeds are fueling this upward price momentum. Sunflower oil exports remain strong, with 146,000 tons shipped as of October 20, driven by domestic demand and shortages in the European Union.
• In the EU and global markets, the outlook for oilseeds is mixed. Strategy Grains forecasts a 13% increase in rapeseed yields for the 2025–26 season, aided by expanded planting and favorable weather. Soybean production is also expected to peak at 3.2 million tons. Despite these gains, the vegetable oil market remains tense. The sunflower oil segment may soon face a surplus, prompting potential adjustments in both prices and supply across Europe.

This episode offers a detailed look into the current state of the global palm oil market.

• In Malaysia, palm oil futures showed marginal gains, with the January delivery contract rising by RM6 to close at RM4518 per metric ton. This follows a previous session decline to RM4560, driven by weak sentiment and profit-taking. Competitive pressure from cheaper soy oil continues to influence market behavior. Despite high inventories and uncertain demand, resilient Malaysian exports are helping to mitigate steeper price declines.
• India's palm oil imports dropped to a four-month low of 829,017 metric tons in September, a 16.3% decline. This downturn is largely due to a 36.8% surge in soy oil imports following Argentina’s removal of export taxes on soy products. As the largest global buyer of vegetable oils, India’s shift toward more affordable soy oil is expected to dampen Malaysian palm oil futures, especially during the typically strong festival season.
• Indonesia maintains its status as a key global supplier, providing about 90% of Pakistan’s palm oil imports. This dependency supports food affordability and security in Pakistan, but also exposes the country to fluctuations tied to Indonesia's export policies, including its biofuel strategies. Indonesia’s alignment with global sustainability standards through its national palm oil certification scheme further shapes market access and export credibility.
• On the sustainability front, a partnership between the European Forest Institute and Malaysia's certification body aims to enhance traceability and compliance with the European Union's deforestation-free requirements. These efforts are crucial to maintaining international competitiveness and meeting evolving regulatory expectations.

This episode delivers a comprehensive analysis of the global canola market.

• Canada is expecting a 27% increase in canola yield, projecting at least 21 million tons for the season—an uptick of 1.6 million tons compared to last year. High threshing rates in Saskatchewan and Manitoba are driving this growth. However, trade tensions, particularly with China, have curtailed export demand, with unsold stocks potentially reaching 3 million tons by July 2026. This surplus is putting downward pressure on domestic prices, with future trends likely influenced by developments in the biofuels sector.
• In China, trade relations with Canada remain strained, with provisional tariffs of 75.8% imposed on Canadian oilseed imports. While these restrictions continue to limit trade, the European Union is emerging as an alternative market, anticipating 1.4 million tons of Canadian canola imports this season. Resolution of trade disputes could significantly reshape market flows.
• Moldova is seeing growth in rapeseed planting, aided by 45,000 imported planting units sufficient for 130,000 to 135,000 hectares. However, some producers are bypassing standard agricultural practices by using harvested crops for self-sowing, potentially boosting production by 10% to 20%. After a 15-year hiatus, Moldova has resumed rapeseed oil processing, with recent exports totaling 6,400 tons.
• Ukraine faces regulatory uncertainty in rapeseed exports due to a lack of duty-free protocols. Domestic processing is expected to surpass 1 million tons, primarily serving the EU and China. In Australia, canola exports reached 180,037 tons in August, a 16% increase from July but down 44% from the previous year. Dry conditions have led to a downward revision in yield forecasts from 6.4 to 6.1 million tons.
• Brazil has recorded its largest canola harvest, with a 43% increase in cultivated area from 2024, totaling 218,000 hectares. This expansion aligns with rising demand for biofuel production, supported by new investments in canola-based biodiesel facilities. The state of Rio Grande do Sul plans to expand cultivation to 1 million hectares, driven by enhanced practices and the high oil content of canola.
• In Russia's Krasnodar Territory, 71,000 hectares of winter rapeseed have been sown for the 2026 harvest, a 7% year-over-year increase. Broader autumn sowing plans include 1.8 million hectares, reflecting the region’s strategic importance in both domestic supply and export markets.

This episode outlines significant developments in the palm oil sector.

