DH Unplugged

By Andrew Horowitz and JC DvorakBusiness News Investing Business News Careers

DH Unplugged episodes

May 21, 2025 DHUnplugged #753: Big and Beautiful
The dreaded downgrade.
Biden’s health in the spotlight.
The big and beautiful Tax bill making its way through the sausage factory
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Warm-Up
- The dreaded downgrade
- Biden's health in the spotlight
- Tax bill making its way through the sausage factory
- China continues to stimulate
Markets
- Yields - moving up after worrying signs for US debt levels
- Stocks posting big gains for May
- Bitcoin surges past $100k
- Our debt load is untenable - great chart to consider
The Big Beautiful Bill
- The bill eliminates taxes on tips and overtime.
- The bill achieves "no tax on social security" by increasing deductions for seniors on the program.
- The bill eliminates several green energy spending programs and ends the EV tax credit early.
- The bill makes auto loan interest tax deductible.
- The bill raises the debt ceiling by $4 trillion.
- The bill raises the State and Local Tax Deduction to $30,000 for people making $400K or less.
- The bill makes changes to the IRS free tax filing program, pending review by a task force.
- The bill includes tax on college endowments and private foundations.
- The bill includes reforms for how pharmacy benefit managers do business with the government.
- The bill creates a new savings account for children, and $1000 of funding will be provided.
- The bill raises the child tax credit to $2500 from $2000.
USD DEBT
Moody's
- U.S. Treasury yields spiked on Monday after Moody's downgraded the U.S.' credit rating, citing fiscal concerns.
- That brings it down one notch from Aaa — the highest score — to Aa1
- The first time since the initial rating back in 1919 that Moody's made a change
- Interesting timing - in the middle of a big spending package process -
--- maybe they are sending a message
-"This is a major symbolic move as Moody's were the last of the major rating agencies to have the US at the top rating," Deutsche Bank analysts said in a note.
Market reaction
- Futures fell in late trade after the close of the markets- when it was announced
- Bonds - long end moved.
--- 30 yr treasuries up over 5%
---- 30 yer mortgage rates over 7%
- Markets - yawned and turned on the open after a 1.5% love lower on the futures
Bessent reaction
-Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent said in an interview on NBC News' "Meet the Press" that Moody's Ratings were a "lagging indicator" after the group downgraded the U.S.' credit rating by a notch from the highest level.
-"I think that Moody's is a lagging indicator," Bessent said Sunday. "I think that's what everyone thinks of credit agencies."
- He asserted that the downgrade was related to the Biden administration's spending policies
- Is that right?
China - Stimulating
- China cut its key lending rates by 10 basis points on Tuesday, as Beijing ramps up efforts to boost its economy at a time when trade tensions threaten to derail growth.
- The People's Bank of China trimmed the 1-year loan prime rate to 3.0% from 3.1%, and the 5-year LPR to 3.5% from 3.6%.
US Steel still in play
- Nippon Steel plans to invest $14 billion in U.S. Steel's operations including up to $4 billion in a new steel mill if the Trump administration green lights its bid for the iconic U.S. company, according to a document and three people familiar with the matter.
- Under details of the plan included in the document, the company will plow $11 billion into U.S. Steel's infrastructure through 2028. That includes $1 billion in a green field site, which is expected to grow by $3 billion over the following years and has not been previously reported.
- There is a deadline of May 21st for a national security review - then Trump administration has 15 days to make a decision on the deal
- Odds of this happening?
Eat it!
- Walmart (and other retailers) have been discussing the potential need to increase pricing due to the tariffs
- Over the weekend, President Trump said that they should EAT IT
- It seems that the companies have made billions in profits over the years and should just absorb the increase (that was suppose to be paid by the other country - but who is counting anyway)
-"Walmart should STOP trying to blame Tariffs as the reason for raising prices throughout the chain. Walmart made BILLIONS OF DOLLARS last year, far more than expected," Trump said in a social media post.
- "Between Walmart and China they should, as is said, 'EAT THE TARIFFS,' and not charge valued customers ANYTHING."
