Crypto Voices

By Matthew MezinskisSociety & Culture

Crypto Voices episodes

April 03, 2023 PE51: The Fed, the Discount rate, and the Great Depression (VI)
Check out show sponsor Coinkite: https://coinkite.com/
Donations to Porkopolis Economics via BTCPay appreciated: https://donations.porkopolis.io/
This is the fifty-first video installment from Porkopolis Economics, covering macro and money, from the creator of the Crypto Voices podcast.
Contents
00:00 Intro
01:00 What does the central bank do?
01:40 How do Fed interest rates compare with history?
03:13 Is the interest rate the price of money?
05:47 Centralized control of interest rates
06:30 Roaring 20s and Great Depression
06:45 Why the 'Discount rate?'
09:12 What does the 'Discount rate' mean in Fed-speak?
09:59 'Discount window' was Fed lending directly until 1930s
11:55 Discount rate during Roaring 20s
13:36 Wisdom from Oskar Morgenstern on prices
15:10 Irving Fisher on Stable Money League
16:25 Discount rate into Depression of 1920-21
18:25 Discount rate lowers into Roaring 20s
20:50 Interest rates at near-historical highs into Great Depression
Here we look at the Federal Reserve's weekly balance sheet versus its base policy interest rate in the 1910s and 1920s, which is called the 'Discount rate.' In the early days, this was the rate of interest that banks could get for borrowing directly from the Federal Reserve (and not just in emergency situations, as is the case today), called the 'Discount window.' Many banks directly borrowed from the Federal Reserve in the 1910s and 1920s.
We also answer some basic questions like:
- What is the price of money?
- What is the price of credit?
- What is the etymology of 'Discount rate?'
- How did the Federal Reserve manipulate interest rates in the early days?
- Have stocks reached a permanently high plateau?
https://porkopolis.io
https://twitter.com/crypto_voices
Show content is not investment or financial advice in any way.
23 min
March 31, 2023 PE50: How much money does the US Treasury have? (V)
Check out show sponsor Coinkite: https://coinkite.com/
Donations to Porkopolis Economics via BTCPay appreciated: https://donations.porkopolis.io/
This is the fiftieth video installment from Porkopolis Economics, covering macro and money, from the creator of the Crypto Voices podcast.
Contents
00:00 Intro
00:58 Weekly balance sheet update
03:30 To be clear: Base money is Notes + Bank reserves
05:50 Treasury general account (an 'other' Fed deposit)
10:50 TGA during covid pandemic
14:10 Treasury doesn't influence monetary policy... right?
22:04 Brief review of (non-bank) Reverse repo facility
25:20 Final review of the Fed's four main liabilities
Here we look at the 108 year, 5,655 week history of the Federal Reserve and its balance sheet. In this one we are looking specifically at the 'Treasury General Account;' that is, how much money does the US Treasury actually have in its bank account!
https://porkopolis.io
https://twitter.com/crypto_voices
Show content is not investment or financial advice in any way.
27 min
March 30, 2023 PE49: What is a 'Reverse Repo?' (IV)
Check out show sponsor Coinkite: https://coinkite.com/
Donations to Porkopolis Economics via BTCPay appreciated: https://donations.porkopolis.io/
This is the forty-ninth video installment from Porkopolis Economics, covering macro and money, from the creator of the Crypto Voices podcast.
Contents
00:00 Intro
01:50 Monetary base review
02:20 Notes % of balance sheet
07:44 Liability three: Reverse repo facility
08:56 Reverse repo % of balance sheet
09:10 History of Fed publication data
11:33 What are reverse repos?
11:55 Review of notes and reserves vs. Total assets
13:35 Reverse repo % of balance sheet (again)
16:32 Difference between 'repo' and 'reverse repo'
22:16 We need to dig deeper into banking history & legislation!
Here we look at the 108 year, 5,654 week history of the Federal Reserve and its balance sheet. In this one we are looking specifically at the 'reverse repo' facility for non-banks, and how it has grown over the last 20 years.
https://porkopolis.io
https://twitter.com/crypto_voices
Show content is not investment or financial advice in any way.
25 min
March 29, 2023 PE48: What does 'Printing Money' really look like? (III)
Check out show sponsor Coinkite: https://coinkite.com/
Donations to Porkopolis Economics via BTCPay appreciated: https://donations.porkopolis.io/
This is the forty-eighth video installment from Porkopolis Economics, covering macro and money, from the creator of the Crypto Voices podcast.
