The market rose more than 1% 34 times in 2021, 12 more times than in 2019. A crash is a sharp fall in a price of an asset, but sharp moves were more frequently higher last year. Scott Murray, CFA describes the effect of creative destruction on the market, Companies with technology and productivity advantages have creativity built new business models while weak firms rapidly lose market share.

The new year begins new decisions. Recognizing heuristics that frequently led to poor decisions helps lay the foundation to better outcomes. Scott Murray, CFA uses the trend to "go forward it" on fourth down to illustrate outcome based analysis. With the focus on winning the game, NFL coaches have embraced the opportunity a fresh set of downs.

Investors are in the waiting place, looking for solid earnings growth and hikes the fed funds. Higher case counts could impede these actions. Scott Murray, CFA provides a look ahead to 2022, noting the strong equity performance this year and accommodative central bank. Strong economic growth should boost equities while encouraging the Fed to start a tightening cycle. 

The likelihood of a tornado hit in a 70 by 50-mile region is less than one half of a tenth of one percent. The storms over weekend showed the devasting effects natural disasters can have a community. With condolences to the people affected by the outbreak, Scott E. Murray, CFA notes the importance of the property/casualty insurance in protecting property. Homeowner's and renter's coverage are products that be appropriate to households to protect their property against devasting events.

Improved infrastructure provides a key catalyst for economic growth. The development of the Appalachian Highway System has added more than $10 billion annually in economic activity to this impoverished region. Scott Murray, CFA highlights the success of physical infrastructure and the opportunities of virtual connectivity in the Appalachian region. The community based approach utilized provides a model for the rest of the country.

The market goes up, and the market goes down. On November 26th, 2021, the market declined more than two percent. Scott Murray, CFA discuss how investors should point this decline in perspective. In the 2009 to 2020 bull market, declines of more ten percent, corrections, five times Should investors be worried?

Deere employees won a sizable wage increase, as need for workers and record profits collided. Skilled workers have an advantage, with more than 50% of small business are struggle to find qualified employees - a far cry from labor surpluses of the early 1800s. Scott Murray, CFA notes the wide difference of CEO's pay to median employees. The new virtual mobility adds more options for workers who are more eager to quit and find a new opportunity. 

Shelves are almost empty. Retail sales in October were almost $640 billion, more than $100 billion above pre-COVID levels. Scott Murray, CFA uses the old newsboy inventory analysis to discuss the low inventory levels in stores. Looking ahead, more safety stock and strong supply chains should position the economy for a strong expansion.

October was the fiftieth best month since 1947, amazing since there have been roughly 900 months over that time period. At the same time, the two-year Treasury note yield rose from 30 basis points to more than 50, an 80% uptick in yield. Scott Murray, CFA, reviews rocketing equities and rising expectations for a Fed rate hike. Also, consumers need to watch the price of oil and natural gas as the winter months approach. 

Food prices are going up rapidly. Poor countries are struggling to feed their citizens. Scott Murray, CFA highlights the interaction of food imports and currency devaluation. Empty kitchen tables and weak currencies are recipes for political instability.