Home Depot Earnings
- Missed on EPS, beat on Revenue
- Quick to say that they will not be increasing prices due to tariffs, but reaffirm guidance
- Wordplay here - they will surely increase prices, but will not pin it on the tariffs to stay in the good graces
--- How else are they going to commit to guidance for the year?
Buy Dental Stocks?
- Florida became the second state to ban fluoride in its water supply on Thursday, as use of the mineral used to strengthen teeth increasingly comes under attack from Republicans.
- Florida Governor Ron DeSantis signed the bill banning fluoride, saying at a signing event that "forcing it into the water supply is basically forced medication on people."
- RF Kennedy JR. and others opposed to the use of fluoride in water say it is associated with numerous health issues, including certain cancers and lower cognitive ability among children.
Shoes!
- Dick's Sporting Goods has agreed to buy smaller rival Foot Locker for $2.4 billion, the companies said on Thursday.
- Shares of Foot Locker surged 75% to $22.50 premarket after the announcement, while Dick's Sporting fell 9%.
- The sporting goods retailer has offered $24 per share of Foot Locker, representing an 86% premium to the stock's last close. Foot Locker has lost about 40% of its value so far this year.
Hmmmmmm
- U.S. energy officials are reassessing the risk posed by Chinese-made devices that play a critical role in renewable energy infrastructure after unexplained communication equipment was found inside some of them, two people familiar with the matter said.
- Power inverters, which are predominantly produced in China, are used throughout the world to connect solar panels and wind turbines to electricity grids. They are also found in batteries, heat pumps and electric vehicle chargers.
- Over the past nine months, undocumented communication devices, including cellular radios, have also been found in some batteries from multiple Chinese suppliers, one of them said.
THIN IS IN
- Samsung on Tuesday unveiled a thin version of its flagship smartphone in an unusually timed launch as it looks to maintain momentum in its mobile division against an uncertain consumer backdrop and U.S. tariff policy.
- The Samsung Galaxy S25 Edge is just 5.8 millimeters thin and weighs 163 grams, making it one of the thinnest smartphones on the market.
- Samsung said the device starts at $1,099 and goes on sale on May 30.
Coinbase - Joining the big league
- Coinbase is joining the S&P 500, replacing Discover Financial Services in the benchmark index, according to a release last week.
- Shares of the crypto exchange jumped 8% in extended trading.
- The change will take effect before trading on May 19.
- Discover is in the process of being acquired by Capital One Financial - completed 5/19
Quantum
- D-Wave Quantum (QBTS) on Tuesday said its most advanced quantum computer has reached "general availability" for customers such as governments and research institutions. D-Wave is the top performer among quantum computing stocks in 2025.
- Further, D-Wave said the Advantage2 quantum computer is available in more than 40 countries for applications such as artificial intelligence and materials science. On the stock market today, D-Wave stock gained more than 20% to 15.89 in early trading.
Also, D-Wave stock has advanced 56% in 2025 thus far

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1 hr 2 min
May 14, 2025 DHUnplugged #752: USA Hearts China
– More Deals – So many deals! We are so Amazing with the Deals!
– Investors turn hot on stocks – like nothing happened!
– Apple making moves – so smart
PLUS we are now on Spotify and Amazon Music/Podcasts!
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Warm-Up
- More Deals - We are so Amazing with the Deals!
- Investors turn hot on stocks - like nothing happened!
- Apple making moves - so smart
- Microsoft layoffs - Important information on this if you are one of these
Markets
- HUGE move as tariffs paused for 90 days on China
- Right on cue - most negative sentiment in decades then the squeeze
- China - we have something - Maybe Phase 1.5?
- Drug companies under pressure
- Google update - Lots of headwinds
Announcing the Winner of the Micron (MU) CTP
Reconciliation BILL - Draft
- House Republicans release text of large reconciliation bill which includes extension of 2017 tax cuts for all income levels, spending cuts (Medicaid and green energy spending), energy reform, immigration reform, and a debt ceiling increase of $4 trillion
- The bill eliminates taxes on tips and overtime.
- It achieves "no tax on social security" by increasing deductions for seniors on the program.
- The bill eliminates several green energy spending programs and ends the EV tax credit early.
- The bill makes auto loan interest tax deductible.
- The bill raises the debt ceiling by $4 trillion.
