DH Unplugged

DH Unplugged

By Andrew Horowitz and JC DvorakBusinessNewsInvestingBusiness NewsCareers
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DH Unplugged episodes

  • DHUnplugged #733: Santa Quantum!

    Shutdown….. AVERTED

    Mergers – Auto Industry big move

    Lots of Trump Talk

    The Market’s new favorite stocks

    PLUS we are now on Spotify and Amazon Music/Podcasts!

    Click HERE for Show Notes and Links

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    DONATIONS ? Thank you for all who gave to the Thanksgiving Holiday Campaign...

    Warm-Up

    - Shutdown..... AVERTED
    - Mergers - Auto Industry big move
    - Lots of Trump Talk
    - Deli Stock Scheme - Update
    - Holiday Tidings!

    - Markets

    - S&P 500 Equal weight down 6% MTD, Small Caps down 8%
    - The New favs? Quantum Computing Stocks - Santa Like them.....
    - Index inclusion has become a thing

    Checking out the early CTP Cup Standings

    EVERYONE IS IN! - 7 Contestants....

    Fed Meeting Dec 18th

    - Fed freaked out markets
    - All of a sudden they are projecting that inflation is not going to come down to their 2% level into 2026
    - DJIA was donw 1000 points and it was an ugly day overall.
    - Onc day later, PCE comes out not too far aay from assumptions and market takes off
    - Just goes to show that

    DJIA - Records?

    - Follow up - it was 10 days and the last time that happened was 1974

    Meanwhile - XMAS Rally

    - Once big day down, then a test and BOUNCE
    - Most of the Fed Day losses have been wipe out - still much damage in December
    --- Once again - Mega cap holding things up
    ---- EVEN though 10Yr >4.6%  - this is an important price point... Failed  couple of times before.

    Quantum Computing Stocks

    - Ever since Alphabet (Google) announced that they made progress, been some crazy moves on a few names - with YTD returns
    -- D-Wave Quantum Inc  QBTS  (825%)
    -- Rigetti Computing Inc   RGTI  (1,050%)
    -- Quantum Computing Inc   QUBT  (1,900%)
    -- Defiance Quantum ETF   QTUM (51%)
    -- IONQ Inc    IONQ   (240%)
    ---(none seem to be making any money  - actually losing a ton)

    More Quantum

    - Willow's speed is almost incomprehensible — according to Google, it's able to perform a computation in under five minutes that would take one of today's fastest supercomputers 10 septillion years to solve. Ten septillion is 10,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000 years.
    - Concern has turned to the potential for this technology to break down crypto (or other) cryptography.
    --- It may take years - but this could be something we need to watch as a byproduct, the need for better security from quantum hacks

    Auto Merger

    - Japanese automakers Nissan and Honda on Monday announced they had entered into official talks to merge and create the world's third-largest automaker by sales.
    - The deal would aim to share intelligence and resources and deliver economies of scale and synergies while protecting both brands
    - Nissan's strategic partner Mitsubishi has been offered the chance to join the new group and will take a decision by the end of January 2025.
    - Lots of things to iron out before this deal gets done

    Index Traders - Hang on...

    - Huge moves to reset these days
    - Companies are competing to get to NASDAQ and NYSE to gain inclusion as they know share prices will potentially pop
    - Palatntir is banking on that as they said in their recent announcement and one reason was to get inclusion in the NASDAQ 100
    - These kind of index changes has buig impacts on stocks
    - - ALSO, there should be some movement over the next month as there will be re-balancing going on as 2024 big run for markets/stocks

    Trump Talk/Plans

    - Trump said he will not let the canal fall into the 'wrong hands'
    - Trump accused Panama of charging excessive fees to use the canal
    - Panama's President Mulino defends canal's independence and fees
    - US handed over control of the canal in 1999
    - Talk that we could take it back
    - Twitter: "Every square meter of the Panama Canal and the surrounding area belongs to Panama and will continue belonging (to Panama)," Mulino said in his statement, which was released on X.
    --------Trump then responded to Mulino: "We'll see about that!"

    More Talk

    - "I told the European Union that they must make up their tremendous deficit with the United States by the large scale purchase of our oil and gas. Otherwise, it is TARIFFS all the way," Trump posted on his Truth Social platform.
    - Who did he tell exactly?
    -- Where does he come up up with this stuff?
    - According to U.S. figures, the country's goods and services trade deficit with the European Union was $131.3 billion in 2022. The U.S. was the biggest recipient of EU goods in 2023, accounting for 19.7% of its exports. (Maybe we should make something that people want to buy?)

    Greenland - Again?

    - “For purposes of National Security and Freedom throughout the World, the United States of America feels that the ownership and control of Greenland is an absolute necessity,” Trump said in a statement on Truth Social.

    Fraud?

    - The Consumer Financial Protection Bureau on Friday sued the operator of the Zelle payments network and the three U.S. banks that dominant transactions on it, alleging that the firms failed to properly investigate fraud complaints or give victims reimbursements.
    - "The nation's largest banks felt threatened by competing payment apps, so they rushed to put out Zelle," CFPB Director Rohit Chopra said in a statement. "By their failing to put in place proper safeguards, Zelle became a gold mine for fraudsters, while often leaving victims to fend for themselves."

    Govy Shutdown

    - President Joe Biden signed a bill into law Saturday that averts a government shutdown, bringing a final close to days of upheaval after Congress approved a temporary funding plan just past the deadline and refused President-elect Donald Trump’s core debt demands in the package.
    - Even though there is a desire for cutting costs by the Trump team, President-Elect Trump wanted to raise or suspend the debt ceiling in the latest bill.
    - US Governtment debt is $36 Billion Now...123% Debt to GDP

    Debt to GDP

    What is with the drones?

    - The Federal Aviation Administration on Wednesday temporarily banned drone flights over 22 areas across New Jersey amid complaints of strange and often bright drones in the night sky.
    - "At the request of federal security partners, the FAA published 22 Temporary Flight Restrictions (TFRs) prohibiting drone flights over critical New Jersey infrastructure," the FAA said in a statement to CNBC.
    - The TFRs will last until Jan. 17 and cover large parts of central and northern New Jersey, including Elizabeth, Camden and Jersey City, the second most populous city in the Garden State.

    Deli Duo

    - Father, son plead guilty in $100 million New Jersey deli stock scheme
    - The Cokers and Patten each admitted their roles in the scheme to artificially boost the stock price of Hometown, whose only real business asset was the Your Hometown Deli in Paulsboro, as well as the shares of a shell company then known as E-Waste.
    - Hometown's stock price rose by more than 900% as a result of the scheme. The price of E-Waste rose by nearly 20,000%.
    - The scam, which ran from 2014 through September 2022, involved coordinated trading of the stocks of both companies, creating a false impression of demand for their shares, which traded on OTC Marketplace.
    - The defendants during the conspiracy gained control of the companies' management and shares, with the aim of using them as vehicles for reverse mergers with privately held companies. Both companies ended up being merged in such deals with private firms.

    Lilly - Another Benefit of Zepbound

    - The Food and Drug Administration approved Eli Lilly's blockbuster weight loss drug Zepbound for treating patients with the most common sleep-related breathing disorder, the drugmaker announced Friday, expanding its use and possibly its insurance coverage in the U.S.
    - The weekly injection is now cleared for patients with obesity and moderate-to-severe obstructive sleep apnea, which refers to breathing interrupted during sleep due to narrowed or blocked airways.
    - An estimated 80 million patients in the U.S. experience the disease, according to Eli Lilly. Roughly 20 million of those people have moderate-to-severe forms of the disease, but 85% of cases go undiagnosed, the company told CNBC earlier this year.

    TEMU Competition

    - Two weeks before Black Friday, Amazon quietly added a new section to the top of its mobile app. Called Haul, it's a mobile-only area for ultra-low-price items, primarily shipped directly from China.
    - Haul is Amazon's answer to the booming popularity of apps such as PDD Holdings' Temu and fast-fashion retailer Shein. Amazon told CNBC that Haul has had millions of unique customer visits since it launched in November.
    - Like Temu, Haul offers items at bargain prices, such as sneakers for $9.98, kitchenware for $5.99 and phone cases for $2.99.
    --- H&C Clients own Akazon as well as PDD - TEMU Owner

    Pepsi

    - Multi-Year lows
    - Frito-Lay segment not doing well- packaged foods not doing well
    - Interesting chart

    Pepsi Chart

    Bankruptcy

    - The Container store filed for reorg
    - The Container Store said this doesn't mark the end of the retailer. The company said it filed for voluntary protection under Chapter 11 in the bankruptcy court for the Southern District of Texas as it plans to "implement a recapitalization transaction to bolster its financial position, fuel growth initiatives, and drive enhanced long-term profitability."
    - Need to stop this practice as it breeds poor management.
    ---- If bankrupt, management is out and no pre-bancrupcy bonuses

    2025 predictions?

