CropGPT - Oils

This week’s canola market report.

• Canada is facing mounting pressure in its canola export market following China’s imposition of a 76 percent tariff. Efforts to redirect exports to the European Union have been constrained by reduced EU demand, driven by a strong domestic harvest and weaker biofuel sector activity. Canadian exports to the EU have fallen sharply, compounding the impact of restricted access to the Chinese market. Nonetheless, domestic processing remains solid, with 3.18 million tons of canola processed by mid-November.
• A potential opening for Canada could emerge if Australian canola shifts back to China, freeing up room in the European market. However, the EU’s own rapeseed production has surged to an estimated 20.3 million tons in 2025, bolstered by high yields in countries such as Denmark and Sweden. This strong harvest has significantly reduced the EU's import dependency, reshaping global trade patterns and diminishing opportunities for traditional suppliers like Canada.
• Ukraine has made progress in planting winter rapeseed over 1.08 million hectares, reaching 96 percent of its intended area. Still, forecasts indicate a possible production decline by 2025, which could trigger a price increase due to tightening supply. Meanwhile, Russia is expanding its winter rapeseed plantings beyond projected levels for the 2026 season, potentially strengthening its future export position.
• Globally, the oilseed market is set to achieve record production levels. Strong outputs in rapeseed, palm kernel, and sunflower seeds are expected to compensate for reduced soybean supply, with total oilseed production forecasted at approximately 688 million tons for the 2025–2026 crop year.
• However, persistent trade tensions between the United States and China continue to cloud the international trade landscape, adding uncertainty to future market trajectories and export flows.

This week’s palm oil market report.

• A system outage at the Globex electronic trading platform temporarily halted Malaysian palm oil futures trading, notably impacting the February 2026 contract which briefly surged to RM4,112 per metric ton before trading was suspended. Over the past week, the contract rose by 1.1 percent but remains down 2.78 percent for the month, reflecting ongoing market volatility.
• Production concerns persist due to flooding in Malaysia and Indonesia, countered by growing demand from India. Malaysia’s palm oil output rose modestly by 3.2 percent in early November. However, inventory levels hit a six-year high in October at 2.46 million tons, triggering price fluctuations and a cautious recovery. Export figures have been inconsistent, with recent declines compounded by a strong currency and competitive global market pressures.
• Indonesia remains a dominant exporter, shipping 2.2 million tons of palm oil in September, including refined products. Despite adverse weather, Indonesia continues to significantly influence global pricing and supply trends.
• International partnerships and policy initiatives are also reshaping the industry. Malaysia is encouraging long-term palm oil agreements with China amid falling exports, seeking to counter competition from soybean oil. Cameroon is reviving its palm sector through the establishment of two new industrial units funded by CFA51.7 billion in loans, aiming to restore the Cameroon Development Corporation’s operations following political disruptions.
• Ghana plans to invest $500 million between 2026 and 2032 under its National Integrated Palm Oil Development Policy to reduce import dependence, enhance domestic processing capacity, support smallholders, and combat illicit imports. The initiative is backed by international financial cooperation and aims to promote agricultural sustainability and employment.
• India, as the world’s largest palm oil importer, is expected to increase imports by nearly 20 percent. This move, driven by price competitiveness, will likely affect inventory levels in producing nations and further influence global supply-demand balances.

This episode presents a comprehensive overview of the global palm oil market.

• In Malaysia, palm oil futures reached a three-week high, supported by rising soybean oil prices and a weaker ringgit. The January benchmark contract climbed to RM4,260 per metric ton, though gains were tempered by a slight currency appreciation that affected foreign buying. Despite ongoing monsoon conditions, major producers like S.D. Guthrie reported steady operations. October recorded a notable 11.02 percent month-on-month production rise, pushing inventories to a 6.5-year high. However, higher output pressured export volumes, even as export value rose by 4.9 percent to RM82.6 billion.
• Indonesia, the world’s top palm oil producer, is navigating policy uncertainty. A government crackdown has reclaimed 3.4 million hectares of unauthorized plantations, which could disrupt future production. Domestic supply has tightened under an expanding biodiesel mandate, elevating prices. Analysts suggest that if current policies persist, futures may climb to record highs, although long-term production risks loom due to reduced investment in cultivation and fertilization. A potential tariff agreement with the United States may offer some export relief.
• In the European Union, palm oil imports have dropped by 18 percent to 1.08 million tons amid policy-driven reductions in biofuel-related demand. While Europe remains an important market, importers like the Netherlands, Italy, and Germany are transitioning toward sustainable alternatives such as waste oils and fats. This shift reflects broader scrutiny of palm oil’s environmental impact and underscores evolving trade dynamics.