- The bill raises the State and Local Tax Deduction to $30,000 for people making $400K or less.
- The bill makes changes to the IRS free tax filing program, pending review by a task force.
- Bill includes tax on college endowments and private foundations.
AI Diffusion Rule Repeal
- Wasn't the idea to stop chips from being sold to bad actors?
- Good news for NVDA, Intel, AMD etc...
- Is this good news?
Reality Bites
- A quick weekend meeting and all good
- 90 day pause
- The tariff rate on imported goods to the U.S. from China has been slashed from 145% to 30%, and the tariff rate on imported goods from the U.S. to China has been cut from 125% to 10%
- The Art of the ????
---- So confusing that it is hard to imagine that anyone really knows what is going on at this point.
What Do We Do With this:
- Commerce Secretary Howard Lutnick said Sunday that the 10% baseline tariff rate on imports from other countries is likely to "be in place for the foreseeable future," echoing President Donald Trump's comments from days prior.
- They also said no change in tariffs not matter what China does, then maybe a reduction 80% maybe
- FAKE PROMISES, Fake News????
China Shipments
- China's exports surged in April even as shipments to the U.S. plunged as businesses bore the brunt of prohibitive U.S. tariffs that kicked in last month.
- Exports jumped 8.1% last month in U.S. dollar terms from a year earlier
- Imports slumped by 0.2% in April from a year earlier (much less that expected)
- China's outbound shipments to the U.S. plunged over 21% in April year on year, while imports dropped nearly 14%, official data showed.
How Much?
- In April 2025, the U.S. government collected approximately $16 billion in net customs duties. This was a significant increase from the previous year, driven by higher tariffs on Chinese goods and other imports
- The budget results indicate that the U.S. collected just over $500 million a day from tariffs in April
Income Received
Inflation Update
- Somehow, not moving (yet)
- Total CPI was up 0.2% month-over-month (Briefing.com consensus 0.3%) following a 0.1% decline in March. On a year-over-year basis, total CPI was up 2.3%, versus 2.4% in March. That is the smallest 12-month increase since February 2021.
- Core CPI, which excludes food and energy, was also up 0.2% month-over-month (Briefing.com consensus 0.3%) following a 0.1% increase in March. Core CPI was up 2.8% year-over-year, unchanged from March
Income Received
Microsoft
- Cutting 3% of workforce
~6,000 employees getting the axe (BTW If you are one of these, contact me before you do anything - need to understand several key items for your finances and retirement plans)
- “We continue to implement organizational changes necessary to best position the company for success in a dynamic marketplace,” a Microsoft spokesperson said in a statement to CNBC.
- either go to TDI site or email me info@
Finally!
- A new U.S. rule that requires hotel and short-term lodging companies to disclose so-called "junk fees" starts this week.
- Announced by the Federal Trade Commission in December, the rule takes direct aim at the widely loathed charges, which can appear as "resort," "destination" or "hospitality service" fees and purport to grant perks that travelers either don't want or already expect to receive.
- The rule, which also applies to live event ticketing companies, was designed to curtail a practice that allowed businesses to charge more "without looking like you're raising prices,"
- Meanwhile - nothing really seems to be changing.... Look at LYV stock...looks like all is just fine...
Drug Pricing Equalization
- President Donald Trump on Monday revived a controversial policy that aims to slash drug costs by tying the prices of some medicine in the U.S. to the significantly lower ones abroad.
- Trump signed an executive order including several different actions to renew that effort, known as the “most favored nation” policy.
- But, part of the drug cost differential is sue to country subsidies - so how would that work?
-- Other savings:
- “We’re going to cut out the middlemen and facilitate the direct sale of drugs at the most favorite nation price, directly to the American citizen,”
--- OH- will probably need Congressional approval for some of this..
- Within 30 days, the secretary (JFK Jr) will also have to set clear targets for price reductions across all markets in the U.S., according to the officials. That will open up a round of negotiations between HHS and the pharmaceutical industry, officials said, not providing exact details on the nature of those talks.
- If “adequate progress” is not made toward those price targets, HHS Secretary Robert F. Kennedy Jr. will impose the most favored nation pricing on drugs through rulemaking.
Apple Price Hike
- So smart!