• Malaysia’s palm oil futures rose by 1.7% to RM456 per metric ton, the highest since August, driven by market sensitivity to related commodity trends and tightening supply expectations. Declining stocks and production levels are expected to support continued price increases. The weaker ringgit and strategic government support have enhanced Malaysia’s competitiveness in export markets. The upcoming Palm Oil International Conference is expected to further consolidate Malaysia’s global position.
• Indonesia continues advancing its palm oil strategy through its B50 biodiesel program, slated for implementation in late 2026. This initiative aims to boost domestic crude palm oil consumption by 5.3 million tons, cut diesel imports, and enhance national energy security. A planned biofuel complex in Papua underscores the government's broader energy goals. However, trade tensions remain a challenge, particularly as the European Union appeals a WTO ruling favoring Indonesia. The EU’s evolving regulatory landscape, including the Renewable Energy Directive II and the forthcoming Deforestation Regulation, demands deforestation-free supply chains by 2026. These policies are already influencing EU palm oil imports, pushing suppliers to diversify their markets.
• In Pakistan, Malaysia is expanding its palm oil trade through the Malaysia Pakistan Closer Economic Partnership Agreement, emphasizing sustainable practices, halal product collaboration, and enhanced agricultural methods. These developments are supported by efforts to deepen aviation, tourism, and economic ties, reinforcing a multifaceted bilateral relationship.

This week’s update explores the latest developments in the global sunflower market.

• Ukraine’s sunflower yield dropped significantly to 5.5 million tons from last year’s 8 million tons, with average yields falling to 1.83 tons per hectare due to adverse weather. Prolonged rainfall in the western and northern regions has disrupted harvest operations and increased seed acidity, raising risks for producers. Nonetheless, the resulting surge in seed supply has driven a modest increase in domestic demand, lifting prices to approximately 128,000 Ukrainian hryvnia per ton.
• In Russia’s Orenburg region, sunflower yields have exceeded expectations, totaling over 1 million tons with an average of 12.3 quintiles per hectare. As of early October, 61% of farmland had been harvested, with high yields particularly in northern districts. The region plans to expand sunflower cultivation by 220,000 hectares, aiming for 1.5 million hectares in total, reinforcing its commitment to production growth.
• Kernel’s fiscal year 2025 report notes a 4% decline in sunflower yields to 2.7 tons per hectare. While rapeseed production remained stable and corn yields increased significantly, reductions in wheat and sunflower yields reflect persistent agricultural challenges. Strategic adjustments in cultivation and expanded acreage have helped maintain overall resilience.
• Global sunflower oil prices rose by $40 USD last week, even as Ukraine’s domestic prices declined, suggesting undervaluation in local markets. Looking ahead, Ukraine anticipates a 3.3% increase in sunflower acreage, though ongoing yield pressures prompt cautious expectations for the upcoming season.

This episode delivers a comprehensive overview of the global canola and rapeseed markets

• Australia reported a significant drop in canola exports in August 2025, falling 60% from the previous month to 180,000 tons. This sharp decline, attributed to low stock levels from a reduced 2024 harvest, also reflects a considerable year-on-year fall from August 2024’s 373,000 tons. Despite lower exports, Australian canola maintained access to markets such as Japan, the UAE, and Bangladesh, although exports to the European Union have ceased. There is optimism for resumed exports to China due to shifting trade preferences driven by high tariffs on Canadian canola. Since early 2025, Australia has exported 3.76 million tons of canola, down from 4.32 million tons in the same period last year, with the EU previously accounting for a significant share.
• In South Africa, canola production is expected to grow, supported by expanded planting and favorable conditions. The Early Crop Estimates Committee projects a harvest of 311,240 tons, a 7% increase from the previous season despite minor early setbacks. This expansion underscores South Africa’s emergence as a regional canola exporter, with Germany and Belgium as major destinations, and rising domestic demand further strengthening the sector.
• In Russia’s Siberia region, rapeseed exports rose sharply in the first nine months of 2025, reaching over 56,000 tons. This growth was driven primarily by strong demand from Belarus, with additional exports to China and Kazakhstan. Kazakhstan also began exporting rapeseed to China following favorable weather and increased cultivation, forecasting a crop of 540,000 tons, up 89% from the previous year.
• Trade developments continued with Kazakhstan’s direct rapeseed exports to China, helping total exports reach 120,700 tons. Key importing countries included Latvia, Russia, and Poland, with forecasts aiming for 150,000 tons by year-end. In Ukraine, poor weather impacted sunflower and soybean output, though rapeseed exports remained stable thanks to export duty exemptions. Domestic rapeseed processing peaked in September, surpassing exports for the first time, as processors sought to build reserves ahead of the sunflower harvest.
• Meanwhile, China's import of 540,000 tons of Australian canola reflects its strategic shift away from Canadian sources following a 75.8% import duty. Reports suggest China may be overstating domestic rapeseed output to influence global market sentiment amid these trade disputes.

This week’s canola market analysis.

