1. Yesterday, the major stock indexes surged higher. Volume was anemic. S&P 500 hit its 50 day mav. Today, they are stalling out or pausing from a large short term advance. Basically, the market seems to be taking a breather today. Not unusual after a good run on all major indexes. Right now it’s all about chart patterns and the election.

2. Tonight is the highly anticipated Presidential Debate. The markets could be a little quiet as they wait for the debate, but I don't think this debate is really a big deal personally. After any debate you will just get a lot of spin and then we will be back to normal trading tomorrow. Will there be a big car wreck or a large dumpster fire?

3. Gold and Silver trading higher on futures. Both metals are acting pretty well right now. 1850 area is a huge support level. Breakout took place at $1800. Markets do like to test it’s old breakout level. It would be very bullish. Max downside is $1675.

1. Markets rallied into the weekend. That is always a short term bullish indication when traders and investors want to hold stocks over the weekend when markets are closed. Still a little choppy going into the election. Traders be warned. Identify the best chart patterns and equities. Still a tough period for the market.

2. This morning, stocks are trading nicely higher to start the week. I think a lot of this could be buying into the end of the quarter. We used to call this end of quarter window dressing, but that is not supposed to happen. Institutions want to show their clients that they owned the big moving stocks over the past 3 months. Either way, use caution going forward.   

3. Semi-conductors are still making lots of money. Every sell-off turns into a short squeeze. The shorts got squeezed.

4. Correction to end within a few weeks. End of the quarter nonsense. Not really a correction, rather a sideways chop. Wait and see.

5. Governor of Florida has ordered a massive reopening and taken away the ability to fine people for not wearing masks. This could be a portent of things to come around the country.

1. Market up across the board. Volume very light. End of the quarter window dressing? S&P up, Nasdaq big winner. Light volume helps to favor the upside. It’s how they close that matters.

2. Home builders are extremely strong and in up trends. Could be a bit overbought. You would think they would they’d be going down but they have surprised. There’s a mass migration from Blue to Red and North to South and Urban to Suburban and Ex-urban

3. Travel stocks have pulled back but cruise lines have started to recover. Charts are not terrible. Nick’s watching Royal Caribbean and Carnival for a buy signal.

4. Mass reopening on the way in Florida. People still wearing masks and people are very nervous. Things are extremely busy in these states. People have had enough.

5. Slight sell-off in gold and silver. Gold and silver futures down. SLV and GLD are down. Healthy pullbacks. We’ve been talking about this since July.

1. Yesterday, the major stock indexes sold off sharply after a two day bounce. So far, the month of September has been an ugly month for the markets. Election risk is certainly in play here and that could last up into the election. Historically, September and October are known to be tough for the bulls.  it was on an uptick in volume. Historically September and October are difficult times for the market. Primarily election risk. The cycles tell us that this is a risky time. Watch the patterns. Nick isn’t seeing anywhere near the March lows. 2800 S&P is a possibility, Nick can’t rule it out. Worst case scenario. If it does happen, it’s going to be an amazing buying opportunity.

2. This will ultimately lead to a buying opportunity. Cut down share sizes. Don’t be in a rush.

3. Earlier today, the Weekly Initial Jobless Claims was released and came in at 870K. This was a little higher than expected, but somewhat expected. The Weekly Continuing Claims 12.58 million which was slightly better than expected. Either way, things are slowly improving. All the states with over 10 percent unemployment are all blue states. There’s never been anything like this before.

4. Gold and silver futures down a bit more. When they settle, an amazing opportunity is coming. If the overall market looked good, Nick would be buying right now. What goes up must come down. Berard Baruch said he never caught the extreme low and the extreme top. Always be humble because you never know what the market will do, for certain anyway.

1. Leading sneaker and retail apparel maker Nike (NKE) is trading sharply higher after reporting earnings. Up over $10. The stock is currently up about 8.0%. It is a bit extended and overbought now, but it has helped other retails stocks catch a bid today. Stocks such as Dicks Sporting Goods, (DKS), Foot Locker (FL), Lululemon (LULU), and even Under Armour (UAA) are trading higher in sympathy to Nike today. 

2. Yesterday, the major stock indexes rallied higher, but remember, the markets were oversold and due for a technical bounce in the near term. Election risk is in play right now and that is not going to change for the next few weeks. This is going to be very tricky going forward. If we take out Monday’s low, it’s going a lot lower. Russell 2000 has hung in pretty well, has pulled back less than other indexes. Still above its 200 day moving average. Dow Industrials will remain relevant because they’re the 30 best companies. S&P 500 is more relevant from Nick’s POV.

