This episode provides a focused update on the global canola market as of November 16, 2025

• Germany has expanded its winter rapeseed cultivation to between 1.1 and 1.15 million hectares, an increase of up to 60,000 hectares since 2025. This growth is driven by favorable yields from the prior year and beneficial weather in late summer. While overall crop health is reported as good to excellent, pest management challenges have emerged due to rising resistance in rapeseed weevils, prompting calls for faster registration of new crop protection products. Despite isolated reseeding requirements, high harvest expectations for 2026 persist, assuming adequate rainfall and sunshine.
• In Russia, winter rapeseed sowing has exceeded expectations, reaching 764,000 hectares, a year-over-year increase of 58,000 hectares. Notable growth occurred in the Central Federal District, which reported a 12 percent rise in planted area since 2024.
• Pakistan’s approval of genetically modified canola imports marks a significant advancement for international trade. The move, celebrated by Grain Trade Australia and the Australian Oilseeds Federation, opens expanded access for Australian exporters. Annual canola imports into Pakistan have surpassed 500,000 tons over the past five years. This regulatory change coincides with a slight increase in Australia’s canola production forecast to 6.4 million tons, supporting market stability. However, specific import procedures for genetically modified canola are still being finalized.
• Canada continues to face export difficulties with China due to retaliatory duties tied to political tensions. China’s block on Canadian canola followed Canada’s imposition of high tariffs on Chinese electric vehicles. This trade barrier has disrupted a bilateral trade relationship valued at over 4.9 billion Canadian dollars. Although diplomatic discussions are ongoing, full market access has yet to be restored.
• In Ukraine, sowing conditions in the Odessa region have been favorable. Canola planting is nearly complete, and winter wheat and barley sowing has reached 67 percent of targeted areas. Seed germination and early growth have benefited from optimal weather. Nonetheless, Ukraine’s rapeseed exports from July to October 2025 dropped by 54 percent compared to the previous year, largely due to increased domestic processing and supply shifts. This decline is expected to moderate as Canadian canola volumes rise and internal Ukrainian use continues to evolve.

This episode delivers a detailed overview of the global sunflower market.

• Kazakhstan has emerged as a leader in sunflower seed production, achieving profitability rates above 96 percent. This growth is attributed to expanding exports, particularly to China and the Middle East. The country also reported a record grain yield of over 27 million tons in 2025, significantly broadening its export network to nearly 50 countries. These accomplishments were underscored at the Global Grain Geneva 2025 event, where Kazakhstan's role in the global food ecosystem was reaffirmed.
• Ukraine’s Agrain Group harvested sunflower crops across major regions despite facing adverse weather. Covering 13,000 hectares, the group achieved yields above the national average. Operations now shift toward corn and preparations for the 2026 season, illustrating a proactive strategic approach.
• The Black Sea and Danube regions remain critical to global sunflower oil trends. Although the cultivated area increased by 8 percent, unfavorable weather led to a projected harvest decline to approximately 35 million metric tons. Southern Russia experienced reduced outputs, while central and northern areas partially offset the shortfall. Northern and western Ukraine saw notable setbacks. Reduced processing volumes have kept global sunflower oil prices high.
• Global market volatility is further driven by limited seed crushing capacity in Ukraine and persistent supply constraints. Prices remained elevated in September and October due to poor harvests and low inventories, with processing rates expected to trail historical norms through year-end. Argentina may offer some relief in 2026 through higher sales and exports. However, consumption could remain subdued due to below average stock levels. Additionally, India’s halt in sunflower oil purchases has contributed to declining global prices, disrupting market dynamics.
• In Russia, the Saratov region recorded a 2 million ton harvest, leading the Volga Federal District. Strong yields in Kalininsky and Arkadak underscore effective agricultural practices. Saratov plans to expand sunflower cultivation to 1.6 million hectares by 2025, indicating continued growth potential.

This episode delivers a comprehensive summary of the global palm oil market as of November 16, 2025.