• China’s canola imports are projected to drop significantly to 3.1 million tons in the 2025–2026 marketing year, driven by elevated tariffs on Canadian products. Despite these trade barriers, China's domestic production remains stable, with a slight expansion in harvested area anticipated. As a result, total canola consumption is expected to decline to 19 million tons, mirroring a broader pullback in soybean imports as well.
• Canada faces considerable market pressure from reduced Chinese demand. With a strong production forecast of 19.9 million tons for 2025–2026, Canada is pursuing diversification through new markets and domestic biofuel expansion. Policy incentives and increased loan limits for producers aim to support this shift.
• Australia is capitalizing on improved trade relations with China, substantially increasing its canola exports. July exports were robust, especially to Japan, the United Arab Emirates, and now increasingly to China, which is shifting away from Canadian imports. Globally, combined canola and rapeseed production is forecasted to rise to 90.96 million tons, bolstered by favorable harvests in Canada, Australia, Russia, and Moldova.
• Geopolitical and trade developments are also influencing flows elsewhere. The European Union is reevaluating its import strategies following reduced Ukrainian supplies caused by new export tariffs. Meanwhile, Russia's strong rapeseed output and expanded exports to countries like India are altering the global rapeseed oil landscape. The United Arab Emirates and Russia have emerged as key suppliers to India, signaling a redirection in trade patterns.

This week’s palm market summary highlights diverging trajectories for Malaysia and Indonesia as they navigate production shifts.

• In Malaysia, crude palm oil production rose 2.35 percent month on month in August 2025, reaching 1.86 million tons. However, exports declined slightly by 0.29 percent, driving inventories to a 20-month high of 2.2 million tons. This six-month stock buildup underscores the gap between rising production and subdued demand. Malaysia’s premium pricing compared to other vegetable oils like soybean, rapeseed, and sunflower oils has weakened its competitive position, particularly in markets like India and the European Union. India’s pivot toward cheaper soybean oil adds further pressure on Malaysian exports.
• Domestically, Malaysia faces a resurgence of the Ganoderma fungus, impacting 13.7 percent of surveyed second-generation palm plantations and prompting concerns over potential yield losses. In response, the Malaysian Sustainable Palm Oil Certification is being promoted to bolster global confidence, especially under the European Union’s anti-deforestation regulations. Policy efforts also include lobbying for improved market access and addressing structural issues like low replanting rates, though limited government funding presents hurdles. Ongoing negotiations with the United States may lead to zero-tariff trade, offering new export opportunities.
• Indonesia, in contrast, reported a 13.5 percent year-over-year increase in palm oil exports from January to August 2025, totaling 16.2 million tons. This growth is supported by strong demand from India and China, and enhanced trade relations with the European Union and the United States. Nearly half of Indonesia’s crude palm oil is consumed domestically due to a robust biodiesel mandate. While this supports energy independence, it also restricts export availability. The state-owned company Agronas Palma Nusantara is expanding its industrial footprint, managing 1.5 million hectares and producing 5.7 million tons of crude palm oil annually. Sustainability measures, such as converting palm oil waste into bioethanol, reflect a growing environmental commitment.

This week’s sunflower market report highlights diverging regional outcomes, shifting trade dynamics.

• In Russia, the 2025 sunflower harvest presented mixed results. The Southern Federal District suffered a 37.6 percent year-over-year yield drop due to severe drought, with average yields falling to 12.3 centners per hectare. However, yield increases exceeding 20 percent in the Volga and Central regions partially offset these losses. National production is now forecasted between 17.4 and 18.5 million tons, potentially surpassing 2024 levels. Sunflower seed exports rose 27 percent, primarily to EAEU countries, while sunflower oil exports declined by 34 percent. Recent increases in export duties on sunflower oil and meal may reshape future trade flows and domestic market behavior.
• Ukraine’s outlook has weakened, with the USDA revising its harvest forecast down by 800,000 tons to 12.7 million tons. Southern regions were hardest hit by poor weather, pushing yields down to 1.55 tons per hectare. Although central and western regions performed better, they were unable to compensate for the decline. Sunflower oil exports dropped 24 percent year over year, with no exports to India recorded in August 2025. Globally, falling palm oil and soybean oil prices, influenced by United States–China trade tensions, are putting pressure on sunflower oil markets.
• Kazakhstan has expanded its role in the global market. Increased planted area and production drove a 27 percent annual rise in sunflower oil output. Policy support through VAT reductions and preferential loans has supported this growth. Kazakhstan’s exports, especially to China, are benefiting from competitive pricing.
• Turkey reported a 2.4-fold increase in raw sunflower seed imports, reaching 800,000 tons, which reduced its reliance on sunflower oil imports by 13 percent. Turkish buyers showed a preference for competitively priced Russian sunflower oil, reducing demand for Ukrainian exports.
• Overall, global sunflower production forecasts have been revised downward due to setbacks in Ukraine and the European Union. However, gains in Kazakhstan and Argentina may help offset the global shortfall. As supplies tighten, international sunflower oil prices are expected to remain elevated.