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This is your Coffee podcast.
Hey friend, welcome back to the Daily Coffee Price Tracker. I am Vanessa Clark, and today we are diving into what is happening right now in the global coffee market and what it means for you.
Let us start with prices. According to Barchart, July arabica coffee futures, traded on ICE under the symbol KCN26, recently closed up about 2 percent on the day, gaining roughly six cents. July robusta coffee futures, the RMN26 contract, also moved higher, up a little more than 1 percent.
These gains came after a three week selloff that pushed prices to heavily oversold levels. Barchart and TradingView report that this rebound is being driven largely by technical buying and short covering, which basically means traders who had bet on lower prices are now rushing to buy back contracts as the market turns higher.
Another key factor supporting prices is what is happening with inventories. ICE certified coffee stocks, the beans actually sitting in exchange warehouses, have been trending lower over the past two months. MacroMicro, which tracks ICE Coffee C daily warehouse stocks, notes that declining inventories often signal tighter near term supply, and that can put a floor under prices.
On the other side of the scale, expectations for a bigger Brazilian coffee crop are still weighing on the longer term outlook. The Coffee Trading Academy recently projected Brazil’s twenty twenty six to twenty twenty seven harvest at about 71 million bags, roughly 12 percent higher than the previous year. Marex Group has gone even further, calling for a record crop near 76 million bags. StoneX is projecting that the global coffee surplus in twenty twenty six could expand to around 10 million bags, the largest surplus in six years.
So what does this mean for you as a buyer, roaster, or cafe owner? In the short term, you might see some stabilization or even a small uptick in green coffee costs as futures bounce from oversold levels and inventories tighten. Over the medium term, if those big Brazilian crop forecasts materialize, they could cap major price spikes, giving you a chance to lock in contracts if the market dips again.
Your takeaway today: watch both the futures curve and the inventory data. If stocks keep falling while prices rise, that is a sign of tighter nearby supply. If new reports start trimming those big Brazilian crop estimates, we could see another leg up in prices.
That is it for today’s Daily Coffee Price Tracker with me, Vanessa Clark. Thanks for listening, and be sure to subscribe so you never miss an update on the coffee market. Talk to you next time.
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