Investing in cryptocurrency is a dangerous endeavour - all the more so when you're wagering on a country's future. Nonetheless, it is a risk that El Salvador's president is eager to take.
Nayib Bukele's bitcoin spending spree has been welcomed by crypto enthusiasts but slammed in the traditional financial world.
The IMF has been one of his most strident critics. The International Monetary Fund has frequently pressed El Salvador to reconsider Bitcoin's legal status – much to Bukele's consternation.
Here is a brief history of the lender's dispute with the Central American country.
El Salvador seeks IMF money in March 2021
Days after Bukele's ruling party secured a resounding election victory, a government official tells Reuters that El Salvador has requested $1.3 billion in IMF financing.
Finance Minister Alejandro Zelaya believes the agreement will assist in bridging fiscal shortfalls and lowering the country's debt-related costs.
The IMF had already made an emergency loan to El Salvador to assist with the 2020 epidemic, as it had done for a number of other nations.
Analysts fear that bitcoin will jeopardise an IMF deal in June 2021.
Bukele intends to legalise bitcoin as a form of payment in El Salvador.
Proponents argue that the move will benefit Salvadorans without bank accounts, make remittances more efficient, spur economic development, and lessen the country's dependency on global financial institutions.
The suggestion, however, raises questions about the IMF pact.
Siobhan Morden, an analyst at Amherst Pierpoint Securities and head of Latin America fixed-income strategy, believes Bukele's remarks regarding bitcoin could derail the negotiations:
This could be a long-term endeavour or a showy public relations stunt; yet, it demonstrates a lack of coordination through rash pronouncements that contradict a coherent economic plan.
Congress approves a bitcoin law in June 2021
El Salvador's Congress endorses Bukele's proposal to adopt bitcoin.
In 90 days, the digital asset will become legal money alongside the US dollar. The exchange rate between bitcoin and dollars will be determined by the market.
July 2021: The International Monetary Fund (IMF) advises against the use of cryptocurrency as legal cash.
The IMF warns countries against utilising cryptocurrencies as legal money, as El Salvador prepares to do. The lender asserts that the measure could jeopardise the lender's financial stability and integrity.
According to the FT, Ricardo Castaneda, senior economist and El Salvador coordinator at the Icefi think tank, Bukelele's ambitions could affect relations with the IMF:
I believe they did not consider all of the ramifications. It is a test. It will be interesting to watch whether or not it works, but the ramifications are severe if it does not.
Bitcoin adoption occurs in September 2021.
El Salvador is the first country in the world to legalise bitcoin as a form of payment.
Citizens will be able to use the cryptocurrency to make purchases, pay taxes, and send remittances as a result of this action. Additionally, a new digital payment method is launched – the Chivo e-wallet. Citizens who download the app will be rewarded with a $30 gift card.
The initial rollout is beset by technical difficulties, protests, and a poor rate of adoption. Critics believe the decision will further deepen the country's debt crisis.
A day before the law takes effect, Bukele purchases additional bitcoin following a price drop attributed to the IMF.
Not all of his attempts to acquire the dip, however, are precisely timed.
October 2021: Bitcoin is positioned as a positive factor in the IMF pact
El Salvador's central bank president maintains that adopting bitcoin will not obstruct negotiations with the IMF.
Rather than that, he argues, the talks will centre on the project's benefits.
We do not perceive any dangers. Perhaps there are downside risks. Bitcoin will evolve into a payment system, a financial inclusion tool.
November 2021: Bukele announces the creation of a 'Bitcoin City' and a 'Bitcoin Bond; the IMF offers another warning.
Bukele presents plans for the world's first "Bitcoin City" at a ceremony in the seaside resort of Mizata.
The 40-year-old, wearing his signature backwards baseball cap, informs the crowd that the city would be erected near Venezuela's Conchagua volcano.
The volcano would generate geothermal energy for the city as well as Bitcoin mining. According to Bukele, revenue will come from a sales tax and a $1 billion issuance of sovereign bonds backed by Bitcoin.
The $1 billion in bonds will be used to fund the construction of energy and mining infrastructure. The remainder of the funds will be invested in bitcoin.
The announcement coincides with the IMF's initial conclusions following a visit to El Salvador.
The message cautions the country to exercise caution when it comes to bitcoin:
Recently announced plans to invest in bitcoin using proceeds from new sovereign bond issuances, as well as the consequences of more widespread bitcoin trading, will necessitate a very thorough review of the implications for, and potential risks to, financial stability.
Bukele emphasises the positive. He points out that the IMF's report lavishes praise on his government.
January 2022: The International Monetary Fund (IMF) advises El Salvador to discontinue the use of bitcoin as legal money.
The International Monetary Fund concluded a conversation with El Salvador by recommending the country to "delete Bitcoin's legal tender status."
The fund's directors emphasise the "significant dangers connected with bitcoin use on financial stability, financial integrity, and consumer protection" in a statement. Additionally, they express concern about the dangers inherent in the issuance of bitcoin-backed bonds.
Bukele reacts with a meme, which fits his image as an edgelord.
The IMF appears unlikely to give finance without modifications, but Buekele shows no indications of relenting. Their standoff is likely to persist until bitcoin hits a critical tipping point.