- Apple is "mulling" the idea of increasing prices on some iPhones
- How smart is that?????
--- Get people nervous and off the fence and go and buy before prices go up!
-- Love it!
More Apple
- Apple's plan to offer AI search options on Safari a blow to Google dominance
- Google gets hit by 7% on this news
- The iPhone maker was "actively looking at" reshaping Safari
-- LOOKING AT
- "People are seeing that Google Search is more useful for more of their queries — and they’re accessing it for new things and in new ways," the company wrote. (Really?)
- Google is the default search engine on Apple's browser, a coveted position for which it pays the iPhone maker roughly $20 billion a year, or about 36% of its search advertising revenue generated through the Safari browser, analysts have estimated.
- Apple to lose this revenue? Or shape for their own benefit?
Plenty of $$$ Still Around
- Perplexity AI is in late-stage talks to raise $500 million at a $14 billion valuation
- The funding is on the lower end of Perplexity’s planned raise - was expecting a $18B valuation
- Perplexity has just under $100 million in annual recurring revenue
Airports
- What is going on at Newark?
- Transportation Secretary Sean Duffy laid out the plans the Trump administration has for fixing the nation's air traffic control system, while blaming the previous administration for its failures
- Radar systems failing????
Qatar is Gifting us Air Force 1?
- $400 Million Gift
- Will go to Presidential Library foundation after term
- Is this a good idea? (Boeing can't seem to get AF1 done from last order)
- Trump struck a deal during his first term to modernize two Boeing 747s to be used as the new Air Force One aircraft. But the fixed-price contract with Boeing has gone more than $2 billion over budget amid repeated delays. The planes may not be completed until at least 2027.
Barron's Magazine Cover
- Money Managers Are the Most Bearish They’ve Been in 28 Years, Our Poll Finds
- Date: May 5th 2025 (Nice contrarian indicator)
- Nearly 60% say the stock market is overvalued, according to Barron’s latest Big Money poll of professional investors.
Weight Loss Drug Update
- We know that "old fashioned" weight loss programs are not bringing in the customers.
- Weight Watchers declared bankruptcy
- What happened to Jenny Craig? (Still there - just looked it up)
- Eli Lilly said on Sunday its drug Zepbound was superior to Novo Nordisk's Wegovy across five weight-loss targets such as reducing waist circumference, citing data from a head-to-head trial.
- The data is the first head-to-head trial comparing the wildly popular medicines, and gives Lilly more firepower as it seeks to gain wider insurance coverage in an obesity drug market estimated to reach more than $150 billion annually by the next decade.
New AI Usages
- Recipes - Looking to come up with a new winning chili recipe. The one I am working on in a Maple Bourbon Chili (bison and short ribs)
- Virtual Companions - AI chatbots and virtual companions like Replika can provide companionship, engage in conversations, and even help with mental well-being.
- Note Taking, meeting summaries
- Car Buying - heard a gent turned on ChatGPT audio during discussion with salesman- asked for replies and how to bring down price and then fed back to salesman (seemed to have worked)
- Crafting Pick up lines - AI can generate pick-up lines, providing users with creative and sometimes humorous ways to start conversations
- Complex math - we used to test a few things and it worked pretty well (financial assumptions)
- Analyzing balance sheets and other financial reports - I have uploaded and some really interesting information pops out
--- This week we had a great TDI Podcast - All about AI and some really interesting items came up - Guest Dan Fagella - Ejmerj Artificial Intelligence

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1 hr 2 min
May 07, 2025 DHUnplugged #751: Heads I Win
Good ECO/Markets = Trump
Bad ECO/Markets – Biden
CTP for Micron is underway
AI wins a horse race
News from Omaha
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Warm-Up
- Good ECO/Markets = Trump
- Bad ECO/Markets - Biden
- CTP for Micron is underway
- AI wins a horse race
- News from Omaha
- India/Pakistan - India stikes
Markets
- Some Earnings Color
- S&P breaks it streak this week
- KRI +4, +5 (Spearman +100)
- Currency interventions happening
Interesting Timing
- Skechers U.S.A., Inc. the third largest footwear company in the world, today announced that it has agreed to be acquired by 3G Capital, a global investment firm built on an owner-operator approach to long-term investing.