• Malaysia’s palm oil sector is undergoing notable changes. While production is set to grow—reaching over 20 million tons in 2025—futures prices have declined due to subdued demand and a strong ringgit. Stockpiles surged to a six-and-a-half-year peak following eight consecutive months of increases. October saw a sharp 18.58 percent export rise and an 11.2 percent boost in output, reflecting renewed export momentum. To improve long-term competitiveness, Malaysia is replanting aging plantations and offering financial support to smallholders. Despite currency and inventory challenges, government forecasts anticipate steady production growth supported by favorable weather and enhanced labor availability.
• In India, palm oil imports have dropped to a five-year low as buyers shift toward more competitively priced alternatives like soybean oil. October recorded a 27.6 percent decrease in palm oil imports, while soybean oil imports surged by 61.6 percent. Sunflower oil imports also fell, resulting in a 20.7 percent decline in India’s total vegetable oil imports for the month. Nonetheless, India’s total edible oil imports slightly increased by 0.3 percent year over year, maintaining its status as the leading global vegetable oil buyer.
• Globally, Malaysia and Indonesia continue to dominate palm oil production, significantly influencing market trends. Although Malaysia faces headwinds from currency valuation and pricing pressure, domestic policy measures and growing export demand suggest potential for future expansion.

This episode examines the latest trends in the global sunflower market.

• The European Union forecasts sunflower seed production at approximately 8.5 million tons for 2025, reflecting a 3% increase over the previous year. This rise occurs despite a slight reduction in sown areas to just under 4.8 million hectares. While average yields have improved to 18 centners per hectare from 17.4 last year, they remain below the long-term average of 20.1. Romania and Hungary continue to lead production, expecting harvests of 1.7 million and 1.8 million tons respectively. Germany has significantly expanded its planted areas to 61,000 hectares, nearly doubling since 2022, and is forecasted to produce 150,000 tons.
• In contrast, France faces continued declines. Production is expected to fall below 1.5 million tons, exacerbated by prolonged drought, high temperatures, and a 9% reduction in sown areas. This keeps output well below the typical average of 1.8 million tons.
• Kyrgyzstan's sunflower seed exports have surged, reaching 1,900 tons in the first eight months of 2025, a 6.5-fold increase year-over-year. However, this export growth has come with a sharp price drop from $1.68 per kilogram in 2023 to just $0.40 in 2025, potentially challenging long-term profitability.
• Globally, sunflower seed prices climbed to 28,000 Ukrainian hryvnia per ton by late October, even as harvests progressed slowly. Yield improvements to 1.88 tons per hectare have sparked some optimism. At the same time, adjustments in the broader oil market could limit further price increases. Expanded global sown areas, now totaling more than 5.2 million hectares, point to a strategic push to strengthen production capacity and reshape market balance.

This episode highlights major developments in the global canola market.

• Australia has resumed canola exports to China for the first time in five years, marking a significant diplomatic and trade milestone following a suspension over phytosanitary concerns. The vessel Armonia A is currently loading approximately 60,000 tons of canola at Esperance for delivery to Qingdao. This shift is influenced by deteriorating China-Canada relations and is backed by strict contamination testing standards and ongoing negotiations aimed at strengthening agricultural ties.
• India is witnessing record high rapeseed plantings, supported by favorable weather and strong Chinese demand for rapeseed meal. Sown areas are projected to increase by 7% to 8% this year. With India being the largest global consumer of edible oils, this surge is expected to enhance domestic production and reduce reliance on expensive imports. The minimum support price for rapeseed has been raised by 4.2% to INR 6,200 per 100 kilograms, encouraging farmers. Rapeseed meal exports to China have reached a record 488,168 metric tons in the fiscal year's first half.
• Pakistan has reopened its market to Canadian canola after a three-year suspension, a development that provides relief for Canada following the loss of access to the Chinese market. Canada previously exported up to 1.35 million tons annually to Pakistan. New regulations now allow genetically modified crops for consumption, opening avenues for Canadian exporters to reestablish and expand market share.
• In the United Kingdom, rapeseed plantings are projected to fall sharply to 240,000 hectares, potentially yielding just 720,000 tons. This decline is due to poor yields and adverse weather, increasing the UK’s reliance on imports, particularly from the EU and Ukraine. As domestic supply contracts, demand for rapeseed meal, oil, and soybean meal is expected to rise amid a recovering livestock sector.
• Meanwhile, Canada is facing a sharp decline in canola exports, down 57% from the previous season. Broader grain exports have also fallen, including an 18% drop in peas and a 1% dip in durum wheat. Canadian farmers are grappling with lower commodity prices and high input costs.

This episode provides a detailed analysis of the global palm oil market.

