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In this new episode, Matthew sits down with Joe Consorti, the head of growth at Thayer and one of the few macro analysts who accurately mapped the 2022 Bitcoin bottom, to unpack why Bitcoin’s current drop isn’t signalling what most retail investors think it is.
What you’ll learn:
◼️ Why Bitcoin bottoms take time and how the 12–16 month cycle window works
◼️ The importance of the 200‑week moving average and why BTC often finds its floor within 5–10% of it
◼️ How whales, long‑term holders and ETFs are signalling that the bottom is close
◼️ Why smart money increases accumulation before the bottom, not at the exact low
◼️ The strategy Joe recommends for navigating volatility with confidence
Timestamps:
00:00:00 - Introduction
00:01:02 - Is the Bitcoin Low In?
00:01:13 - Factors Influencing Bitcoin Bottoms
00:02:06 - Timing the Bitcoin Bottom
00:02:37 - 200-Week Moving Average
00:03:09 - Historical Context of Bitcoin Bottoms
00:04:02 - Impact of FTX Collapse
00:04:49 - Potential for Another Leg Down
00:05:00 - Four-Year Cycle and Bitcoin Halving
00:06:17 - Supply Shock and Market Psychology
00:07:09 - Predictability of Bitcoin Cycles
00:08:32 - Long-Term Holder Realized Price
00:09:25 - Smart Money and Long-Term Holders
00:10:53 - Historical Ranging Periods
00:12:07 - Expected Bottom Range
00:13:00 - Whale Accumulation
00:14:07 - Whale and Long-Term Holder Behavior
00:15:09 - Largest Ever Whale Accumulation
00:16:03 - Long-Term Holder Net Position Change
00:17:58 - Spot Bitcoin ETF Inflows
00:18:41 - ETF Buying Behavior
00:20:17 - ETF Outflows and Inflows
00:21:09 - Three Major On-Chain Signals
00:22:01 - Smart Money Accumulation Strategy
00:23:08 - Timing the Bottom
00:24:00 - Dollar Cost Averaging (DCA) Strategy
00:25:16 - Investment Strategy for Large Sums
00:27:08 - Decision Matrix for Allocation
00:28:19 - Long-Term Perspective on Bitcoin Price
00:28:46 - Potential Positive Black Swan Events
00:29:29 - Geopolitical Game of Bitcoin Accumulation
00:30:36 - US Strategic Bitcoin Reserve
00:31:47 - Global Trust and Bitcoin
00:32:33 - BRICS Nations and Bitcoin
00:33:44 - Bitcoin Arms Race
00:34:47 - US Military and Bitcoin
00:35:08 - Introduction to Hard Money Room
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**DISCLAIMER**
This is not financial, investment, tax, or legal advice. I'm not a licensed advisor. Bitcoin and SMSF strategies can carry significant risks; consult a qualified tax accountant and SMSF specialist before making any decisions. I may earn affiliate commissions from links I share, but this doesn't affect your cost.