- 3G gets discount as tariffs are softening price
- Helped to move the other names in the space higher
Heads I Win....
- President Donald Trump took credit for the "good parts" of the economy in an exclusive interview with NBC News airing Sunday, but said that the "bad parts" are former President Joe Biden's economy.
- "Ultimately, I take responsibility for everything, but I've only just been here for a little more than three months," Trump said.
- "The tariffs have just started kicking in. ... The tariffs are going to make us rich. We're going to be a very rich country," he added.
In terms of shortages:
- "I don't think a beautiful baby girl needs – that's 11 years old – needs to have 30 dolls," Trump said.
- "I'm just saying [children] don't need to have 30 dolls, they can have three, they don't need to have 250 pencils, they can have five," he added.
- But, Mira Lago has 58 bedrooms, 33 bathrooms, a 29-foot-long (8.8 m) pietra dura marble-top dining table, 12 fireplaces, and three bomb shelters.
---WHAT?
Ford Earnings
- Ford Motor beats by $0.14, misses on revs, co suspends FY25 guidance; says business is strong, adjusted EBIT tracking within prior guidance, excluding new tariff-related impacts
- Based on what the company knows now, and its expectation of how certain details and changes will be resolved related to tariffs, the company estimates a net adverse adjusted EBIT impact of about $1.5 bln for full-year 2025. Given material near-term risks, co is suspending guidance.
Block Earnings (Last week)
- Revenue decreased about 3% from $5.96 billion a year earlier.
- Gross profit rose 9% to $2.29 billion from $2.09 billion a year earlier. That missed analysts' forecasts of $2.32 billion for the quarter.
- Gross payment volume hit $56.8 billion, missing expectations of $58 billion, according to StreetAccount.
- Stock plunges

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Palantir Earnings
- Palantir Technologies reports EPS in-line, beats on revs; guides Q2 revs above consensus; guides FY25 revs above consensus
- Reports Q1 (Mar) earnings of $0.13 per share, excluding non-recurring items, in-line with the FactSet Consensus of $0.13; revenues rose 39.4% year/year to $883.9 mln vs the $862.17 mln FactSet Consensus.
- U.S. commercial revenue grew 71% year-over-year and 19% quarter-over-quarter to $255 million.
- U.S. government revenue grew 45% year-over-year and 9% quarter-over-quarter to $373 million.
- Co issues upside guidance for Q2, sees Q2 revs of $934-$938 mln vs. $899.44 mln FactSet Consensus.
- Co raises guidance for FY25, sees FY25 revs of $3.890-$3.902 bln vs. $3.75 bln FactSet Consensus. Raises adjusted income from operations guidance to between $1.711 -- $1.723 billion.
- Stock down- probably some profit taking as valuation is a bit stretched
Kentucky Derby
- AI Wins!
- Sovereignty won the 151st running of the Kentucky Derby in Louisville, Kentucky, in a thrilling fight to the finish line on Saturday to capture the first leg of U.S. thoroughbred racing's famed Triple Crown.
- The bay colt thrived in the wet and sloppy conditions at Churchill Downs to finish the 1-1/4-mile race in two minutes and 2.31 seconds, beating the heavy favorite Journalism down the final straight.
- AH fed some prompts into CoPilot and a few horse came out as potential winners.
- - Added some questions about track conditions and other items - Sovereignty came out as the top pick
Omaha
- Warren Buffett said he will ask the board of Berkshire Hathaway to replace him as CEO with his already designated successor, Greg Abel, at year end.
- Buffett noted that he would still 'hang around' to help, but the final word would be with Abel.
- Buffett not selling a single share...
Here is the answer
- Last month's chaos in the bond market now revealed
- Japan says massive Treasury stockpile among tools for US trade talks
- - Was there a little show of potential going on with China and Japan to wake up US?
Netflix Drops
- New levy on movies made outside the US?
- President Donald Trump announced plans to impose a 100% tariff on films produced overseas, stating "WE WANT MOVIES MADE IN AMERICA, AGAIN!"
- Shares in US media and entertainment companies fell, with Netflix and Warner Bros. Discovery down about 3%, and Paramount Global and Walt Disney Co. down about 2%.
