1. It is Fed Day! At 2pm ET, the FOMC will make their interest rate policy decision for the US. They are expected to raise rates by 25 basis points. This is already baked into the cake, the verbiage will be what moves markets. The current fed funds rate is 4.75% and the next hike should bring it to the psychological 5% level. The central bank has some wiggle room here because the 2 year note yield is around 4%. As long as the fed funds rate is above the 2 year yield the market expects inflation to come down.

The big problem that the central bank faces though is that there are still a lot of inflationary pressures out there and that does not look like it is going away anytime soon. War is inflationary, food prices are rising, gasoline is up again and there has been a lot of money printed since 2020 roughly $13 trillion.

2. The regional bank ETF (KRE) is bouncing back today by 2%. Yesterday, the regional bank ETF (KRE) plunged lower making a new 52 week low. We have been talking about that bearish consolidation pattern and yesterday it broke.

3. Gold is pulling back a little today after surging yesterday. Gold is the new VIX and it can move higher if another bank failure emerges.

4. Oil is plunging again this morning. On April 12th, crude was trading around $83.00 a barrel and today it's trading at $69.00 a barrel. This is a daily chart support level so it might hold for a little bit.any close below the march low at $64.12 will likely trigger a decline to around the $50.00 level. That will be a golden goose buying opportunity. Natgas is being accumulated. Buying opportunity soon. Commodities are coming back to make new highs soon.

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1. This is a very big week for the markets. On Wednesday, we have the Fed. They are expected to raise rates by 25 bps. This news is already baked in, so the verbiage should be the market moving event.

2. Apple Inc (AAPL) will report earnings on Thursday May 4th. This is the last of the mega cap stocks to report and probably the most important. Remember, Apple is part of the DOW Jones Industrial Average, S&P 500 Index and the NASDAQ.

3. First Republic Bank (FRB) was picked up by JP Morgan Chase (JPM) today. We suspected this last week and it seems to have calmed the markets for now. I think traders should continue to keep a close eye on the Regional bank ETF (KRE). Today, the KRE is actually trading lower by .023 cents. The daily chart pattern on the KRE also looks week and continues to make a bearish consolidation pattern. It went down exactly the way we called it.

4. Gold and silver are basically flat today. They started the morning out with some strength, but have rolled over a little here. Either way, they remain overbought in the short term, but are consolidating right now so thi pattern on the daily chart must be watched. Gold is the best fear indicator out there right now.

In this meeting, Kerry Lutz and Nick Santiago discussed the stock market rally, the number of layoffs, the Federal Reserve's job mandate, the shrinking money supply, and the performance of gold, silver, and Bitcoin. They concluded that the market is responding positively to the layoffs, the Fed is likely to raise rates, and the precious metals are holding up well. They also discussed the potential for consolidation of banks and the introduction of Fed Now in July.

Key Points:

• Discussion of Market Movements and Layoffs
• Amazon's earnings report
• Layoffs
• Federal Reserve's job mandate
• Quantitative tightening

Key Questions:

• Will the Federal Reserve raise rates again after their next meeting?
• Will the government give all the banks to Jp Morgan, Bank of America, City Group, and Wells Fargo?

Vital Links
Find Nick at https://InTheMoneyStocks.com
Find Kerry at https://FinancialSurvivalNetwork.com

1. Earnings season is underway. MSFT earnings were released last night and the reaction is positive this morning. The stock is trading higher by 7.0% and that is helping the NASDAQ and a lot of the tech stocks today. GOOG also reported earnings and that stock is trading higher by 2.25% so far today. META is scheduled to report tonight.

2. Energy stocks were under pressure today, but coming back. Oil is lower and nat gas is getting hammered.
Defense contractors are also weak today as General Dynamics (GD) is trading lower by 5.3%.

3. The regional bank stocks were slammed yesterday after First Republic Bank ((FRB) reported that it will need to sell assets. This news helped lift gold yesterday, but today we are seeing a big move in Bitcoin. Bitcoin back over $30k. It pulled back on Options X but now moving forward. One last surge.


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1. Markets got through last week's options expiration unscaved ending basically flat for the week This week we start to get some of the mega cap tech names reporting earnings. Mega cap tech stocks such as $GOOG, $MSFT, $META and $AMZN are scheduled for later this week. On top of that we will see earnings from hundreds of companies.

2. Next Wednesday(May 3rd), the FOMC will make their interest rate policy decision for the US. This is something that the markets are really concerned about. Many investors are expecting the Fed to raise a 1/4 point and pause for the rest of the year. I expect another 1/4 point hike and have no idea what they will say going forward.

3. Energy is the strong industry group today, but this sector remains very choppy lately. Either way, this sector must be watched closely as it has been a place where investors continue to look for upside action.

4. Gold is basically flat today, but it has been pulling back recently. Gold got extremely overbought when the Silicon bank collapse occurred. Traders should now watch for patterns here because it is holding up rather well and not falling sharply. That tells me the banking issue may not be over despite all the central bank intervention.

5. Bitcoin pulled in a bit last week, but remember it was an option expiration week. The daily chart could still have upside but this popular crypto is getting top heavy at this stage of the game.

