Will Smith & Wesson Win The Election? Nick Santiago 10-28-20 #148
1. Markets start the session weak again. Obviously, the talk from the financial media is about the rising virus cases in Europe and the United States. Personally, I think this is really all about the election. There is now less than a week to go before the election and new revelations about the Biden family continue to emerge. Markets hate uncertainty and President Trump has now caught up in many polls. In fact, he is even leading in several polls at this time. This Is all about the election!

2. Microsoft (MSFT) reported earnings last night that were as stellar as expected. Unfortunately, the stock is falling by 3.4% this morning. Tomorrow afternoon we get earnings from Apple (AAPL), Amazon (AMZN) & Facebook (FB). So the reaction from these stock earnings tomorrow night could set the tone for the markets ahead of the election.  

3. Pandemics are in the eyes of the beholder. Fatality rate continues to plunge. Nick believes it’s all political. If Chris Christie can survive Covid 19 then there’s hope for the rest of us.

4. Gun stocks peaked in early August and have been pulling back ever since. Strum Ruger is a buy around $55.

5. Gold and silver getting slammed. Gold down 2 percent and silver is down around 4%. Sit tight, pattern hasn’t completed.

1. Traders and investors should expect the unexpected over the next week as we head into the elections. There could be some erratic market moves and lots of geopolitical events taking place over the next 7 days. Remember, 2020 has been one of the most chaotic trading years in history and the election is really just the cherry on top of the sundae.  Market sold off yesterday but came back at the end. Still an ugly session. Most industry groups were down. It was a 90% percent day, 90 percent of stocks were down.

2. Hate is not enough of a motivator to put Biden into the White House. Beware of rigging. The Trump Rallies are massive, even when Trump doesn’t show up. We’ll see what. Sounds like climate change.

3. Semiconductor giant, Advanced Micro Devices (AMD), is buying Xilinx (XLNX) in a $35 billion all stock deal. This is a big take-over in the semiconductor sector. It might also start some more M&A activity within the industry group. That is usually a positive for markets short term. Microsoft earnings coming up.

4. Biden tax plan will lead to a market sell-off. If Biden wins next Tuesday watch out for a major market liquidation. Raising the corporate tax rate will end the influx of foreign companies coming to the country. Growth will be over.

4. Gold and silver up slightly today. Backing and filling. Consolidation. No real conviction on either side. This is a healthy.

1. Markets down big on the back of 2nd European Covid Wave. Markets are down 2.5 % except for Nasdaq 1.7%, S&P 500 down over 2%. Hospitalizations are up. Caution going into the election. All election induced. How long with the post-election chaos last for? Probably the most divided time for our country since the Civil War. Hopefully people will wake up. Biden’s campaign is flagging. He’s unintelligible. He’s been on the take for decades. The laptop disclosures have been shocking. Word is getting out, despite efforts to supress the story. Trump supporter caravans are breaking out all over. 5th Avenue in New York.

2. Anti-covid riots cropping up all over Europe. People are done with this. They want to get on with their lives. Will they be able to lockdown everything again.

3. Earnings are coming but they are taking a back seat to the election and Covid. Highest number of reports coming this week. SAP, huge German company getting absolutely slaughtered, down 24%.

4. Election outcome, you can speculate on your own.

5. Gold is up slightly. Silver down about 1%

1 .Stimulus and markets, we only have 12 days before the election and Mnuchin says there’s significant differences. Perhaps the President will just do some executive orders. Covid rising but deaths are not.

2. Debate may have had some affect on markets. Thing were revealed, no more petroleum industry. Good showing for Trump. Moderator did a good job. Learning more and more about Biden’s misdeeds. The irony is the mainstream media won’t report on it. But foreign media is picking up the baton.

3. Markets are looking for stimuls and now getting it. Markets are down but Russell 2000 isn’t too affected. Markets have factored this in already. Don’t hold your breath, it may be better done after the election.

4. If Trump wins it will be a big plus for the markets. Polls are shifting and so are betting. Post election civil unrest and police are training around the clock. We are actually witnessing defund the police not being practical. Reopening is a must. Places still will not reopen. People want this.

5. Gold and silver are running the normal pattern. Up 1-2 days, down 1-2 days. The move is coming. You don’t have to be the first person.

1. Markets still do not have clarity on the $2 trillion stimulus deal. So we are still handcuffed to headline risk. One minute we hear a deal is close and then it is far apart an hour later. Time is running out to get a deal done before the election. Will Trump do an executive order for $1200 in rebates?

2. The weekly initial claims report was released this morning. The report showed 787,000 new claims. This number was better than expected. The continuing claims for the week ending October 10 decreased by 1.024 million to 8.373 million. So right now we are seeing slow improvements.

3. Gold and silver down today. Backing and filling. Saw tooth pattern. Choppy pattern. Trading right in line with the major stock indexes. Beware of instant gratification, a prescription for failure. Inside bar pattern. Best way to play copper, ETN, mimics copper’s moves very closely. SCCO is another great way to play it.