This episode delivers an in-depth look at key developments in the global sunflower market.

• In Ukraine's Mykolaiv region, sunflower yields fell dramatically from 21 to just 8.5 centimeters per hectare, slashing harvest volumes from 895,000 to 230,000 tons. This collapse led to a sharp rise in sunflower oil prices, with refined oil reaching 70 Ukrainian hryvnias per liter and fried oil peaking at 100 hryvnias. Despite the harvest shortfall, the Ukrainian government has resisted imposing export quotas, driven by foreign exchange needs. Meanwhile, farms like one in Cherkassy have found success with diversified crop rotations, notably high oleic sunflower varieties yielding over 100 percent profits.
• Ukraine remains a dominant force in the global sunflower oil market, contributing 46 percent of world exports. However, price pressures continue amid tight domestic supply and growing demand. In Russia's Southern Federal District, sunflower stocks dropped 26 percent from the previous year, particularly in the Rostov and Krasnodar regions. Overall oilseed stock fell by 20 percent due to drought during the flowering period, with yields hitting a 13-year low of 1.17 tons per hectare. In contrast, wheat stocks rose 6.5 percent in the same region, illustrating variable crop performance under similar climate conditions.
• The Stavropol territory bucked the downward trend, achieving a 4.9 percent yield increase, reflecting successful regional efforts to enhance seed production infrastructure. On the market side, sunflower prices in Ukraine continue to fluctuate, with processing plants facing material shortages expected to last only six more months. Internationally, sunflower oil prices have stabilized in key markets such as Northern Europe and Turkey.

This episode provides a focused update on the global canola and rapeseed markets as of November 23, 2025.

• In India, rapeseed planting has surged to record levels, driven by favorable weather and heightened Chinese demand for rapeseed meal. The sown area has expanded by 13.5 percent year over year, with expectations for a further 7 to 8 percent increase due to strong export prospects and a 4.2 percent rise in the minimum support price. This growth is partially a response to China’s 100 percent tariff on Canadian imports, prompting China to diversify sourcing.
• Australia has resumed canola exports to China after a five-year hiatus, coinciding with a forecasted bumper crop of 6.39 million tons, the fourth-largest on record. A 65,000-ton shipment to Shandong Province underscores this renewed trade route. While Australia traditionally serves the EU, access to China opens new competitive dynamics, particularly as Canada faces a 54.1 percent year-on-year decline in exports. Canada's logistical and cost challenges, including issues along the St. Lawrence Seaway, further strain its position, affecting prices across related markets.
• Russia's Bashkorea region reported a 47 percent increase in canola oil exports to China, aligning with Israel’s broader export growth targets. In Ukraine, rapeseed prices have fluctuated, with some processors adjusting prices due to stock levels and alternative crop strategies, while others capitalized on profitable margins.
• Pakistan’s authorization of genetically modified canola imports from Australia marks a significant policy shift, building on last year's non-GMO exports valued at over $500 million. This development could broaden Australia’s market access and strengthen its role in global agricultural trade.

The discussion begins by exploring a major long-term issue: aging oil palm plantations in Southeast Asia. Palm oil yields typically peak between years 9 and 18, after which productivity declines sharply, especially as trees grow too tall to harvest efficiently. In Malaysia, over 27 percent of plantations are now over 20 years old, while in Indonesia, a similar trend is emerging, particularly among smallholders. These older trees are not only harder to manage but have become a major source of lost output. Between 2009 and 2022, aging palms were responsible for nearly $4 billion in cumulative losses in Malaysia alone, surpassing losses from climatic events like droughts or El Niño.