1. The CPI report was released earlier today. On a year-over-year basis, total CPI was up 5.0%, versus up 6.0% in February. That is the smallest 12-month increase since May 2021. Core-CPI was up 5.6% year-over-year, versus up 5.5% in February.
All I care about is the market reaction to the news and today the major indexes are slightly higher. At this time, the daily trend is still higher and until it changes traders must respect it.

2. Energy stocks are holding up well today. That group has been very choppy lately, but continues to remain in an up-trend. The important industry group that everyone should be watching is the financial stocks. This Friday, JP Morgan (JPM) will report earnings, so that reaction will be very important. As a trader I continue to watch the Regional Bank ETF (KRE) for clues on a daily basis. Should the regional bank ETF start to slide it's a good indication that the banking crisis is back despite all of the central bank's efforts.

3. Gold continues to hold up well despite it being overbought. This is now the safety play as gold is trading higher on fear. I'm not sure that is going to change anytime soon.

4. Bitcoin is above the psychological 30,000 level and the daily chart remains strong right now. Ultimately, the larger time frames is not a good pattern and signals another decline.

1. The major stock indexes are starting out on the weaker side again. Traders and investors are coming off of a 3-day weekend where the market was closed last Friday. Last Friday, the non-farm payroll report was released and it told us that 236K new jobs in March. Does this put the Fed in play to keep raising rates at the next meeting? Time will tell.

2. Traders should note, despite yields pulling back a lot over the past couple weeks since the banking crisis started there is still a big inverted yield curve between 2's and 10's. That tells us that there will be more problems down the road.

3. Tech is under pressure today. AAPL, GOOG, TSLA and MSFT are all trading down by more than 2.0%. These stocks are mega caps so they carry a lot of weight with sentiment and are a good gauge to what the mood is out in the market. Now let me be clear, these have been major winners recently and are somewhat overbought at the moment. Pattern will be very important going forward.

4. Gold is pulling back today trading down 0.85%. Gold is very overbought after its recent run higher. It remains in an uptrend and is the ultimate fear trade, so the pattern will be extremely important to watch.

5. Bitcoin is upticking today again. The daily chart still looks strong to me and should have another push higher in the near term. Unfortunately, the bigger time frame pattern remains weak and signals another sharp decline. Enjoy the rally now because it won't last all that long.

1. Today, the big story over the weekend is from OPEC +. They announced that they will begin a 1.16 mln barrel per day production cut starting in May into the end of 2023. This is coming as a surprise. but last week oil did start to creep up. This could be a gamechanger since energy prices affect the US consumer. Should gasoline prices move higher, that is a direct tax to the US consumer. I would think this would be bullish for nat gas since it is the true alternative to oil, but that is not the case today as nat gas is slumping.

2. The financial stocks are hanging in there to start the week. The Regional Bank ETF (KRE) is actually trading higher by 0.50%. Traders must keep an eye on this sector as it is the bloodline of the markets right now.

3. The tech heavy NASDAQ-100 is under pressure this morning trading lower by .50%. The NASDAQ-100 is actually overbought in the short term and many leading stocks such as Apple and Microsoft (MSFT) are extended and into resistance.

4. This is a holiday shortened trading week with the market closed for the Good Friday holiday. Passover also begins on Wednesday so volume trends are expected to be light throughout the week.

1. The PCE Price Index rose 0.3% in February following a 0.6% increase in January. Expectations were 0.4%, so this was a little softer. Investors are now thinking the Fed may start to get more dovish. The core-PCE Price Index, which excludes food and energy, is the Fed's preferred inflation gauge.
The markets have rallied this week and are holding up again this morning.

2. According to Bloomberg, Chinese regulators are now conducting a cybersecurity review of MU products. I have to chuckle at this news. Will this start the chip wars and signal a new phase of tensions between the US and China? Of course it will.

3. The financial stocks have to be followed like a hawk these days. today, the financial stocks are slightly positive. Many investors are waiting for another show to drop, but that has not happened yet and the central banks have done a lot to keep the liquidity in these banks.

4. Gold is basically flat today, but it has not really backed off much lately. In my opinion, gold is the new VIX. While I believe it is overbought at this time we must understand that fear is the strongest emotion in trading next to greed and gold is up in fear.
5. Bitcoin is holding up well again. I still think it could more up a bit more on the daily chart, bit after this run is over the down turn should be back in play.

1.The markets are in rally mode today. The move higher is being led by tech, but it is really broad based as most every industry group is higher.
Lately, I have been watching the Regional Bank ETF (KRE) for guidance and that is acting well so far today. After all, the financial stocks are the most important sector to follow since we have a banking crisis on our hands right now.

2. Another very important industry group to follow is the semiconductors (SMH). Today, they are trading higher by over 2% so we must respect that for the moment. This group remains strong despite trading into a lot of resistance. Semiconductor leaders like Nvidia (NVDA and Advanced Micro Devices (AMD) are holding near multi month highs and that is positive for the group.

3. Gold is backing off a little today, but it rallied yesterday. So while gold is overbought it remains strong right now. Please understand, gold is up on fear and often that is when the strongest and fastest moves come in the precious metal.

4. Bitcoin is catching a solid bid today trading higher by 4% to 28,400. This has been very strong lately and should still have more upside in the near term. Unfortunately, the bigger picture outlook has not changed, so enjoy the rally while it lasts.
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