Contents
00:00 Intro
01:15 What is the printing press?
03:03 Liability one: Notes
07:15 Liability two: Reserves
11:39 How big is the Notes % of Base money?
12:59 What about coins?
Here we look at the 108 year, 5,654 week history of the Federal Reserve and its balance sheet. Building on the last couple videos, in this one we're drilling down into central bank liabilities, which is where the 'Base money' is located. Specifically, there are two types of central bank money that make up the Monetary base; the first is notes (and coins), and the second is bank reserves.
https://porkopolis.io
https://twitter.com/crypto_voices
Show content is not investment or financial advice in any way.
17 min
March 28, 2023 PE47: How fast does the money printer go brrr... really? (II)
Check out show sponsor Coinkite: https://coinkite.com/
Donations to Porkopolis Economics via BTCPay appreciated: https://donations.porkopolis.io/
This is the forty-seventh video installment from Porkopolis Economics, covering macro and money, from the creator of the Crypto Voices podcast.
Contents
00:00 Intro
00:47 Small numbers long ago, vs. big numbers now?
03:28 All-time trendline
04:50 Pre-2008 trendline
09:00 Post-2007 trendline
13:00 Always comes back to compound growth rate
13:30 Fed balance sheet CAGR
14:25 Rule of 72 (Easiest way to doubling time!)
17:43 All-time trendline CAGR
20:58 Pre-2008 trendline CAGR
21:50 Post-2007 trendline CAGR
Here we look at the 108 year, 5,654 week history of the Federal Reserve and its balance sheet. How fast does it grow, what is its trendline? In addition to last video, what is the trendline of the Fed's balance sheet before 2008? What about the post-2007 trendline?
All-time trendline coefficients:
y = a * EXP (b * x)
y = y-intercept * EXP (slope * x)
y = 2.26 * EXP (0.13% * x)
Pre-2008 trendline coefficients:
y = a * EXP (b * x)
y = y-intercept * EXP (slope * x)
y = 2.74 * EXP (0.12% * x)
Post-2007 trendline coefficients:
y = a * EXP (b * x)
y = y-intercept * EXP (slope * x)
y = 0.06 * EXP (0.21% * x)
https://porkopolis.io
https://twitter.com/crypto_voices
Show content is not investment or financial advice in any way.
26 min
March 27, 2023 CV148: Yaël Ossowski - Fix the Money
Check out show sponsor Coinkite: https://coinkite.com/
Donations to Porkopolis Economics via BTCPay appreciated: https://donations.porkopolis.io/
This is the one hundred forty-eighth podcast episode from Crypto Voices.
Show support appreciated: donations.cryptovoices.com
Matthew and Alec interview Yaël Ossowski from the Consumer Choice Center, who is also a visiting fellow at the Bitcoin Policy Institute. He recently started up a great new pod about Bitcoin, Fix the Money.
Contents
00:00 Intro
01:53 Uniform Commercial Code and BTC
10:40 Catawba Digital Economic Zone
14:55 Bank money apps, Cash App, etc.
23:45 Operation Choke Point 2.0
39:36 France - Macron events
Links for more info:
http://yael.at/
https://consumerchoicecenter.org/team/yael-ossowski/
https://fixthemoney.net/
https://www.btcpolicy.org/articles/in-attempt-to-stop-cbdcs-states-are-rejecting-ostensibly-pro-bitcoin-legislation
https://catawbadigital.zone/
https://thenetworkstate.com/
https://rns.id/
Show Sponsor: hodlhodl.com/join/cryptovoices
Hosts: Matthew Mežinskis, Michel, Alec Harris
Music: New Friend Music newfriendmusic.com/
Podcast & videos
Bitcoin, privacy, cryptoeconomics & liberty
Thanks for watching!
https://porkopolis.io
https://twitter.com/crypto_voices
Show content is not investment or financial advice in any way.
46 min
March 24, 2023 PE46: Fed printing... how much money? 108 year history... (I)
Check out show sponsor Coinkite: https://coinkite.com/
Donations to Porkopolis Economics via BTCPay appreciated: https://donations.porkopolis.io/
This is the forty-sixth video installment from Porkopolis Economics, covering macro and money, from the creator of the Crypto Voices podcast.
Contents
00:00 Intro
00:36 Used to be hard to find this data...
01:14 Log scale
01:39 What is the Fed's balance sheet?
04:42 What kind of assets do they buy with printed money?
07:01 What about gold?