Despite widespread recognition of the issue, replanting efforts are failing to keep pace. The core challenge lies in the financial burden: replanting costs can exceed $3,000 per hectare, and more critically, farmers must endure three to four years without income during the trees’ non-productive phase. While large corporations can stagger replanting, smallholders often cannot afford the income gap, leading to chronic underinvestment. In Malaysia, only 0.2 percent of smallholder plantations are being replanted annually, far below the recommended 4 to 5 percent. Indonesia’s replanting targets are similarly off-track, with only 10 percent of the 2.5 million hectare goal achieved by late 2024.

Simultaneously, demand is being driven sharply upward by Indonesia’s biofuels policy. The country has rapidly escalated its biodiesel mandates from B30 in 2020 to a planned B40 in 2025, which will require an additional 3 million tons of palm oil annually. This initiative ensures a large, guaranteed domestic market for palm oil, effectively putting a floor under prices. However, it comes at a high cost: subsidizing the price gap between palm-based biodiesel and conventional diesel could require more than $5 billion per year from Indonesia’s state budget, making the policy vulnerable to swings in global crude oil prices.

The interaction between these supply and demand forces is already evident in the market. Palm oil, traditionally the cheapest vegetable oil, began trading at a premium to soybean oil in late 2024-a sign of structural tightness. As palm oil is more than seven times more land-efficient than soy, the shortfall cannot be easily addressed by shifting to other oil crops. This implies a sustained period of tighter supply and higher prices across the global vegetable oil market.

The episode concludes with a stark environmental warning. If replanting continues to lag, smallholders may abandon declining lands and resort to illegal deforestation in search of more fertile ground. In contrast, well-supported replanting with modern, high-yield seedlings could improve sustainability and productivity without expanding farmland. The policy decisions made today around subsidies and farmer support will have lasting consequences not only for global food prices, but also for environmental outcomes in the decade ahead.

This episode provides a focused update on the global canola market as of November 16, 2025

• Germany has expanded its winter rapeseed cultivation to between 1.1 and 1.15 million hectares, an increase of up to 60,000 hectares since 2025. This growth is driven by favorable yields from the prior year and beneficial weather in late summer. While overall crop health is reported as good to excellent, pest management challenges have emerged due to rising resistance in rapeseed weevils, prompting calls for faster registration of new crop protection products. Despite isolated reseeding requirements, high harvest expectations for 2026 persist, assuming adequate rainfall and sunshine.
• In Russia, winter rapeseed sowing has exceeded expectations, reaching 764,000 hectares, a year-over-year increase of 58,000 hectares. Notable growth occurred in the Central Federal District, which reported a 12 percent rise in planted area since 2024.
• Pakistan’s approval of genetically modified canola imports marks a significant advancement for international trade. The move, celebrated by Grain Trade Australia and the Australian Oilseeds Federation, opens expanded access for Australian exporters. Annual canola imports into Pakistan have surpassed 500,000 tons over the past five years. This regulatory change coincides with a slight increase in Australia’s canola production forecast to 6.4 million tons, supporting market stability. However, specific import procedures for genetically modified canola are still being finalized.
• Canada continues to face export difficulties with China due to retaliatory duties tied to political tensions. China’s block on Canadian canola followed Canada’s imposition of high tariffs on Chinese electric vehicles. This trade barrier has disrupted a bilateral trade relationship valued at over 4.9 billion Canadian dollars. Although diplomatic discussions are ongoing, full market access has yet to be restored.
• In Ukraine, sowing conditions in the Odessa region have been favorable. Canola planting is nearly complete, and winter wheat and barley sowing has reached 67 percent of targeted areas. Seed germination and early growth have benefited from optimal weather. Nonetheless, Ukraine’s rapeseed exports from July to October 2025 dropped by 54 percent compared to the previous year, largely due to increased domestic processing and supply shifts. This decline is expected to moderate as Canadian canola volumes rise and internal Ukrainian use continues to evolve.

This episode delivers a detailed overview of the global sunflower market.