    - Stock market
    - Bond Yields?
    - Bitcoin?
    - Gold?

    Next week  - we have a great show lined up - by our good friend Ryan Rediske -

    HAPPY NEW YEAR!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!

     

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    2024 - DH Closest to The Pin Cup - Up and Running


    Winners will be getting great stuff like the new DHUnplugged Shirts (Designed by Jimbo) -

    PLUS a one-of-a-kind DHUnplugged CTP Winner's certificate..

     

    FED AND CRYPTO LIMERICKS

     

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    1 hr 6 min
  • DHUnplugged #732: Fanning the Flames

    Kissing Ass is good for the wallet

    Fed is about to meet and make a rate decision

    Time’s Person of the Year!

    Whistleblower found dead

    PLUS we are now on Spotify and Amazon Music/Podcasts!

    Click HERE for Show Notes and Links

    DHUnplugged is now streaming live - with listener chat. Click on link on the right sidebar.

    Love the Show? Then how about a Donation?

    Follow John C. Dvorak on Twitter

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    DONATIONS ? Thank you for all who gave to the Thanksgiving Holiday Campaign...

    Warm-Up

    - Kissing Ass is good for the wallet
    - Fed is about to meet and make a rate decision
    - Person of the Year!
    - Whistleblower found dead

    - Markets

    - Odd - DJIA down for 7 days, NASDAQ can't be stopped (TSLA pushing this time - once again a reason to look at market cap weightings)
    - Fanning the flames - A new name into NASDAQ 100
    - Earnings - A few interesting data points
    - Social Security benefits increase
    - Yes and No, Inflation and No Inflation
    - Not since... 2018 or 1978?

    Reminder -  the CTP Contestants for 2024 CTP Cup

    Michael Bowling

    Kirk Saathoff
    Eric Harvey
    Chad Laajala
    Tim Dewey
    Paul Kinder
    Anson Brady (2023 CTP Cup Winner)
    ---Emails have gone out...

    Fed Meeting Dec 18th

    - 89% probability of a 0.25% rate cut
    - Fed has its back to the wall - markets are dictating
    - No reason to believe that they need a cut, although the would not want to worry markets or surprise them in any way
    - All reporting shows that they will do the cut, back off a little as to the amount of potential cuts coming in recognition of the fact that the economy is still running well

    DJIA - Records?

    - The DJIA has been down for 8 days in a row and that has not happened since 2018.
    - If the DJIA declines today, that would take us back to the 1970's, 1978 to be exact when there was a 9 day decline.
    - But, that is the DJIA, the NASDAQ an SP500 have been holding up.
    - Moreover, the fall for the DJIA this month is less that 3%, so not much damage done to the index itself.

    Another Sinkhole Warning

    - SP500 equal weighted is down more than 3% for the MTD.
    - SP500 up slightly MTD
    - NASDAQ 100 up moer than 5%
    - Small-caps down 3%

    BUT - Wait....

    - A measure of wholesale price rose more than expected in November, adding fuel to the belief that progress in bringing down inflation has slowed, the Bureau of Labor Statistics reported Thursday.
    - On an annual basis, PPI rose 3%, the biggest advance since February 2023.
    - This is after an inline CPI number.
    - Rates are on the rise for bonds, as expected
    --- Mark this date - inflation could make a comeback in 2025 and totally offside the fed (And they are fanning the flames )

    AND Consumers are Spending

    - November Retail Sales 0.7% vs. 0.5% consensus; prior revised to 0.5% from 0.4%

    But - ISM Composite - Rolling Over

    ISM Composite

    CHIPS

    - Shares of Broadcom popped more than 21% Friday morning, pushing the company’s market cap beyond $1 trillion for the first time. It will be Broadcom’s best trading day on record if the move holds until the closing bell.
    The move comes after the company reported fourth-quarter results that beat Wall Street’s expectations for earnings and showed strong artificial intelligence revenue growth.
    - Broadcom reported $14.05 billion in revenue for the fourth quarter, up 51% year over year but shy of the $14.09 billion expected by analysts according to LSEG. In Broadcom’s semiconductor solutions group, which includes its AI chips, revenue increased 12% to $8.23 billion from $8.03 billion a year ago.

    More Chips

    - US planning on restricting AI  Chips around the world
    - Planning on closing China's backdoor access
    -Washington plans rules limiting semiconductor shipments to some countries accused of supplying Beijing
    - NVDA, MSFT, GOOG, GOOGL, AMD, INTC, SMH

    Nuclear - getting some traction

    - SMRs - Small Nuclear Reactors
    - Small modular reactors, with a power capacity of 300 megawatts or less, are about a third the size of the average reactors in the current U.S. fleet. The goal is to build them in a process similar to an assembly line, with plants rolling out of factories in just a handful of pieces that are then put together at the site.
    - Only three SMRs are operational in the world (China and Russia)
    - Keep an eye on the news for utilities that will be moving into nuclear - demand is high - theme for 2025

    EVEN More Nukes

    - GE Vernova is aiming to deploy small nuclear reactors across the developed world over the next decade, staking out a leadership position in a budding technology that could play a central role in meeting surging electricity demand and reducing carbon dioxide emissions.
    - GE Vernova is the spinoff of General Electric's former energy business. The company's stock has more than doubled since listing on the New York Stock Exchange last April
    - The U.S. government wants to triple nuclear power by 2050 to shore up an electric grid that is under growing pressure from surging power demand. But large nuclear projects, in the U.S. at least, are notoriously plagued by multi-billion dollar budgets, cost overruns, delayed construction timelines and, sometimes, cancellations.

    Tech Wars

    - Geopolitical tensions are brewing globally over the cutting of subsea cables — critical infrastructure powering cross-border internet connectivity — in the Baltic Sea.
    - The severing (a week or so ago) of the cables prompted warnings of "sabotage" and potential "hybrid" warfare targeting key infrastructure in the West amid further escalations in the ongoing war in Ukraine.
    -  Last week, two undersea cables were severed in the Baltic Sea, raising suspicions that subsea communication systems may be the latest target of sabotage against the West, as it clashes with Russia over the country's invasion of Ukraine.
    -One of the cables disrupted was C-Lion1, which links Finland and Germany and is owned by Cinia, a Finnish state-controlled IT firm. Spanning nearly 1,200 kilometers (730 miles), it is the only direct connection of its kind between Finland and Central Europe.
    -The other cable damaged was one connecting Lithuania and Sweden, BCS East West Interlink.
    --- Both are either mostly or fully repaired already and had alternative routes to move data when was cut....

    Musk - SpaceX

    - Valuation rockets higher
    - SpaceX is in discussions to sell insider shares that could boost the value of Elon Musk’s rocket and satellite company to around $350 billion, according to people familiar with the matter.
    - That would be a significant premium to a previously mulled valuation of $255 billion as reported by Bloomberg News and other media outlets just last month. It would also cement SpaceX’s status as the most valuable private US company.
    - Earlier this year SpaceX did a tender at a valuation of ~ $211 billion

    Kissing Ass

    - We have seen this before - and now it is a smart move as a little brown nose goes a long way
    - Softbank CEO Masayoshi Son will announce a $100 billion investment in the U.S. over the next four years during a Monday visit to President-elect Donald Trump's residence Mar-a-Lago in Palm Beach, Florida.
    - Tim Cook had dinner with Presedent-Elect Trump

    Person of the Year!

    - Time Magazine has named Donald Trump as their person of the year for the second time.
    - Trump was first named person of the year in 2016 after winning the US presidential election.
    - Last Thursday, The Republican president-elect is rang the opening bell at the New York Stock Exchange to commemorate the honor alongside several of his family members.