08:15 History of Fed balance sheet
17:25 Removing money... until last two weeks
20:20 Exponential regression trendline (96% R-squared)
25:20 1-sigma percentile trendlines
26:70 2-sigma percentile trendlines
28:24 All-time compound annual (exponential) growth figures
Here we look at a 108 year, 5,654 week history of the Federal Reserve and its balance sheet. How fast does it grow, what is its trendline? What is a taper tantrum? How are they treating the banks?
Coefficients:
y = a * EXP (b * x)
y = y-intercept * EXP (slope * x)
y = 2.26 * EXP (0.13% * x)
https://porkopolis.io
https://twitter.com/crypto_voices
Show content is not investment or financial advice in any way.
33 min
March 23, 2023 PE45: What happens when bond yields go UP?
Check out show sponsor Coinkite: https://coinkite.com/
Donations to Porkopolis Economics via BTCPay appreciated: https://donations.porkopolis.io/
This is the forty-fifth video installment from Porkopolis Economics, covering macro and money, from the creator of the Crypto Voices podcast.
Contents
00:00 Intro
01:22 Bond price and yield are inversely related
00:50 How important is the bond market?
01:59 10-yr note price sensitivity per 1% YTM change
07:10 Other duration bond price sensitivity
09:18 What happens when yields fall? Happy days...
13:00 What happens when yields don't change?
13:51 What happens when yields rise? Pain...
19:16 What is different now, compared with 30 years ago?
Here we look at the main reason why banks are struggling today, and in general: The prices of government bonds have fallen drastically in the last year, as bond yields (or interest rates) have risen. This is the main reason why banks like SVB and others are failing. We continue on with last video's theme, but this time we take a look at bond durations above and below 10 years, from 1 year bills, to 50 year bonds (which exist in some countries, though not the US).
Remember, the price/value of bonds moves in the opposite direction of their yields/rates!
https://porkopolis.io
https://twitter.com/crypto_voices
Show content is not investment or financial advice in any way.
21 min
March 22, 2023 PE44: Why are banks failing?
Check out show sponsor Coinkite: https://coinkite.com/
Donations to Porkopolis Economics via BTCPay appreciated: https://donations.porkopolis.io/
This is the forty-fourth video installment from Porkopolis Economics, covering macro and money, from the creator of the Crypto Voices podcast.
Contents
00:00 Intro
00:25 Bonds... and two charts!
00:50 How important is the bond market?
03:40 Importance of 10-year note
04:34 Components of a bond (Yield most important!)
06:14 YTM history of US Treasury 10-yr note
10:11 Bond price sensitivity chart
16:15 Price sensitivity of 10-yr note only
19:55 What happens when yields rise? Pain...
24:15 What happens when yields fall? Fun...
Here we look at the main reason why banks are struggling today, and in general: The prices of government bonds have fallen drastically in the last year, as bond yields (or interest rates) have risen. This is the main reason why banks like SVB and others are failing.
Remember, the price/value of bonds moves in the opposite direction of their yields/rates!
https://porkopolis.io
https://twitter.com/crypto_voices
Show content is not investment or financial advice in any way.
29 min
March 21, 2023 PE43: How likely is Balaji's Bitcoin bet, really?
Check out show sponsor Coinkite: https://coinkite.com/
Donations to Porkopolis Economics via BTCPay appreciated: https://donations.porkopolis.io/
This is the forty-third video installment from Porkopolis Economics, covering macro and money, from the creator of the Crypto Voices podcast.
Contents
00:00 Intro
00:43 Log scale
02:20 Bitcoin all-time power regression (95% R-squared)
05:57 1-sigma percentile moves
06:30 2-sigma percentile moves
08:30 3-sigma percentile moves
10:36 3-sigma+ percentile to get to Balaji's bet by mid-June
15:20 Likelihood of price moving above Balaji's trendline
18:55 Year end 2011 power trendline comparison (85% R-squared)
22:04 How rare is a 3-4 sigma move in price?
Here we look at Balaji Srinivasan's $1 million price per bitcoin bet within 90 days, made last week. How extraordinary is such a price target?
All-time trend coefficients:
y = a * x ^ b
y = y-intercept * x ^ slope
y = 6.90E-18 * x ^ 588%
Year end 2011 trend coefficients:
y = a * x ^ b
y = y-intercept * x ^ slope
y = 2.52E-28 * x ^ 950%
https://porkopolis.io
https://twitter.com/crypto_voices
Show content is not investment or financial advice in any way.
26 min