DeepDives

Macro analyst Lyn Alden says the system cannot stop and the four-year Bitcoin cycle is over. This episode weighs her liquidity, gold and Bitcoin claims against the record, with dates and markers that will decide who was right.

Reserve status as a burden, the lenders who are really a financial alliance, and a region being repriced: the third examination of one long conversation, tested against the record.

The artificial-intelligence boom is being financed with debt that competes with government borrowing, and the jobs it ends may be replaced by a programmable income with conditions attached. This episode tests those claims against the record.

A forty-trillion-dollar debt, a quarter of it rolling over within months, and buyers borrowing in yen. This episode states one outside thesis at full strength, weighs it against the published record, and sets the markers that show who was right.

China borrows for ten years at one and a half percent - the lowest of any major economy. An examination of who buys those bonds and why, the five instruments that set the price, the savers already migrating toward the exits, and what finally ends the most complete financial repression in the modern world.

The largest oil supply shock in history, and crude futures sit near $97 after falling below pre-war levels in June. An examination with real numbers: the data war over Hormuz, the strategic reserves near their floor, the documented futures trades under federal investigation, and the real shortage hiding in the diesel price.

Every risk this series has covered, given an empirically measurable stage ladder — and where the evidence puts us on each one today.

Luke Gromen and Lyn Alden's thesis on the bond market, inflation and the debasement trade — set against the thesis this series has published, agreements credited, refinements argued.

The claim that China already ate its bitterness and is now the only major economy with low yields — examined at its strongest, with the incentives named.

The lending market with no public prices, translated for the investor who knows equities and is meeting credit for the first time.