DFS_PhD DFS analysis show

We talk about custom projections and rules we are thinking of using for the Thursday slate. We talk about: projecting the NYG RB group and projecting the NYG WR group. I suggest overprojecting them and constraining the mix using group rules to model a game where they actually score points. I also talk about using snap counts to guide your gut, using ford and chubb as an example. Yes Ford smashed bc Chubb went down, but he was getting massive snaps even before. We zero in on two plays like that on this slate: Daniel Bellinger and Ronnie Bell. They are out there. They could theoretically catch a pass.

MLB Main Slate 09/19 on #DraftKings:

Studs to Stuff: Snell, Strider, Castillo

Leverage Arms: Gallen, Blackburn

stacks we backs: Cle, Was, CWS

fade we made: Oakland and Wrigley

MLB Showdown and Main Slate 09/18 on #DraftKings:

CPT's to win: Naylor, Melendez, Massey (~14-13-10% leverage as optimal)

Main:

Leverage Arms: Sears, Woo

Studs to Stuff: Lynn, Wacha

stacks we backs: MIL, CWS, Hou

fade we made: Petco and Busch hitters

We discuss what it takes to win on a short slate:

Weird Stacks

Leaving Salary on the Table

Making Some Stands

and then I give you my biggest stand for the slate rn:

Pitt receivers are underprojected, esp Calvin Austin .

MLB Main Slate 09/17 on #DraftKings:

Studs to Stuff: Morton, Woodruff, Luzardo

If you need them: Cease, Rodon, Jackson

stacks we backs: Min, Hou

NFL Main Slate notes 09/17:

Cordarelle out, Allgeier WAY underowned now (10-15% me)

Value plays: Kelley, Dillon, Allgeier Studs to stuff: Adams, Pollard, Saquon (7.5%??)

MLB Main Slate 09/15 on #DraftKings:

Studs to Stuff: Canning, Miller, Greene

Leverage Arms: Peterson, Webb, Javier

stacks we backs: SF, Hou, Min, KC

fade we made: Cleveland and Mets game bats / weather

MLB Early and Main Slate 09/14 on #DraftKings:

CHECK COORS WEATHER (assuming no go)

early leverage: Olson

studs: Perez, Keller

stacks: Pit, Mia

main-

Studs: Gausman, Bradish

leverage: Maeda, Webb

stacks: Min, Bos, NYY

MLB Early and Main Slate 09/13 on #DraftKings:

early leverage: Silseth

studs: Allen, Harrison

stacks: Coors

main-

SLAM Gallen and Snell

leverage: Brown, Kikuchi, Clevinger

stacks: NYY, Ari, KC

MLB Showdown and Main Slate 09/12 #DraftKings:

CPT's to win (% leverage HR vs CPT): Casas (17.2%), Stanton (16.5%)

Main:

Leverage Arms: Woo, Sandoval, Quantrill, Littel

Studs to Stuff: Ryan and Verlander

stacks we backs: Chc, Col, Hou

fade we made: Oracle hitters

MLB Showdown and Main Slate 09/11 #DraftKings:

CPT's to win (% leverage HR vs CPT): Riley (17.6), Castellanos (17.4), Trae (16.2)

Main:

Leverage Arms: Williams, Cease

Studs to Stuff: Glasnow, Woodruff

stacks we backs: Chc, Col, Hou

fade we made: Oracle and Target hitters