• Malaysian palm oil futures have rebounded after reaching a 17-week low, with the benchmark January contract rising by RM29 to RM444 per metric ton. This recovery is influenced by movements in global edible oil markets. Previously, stable production levels and profit taking had driven prices down. Looking ahead, Malaysia projects a two-year high in palm oil inventory, reaching approximately 2.44 million metric tons due to production surpassing export demand.
• India, a major consumer, continues to reduce its palm oil imports, a trend impacting Malaysian futures. While specific figures are limited, this reduced demand adds pressure to Malaysian supply chains. In Brazil, there is a strategic push to increase domestic palm oil production and reduce import reliance, which currently accounts for 60% of national consumption. In Pará, the company Denpaso is leading this effort through advanced processing infrastructure and the cultivation of disease-resistant hybrid palms, which may yield 8 to 10 tons per hectare. The strategy also integrates family farming to boost rural household income.
• Since 2019, Denpaso has produced about 500,000 hybrid seedlings annually, and despite challenges like disease and land disputes, its partnerships with local communities present a scalable model for Brazil’s palm oil sector. Meanwhile, India’s palm oil imports fell sharply in October 2025 to 750,000 metric tons from 980,000 the previous month. This five-month low results from high global prices, muted festival demand, and high port inventories. A pivot toward cheaper alternatives like soybean and sunflower oils has contributed to a 16% year-over-year decline in palm oil imports.
• These consumption patterns in major markets like India are exerting downward pressure on the global palm oil industry. At the same time, environmental and transparency issues persist. As COP30 talks approach, sustainability and deforestation remain top concerns. Only half of the leading palm oil producers, processors, and traders publicly disclose deforestation monitoring measures. While more companies are committing to zero deforestation, weak supply chain traceability continues to hamper progress, threatening both market confidence and environmental health. These developments underscore the need for more sustainable and transparent industry practices.

This episode covers major developments in the global canola market.

• Canada is on track for record-high canola production in 2025, projected between 21.1 and 21.6 million tons, exceeding initial government estimates. Exceptional yields across Western Canada, aided by favorable weather, have driven this surge. However, Canadian exports face serious headwinds: China has imposed steep tariffs (75.8% on seed and 100% on oil and meal), significantly cutting access to one of Canada's primary markets. Strained U.S. trade relations have also encouraged Canadian producers to explore alternative markets and expand domestic biofuel initiatives.
• China’s imports of Canadian canola are projected to decline by one million tons to 3.1 million tons for 2025–2026, as the country pivots toward Australian supply following relaxed phytosanitary restrictions. Yet, China’s overall demand remains strong due to its own underperforming harvest, which fell to 12.4 million tons.
• Australia, meanwhile, has seen a 60% drop in canola exports due to tight domestic supply and a halt in shipments to the European Union. However, exports to China are recovering. The 2025–2026 harvest is forecast between 6.1 and 6.4 million tons, limited by dry conditions. In Brazil, canola production has grown rapidly, with acreage expanding 43% and output rising 58% to 309,000 tons, spurred by biofuel demand and supportive policies in regions like Rio Grande do Sul.
• South Africa’s canola production rose by 7% despite early pest challenges, with improved late-season weather and adaptive farming practices supporting its goal of becoming a net exporter. In Ukraine, focus has shifted to domestic rapeseed processing due to new tariffs and logistical issues, pushing prices higher. Russia, on the other hand, has increased rapeseed oil exports, particularly to China and Tunisia, following a strong production season.
• Kazakhstan has reached record rapeseed acreage and production levels in 2025 and completed its first direct exports to China, benefiting from favorable conditions. In Europe, countries like Bulgaria are transitioning from raw seed exports to biodiesel production, responding to EU energy directives and stronger processing margins. Germany and Moldova are also shifting toward value-added rapeseed processing, aligning with broader regional sustainability goals.

This week’s episode offers a comprehensive look at the shifting landscape of the global palm oil market.

