Sign up to save your podcasts
Or
Share Demography Unplugged with Neil Howe
Share to email
Share to Facebook
Share to X
Share to email
Share to Facebook
Share to X
Or
Demography Unplugged with Neil Howe
Demography Unplugged with Neil Howe episodes
- Eye of the Storm, Dems vs China, Boris' Approval SoarsIn this latest issue of my weekly podcast, I discuss the market "narrative" surrounding COVID19. The market expects immediate and total recovery with no second wave, unlimited stimulus support, and for the market to rise higher than before. But right now, we are in the eye of the storm. By June, we could be seeing the start of a second wave and waking up to the true economic damage. Continued stimulus? Right now, both Democrats and Republicans support big government spending. We expect m...55 min
- Madness of Reopening, Indicators Hit Bottom, and Big Brother is WatchingIn this latest issue of my weekly podcast, I discuss my three crisis signals: the US dollar, commodities, and gold. The USD continues to ride high despite Fed success in sinking our sinking yield curve. On the commodities side, oil has spiraled downward, going as low as $-36. And gold remain elevated but slightly down over the last week. The equity rebound momentum is slowing, and IVol has been flat at just over 40.What's the plan? The US, along with other nations, still doesn't have an exit ...51 min
- Market Panic, Political Strain, History of Pandemics, and Where's the Exit?In this latest issue of my weekly podcast, I discuss measures of market panic that have either started to ease or that remain elevated. On the easing side, implied volatility as measured by the VIX is today around 40: That's only half of its peak of just over 80 a few weeks back, but it's still twice as high as it was two months ago. Credit spreads have also shrunk but are still closer to their highs than to the pre-crisis levels. On the elevated side, the USD, relative to other major currenc...54 min
- All COVID-19: Severity, Duration, Policy Response, Market ReactionIn this latest issue of my weekly podcast, I discuss the big question that is the focus of the world's attention: the trajectory and duration of the COVID-19 pandemic. If you look at total cases or deaths in RoC terms--or look at the geographic extent of the pandemic-- the news over the past week has not been good. There is no letup in the total exponential growth rates. 9 days ago, we were at 10,000 deaths outside of China. Last night we were at 38,000 deaths. Ten days from now we are on tra...36 min
- Recession or Depression? QE Infinity & the Opening of Fiscal FloodgatesIn this latest issue of my weekly podcast, I discuss whether this recession could become an extended depression. Public figures and economists are projecting single or double quarter collapses in U.S. GDP never before experienced since the birth of quarterly data in 1947. Most major economies in the world are going into shutdown mode in response to the COVID-19 threat, and that's like turning off a giant master switch in the global economy that no one has ever seen turned off before.3M Treasu...38 min
- Markets Swoon, Fed Zeroes Out, Fiscal Tsunami Looms, & Fourth Turning Grinds OnIn this latest issue of my weekly podcast, I discuss the epic market swings. As of Monday close, the SP500 is down -29.5% from its recent high 18 days ago. Over the last week, hundreds of stocks we're hitting circuit breaker limits every day. On two mornings, Monday and last Thursday, the entire NYSE hit it's negative 7% circuit just after opening. The VIX hit 83, an all-time record. It surpasses the 2 readings of 80 during the worst of the '08 crisis.The yield curve is in turmoil due to Fed ...40 min
- Equities, Yield Curve, Global Econ, Crude Oil, and Sanders All Take a Swan Dive5:50: In this latest issue of my weekly podcast, I discuss which equities crashed and by how much. Energy and financials have fallen the fastest. Energy due to the plunge in oil prices, and financial due to the plunge in the yield curve. Around the rest of the world, the equity plunge was equally steep. The Global Dow is down 15.2% over the last 10 days and was down 7.7% yesterday. The markets that have fallen the most are mainly emerging market countries in Latin America and the weaker econo...38 min
- Yield Curve Steepens, Corona Spreads, Finns Take Leave, Pundits Fear The Bern.2:50: In this latest issue of my weekly podcast, I discuss how the yield-curve inversion has drastically steepened once again. By end of market yesterday, the 10Y closed at only 1 bp above its all-time low yield on July 5, 2016. Meanwhile, the 3M dropped to 1.53%. 10 days ago, the 10Y-3M inversion was thin, only 2 bp. At close of market yesterday, it had widened to 15 bp. The odds of another cut are now sharply rising. See "Power of the Spread, Revisited" for further yield-curve analysis.&nbs...44 min
- Trump’s Economy, Irish Nationalism, Goodbye Biden, Hello Sanders3:00: Is all this bullishness related to Trump? A lot of it hinged on President Trump's extraordinary week from his acquittal to his State of the Union address to the Democratic mess in Iowa. The possibility of Trump's re-election this year suddenly ratcheted much higher. That's positive to a lot of global investors who like Trump. And it's even positive to a lot of investors who dislike Trump because it removes uncertainty.12:35: Coronavirus remains worrisome. According to the official numbe...36 min
About Demography Unplugged with Neil Howe
From the publisher's feed
Exciting news for all listeners: Neil Howe's podcast is undergoing an exciting transformation and emerging with a brand-new name—"Trend Watch". From now on, all upcoming episodes will be…
exclusively available in full on Substack. But that's not all—Neil's new Substack newsletter launching August 21, 2023, will feature thought-provoking insights on demographic, economic, and generational trends. Stay informed, stay engaged, and stay ahead of the trends!
Visit: www.demographyunplugged.com to subscribe.
Neil Howe’s podcast is designed to help savvy investors and business leaders uncover hidden trends and critical developments driving world markets and economies. It’s like peering into the future. Discover the likely winners (and losers) of “big ideas” as renowned demographer Neil Howe – the guy who coined the term “Millennial” – distills game-changing new developments down to their essence.
Neil Howe is an acclaimed historian, economist, and demographer and the bestselling author (with William Strauss) of The Fourth Turning, the New York Times Bestselling follow-up book, The Fourth Turning is Here, as well as over a dozen books on demographic and social change. The nation’s leading thinker on today’s generations—who they are, what motivates them, and how they will shape America’s future—Howe is Managing Director of Demography at Hedgeye Risk Management, an independent financial research firm, as well as President of LifeCourse Associates, which serves hundreds of corporate, nonprofit, and government clients.