• Kazakhstan has emerged as a leader in sunflower seed production, achieving profitability rates above 96 percent. This growth is attributed to expanding exports, particularly to China and the Middle East. The country also reported a record grain yield of over 27 million tons in 2025, significantly broadening its export network to nearly 50 countries. These accomplishments were underscored at the Global Grain Geneva 2025 event, where Kazakhstan's role in the global food ecosystem was reaffirmed.
• Ukraine’s Agrain Group harvested sunflower crops across major regions despite facing adverse weather. Covering 13,000 hectares, the group achieved yields above the national average. Operations now shift toward corn and preparations for the 2026 season, illustrating a proactive strategic approach.
• The Black Sea and Danube regions remain critical to global sunflower oil trends. Although the cultivated area increased by 8 percent, unfavorable weather led to a projected harvest decline to approximately 35 million metric tons. Southern Russia experienced reduced outputs, while central and northern areas partially offset the shortfall. Northern and western Ukraine saw notable setbacks. Reduced processing volumes have kept global sunflower oil prices high.
• Global market volatility is further driven by limited seed crushing capacity in Ukraine and persistent supply constraints. Prices remained elevated in September and October due to poor harvests and low inventories, with processing rates expected to trail historical norms through year-end. Argentina may offer some relief in 2026 through higher sales and exports. However, consumption could remain subdued due to below average stock levels. Additionally, India’s halt in sunflower oil purchases has contributed to declining global prices, disrupting market dynamics.
• In Russia, the Saratov region recorded a 2 million ton harvest, leading the Volga Federal District. Strong yields in Kalininsky and Arkadak underscore effective agricultural practices. Saratov plans to expand sunflower cultivation to 1.6 million hectares by 2025, indicating continued growth potential.

This episode delivers a comprehensive summary of the global palm oil market as of November 16, 2025.

• Malaysia’s palm oil sector is undergoing notable changes. While production is set to grow—reaching over 20 million tons in 2025—futures prices have declined due to subdued demand and a strong ringgit. Stockpiles surged to a six-and-a-half-year peak following eight consecutive months of increases. October saw a sharp 18.58 percent export rise and an 11.2 percent boost in output, reflecting renewed export momentum. To improve long-term competitiveness, Malaysia is replanting aging plantations and offering financial support to smallholders. Despite currency and inventory challenges, government forecasts anticipate steady production growth supported by favorable weather and enhanced labor availability.
• In India, palm oil imports have dropped to a five-year low as buyers shift toward more competitively priced alternatives like soybean oil. October recorded a 27.6 percent decrease in palm oil imports, while soybean oil imports surged by 61.6 percent. Sunflower oil imports also fell, resulting in a 20.7 percent decline in India’s total vegetable oil imports for the month. Nonetheless, India’s total edible oil imports slightly increased by 0.3 percent year over year, maintaining its status as the leading global vegetable oil buyer.
• Globally, Malaysia and Indonesia continue to dominate palm oil production, significantly influencing market trends. Although Malaysia faces headwinds from currency valuation and pricing pressure, domestic policy measures and growing export demand suggest potential for future expansion.

This episode examines the latest trends in the global sunflower market.

• The European Union forecasts sunflower seed production at approximately 8.5 million tons for 2025, reflecting a 3% increase over the previous year. This rise occurs despite a slight reduction in sown areas to just under 4.8 million hectares. While average yields have improved to 18 centners per hectare from 17.4 last year, they remain below the long-term average of 20.1. Romania and Hungary continue to lead production, expecting harvests of 1.7 million and 1.8 million tons respectively. Germany has significantly expanded its planted areas to 61,000 hectares, nearly doubling since 2022, and is forecasted to produce 150,000 tons.
• In contrast, France faces continued declines. Production is expected to fall below 1.5 million tons, exacerbated by prolonged drought, high temperatures, and a 9% reduction in sown areas. This keeps output well below the typical average of 1.8 million tons.
• Kyrgyzstan's sunflower seed exports have surged, reaching 1,900 tons in the first eight months of 2025, a 6.5-fold increase year-over-year. However, this export growth has come with a sharp price drop from $1.68 per kilogram in 2023 to just $0.40 in 2025, potentially challenging long-term profitability.
• Globally, sunflower seed prices climbed to 28,000 Ukrainian hryvnia per ton by late October, even as harvests progressed slowly. Yield improvements to 1.88 tons per hectare have sparked some optimism. At the same time, adjustments in the broader oil market could limit further price increases. Expanded global sown areas, now totaling more than 5.2 million hectares, point to a strategic push to strengthen production capacity and reshape market balance.