• In Malaysia, palm oil prices fluctuated throughout October, influenced by inconsistent global market signals and volatile crude oil prices. Declining demand from India and rising domestic stocks, now at a two-year high, added pressure to the market. A strengthening ringgit further challenged export competitiveness. Despite these factors, exports grew by 12% month over month, driven by increased shipments to the European Union, Pakistan, and Nigeria, even as exports to China fell. Domestic production slightly declined due to aging plantations, labor shortages, and pest issues. Nonetheless, progress in sustainable certification and a reduction in U.S. tariffs (from 25% to 19%) are expected to enhance market access.
• Indonesia anticipates a 10% rise in palm oil production, supported by favorable weather and improved plantation practices. The expansion supports both export growth and increased allocation to the domestic biodiesel program. However, potential export restrictions and domestic market obligations could impact global availability. Meanwhile, India is experiencing a shift in edible oil consumption patterns, with soy oil gaining market share due to cost advantages. The government is actively promoting domestic oil palm cultivation under the National Mission on Edible Oils to reduce import dependency.
• Thailand’s palm oil sector is seeing strong recovery, highlighted by record exports following the removal of restrictions. India continues to be a major destination, bolstering Thailand's standing in the Southeast Asian market. In Cameroon, domestic production is improving but still falls short of demand, necessitating significant imports. National initiatives like InterPalm CAM aim to enhance self-sufficiency, though broader strategies are needed to ensure long-term supply stability.

This episode provides a global overview of the sunflower market as of November 2025.

• Turkey's domestic sunflower production fell short at 1.1 million tons for the 2024-2025 season, prompting increased imports of raw seeds now totaling 800,000 tons. Adjusted import duties (12% for seeds, 30% for crude oil) contributed to a 13% decline in sunflower oil imports, primarily due to reduced shipments from Ukraine as competitively priced Russian oil gained favor. In August alone, Turkey imported 71,000 tons of sunflower oil, mostly from Russia.
• China has continued its downward trend in sunflower oil imports, recording a 58.9% drop in 2025 following a 28.2% decline in 2024. By early 2025, purchases had fallen to 273,800 tons, with Russia accounting for more than half. The downturn is linked to weakening consumer demand and a 19.9% year-over-year reduction in import costs.
• The European Union forecasts 10.4 million tons in sunflower production for the 2025-2026 season. However, the crop's competitiveness has diminished due to more favorable rapeseed conditions in countries like Romania and Poland. A regional oil surplus has further pressured sunflower oil prices.
• Kazakhstan emerged as a top 10 global sunflower oil exporter in 2025, supported by a February 2023 export duty regime that boosted both output and trade volume. Argentina also saw strong growth, with sunflower oil exports reaching 590,000 tons in Q3 2025—up from 380,000 tons the previous year—largely driven by Indian demand. Sunflower meal exports reached a 25-year high, reinforcing Argentina’s expanding agricultural influence.
• In the United States, regenerative sunflower farming is gaining momentum, particularly in Southern Minnesota, where practices combine soil health improvements with commercial goals. In South Australia, sunflower fields are becoming an agritourism attraction, signaling potential for alternative revenue streams even as hard data on yields remains limited.

This episode presents an in-depth summary of the global palm oil market.

• Malaysian palm oil futures for January delivery fell by RM51, settling at RM4000.20 per metric ton, marking a second consecutive weekly decline of 2.06 percent. The market remains cautious, trading between RM4,400 and RM4,500 amid uncertainty and a lack of new drivers. Slight strength in the ringgit and limited influence from other vegetable oils have contributed to this stagnation.
• Malaysia’s September palm oil exports rose 7.7 percent to 1.42 million tons, largely driven by demand from India. However, stocks remain at a 22-month high, reflecting ample supply. Indian imports of Malaysian palm oil surged to 312,000 tons in September, the highest in nearly a year, influenced by tightening global vegetable oil supplies and potential biofuel policy changes in Indonesia that may restrict future availability.
• Despite palm oil now being priced higher than soybean oil, India remains the world’s top edible oil importer. Rising palm oil costs may impact consumption patterns, but strong demand is expected to continue.
• Looking ahead, cooking oil prices are projected to rise through 2026 due to constrained global supplies and expanding biofuel mandates. Ghana is pushing forward with a national oil palm plantation initiative aimed at reducing import dependence and creating over 500,000 jobs by 2026. The plan includes distributing 1.5 million seedlings and improving oil extraction processes.
• Indonesia's proposed B50 biodiesel mandate would raise domestic palm oil use to 17 million tons annually, up 3 million tons from the current B40 policy. This change is expected to tighten export availability, historically between 24 and 28 million tons, and maintain elevated global prices. Broader market pricing is also influenced by competing vegetable oil prices and crude oil trends. Weaker crude prices could reduce palm oil’s attractiveness as a biodiesel input, adding further complexity to market conditions.