I have a view of where the United States is in its economic cycle that I have had for quite some time, and that has substantially informed many of the macro assumptions I bring to portfolio management. I have shared this overarching worldview many times over the years in Dividend Cafe and elsewhere, and I am constantly refining it, analyzing it, and even challenging it.

It has the word “deflation” in it, though I really believe the term “Japanification” is a better encapsulation of my perspective. “Deflation” is often associated with “depression” and no one in their right mind believes we are in another “great depression.” And of course, the boom of inflation that we saw in 2021 and 2022 did not create a lot of discussion about the threat of deflation (like worrying about freezing to death in a heat wave). But temperatures do get very cold in the same places that they get very hot (I just made up that analogy right there). And as I have written before, there was nothing in the 2021-22 inflation that remotely contradicted my macroeconomic thesis.

So what I want to do today is re-hash the greater macroeconomic view that I believe properly frames our perspective at The Bahnsen Group. Some history is needed, some updated data, and some general understanding of what is making this road to Japanification tick. I promise it won’t be boring.

Okay, I don’t promise it won’t be boring if you are still reading desperate to get to some juicy tabloid gossip. But if you are still reading because you need a little more E-conomic talk and a little less E! Channel in your life, then you have come to the right place. Let’s jump in to the Dividend Cafe …

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