DFS_PhD DFS analysis show

MLB Showdown and Main Slate 09/08 #DraftKings:

CPT's to win: Bellinger (+15%), Swanson (+13%), Gurriel (+13%)

Main:

Guys To Try: Senga, Kikuchi, Allen, Canning

stacks we backs: LAD, Mia, Was

fade we made: Target hitters

MLB Main Slate 09/07 on #DraftKings:

Stuffing: Pepiot, Rodon, Garrett

stacks we backs: STL, ATL, LAA

fade we made: Fried, Quantrill (upside?)

MLB Early and Main Slate 09/06 on #DraftKings:

early leverage: Davies

studs: Peralta, Wheeler

stacks: Min, ChC, SF

main-

leverage: Schmidt, Sandoval

SLAM Strider

stacks: NYM, Was, NYY

MLB Main Slate 09/05 on #DraftKings:

leverage arms: Singer, Pfaadt

studs to stuff: Cease and Kremer

stacks we backs: Ari, Hou, ChC

light fades we made: Cole and Bassitt, price a little steep

In this video (made on Sunday, NOT using contest sims), I review the strategy I used for Game 1 of the NBA Finals, where I chopped the Milly, and Game 2, where I won the followup ToC semis ticket. We start with geometric mean ownership filtering, discuss how and when it stands in as a proxy for duplicates, and then on to the importance of salary limits, to avoid unnecessarily overduped lineups. Our approximation of geometric mean ownership assumes independence between people in lineup, and if everybody jams the same guys to fill salary, that's not true. So I set a limit $200 below max, in addition to the geometric mean limit, and then set a min uniques of 3 or 4, depending on how I feel about the resulting pool (I did not do that step for NBA, but seems like generally good practice for a 150-maxer).

MLB Main Slate 09/04 on #DraftKings:

leverage arm: Ragans

studs to stuff: Kelly, Berrios, Steele

stacks we backs: Chc, Cin, Ari, KC

fade we made: mediocre pitchers

MLB Main Slate 09/03 on #DraftKings:

leverage arms: Kopech, Thompson

studs to stuff: Sale, Alcantara

stacks we backs: Bos, Tex, Mia, Min

fade we made: Kirby, Maeda

MLB Main Slate 09/02 on #DraftKings:

leverage arms: Peterson, Clevinger

studs to stuff: Snell and Montgomery

stacks we backs: Tor, Col, don't get cute

fade we made: Brown, Rom

MLB Showdown and Main 09/01 #DraftKings:

CPT's to win: Bellinger (+19%), Tauchmann (+14.5%), Happ (+14%)

Main:

Jamming: Paxton, Peralta, and Scherzer

leverage options: Gilbert, Senga, Wacha

stacks we backs: Tor and Col

Showdown:

Kelly Carpenter CPT 18% HR leverage

Main:

Jamming: Strider and Avila

leverage options: Garrett, Adon

stacks we backs: SD, Mia, ATL