    NASDAQ 100 In and Out

    - MicroStrategy is in! Talk about fanning the flames
    --- MicroStrategy is a money-losing software company that is largely a leveraged bitcoin play. It's sold stock and debt to buy up more and more of the cryptocurrency. Its market cap is at $82 billion.
    - On the way out? Moderna and Super Micro Computer are among the smallest Nasdaq 100 members.
    - Palatir is also a name that is in the mix to be added to NAZ100

    Whistleblower found Dead

    - A 26-year-old former OpenAI researcher, Suchir Balaji, was found dead in his San Francisco apartment in recent weeks, CNBC has confirmed.
    - Balaji left OpenAI earlier this year and raised concerns publicly that the company had allegedly violated U.S. copyright law while developing its popular ChatGPT chatbot."
    - "The manner of death has been determined to be suicide,"
    - The San Francisco Police Department said in an e-mail that on the afternoon of Nov. 26, officers were called to an apartment on Buchanan Street to conduct a "wellbeing check." They found a deceased adult male, and discovered "no evidence of foul play" in their initial investigation, the department said.

    Earnings

    - Adobe shares fell 13% on Thursday and headed for their steepest drop since March after the software vendor issued disappointing revenue guidance.
    - Sales in the fiscal first quarter will be between $5.63 billion and $5.68 billion, Adobe said in its fourth-quarter earnings report late Wednesday. Analysts on average were expecting revenue of $5.73 billion
    - Analysts at TD Cowen downgraded the stock to hold from buy, while Wells Fargo kept its buy rating following what it called a "frustrating '24" for the company. The stock is now down 20% for the year
    - AI hype/hope unrealized

    Social Security Benefits Benefit?

    - Last month, the House of Representatives on Nov. 12 passed the Social Security Fairness Act by an overwhelming 327 to 75 majority.
    - The proposal would eliminate rules that reduce Social Security benefits for those who also receive income from public pensions, roughly around 2.8 million people.
    - Senate needs to vote - but this would be adding to the deficit and that is not a popular side right now.
    - Needs to rush this along so that Biden can pass it

    Interesting

    - The U.K. is drawing up measures to regulate the use of copyrighted content by tech companies to train their artificial intelligence models.
    - The British government on Tuesday kicked off a consultation which aims to increase clarity for both the creative industries and AI developers when it comes to both how intellectual property is obtained and then used by AI firms for training purposes.

     

    Love the Show? Then how about a Donation?

    2024 - DH Closest to The Pin Cup - Up and Running

    Winners will be getting great stuff like the new DHUnplugged Shirts (Designed by Jimbo) -

    PLUS a one-of-a-kind DHUnplugged CTP Winner's certificate..

     

    FED AND CRYPTO LIMERICKS

     

    See this week’s stock picks HERE

    Follow John C. Dvorak on Twitter

    Follow Andrew Horowitz on Twitter

    1 hr 2 min
  • DHUnplugged #731: Stacking $$$

    Big – Run – Crypto Pops and Drops

    Stacking the Admin with $$$ Peeps

    HUGE Baseball Deal

    Equifax Class Action – Finally a payout?

    PLUS we are now on Spotify and Amazon Music/Podcasts!

    Click HERE for Show Notes and Links

    DHUnplugged is now streaming live - with listener chat. Click on link on the right sidebar.

    Love the Show? Then how about a Donation?

    Follow John C. Dvorak on Twitter

    Follow Andrew Horowitz on Twitter

    DONATIONS ? Thank you for all who gave to the Thanksgiving Holiday Campaign...

    Warm-Up

    - Big - Run - Crypto Pops and Drops
    - Stacking the Admin with $$$ Peeps
    - Baseball Deal
    - Equifax Class Action - Finally a payout?

    Markets

    - Employment Report
    - This week's CPI and PPI Data
    - Santa Rally - Could be just be a couple weeks away

    - - Trump Limericks (AI)

    ANNOUNCING the CTP Contestants for 2024 CTP Cup

    Michael Bowling

    Kirk Saathoff
    Eric Harvey
    Chad Laajala
    Tim Dewey
    Paul Kinder
    Anson Brady (2023 CTP Cup Winner)
    ---Emails have gone out...

    Regarding AMD

    - BofA Securities downgraded Advanced Micro Devices (AMD) to Neutral from Buy, lower CY25/26 pf-EPS by 6%/8%ta $4.43/55.51, about -13%/-23% below consensus 55.09/57.11. Two factors:
    1) Higher competitive risks in Al against best-of-breed NVDA's dominance, and growing cloud preference for custom chips from MRVL/AVGO. limiting AMD's market share gain potential, and
    2) Potential for 1H'25E PC processor correction, after ~4O% HoH surge in AMD's 2H'24E client PC sales.  Shares are down 3%.

    Oracle Earnings

    - Oracle (ORCL -8%) is lower following its Q2 (Nov) earnings report last night.
    - The company reported a slight EPS miss, its second miss in the past three quarters.
    - Revenue rose 8.6% yr/yr to $14.06 bln, but that was also a bit light of analyst expectations.
    - The Q3 (Feb) adjusted EPS guidance of $1.47-1.51 was also lower than expected.
    - Oracle guided to Q3 revs of +7-9% (+9-11% CC), which we compute as $14.21-14.48 bln, which was also light, partly due to FX.

    Google Chip

    - Releases the Willow quantum computing chip
    - Google has unveiled a new chip which it claims takes five minutes to solve a problem that would currently take the world's fastest super computers ten septillion – or 10,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000 years – to complete.
    - However experts say Willow is, for now, a largely experimental device, meaning a quantum computer powerful enough to solve a wide range of real-world problems is still years - and billions of dollars - away.

    MLB Deal

    - The Mets on Sunday agreed to sign Juan Soto to a 15-year, $765 million contract, multiple sources said, by far the largest pact in Major League Baseball history.
    - The deal, which the Mets have not confirmed because it’s pending a physical, contains a $75 million signing bonus, an opt-out after five seasons and no deferred money.
    - The Mets will have the ability to void Soto’s opt-out clause after the 2029 season if they boost the average annual value of the final 10 years of his deal from $51 million to $55 million, according to a source.
    - In that case, the overall deal would be for 15 years and $805 million
    - Right and Left Fielder - with .288 Batting average
    - In 2024, he hit 41 homers and had 129 walks. It was his fourth season with at least 25 home runs and 125 walks. That's fourth-most in MLB history, behind only Barry Bonds (10 such seasons), Babe Ruth (10) and Ted Williams (eight).

    China - Back in the Spotlight

    - Disinflation again and profits slowing - China's inflation drops
    - China's producer price index declined for the 26th month. Producer inflation fell by 2.5% year on year in November...
    - Sunday announcement - China's leaders on Monday pledged "more proactive" fiscal measures and "moderately" looser monetary policy next year to boost domestic consumption, according to an official readout of a key policy meeting that outlined upcoming economic priorities.
    Hing Kong markets flying again and several stocks on the move
    - PDD   11%   NIO  15%   FUTU 23%   NTES 11%   BABA 8.5%   BIDU  9.6%

    Just in...(Started in 2017)

    - The Equifax Data Breach Settlement Agreement says any remaining funds in the Consumer Restitution Fund will be distributed to Settlement Class Members with valid claims.
    - You have a valid claim and are eligible for an additional payment. It will be sent to you by electronic pre-paid card. (Email just arrived....)

    Employment Report

    - The latest employment data likely cemented another interest-rate reduction by the Federal Reserve later this month but did little to clarify the monetary-policy outlook for 2025.
    - 4.2% Unemployment Rate
    - 4.5% wage growth
    - Better than though additions to the payrolls
    - Overall, it looks like it was a reasonably good report - HOWEVER - some cracks beneath the surface with minority jobs

    Jobs Report

    Fed Meeting Dec 18th

    - 89% probability of a 0.25% rate cut
    - Fed has its back to the wall - markets are dictating
    - No reason to believe that they need a cut, although the would not want to worry markets or surprise them in any way
    - All reporting shows that they will do the cut, back off a little as to the amount of potential cuts coming in recognition of the fact that the economy is still running well

    Trump Cabinet $$$$

    - 11 picks are billionaires
    - $340 billion total net worth
    --- Big chunk is Musk
    - Wealthiest administration in US History - by a long shot
    -- 3 more billionaires in the works
    - "CORRUPT ELITE" of Biden admin was only worth a total $118 Billion

    Trump News (Get used to it)

    - Now Trump says that he will not try to replace Jerome Powell
    - On Meet The Press he said: "No, I don't think so. I don't see it,"
    - "I think if I told him to [go], he would. But if I asked him to, he probably wouldn't," Trump told Welker.