3. Gold and silver continue their pullback. The correction is getting near completion. Zig zag pattern had to occur. Weak hands needed to be shaken out. Nick likes Newmont and Agnico. When Newmont hits $57, it’s a buy. Momentum players have gotten burned by the sector. SLV down over 5%. Silver getting to the $20 range. Spec money has been flowing at amazing rates. The A-B-C move will shake them out.

1. The NASDAQ 100 (QQQ) rebounded yesterday afternoon from the sharp sell off that started on September 2nd. Many of the cloud software stocks (IGV) lead the tech heavy NASDAQ 100 into positive territory. There is a lot of chatter that Europe will be locking down again due to a second wave of the coronavirus. So many of these cloud software stocks surged on this news.

2. The election is just 41 days away and there looks like a lot of political game playing can go on. Either way, a cautious stance should be taken over the next few weeks. If we have learned anything from 2020 it is to expect the unexpected. We’ll probably rally up to the election. Cycles say Biden won’t even make it to the election.

3. Gold also rebounded yesterday off of the lows showing that it is resilient right now. The chart pattern for gold is still very solid at this time.

1. Market gapped down today. The Dow and all indexes are getting hammered. Is it the start of a major decline. A 250 point decline on the Nasdaq. Russell 2000 down 4%, a huge decline. It’s an ugly day. Nick does not believe that we’re going to retest the March lows. It’s all about election insanity. We don’t want to fight the trend, but when volume kicked up on the downside, Nick knew it was heading lower. Nick took a short position. Caution is the by-word for the upcoming election. The political environment is unprecedented. The Robinhood Traders were the ultimate tip-off. A lot of insider selling. When we have market volume, it goes up, when it’s high it’s been going down.

2. Well below the 50 day moving average on the semi-conductors.

3. Gold and silver also getting slammed. Gold inflates with the market and deflates with the market. As long as we don’t go through some major technical levels, we should be fine. The odds were favorable that this was going to happen. Nick’s been around a long time and he saw it coming. “Human nature never changes, therefore the market never changes.” You don’t make money on FOMO. Nick hopes it will be down by the election.

4. Patience is the key to successful trading.

1. Today is options expiration for the month of September. As I have stated before this is a quarterly expiration so there are 4 different asset classes expiring this week. It is called quadruple witching options expiration. 

Yesterday was a very wild day in the market, it was filled with a ton of whipsaw throughout the day. I do not expect that kind of action today. By now, the institutional market makers have likely finished up with the options expiration games that get played every month. Volume will tell me what kind of day this will be, but it will not have the whipsaw like we saw yesterday. 

2. Economy is improving, a lot of the good news is factored in. Much of it supported by central bank intervention. QE4 has been unprecedented. We’ve seen a tech shakeout. TSLA hung in. It topped out on 9-1 and then hit a bottom on 9-8. Typical game. Upside is limited. EV stocks have been strong. Just look at the charts. At this stage everyone goes EVphoria.

3. Gold and silver, gold futures up. Silver flat. GDX flat. A quiet day for gold. It’s been basing for nearly 2 months.

1. Markets are starting the session very weak with a large gap lower open. The tech heavy NASDAQ is under some heavy selling pressure to start the day, but remember this is an options expiration week. This is supposed to be a week filled with a lot of whipsaw in the market. Either way, we have election risk going forward, so everyone needs to be a little cautious right now. 

2. Traders will really need to see how the markets finish this week.The chart pattern will be very important when viewing the daily and weekly setups.  Options traders are getting slammed. Quarterly expirations are even more important. Quadruple Witching Hour. If there’s a stock that’s beaten down, be very careful. Amazon down 2.5%. Doesn’t happen all the time but definitely something to watch for. Steer clear of near-term expiration.

3. New claims came in at 860k and continuing claims at 12.6 million, below the prior week’s revised totals.


4. Gold futures down $16 and silver down 1% as well. More backing and filling. A little more backing and filling then it will be time. You can safely get back into the trade. February and March options could be the way to go. Seasonality will likely be positive for December. Inflation will be picking up. The Fed is trying to ratchet up inflation. Needs are going higher and wants have been going down to now.