1. The stimulus bill negotiations will be front and center again today. Earlier today, White House Chief of Staff Mark Meadows said he is hopeful to get some kind of stimulus deal over the next 48 hours. We shall see. I think we have heard this before. The markets are now looking forward to a $2 trillion stimulus package. I will take my $1200 and fund a RobinHood account. Odds are good that it’s going to happen. m

2. Earnings season is underway. Often, a lot of big moves will occur after the earnings announcement. Netflix (NFLX) is one stock that is selling off today by more than 5.0%. When it comes to the high flyers, these stocks can move big on earnings. So everyone should be aware of that risk if you hold stocks into the announcement. We’re going to get more big flyer tech results. There’s gonna be big gyrations, up and down. Next week will be a heavy earnings week. Sometimes you win big and other times you lose big. Nick ignores earlnings. Everything now is digital, multi platforms, going forward the market is sour on Hollywood. NFLX benefitted from the lockdown and they want to get out. Everyone is starting their own streaming service. Smart TV’s are getting to smart for Netflix’s own good. No relative strength.

3. Gold and silver up bigly today. Bitcoin up big today broke 12K resistance and Paypal announced it’s entry into crypto. It’s overbought right now and parabolic on the daily chart. Could hit 14k. Gold and silver moving up with the market. We’re heading towards the seasonal high. Silver showing better relative strength. Canadian tax loss selling might be extremely light this year. Nick likes the sector. Copper stalled out slightly in September but has picked up the slack in October, but Nick says it’s going to $3.5 per pound.

4. Swing trades is a trade that takes place for a few days to a few weeks. You’re not looking to ride out a the entire move but rather exit when it hits resistance. As opposed to a position trade where the investor has a longer time frame.

1. Last night, I saw that the rapper, 50 Cent, is now endorsing President Trump due to the Biden tax plan. Many people are looking at this very closely. I have mentioned this on the show numerous times. People making over 400K a year are going to be hammered with a 16% tax increase. That plan would crush small businesses and many entrepreneurs. Plus, if the corporate tax rate is changed to 28% from 21% that would cause many foreign companies to leave and do business elsewhere. 

2. Yesterday's stock market was all about the stimulus bill, but we have not heard much about it today. Supposedly, Treasury Secretary Mnuchin and Speaker Pelosi are talking today, but we have not heard any details yet. We are just 2 weeks away from the election, so if there is a deal to be made before the election it must be made soon. Overall it won’t matter in the long run, but for the short run it’s having an outsized impact. States won’t start opening up until after the election. It’s all about fear, not science as Governor Andy Cuomo

3. Gold and silver a little pop. Gold futures up a little. Miners and junior miners up a little. Not a bad day there. Just trading in line with the market. Doing the sideways dance. Some more

Nick Santiago 10-19-20 #140


1. Pelosi puts the kabosh on stimulus. Markets reversed and sold off. Around 2:30 WaPo said no stimulus. Nick thinks they’re gonna try to get something done. Politicians never miss an opportunity to give money away, especially before the election. Volume was very light. 66 million shares on the SPYDR’s. S&P down by 56, Dow over 400. Time is ticking away. $1.8 trillion. Just give the Robinhood traders money direct and they’ll keep the market going higher. Election risk is short term and likely to subside.

2. Gold and silver were trading higher during the day and came down with the market. More backing and filling.

3. Housing has been resilient. They extremely over bought at this stage of the game. Too high to buy.

4. Travel has been down, but airline stocks have kept up pretty well considering. Hotel stocks have been choppy and sloppy. Not much downside here. Travel sites haven’t been too bad either. Earning season is under way.

1. Today is options expiration for October. This is usually a quiet session after the first couple of hours of trading. Next week, the markets get back to real trading action as most of the institutional game playing is over. Nick’s favorite day of the week. Next week it’s back to normal.

2. Right now, the major stock indexes seem to be holding up really well, but there is election risk that is still in play here so use a little caution going into the election.  Dow up 211. Russell 2000 up 3/4%. Nasdaq showing a little bit of weakness. Money going into financials. Energy still showing weakness.

3. Gold and silver, on the weaker side. Gold down $5 and silver is positive on the futures. Just a lot of backing and filling.

4. Election action in the markets is encouraging. Markets were down big on the open but turned around with the Russell 2000 up 1% on the day. Extremely tight range. Big moves with no follow-through. Digesting and consolidating. Caution is still the by-word. News not getting reported. Markets could still be volatile into the election and shortly thereafter. Watch the charts. News flow will be off the charts. Censoring in social media, Biden story, etc. More stuff is coming out. Get ready for explosive movements and revelations. The market will tell us what to do.

1. The Weekly Initial Claims Report was 898K, this increased by 53,000. The expectations were for 830K. Continuing claims decreased to 10.018 million from a revised count of 11.183 million. Continuing claims are heading down. Cuomo says that lockdowns aren’t based upon science, they’re based upon fear.

2. Markets have been pulling back a bit since Monday. If you recall, the market rallied on Monday. Often, when markets rally on Monday they will back and fill the rest of the week. I believe a lot of selling this week is due to options expiration which is this Friday. The market is not seeing a total unwinding after the election. Stocks have recovered and are testing the old highs. Setting up for a strong rally.

3. SPAC Blank Check companies Nick is not a fan. A way for these companies to have an easier IPO process, witness Nikolai. There’s billions going into them. It’s getting a bit frothy. If the number going public really picks up, be careful. Same volume and chart patterns apply. However there’s little or no data available. Stimulus going forward, questionnable. Not sure if we’re going to get a deal or not. 60-40 likelihood of it happening. Market will react favorably to more stimulus.

4. Gold and silver futures are down slightly, nothing terrible. More sideways action. Extremely bullish. Copper is going signifcantly higher, consolidating since July, but it’s setting up for more upside.