    Trump EV Action

    - Donald Trump's transition team is considering canceling the U.S. Postal Service's contracts to electrify its delivery fleet, as part of a broader suite of executive orders targeting electric vehicles, according to three sources familiar with the plans.
    --- WHY????
    - Osh Kosh and Ford are the main providers of the EV trucks for the Postal Service.
    ---Multi Billion $$ contracts

    Last One

    - Trump aides contact Google, Meta, Snap over online drug sales
    - President-elect Donald Trump's transition team has invited five major tech companies, including Google , Microsoft  and Meta Platforms to a meeting in mid-December about dealing with online sales of drugs
    - This looks like non-prescription/illegal drug sales

    Retail Sales - Roundup

    - Final Tally - Record-breaking sales reported
    - Amazon saw the strongest growth on Black Friday
    - Americans spent roughly $10.8 billion online on Black Friday
    - Shein, Temu also post strong results

    UNH

    - Interesting how this is all becoming a thing
    --- Erupted into a real awakening about the health insurance industry
    - NYPD at press conference says person of interest named Luigi Mangione is in custody for murder of UNH executive Brian Thompson
    - Murder charges filed

    TikTok

    - Court upholds requirement for the divestment
    - A federal appeals court upheld a law requiring China-based ByteDance to sell the popular social media app TikTok or face an effective ban in the United States
    - The U.S. Court of Appeals in Washington, D.C., rejected TikTok’s argument that the ban is unconstitutional and violates the First Amendment rights of the 170 million Americans who use the app.
    - Unanimous Ruling

    Bribery!

    - A subsidiary of top global consulting firm McKinsey & Company agreed to pay nearly $123 million to settle claims that it bribed government officials in South Africa, the U.S. Department of Justice said Thursday.
    - Federal prosecutors also unsealed a 2022 guilty plea by Vikas Sagar, a former senior partner at McKinsey who worked in the subsidiary's South Africa office.
    - The subsidiary, McKinsey Africa, paid bribes to officials at two state-controlled utility companies in South Africa between 2012 and 2016 in order to secure lucrative consulting contracts, the DOJ said in a press release.
    - Reminds of the Adani situation

    Bad Sandwich?

    - A new lawsuit accuses Subway of "grossly misleading" customers by advertising sandwiches that contain at least three times more meat than it delivers.
    - According to a proposed class action filed on Monday in federal court in Brooklyn, Subway ads for its Steak & Cheese sandwich show layers of meat piled high, reaching about as high as the surrounding hero bread.
    - In reality, according to several photos in the complaint, the fast-food chain's sandwiches are far more bread than filling.
    - Similar lawsuits filed in the same court by the plaintiff's law firm against McDonald's, Wendy's and Taco Bell were dismissed last year.
    - Subway previously defended for more than four years against a lawsuit claiming its "footlong" sandwiches were too short.
    --------------That lawsuit was dismissed in 2017.
    No Sleep
    - A new stock exchange launching next year is on track to offer nearly round-the-clock trading on business days, pending final regulatory approvals
    - The 24X National Exchange will debut in the second half of 2025, with trading from 4:00 a.m. ET to 7:00 p.m. ET on weekdays, the Stamford, Connecticut-based platform said. That can be expanded to 8:00 p.m. ET on Sunday through 7:00 p.m. ET on Friday, with a one-hour pause each day, once the exchange clears some final hurdles with the Securities and Exchange Commission.

     

    - - More Musk

    - Elon Musk lost his bid to have his $56 billion 2018 pay package reinstated
    - A Delaware judge upheld her January ruling in a case brought by shareholders that said the process leading to approval of the pay package was “deeply flawed.”

    End Of Year - What to do with OLD stock picks?

     

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    TRUMP (AI) Limerick

    There once was a man named Trump,

    Who governed with flair and a stump.
    With tweets quite unfiltered,
    And policies tilted,
    He sure made the headlines all jump!

     

    There once was a man named Trump,

    Whose ego was known to be plump.
    With bluster and flare,
    He'd claim he was fair,
    But left many folks in a slump!

    See this week’s stock picks HERE

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    1 hr 2 min
  • DHUnplugged #730: Spend Spend Spend

    Very Business friendly cabinet

    Market rotation continues – now it is back into the big-caps

    Consumers – WOW! – Spend Spend Spend

    Black Friday and Cyber Monday updates

    PLUS we are now on Spotify and Amazon Music/Podcasts!

    Click HERE for Show Notes and Links

    DHUnplugged is now streaming live - with listener chat. Click on link on the right sidebar.

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    DONATIONS ? Thank you for all who gave to the Thanksgiving Holiday Campaign...

    Warm-Up

    - Very Business friendly cabinet
    - Market rotation continues - now it is back into the big-caps
    - Consumers - WOW! - Spend Spend Spend
    - Black Friday and Cyber Monday updates

    Markets

    - November - the best month of the year!
    - New highs and predictions for a 5% December
    - USD is on the rise - bond yields ease.
    - Bitcoin can't seem to breach $100k

    ANNOUNCING the CTP Contestants for 2024 CTP Cup

    Michael Bowling

    Kirk Saathoff
    Eric Harvey
    Chad Laajala
    Tim Dewey
    Paul Kinder
    Anson Brady (2023 CTP Cup Winner)

    Saying goodbye to legend - Art Cashin

    - Pillar of the exchange
    - He was on the TDI Podcast - LINK

    Marshall Law

    - South Korean President Yoon declares martial law:
    - Says through martial law he will rebuild a free and democratic country
    - Government administration has been paralyzed because of opposition party conducts
    - Says he will eradicate pro-North forces and protect constitutional order
    - Marshall Law lifted - but a good amount of confusion remains

    Consumers on a Rampage

    - Adobe said that in the U.S., consumers made a record-breaking $10.8 billion of purchases, up 10.2% on last year.
    - Cyber Monday sales reached $13.5 bln, ahead of initial expectations
    - Quick Amazon vs Costco Story - Looking for UPS backup - Same model on Amazon (Cyber Monday Deal) $179 - Costco $129
    - Buy now, pay later plans helped finance purchases, driving 8.8% more in online spend than last year
    - But... Not so much IN-STORE: Overall, store traffic on Black Friday was down 3.2%, with footfall down 7% in the Midwest, 2.1% in the Northeast, 3.5% in the South and 3.2% in the West

    Retail

    - Consumer discretionary stocks are on fire
    - People are buying - alot of stuff
    - Abercrombie & Fitch issued strong holiday guidance last week after posting its sixth straight quarter of double-digit sales growth and another quarter of results that topped expectations.
    - Gap issued good guidance as well
    - RTH ETF - (Retail) all time high (Amazon, Costco, Home Depot, WalMart etc)

    On the Other hand....

    - Electronics provider Best Buy on Tuesday cut its full-year sales forecast as it missed Wall Street's quarterly revenue expectations and a fresh batch of iPhones and AI-enabled laptops weren't enough to drive higher sales.
    - The consumer electronics retailer said it now expects full-year revenue to range from $41.1 billion to $41.5 billion, compared to prior guidance of $41.3 billion to $41.9 billion.
    - It expects full-year comparable sales to decline by between 2.5% and 3.5%, compared to its prior expectations of a 1.5% to 3% drop.

    Year Top Date Scorecard

    S&P Sector Scorecard

    AI

    - Amazon announced it would invest an additional $4 billion in Anthropic, the artificial intelligence startup founded by ex-OpenAI research executives.
    - The new funding brings the tech giant's total investment to $8 billion, though Amazon will retain its position as a minority investor, according to Anthropic, the San Francisco-based startup behind the Claude chatbot and AI model.
    - Amazon Web Services will also become Anthropic's "primary cloud and training partner,"
    - Amazon does not have a seat on Anthropic's board.

    AI - Immigration

    - A signature campaign promise of President-elect Donald Trump is to initiate mass deportations of undocumented residents of the United States.
    - At a Sept. 12 campaign stop in Tucson, Arizona, Trump promised to "begin the largest mass deportation mission in the history of our country."
    - Incoming (selected) Boarder Czar
    - Talk of using AI for Mass Deportation - Facial Rec and what

    AI AI

    - Elon Musk is asking a federal court to stop OpenAI from converting into a fully for-profit business.
    - Attorneys representing Musk, his AI startup xAI, and former OpenAI board member Shivon Zilis filed for a preliminary injunction against OpenAI on Friday. The injunction would also stop OpenAI from allegedly requiring its investors to refrain from funding competitors, including xAI and others.