- The proposed tariff has raised questions about how it would work, with many films involving global production and unclear valuation for tariff collection purposes.
- How does this work and why is this happening?
- FYI - Movie The Apprentice The film is a joint production of Canada, Denmark, Ireland and the United States.
Winning Streak Over
- Friday - Dow jumped 500 points
- S&P 500 posts longest winning streak in 20 years
- 90 Day extension/Pause on tariffs
- Clearly the collective views tariffs as negative for the world economy
Apple Earnings
- Apple — Shares shed 4% after the iPhone maker reported fiscal second-quarter services revenue of $26.65 billion while analysts had expected $26.70 billion, according to StreetAccount.
- This number still represented an annual increase of 11.65%.
Amazon Earnings
- Amazon posted better-than-expected earnings and revenue for the quarter, but gave soft guidance for the current period. - Amazon is forecasting operating income to land between $13 billion and $17.5 billion, which fell short of the $17.64 billion consensus call, per StreetAccount.
- The company also said tariff and trade policies could affect its guidance.
More Amazon
- Amazon reported a 19% increase in online ad revenue in the first quarter, beating analyst estimates.
- Ad sales climbed to $13.92 billion, while analysts on average were expecting $13.74 billion, according to StreetAccount.
- Although Amazon's online ad business represents a fraction of overall sales, it's emerged in recent years to become the third-biggest platform in the global digital advertising market, behind only Alphabet and Meta.
Credit Suisse Again
- Credit Suisse will pay about $511 million to settle a criminal case for having conspired with American taxpayers to hide more than $4 billion in at least 475 offshore accounts.
- The conspiracy allowed “ultra-high-net-worth and high-net-worth individual clients” of the Swiss corporation to evade their U.S. tax obligations from 2010 through 2021, the Department of Justice said.
- “In doing so, Credit Suisse AG committed new crimes and breached its May 2014 plea agreement with the United States,” DOJ said.
- Slap on the hand
Currency Intervention
- Hong Kong's de-facto central bank stepped into the foreign exchange market on Tuesday as the currency hit the top end of its band for a fourth time this month, spurred by a broader selloff in the U.S. dollar against several low-yielding currencies.
- The Hong Kong Monetary Authority bought $7.8 billion (HK$60.5 billion) against the Hong Kong dollar on Tuesday, and has been intervening since May 2 as the currency repeatedly hit 7.75, the upper limit of its peg to the U.S. dollar.
- Weird moves: the Taiwan dollar which rose an unprecedented 8% over two sessions to reach three-year highs.
------While analysts have found it difficult to determine a precise reason for the rally, they point to the progress in Sino-U.S. trade talks and a general loss of faith in the U.S. currency and its debt as possible triggers for investors rushing to unwind carry trades and buy back home currencies.
Kohls
- Kohl's announced on Thursday that it fired CEO Ashley Buchanan after an investigation found he violated company policies.
- The retailer said its board terminated Buchanan, who became chief executive in January, after the investigation "determined Mr. Buchanan violated company policies by directing the Company to engage in vendor transactions that involved undisclosed conflicts of interest."
- The investigation "found Mr. Buchanan had directed the Company conduct business with a vendor founded by an individual with whom Mr. Buchanan has a personal relationship on highly unusual terms favorable to the vendor and that he also caused the Company to enter into a multi-million dollar consulting agreement wherein the same individual was a part of the consulting team," the retailer said in a Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) filing.
Fed Rate decision Wednesday
- Zero expectation of a rate cut
- Even though oil prices falling and concern over the economy
- Unemployment at 4.2% and economy slowing, not in terrible shape
- Also, plenty of inflation markers in the system to keep the Fed on hold

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1 hr
April 30, 2025 DHUnplugged #750: Bread Lines?
Oh boy – Supply Chain Concerns again?
Summertime lines – for goods/food? Empty shelves?
China factories shutting down.
Talks/No-Talks Underway with China/US.
PLUS we are now on Spotify and Amazon Music/Podcasts!
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Warm-Up
- Now Supply Chain Concerns
- Summertime lines - for goods/food? Empty shelves?
- China factories shutting down
- