1. News that First Citizens Banc Shares (FCNCA) will acquire all deposits and loans of Silicon Valley Bank (SIVB) is giving the markets a bump higher this morning. The markets are also rejoicing that there was no real negative news over the weekend. Just about all of the regional banks are trading up on this news today.

2. Bond yields are up sharply today as well. So while everyone believes that yields are headed lower they are holding up well today. The important 2-year note yield is up 19 bps to 3.97%. Right now this is well below the fed funds rate which is at 4.75%, but if this starts to rise and catches back up to its recent high at 5% then that would be problematic for the Fed.

3. Gold is selling off today trading lower by 1.2%. Gold is the new VIX. It Obviously has soared recently due to the fear in the financial system, but is now backing off. If more financial stocks start to have problems I'm sure gold will catch a bid, but it was extended and overbought last week.

1. It's Fed day! The FOMC (Federal Reserve Open Market Committee) will announce their interest rate policy decision for the US. the market is expecting a 25 bps hike in the fed funds rate. While this is already factored into the market the verbiage will likely be the market mover. The press conference will be very interesting as he will have to address the recent bank failures from SVB Bank and Signature Bank. After all, this banking crisis was due to the inverted yield curve. I want to hear about the QT (quantitative tightening) that is supposedly taking place.

2. Today, the major stock indexes are quiet ahead of this central bank announcement. This is really understandable since the central bank is stuck between a rock and a hard place. If they raise rates it will slow things down and could hurt more upside down banks. If they cut rates it will likely enhance inflation. In my opinion, inflation is not going away that easy.

3. Gold has pulled back over the past 2 sessions. Gold surged recently on the back of fear and it has become the new VIX in my opinion. This could be a mover agian today after the Fed announcement. Platinum has been a big mover and retraced but wants it lower before going in at $850.

4. Natgas Nick bought Natgas yesterday. It ran up 37% in 9 days and has pulled back a bit. Upside target is the low $3’s and then $4.

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1. The financial stocks are rebounding today after UBS buys Credit Suisse. This comes after the Swiss National Bank bailed out Credit Suisse last Friday. The Federal Reserve announced a coordinated central bank action with the Bank of Canada, the Bank of England, the Bank of Japan, the European Central Bank, and the Swiss National Bank to enhance provision of U.S. dollar liquidity.
This Wednesday, the FOMC will make their interest rate policy decision for the US. At this time, the market is expecting the central bank to raise by 25 bps. Some firms are expecting the fed to pause, but I'll stick with the 25 bps hike.
Either way, today the big winners are bank stocks and the losers are soem big cap tech safe havens that ran last week.

2. Gold is slipping a little today, that tells me that the fear is leaving the market a little today. Gold has gone up in parabolic fashion recently telling us that that is the real safe haven as people lose faith and confidence in the system.
Silver was not as strong as gold during this crisis, but there will be a solid opportunity in silver after it settles back down.

3. Crypto remains strong as Bitcoin rallies higher again. There should be a little more to go in Bitcoin before it stalls out. Investors are looking at Bitcoin as an alternative to banks, but I do not think that lasts.

1. It's still all about the banks. Yesterday, we got news that a special discount window was opened to the banks to provide liquidity. Then, First Republic Bank (FRC) confirmed that it will receive a $30 billion injection to help cover deposits. This money was given to them by several large banks like JP Morgan, Bank of America and others. First Republic also announced it will suspend its dividend.
Basically, the financial system has been bailed out without anyone calling it a bailout.

2. Oil is weak again today. This is not a good chart right now. Crude oil broke below the February 6th pivot and that opened the chart up for more downside. Oil will obviously not fall in a straight line, but it is in a weak technical chart position and should be avoided unless you are a savvy scalper.

3. Today is quadruple witching options expiration for March. This has been a very volatile and choppy week. Traders that are sticking around into the close should watch for some wild end of day action. There will be a lot of rebalancing going on and exercising of options, so things could be all over the map in many individual names.

4. Gold is strong again today. This tells me that the current bank crisis is not over. In order for gold to rally right now it is signaling fear is alive and well. if gold starts to retreat that will likely signal some relief in the major indexes.

5. Bitcoin is surging higher today again. This is likely another move due to the recent liquidity injection in the market. Bitcoin took off on Monday and really has not looked back. Again, this is an alternative to the banks at this time. The rally can continue a bit more, but nothing has changed on the larger time frame which is bearish.

1. This has been one heck of a volatile trading week so far. Three major bank failures have taken place in the last 7-days in the US and now it could be spreading to Europe. Credit Suisse (CS) is making the headlines today. It looks as if their largest shareholder, Saudi National Bank, said it can't provide further financial help. The CS chart has been a horrible performer. and it is trading at all time lows.
Now we shall soon find out if someone comes to the rescue of the failing institution. Traders will also have to keep an eye on other ket stocks such as Deutsche Bank (DB) and UBS AG (UBS).

2. Ironically, the ECB is meeting tomorrow and they were expected to raise rates by 50 basis points. That rate hike could be off the table now.

3. Just a reminder, this Friday is options expiration . It is a quad witching options expiration which happens at the quarterly expiration. Tomorrow there will be a rebalancing take place in the different indexes so expect a lot of whipsaw action into the end of the week.

4. Gold is up again as the fear trade is alive and well. Gold futures (GC) have a lot of resistance on the charts at 1930 and that is where price is currently. Either way, if the markets become more fearful than gold could move higher I suppose. The precious metal moves in extremes when it runs.

Banking crisis is in full swing. Rates coming down, but yield curve is inverted. Banks were caught flatfooted as the Fed. No one wanted SVP or Signature. Money is going to tighten up. Will the Fed cut rates next week? Is QT coming to an end? Unknowns equal selling pressure.

Gold took off today after good days on Thursday and Friday. Silver is up 6%. Fear is in full swing.

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1. All eyes will be on Fed Chairman Jay Powell as he gives his second day of testimony on Capitol Hill. Yesterday, his opening remarks sent the stock market plunging throughout the session. He stated that rates will go higher for longer and that was all the market needed to hear to begin a sharp sell-off. I'm not sure how the market will react today, but yesterday was ugly.
The 2-year note yield ended above 5% and that is where the fed funds rate needs to catch up to.

2. Warren Buffett's Berkshire Hathaway $BRK.B bought another 5,801,791 shares of Occidental Petroleum $OXY. This is in addition to his current stake in the oil giant. I tweeted out earlier that it's funny that he isn't investing in windmills.

3. Gold (GLD) got crushed yesterday as the US Dollar Index surged. Today, the US Dollar is stalling a little and gold is upticking. I still believe the US DOllar has much more to go and gold could slump from here. Just remember, the war wild card is always a reason to look at gold. Thyat could be a catalyst for gold to pop early.

4. Silver also dumped out yesterday on the back of the stronger dollar. Today, silver is rebounding a little as it hit a major retrace level. I still think this will ultimately pull back further before it becomes a major buy again.

5. Bitcoin has lost some steam lately. Its still somewhat constructive on the daily chart, but if the pattern breaks down it could be cooked. Remember, the large time-frames are bearish.

1. Markets are continuing to rally again to start the week. This rally began last Thursday and today it's been sharp to the upside being led by tech. $AAPL is trading higher by 2.46% after being upgraded by Goldman Sachs today. Last week the tech giant was upgraded by Morgan Stanley and this was one of the main catalysts for a market pop.

2. Energy is declining today across the board. Natural gas is pulling back after its recent run. NAT gas is trading down by 12%. Last week it serged by 37%, so a pullback was in order. Today, just about everything in the energy space is falling.

3. Tomorrow and Wednesday Fed Chairman Jay Powell will give his Semiannual Monetary Policy Report to the Congress. Often, the markets will be waiting to hear what the fed Chairman has to say before making any big commitments. We shall see if the politicians can ask any serious and meaningful questions. Usually, it's just politics at its best.

4. Gold is stalling out a little bit today. Recently, gold has had a good bounce off of near term support around 1825-1830. That is going to be a key level to keep in the radar going forward.

5. Bitcoin is ticking up today after getting hammered on friday. Silvergate was the likely key to the crypto selloff. Bitcoin is still constructive on the daily chart, but the larger time frame charts look awful.

1. Markets are rallying higher today. Yesterday, the markets surged after the Atlanta Fed president Rafael Bostic said he favors a 25 basis point hike in March. So the markets live to fight another day, but I'm still looking for more choppiness ahead.
Today, we have 4 fed heads speaking throughout the day and this may be what is keeping the markets higher right now.

2. Energy is strong today again after a weaker start. Natural gas is still looking strong again today. I believe this has more upside to go.

3. Gold is catching a bid as well today. The precious metal is up 0.65% today to 1853 an ounce.

4. Bitcoin is getting hammered today as newsm from Silvergate continues to roll in.

1. The major stock indexes are battling to get into positive territory. Since the start of the week the major indexes have been on the weaker side. The big box retailers are a little soft today. I'm seeing weakness in Lowes (LOW), Home Depot (HD), Target (TGT), WalMart (WMT) and Costco (COST). That is worth noting.

2. Energy stocks are higher today despite oil being flat on the day. This industry group has been very choppy lately. That tells me that opportunities in that group must be selective right now. I still like the natural gas producers at this time.

3. The US Dollar Index (DXY) is pulling back today. That is helping gold today, the precious metal is trading higher by 0.80% this morning. As you know the daily chart of gold was trading into support and that is holding at this time.

4. War in Ukraine and Russia is increasing in intensity. This is usually a positive for precious metals so we will have to continue to monitor the precious metals closely.

5. Bitcoin is strong again today trading higher by 2.0%. The popular crypto currency actually looks fine on the daily chart and may trade higher in the near term. Just remember, the larger time frame chart are still bearish and are signaling another decline down to 11,000. SEC investigates Robinhood for crypto commingling.