    Musk - Poor Elon

    - Tesla chief executive Elon Musk's record-breaking $56bn (£47bn) pay award will not be reinstated, a judge has ruled.
    - The decision in the Delaware court comes after months of legal wrangling and despite it being approved by shareholders and directors in the summer.
    - Judge Kathaleen McCormick upheld her previous decision from January, in which she argued that board members were too heavily influenced by Mr Musk.

    One More AI

    - At AWS re:Invent, Amazon Web Services, Inc. (AWS), an Amazon.com, Inc. company (NASDAQ: AMZN), today announced that Twelve Labs, a startup that uses multimodal artificial intelligence (AI) to bring human-like understanding to video content, is building and scaling its proprietary foundation models on AWS.
    - Twelve Labs will use AWS technologies to accelerate the development of its foundation models that map natural language to what's happening inside a video.
    - This includes actions, objects, and background sounds, allowing developers to create applications that can search through videos, classify scenes, summarize, and split video clips into chapters.

    More Threats

    - This will be a standard for the next few year so get used to it
    - BRICS
    - President-elect Donald Trump on Saturday threatened 100% tariffs against a bloc of nine nations if they act to undermine the U.S. dollar.
    - His threat was directed at countries in the so-called BRIC alliance, which consists of Brazil, Russia, India, China, South Africa, Egypt, Ethiopia, Iran and the United Arab Emirates.
    --- YET he is all on on Bitcoin? How is that not undermining the US Dollar.

    DJIA - Best month in a year

    - WOW! Banks popped, small caps, mid caps and pretty much every asset class
    - Emerging markets lagged as the USD moved higher
    - Rates moved down

     

     

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    1 hr 5 min
  • DHUnplugged #729: We Are All Turkeys

    Where are all the smokers these days?

    DOGE – making promises.

    We are all turkeys – just gullible for every comment and promise.

    PLUS we are now on Spotify and Amazon Music/Podcasts!

    Click HERE for Show Notes and Links

    DHUnplugged is now streaming live - with listener chat. Click on link on the right sidebar.

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    Twitter - How you like the AI generated cover art? (May need to come to DHUnplugged to see all)

    Warm-Up

    - Where are all the smokers these days?
    - DOGE - making promises
    - High level indictment
    - We are all turkeys - just gullible for every comment and promise

    Markets

    -#endthefed making the rounds
    - Treasury Secretary?
    - Target earnings surprise
    - Black Friday - will that boost retail?
    - New Phrase - Mullet Market

    Thanksgiving - What is going to be on the Dvorak table?

    ANNOUNCING the CTP Winner for Carvana

    Mullet Market

    - No, the fish...
    - Steady benchmarks in the front, crypto party in the back

    Netflix Again

    - Netflix notches 70 million monthly active users on ad-supported plan
    - 250 million subs and 70 million on ad plan
    - Didn't we used to call this TV? Made a full circle except that ad-based also has a monthly fee
    - Over 50% of the new sign ups are ads based plans

    Smokers

    - Retail cigarette sales in China have been growing for the past 4 years, reaching 2.44 trillion sticks in 2023, data from Euromonitor showed. The research group forecasts that sales will continue to increase annually, hitting 2.48 trillion by 2028.
    - Euromonitor added that growth has coincided with the increasing popularity of "slim" cigarettes, often advertised as "low-tar," and various types of flavored cigarettes.
    - Between 2019 and 2023, annual worldwide sales of cigarette sticks fell by about 2.7% to 5.18 trillion, according to Euromonitor data.
    At more than 300 million, China has the most cigarette smokers in the world, making up nearly a third of the world's total smokers, according to the World Health Organization.

    Topic of Discussion

    - #endthefed
    - Do you think that Musk and Trump and the new gang will try to end the Fed?
    - Elon endorsed the idea of the President being able to intervene on monetary policy.
    - Seems like that will undermine the independence and then the confidence in the Fed
    -- Going to be some fireworks with Powell saying he will not resign and cannot be fired

    DOGE - Dept of Government Efficiency

    - Still a hardy har name - like saying Penis when in 3rd grade
    - Incoming Department of Government Efficiency wants to create new mobile application for Americans to file taxes for free with IRS, according to Washington Post (Intuit and HR Block down on this...)
    - Explain how a government agency that does not exist is making these kinds of statements.
    --- Thought: Make these statements and either buy or short stocks? (Again we are all turkeys - hopefully not going to be led to slaughter)

    Higher rates

    - Rates are running higher after the election - actually up to the election ran up from 3.6% to 4.6% and nor in the range
    - DoubleLine Capital CEO Jeffrey Gundlach said Thursday interest rates could shoot higher as the Republicans ended up controlling the House, securing a governing trifecta that gives President-elect Donald Trump free rein to spend as he pleases.
    - Pre-election: "If the House goes to Republicans, there's going to be a lot of debt, there's going to be higher interest rates at the long end, and it'll be interesting to see how the Fed reacts to that," Gundlach said
    - If the Trump administration extends the 2017 tax cuts or introduces new reductions, it could add significant amount to the nation's debt in the next few years, worsening the already troublesome fiscal picture.

    Yeah Right....

    - Vocal critic of Putin, Vladimir Shklyarov, 39, died after falling from the fifth floor of an apartment building on Saturday.
    - The fall was said to have been ‘accidental’.
    - Local reports suggest he was trying to escape from his apartment - after his ex-wife locked him in there at his request to stop him from buying drugs.

    OH WOW

    - India's Adani Group saw shares of its companies plunge Thursday after its billionaire chairman Gautam Adani was indicted in a New York federal court over his alleged involvement in an extensive bribery and fraud operation.
    - The 62-year-old billionaire and the seven other defendants have been accused of paying over $250 million in bribes to Indian government officials to secure solar energy contracts that could generate more than $2 billion in profits.
    - That is something.....

    Target

    - Target missed third-quarter earnings and revenue estimates and cut its full-year guidance.
    - Target struggled to drive sales even after reducing prices on thousands of items.
    - The results come a day after Walmart beat Wall Street expectations and hiked its outlook.
    - The big-box retailer reversed course and cut its full-year profit guidance, just three months after hiking that forecast.
    - It said it expects full-year adjusted earnings per share to range from $8.30 to $8.90.
    - That’s lower than the $9 to $9.70 per share range that it shared in August and below the $9.55 a share expected by analysts, according to StreetAccount.
    ---- That means that things are slowing down at a very

    Advanced Auto Parts

    - What happened to this amazing business?
    - Advance Auto Parts is closing more than 700 locations to shore up the company’s finances following another dismal earnings report.
    -The car parts retailer, which has about 5,000 stores, said Thursday that the closures are part of its “strategic plan to improve business performance.”
    - Stock was a darling as high as $240 in January 2022 - now trades near $40

    RFK Jr

    - Maybe he has some residual from the brain work form 2010 that gave him brain fog and had trouble with word retrieval and short-term memory
    - ANYWAY - word on the street is that he could recommend removing fluoride from the water system.
    - On the good side of this - Dental supply company Henry Schein (HSIC) is up on the idea as this could lead to a boom in dental visits.

    Jersey Mikes - Feel good story...

    - Blackstone buys company
    - Valued at 8 Billion
    - CEO bought the sub shop at 17 with the help of his football coach

    Walmart

    - Earnings last week - wow company firing on all cylinders
    - This notion that the consumer is hurting looks like a way just to sandbag earnings (Lowes, Home Depot)
    - Company is upbeat on consumer spending
    - Takes us back to the inflation discussion into the future.

    Black Friday

    - Once again we are here - what do we buy?
    - Black Friday has long been a cornerstone of the global shopping calendar.
    - In 2023, Black Friday sales in the U.S. totaled $9.8 billion.
    - This year, projections indicate sales will reach $10.8 billion, a 9.9% increase from 2023.
    - Where to find the best deals????

    NVDA Earnings

    - After a quarter where Nvidia's sales nearly doubled, investors and analysts are wondering how long the chipmaker can keep this kind of growth going now that it has a $140 billion annual revenue run rate.
    - Basic, company did well, there was a range of the revenue that was an issues and some could have seen it as soft.

    Dell Earnings

    - Company issues downside guidance
    - Company also says that multiple tailwinds are heading into 2025 as AI demand is still there.
    - Growth primarily from AI servers, then traditional severs and storage.
    - Stock down 10%

    Home sales

    - Just before rates moved up in October...
    - Sales of previously owned homes last month rose 3.4% from September to a seasonally adjusted, annualized rate of 3.96 million units, according to the National Association of Realtors.
    - Sales were 2.9% higher than October of last year, marking the first annual increase in more than three years.
    - There were 1.37 million units for sale at the end of October, an increase of 19.1% from October 2023.

    Google

    - Alphabet says DOJ "filed a staggering proposal that seeks dramatic changes to Google services"
    - Stock down 6% last Thursday on this news and the whispers that it is not clear if DJT term will change these anti-trust actions
    - This extreme proposal would: Endanger the security and privacy of millions of Americans, and undermine the quality of products people love, by forcing the sale of Chrome and potentially Android. Require disclosure to unknown foreign and domestic companies of not just Google's innovations and results, but even more troubling, Americans' personal search queries. Chill our investment in artificial intelligence, perhaps the most important innovation of our time, where Google plays a leading role. Hurt innovative services, like Mozilla's Firefox, whose businesses depend on charging Google for Search placement. Deliberately hobble people's ability to access Google Search. Mandate government micromanagement of Google Search and other technologies by appointing a "Technical Committee" with enormous power over your online experience."

    In Closing

    - Crypto investor Justin Sun paid $6.2 million for a banana duct-taped to a wall.
    - Sotheby’s auctioned off the infamous piece of work titled “Comedian,” created by Italian artist and cultural prankster Maurizio Cattelan.
    - Sun will get a roll of duct tape, instructions on how to “install” the banana and a certificate of authenticity guaranteeing it as an original work, but the banana is not included, since it will rot.

    Airlines - Rip Off

    - Because they believe we are turkeys....
    - A Senate subcommittee on Tuesday slammed U.S. airlines large and small over fees to pick seats on flights.
    - Between 2018 and 2023 American, Delta, United, Spirit and Frontier brought in $12.4 billion in seating fees, including for seats with extra legroom as well as those in "preferred" locations that are closer to the front of the plane, or window or aisle seats, said the report from the Senate Permanent Subcommittee on Investigations.

    In time for the holidays

    - Walmart on Monday confirmed that it's ending some of its diversity initiatives, removing some LGBTQ-related merchandise from its website and winding down a nonprofit that funded programs for minorities.
    - Other companies in the news recently are also pulling back from DEI efforts and even eliminating DEI roles and initiatives internally.

     

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    Announcing the Winner
    The Closest to The Pin - Carvana (CVNA)

    Winners will be getting great stuff like the new DHUnplugged Shirts (Designed by Jimbo) -

    PLUS a one-of-a-kind DHUnplugged CTP Winner's certificate..

     

    FED AND CRYPTO LIMERICKS

     

    See this week’s stock picks HERE

    Follow John C. Dvorak on Twitter

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    1 hr 8 min
  • DHUnplugged #728: Wild Ride

    Wild ride for markets – election movers and groovers.

    Fed dousing the fire a bit.

    Inflation is still a thing.

    Nuke talk again….

    PLUS we are now on Spotify and Amazon Music/Podcasts!

    Click HERE for Show Notes and Links

    DHUnplugged is now streaming live - with listener chat. Click on link on the right sidebar.

    Love the Show? Then how about a Donation?

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    DONATIONS ? OHHH - the new shirt design is coming along...

    Warm-Up

    - Up and Down - Election Confusing Markets - What a wild ride - more to come
    - CTP for Carvana will be closing out this coming Friday and that is it for 2024 - CTP Cup comes in December
    - More hacks that no one cares about
    - Another big bankruptcy
    - Nuke talks again

    Markets

    - Up and down - shine off that penny?
    - Every pick / comment brings on new move
    - Fed pours some cold water on markets
    - Inflation - still a thing
    - Something happening - only happened a few times in history

    ANNOUNCEMENT : AH - Chili Competition Results - 3rd Place

    Netflix - Jake Paul (27) and Mike Tyson (58)

    - 60 million people "tried" to watch
    - Glitches - system overload
    - Jake Paul took it in a 8 round decision.
    - Can you imagine if Netflix starts doing these live events with a $1 charge?
    - Jake Paul got $40M and Tyson got $20M

    Follow Up

    - Palantir - Jumps after earnings and then announcing move to NASDAQ (Nov 26)
    - As of last Friday - #1 performer in S&P 500 this year
    - Up 48% MTD and 250% YTD
    - Big move Friday was because it will qualify for NAZ 100 (QQQ) and lots of buying will need to be done
    - Good for Peter: Thiel's Palantir holdings have increased in value by about $3.2 billion since the earnings report and $2 billion since the election.

    Once Hot -Now Not

    - Here is company that we had for clients -bought low, sold higher, bought some more higher, sold on way down
    - Super Micro - SMCI - was a darling for some time - then a few short sellers attacked - stock sold off
    - Company decided to follow the other guys with 10-1 stock spilts - stock was as high as $1,200 per share pre split- now??? $21.75 ($217.50 comparable)
    - Could be kicked out of NASDAQ
    - Short -Sellers couldbe right - Super Micro is late in filing its 2024 year-end report with the SEC, and has yet to replace its accounting firm.
    --- UPDATE - Super Micro Computer secures BDO USA as lead auditor, targets key filings by early 2025 amid NASDAQ approval process (Stock up 25%)

    Markets - Not Often Seen

    - The stock market has done this only three times since January 1871
    - The Shiller P/E ratio has reached a reading of 38 only three times during a bull market rally in 153 years. In December 1999, during the dot-com boom, the Shiller P/E peaked at a reading of 44.19. Meanwhile, in the first week of 2022, it very briefly lifted above 40.
    - On most occasions, this heat needs to be cooled... It could take time as this is a slow moving ratio/indicator
    - Another point - only a few times in history have we seen a market up 20% - 2 consecutive years.
    --- Will it continue? History shows that this needs to cool off too - but that does not mean a crash is imminent.

    More Cooling

    - Russell 2000 was HOT right after the election.
    - Day after it was up like 5%+++
    - Last week, down 4%

    Hack'd

    - Hackers linked to a Chinese intelligence agency were able to breach T-Mobile as part of a months-long campaign to spy on the cellphone communications of high-value intelligence targets
    - Last Wednesday, The Federal Bureau of Investigation (FBI) and the U.S. cyber watchdog agency CISA said China-linked hackers have intercepted surveillance data intended for American law enforcement agencies after breaking into an unspecified number of telecom companies.
    - Earlier in October, the Journal reported that Chinese hackers accessed the networks of U.S. broadband providers, including Verizon Communications, AT&T and Lumen Technologies, and obtained information from systems the federal government uses for court-authorized wiretapping.- Does anyone care? OR are we just okay with anyone having all of our information?

    What is with the Nuke Talk?

    - President Biden has given Ukraine the green light to use powerful American long-range weapons for strikes inside Russia, a U.S. official told NPR on Sunday.
    - The missiles, known as the Army Tactical Missile System, or ATACMS, can travel about 190 miles. Their use would enable Ukrainian troops to strike Russia's weapons stockpiles, logistical centers and airfields — which could help stop Russian forces from advancing on the battlefield and attacking Ukrainian cities.
    - This war going to end?
    - All of a sudden US "allows" long range missiles to be used in Ukraine
    - Vladimir Putin has approved changes to Russia’s nuclear doctrine, setting out new conditions under which the country would consider using its arsenal.
    - The doctrine now says an attack from a non-nuclear state, if backed by a nuclear power, will be treated as a joint assault on Russia.

    Tech Heat

    - Nvidia - The Information reported that NVDA's flagship AI GPU platform, Blackwell, is experiencing overheating issues when installed in high-capacity server racks, housings found in data centers that support many servers, routers, storage units, etc.
    - Jim Cramer came out with a defense in that the report was done at a tie that NVDA can't respond because it is in a quiet period ahead of 11/20/2024 earnings. (meanwhile Jensen Huang is out on the road giving speeches - so not sure this defense holds water)
    - Cramer also said Michael Dell is out with comments that they are still installing and that they know it is a hot operating environment that needs to be water cooled and cold conditions
    - Inother words, Cramer is bullish - SURPRISE!

