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This is your Daily Sugar Price Tracker with Vanessa Clark podcast.
Welcome to Daily Sugar Price Tracker with Vanessa Clark. I'm Vanessa, and today is Friday, November 28th, 2025. I'm here to break down the latest sugar market movements and give you the insights you need to understand what's happening with this critical commodity.
Let's start with today's trading action. On the Zhengzhou Commodity Exchange, the most active sugar contract for January 2026 delivery closed higher, gaining 2 yuan or about 28 cents to settle at 5,400 yuan per tonne. That's a positive sign after weeks of pressure on sugar prices.
Speaking of pressure, the sugar market has been under significant headwinds. Earlier this month, London sugar hit a 4 point 75 year low, and New York sugar slumped to a 5 year low. The main culprit? A projected global sugar surplus. The International Sugar Organization is forecasting a 1 point 625 million metric ton surplus for 2025 to 2026, which represents a dramatic swing from last year's deficit of 2 point 916 million metric tons.
Why the turnaround? Production is surging in major sugar producing nations. India just raised its 2025 to 2026 production forecast to 31 million metric tons, up nearly 19 percent year over year. Thailand, the world's third largest producer, is expected to produce 10 point 5 million metric tons this season, up 5 percent. And Brazil, the global heavyweight, continues to dominate with expected production of 44 point 7 million metric tons.
Global sugar production overall is projected to reach between 185 and 189 million metric tons for 2025 to 2026, which would be a record or near record high. Meanwhile, global consumption is expected to increase only modestly at about 1 point 4 percent.
Here's what's interesting though. Despite all this supply pressure, we saw sugar futures rally sharply this week after StoneX cut Brazil's 2026 to 2027 sugar production estimate. There's also emerging support from India, where the food ministry is considering boosting ethanol prices, which could push more sugar cane toward ethanol production rather than sugar, tightening supplies.
Additionally, India's food ministry recently limited sugar exports to 1 point 5 million metric tons for the 2025 to 2026 season, lower than earlier expectations. These policy moves are providing some underlying support to prices.
For traders and consumers following this market, the key takeaway is that while structural oversupply remains a challenge for prices, there are potential supply side wildcards that could develop. Keep watching Brazil's harvest pace, India's policy decisions around ethanol and exports, and global demand for any real catalysts.
Thanks so much for tuning in to Daily Sugar Price Tracker. I'm Vanessa Clark. Be sure to subscribe and join me tomorrow for the latest sugar market updates. See you next time.
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This content was created in partnership and with the help of Artificial Intelligence AI.