    Tesla

    - Election beneficiary
    - Elon seems to know how to properly manipulate a situation
    - Been grabbing heaps of $ from government since the beginning - why stop now?
    - What does Elon want? FSD:
    --- Tesla shares jumped on Monday following a report that President-elect Donald Trump’s transition team is planning to make a federal framework to regulate self-driving vehicles a top priority for the U.S. Transport Department.
    - AT LEAST THAT IS THE NEWS  - TRUMP TRANSITION TEAM DID NOT VERIFY

    DOGE

    - Department of Government Efficiency
    - HARDY HAR HAR - big 5th grade belly laugh
    - Musk and Vivek being put on (supposedly) to the DOGE committee (that does not exist as of yet) to cut government expenses
    - Monday: Trump advisers and GOP lawmakers eye cuts to Medicaid, food stamps to fund tax cuts extension
    --- Seriously??

    DOGE Coin

    - Jumps bigly after election - up 100% since election

    Bitcoin

    - Up Up Up
    - Bitcoin clears $93,000 for a bit, drops and then rocks back up
    - Thoughts that it will be less regulation and who knows.

    Election Wreck

    - Shares of vaccine makers fell on Thursday on reports that President-elect Donald Trump is expected to nominate Robert F. Kennedy Jr., a prominent vaccine skeptic, to lead the Department of Health and Human Services.
    - The stocks fell in the final hour of trading as reports emerged about Trump's expected pick. Moderna's stock closed more than 5% lower on Thursday, shares of Novavax fell more than 7% and Pfizer's stock ended more than 2% lower.
    - This is going to be interesting to watch - plenty of winners and losers going to happen

    Fed - Cold Water

    - Last Thursday - Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell said that strong U.S. economic growth will allow policymakers to take their time in deciding how far and how fast to lower interest rates.
    -"The economy is not sending any signals that we need to be in a hurry to lower rates," Powell said in remarks for a speech to business leaders in Dallas. "The strength we are currently seeing in the economy gives us the ability to approach our decisions carefully."
    - The Fed is in a predicament - with tariffs and potential tax breaks, deregulation.
    - All is good for growth - but the concern is that it will also spark inflation
    - "The economy is not sending any signals that we need to be in a hurry to lower rates," Powell said in remarks for a speech to business leaders in Dallas. "The strength we are currently seeing in the economy gives us the ability to approach our decisions carefully."
    - Markets are pricing in 0.25% cut in December - but it looks like the potential for a pause from there. (Wait and see)

    AMD

    - Does this sound like a company that is making big strides in AI?
    - Last week, AMD said that it will lay off 4% of its global staff, as the longtime CPU maker seeks to gain a stronger foothold in the growing artificial intelligence chip space dominated by Nvidia.
    - "As a part of aligning our resources with our largest growth opportunities, we are taking a number of targeted steps that will unfortunately result in reducing our global workforce by approximately 4%," an AMD representative said in a statement. "We are committed to treating impacted employees with respect and helping them through this transition."
    - 1000 employees

    Spirit Airlines

    - After years of financial losses and a failed merger attempt, Spirit Airlines filed for Chapter 11 bankruptcy protection on Monday.
    - The low-cost carrier announced it has reached a deal with its bondholders to restructure its debts — and expects to continue flying as normal during the bankruptcy process. The airline says it will continue to honor all tickets, credits and loyalty points.
    - "The most important thing to know is that you can continue to book and fly now and in the future," the Florida-based carrier said in an open letter to its customers.
    - They need to say that as most people will be worried - but the fact is that this is standard procedure
    - Bondholders will get big haircut and the common stock should be wiped out....
    - AH is flying Spirit on Friday.....

    Lowes Earnings

    - same pitch, modest beat and concern about the outlook
    - Consumers are being more selective and looking at pricing
    - Stock was up pre-market, but fell on reality

    Disney

    - Disney reported a nice quarter last week
    - Revenue for the entertainment segment – which includes the traditional TV networks, direct-to-consumer streaming and films – increased 14% year over year.
    - During Disney’s fiscal 2025, the company expects high-single-digit adjusted earnings growth compared with the prior fiscal year.
    - Good performance this year as they are trying to clean up the massive problems they have had - bloated---However, there are still many that believe that DID has big problems long-term. (Stock up 25% YTD and 18% MTD)
    - Earnings per share: $1.14 adjusted vs. $1.10 expected    Revenue: $22.57 billion vs. $22.45 billion expected

    Bird Flu

    - The Centers for Disease Control and Prevention on Friday confirmed that a person contracted bird flu in a case linked to an outbreak that sickened thousands of birds in a Clackamas County commercial poultry operation.
    - Public health officials declined to provide details about the person, name the operation or other details. They also said there is no evidence of bird flu spreading from person to person and the risk to the public is low.

    Poor Rudy

    - Rudy Giuliani has relinquished dozens of watches and a Mercedes once owned by movie star Lauren Bacall to two former Georgia election workers who won a $148 million defamation judgment, his lawyer said.
    -Joseph Cammarata said in a letter filed late Friday in Manhattan federal court that the trove of watches and a ring were delivered by FedEx to a bank in Atlanta, Georgia, in the morning.
    -The 1980 Mercedes-Benz SL 500 was turned over at an address in Hialeah, Florida, and an undisclosed amount of funds from Giuliani’s Citibank accounts were also surrendered to the two women who won the judgment, according to the letter.
    - Will he get pardoned?

     

     

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    ANNOUNCING
    The Closest to The Pin - Carvana (CVNA)

    Winners will be getting great stuff like the new DHUnplugged Shirts (Designed by Jimbo) -

    PLUS a one-of-a-kind DHUnplugged CTP Winner's certificate..

     

    FED AND CRYPTO LIMERICKS

     

    See this week’s stock picks HERE

    Follow John C. Dvorak on Twitter

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    1 hr 3 min
  • DHUnplugged #727: Throw Backs

    Looking back at some of the funnier and more memorable episodes.

    Focusing n a few specific topics from years ago.

    Thank you Ryan for putting this together.

    PLUS we are now on Spotify and Amazon Music/Podcasts!

    Click HERE for Show Notes and Links

    DHUnplugged is now streaming live - with listener chat. Click on link on the right sidebar.

    Love the Show? Then how about a Donation?

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    Thanks again to the great Ryan Rediske for putting this episode together!

    This is a DH Unplugged chronicle of the rise and fall of the Facebook initial public offering; a cautionary tale of hubris and hype that ended with chaos, panic and scandal.

    Episode 139, February 7th, 2012, the Facebook IPO is announced with great expectations. John C Dvorak, our tech hero, makes two courageous and bold predictions. Andrew Horowitz, our financial wizard, combines his unmatched insight with his extensive analysis skills to summarize the fundamentals.

    April 11th, Facebook buys Instagram. John mentions a lost opportunity and Andrew questions the logic.

    May 3rd, The Instagram purchase is analyzed further. Begun, the patent wars have.

    May 10th, Facebook alters their S1. Pray they do not alter the deal further. John announces special Facebook Friday. Andrew foreshadows with concerns.

    May 16th, The price rises, the revenue falls. John is cheap faked for humorous effect. Andrew offers sage IPO purchase advice.

    May 23rd, John admires a Facebook hit piece. Andrew sheds light on some potentially shady underwriting.

    May 23rd, Andrew shorts Facebook. John lavishes him with praise.

    May 30th, John predicts law suits. Andrew senses foul play and greed.

    August 1st, Facebook stock plays limbo; how low can they go? Guess who they blame?

    September 5th, A major firm downgrades Facebook and Andrew predicts a short squeeze.

    October 10th, Facebook makes the cover of Barons.

     

    We join our heroes in the spring of 2011, discussing the potential for round three of the federal reserve's quantitative easing program to buy bonds and lower interest rates in an attempt to stimulate the economy.

    Episode 105, April 14th, Morgan Stanley estimates US GDP. John uses the words "bull crap".

    April 21st, The fed considers doubling down with a mediocre hand. Our dynamic duo sees this for what it really is.

    May 25th, Andrew displays an exercise in mental acuity. John lands an impressive judo chop.

    June 22nd, Bernanke to host an unprecedented "ask me anything" for his fans. Will it work?

    August 3rd, John shares his take. Andrew asks an important question about QE3.

    August 10th, Andrew analyzes an unexpected outcome. John says "interesting".

    September 21st, Our beloved hosts argue about the origin of twist and shout. John refrains from using the word scam.

    Episode 142, February 29th, 2012, Andrew finds a curious correlation. John offers a heartfelt apology. To himself.

    June 13th, Quantitative easing efficacy is questioned.

    September 5th, Andrew reaffirms Q E 3 still makes no sense.

    September 19th, John gets an idea. Andrew speculates that the federal reserve indulges in recreational drug use.

    December 12th, John tells a joke. Andrew says unlimited beer is stupid.

     

     

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    1 hr 3 min
  • DHUnplugged #726: Election Hysteria

    Can we get this election over with already?

    Markets pricing in a perfect gridlock scenario.

    Earnings season rolling along – good and bad news for stocks.

    PLUS we are now on Spotify and Amazon Music/Podcasts!

    Click HERE for Show Notes and Links

    DHUnplugged is now streaming live - with listener chat. Click on link on the right sidebar.

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    Warm-Up

    - Yields - Highest in months - ahead of Fed decision (tomorrow)
    - Drones - will they deliver?
    - October ends on a down note

    Markets

    - Optimism (Hysteria) ahead of (final) Election results
    - Oil on the move again - Middle East tensions
    - Mixed results from earnings - but still a generally good look for the main players
    - What does Berkshire know?
    - Big DJIA Announcement

    AH - Chili Competition this weekend - reining champion - have to defend the title...

    Employment Situation

    - ADP said private companies hired 233,000 new workers in the month, better than the upwardly revised 159,000 in September and far ahead of the Dow Jones estimate for 113,000.
    - Nonfarm payrolls were up just 12,000 in October (Briefing.com consensus 120,000)
    - Nonfarm private payrolls decreased by 28,000 (Briefing.com consensus 105,000)
    -- These numbers were depressed by the Boeing strike and likely by the effects of Hurricanes Helene and Milton, yet with forecasts suggesting those influences could lop off something on the order of 100,000 positions, the view to October, coupled with sizable downward revisions to the August and September payroll figures, connotes softness in hiring activity.
    - Unemployment rate stood at 4.1% - no change

    US GDP

    - Gross domestic product increased at a 2.8% annualized rate in the third quarter, below the 3.1% estimate and the 3.0% reading Q2.
    - Consumer spending and federal government outlays were two of the biggest contributors to GDP growth.
    - The release comes with the Federal Reserve poised to lower interest rates further despite the seemingly strong economy and inflation that remains above target.

    Palantir Earnings

    -Back-to-back quarters delivered beats on its top and bottom lines in Q3 and forecasted upbeat Q4 revenue figures.
    - PLTR's top line continued to accelerate, advancing by 30% yr/yr to $725.52 mln, supporting its improving profitability, with non-GAAP EPS expanding by 43% yr/yr to $0.10. Total customer count continued to grow nicely, up 39% yr/yr and 6% sequentially to 629.
    - U.S. government revenue has been ramping up in recent quarters. However, in Q3, the segment took a giant step forward, growing revs by 40% yr/yr and 15% sequentially to $320 mln, a seven-fold increase compared to the prior year and the best growth rate over the past 15 quarters.
    - The commercial side was the showcase in Q3. Like U.S. government, U.S. commercial revs shifted into a higher gear, registering 54% growth yr/yr, up from the +33% delivered last quarter, to $179 mln

    AMD Earnings

    - Just not good enough
    - AMD reported third-quarter results on Tuesday, with earnings in line with forecasts and revenue that slightly beat expectations.
    - Here's how the company did, compared to LSEG estimates for the quarter ending Sept. 28:
    - Earnings per share: 92 cents adjusted vs. 92 cents expected
    - Revenue: $6.82 billion vs. $6.71 billion expected
    - AMD said its important data center business doubled in sales for the second quarter in a row, but overall revenue guidance for the fourth quarter was in line with consensus expectations.
    - Stock down

    Microsoft Earnings

    - Microsoft’s revenue grew 16% in its fiscal first quarter, faster than analysts had anticipated.
    - Revenue from Azure and other cloud services was up 33%, surpassing estimates.
    - Guidance for revenue growth fell short of expectations.

    Amazon Earnings

    - Could have been the best of the bunch
    - Revenue increased 11% in the quarter to $158.9 billion, topping the $157.2 billion estimate of analysts surveyed by LSEG. Earnings of $1.43 topped the average analyst estimate of $1.14.
    - Sales in the Amazon Web Services cloud business increased 19% to $27.4 billion, coming in just shy of analysts’ estimates, according to StreetAccount. That was an acceleration from 12% a year ago, but trailed the rate of growth at rivals Microsoft and Googl
    - Amazon Ad growth  grew faster than Googles (18.7%)
    - Amazon forecast revenue in the current quarter to be between $181.5 billion and $188.5 billion, which would represent growth of 7% to 11% year over year.

    Ford Earnings

    - Ford guided to the low end of its previously announced 2024 earnings forecast as it slightly topped Wall Street’s third-quarter expectations.
    - The automaker now expects adjusted earnings before interest and taxes, or EBIT, of about $10 billion, down from a range of between $10 billion and $12 billion.
    - Ford’s third-quarter results were led by its “Pro” commercial and fleet business as well as its traditional operations, known as “Ford Blue.”
    - Stock Drops

    DJIA Announcement

    - INTEL OUT
    - NVDIA IN 6X more point movement
    - Divisor will change a bit, but still a very big influence in comparison

    Bankruptcy

    - TGI Fridays -CLOSED
    - TGI Fridays franchisees are worried that they could be on the hook for $49.7 million in outstanding customer gift card obligations if the company's bankruptcy doesn't go smoothly, an attorney for franchisees said Monday.
    -- Can we talk about the biggest scam going...

    More Food News

    - Chipotle misses revenue estimates as same-store sales growth disappoints
    - Here's what the company reported compared with what Wall Street was expecting, based on a survey of analysts by LSEG:
    --- Earnings per share: 27 cents adjusted vs. 25 cents expected
    ---- Revenue: $2.79 billion vs. $2.82 billion expected
    - The company's food and beverage costs increased during the quarter, in part due to Chipotle's decision to re-emphasize generous portions after social media-fueled backlash over the size of its burrito bowls this summer.

    Drones

    - Tech Amazon gets FAA approval for new delivery drone as it begins tests in Arizona Published Tue, Nov 5 202412:11 PM EST
    - Amazon says it has received approval from the Federal Aviation Administration to fly its newer, smaller delivery drones, including beyond the visual line of sight of pilots.
    - The company is planning to ramp up deliveries in a city west of Phoenix, Arizona.
    - The Prime Air drone program has been slowly moving forward more than 10 years after Amazon founder Jeff Bezos first conceived of the idea.

    Boeing Saga

    - Seems that the union is onboard to sign a contract
    - 38% pay increase (over several years)
    - Boeing will now be able to resume production, key to its recovery since the bulk of the aircraft price is paid when they are handed over to customers. But getting up to target production rates, particularly for the 737 Max, Boeing’s cash cow, will take time.
    - But, is the company out of the woods (Stock down 40% YTD)

    Meanwhile

    - Warren Buffet is selling stocks
    - Cash on the rise - selling Apple and BOA
    - No Buybacks of Berkshire Hathaway Either
    - The Omaha, Nebraska-based conglomerate saw its cash fortress swell to a record $325.2 billion by the end of September, up from $276.9 billion in the second quarter, according to its earnings report released over the weekend.

    New 401k Limits announced

    - In its release Friday, the agency increased the employee deferral limit to $23,500, up from $23,000 in 2024. The change applies to workplace plans, including 401(k)s, 403(b)s and most 457 plans, along with the federal Thrift Savings Plan.
    - Across plans, the average 401(k) deferral rate was an estimated 7.4% in 2023, according to the same report. The combined savings rate, including employer contributions, was 11.7%, Vanguard found.

     

     

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    ANNOUNCING
    The Closest to The Pin - Carvana (CVNA)

    Winners will be getting great stuff like the new DHUnplugged Shirts (Designed by Jimbo) -

    PLUS a one-of-a-kind DHUnplugged CTP Winner's certificate..

     

    FED AND CRYPTO LIMERICKS

     

    See this week’s stock picks HERE

    Follow John C. Dvorak on Twitter

    Follow Andrew Horowitz on Twitter

    56 min

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Dvorak and Horowitz Unplugged Podcast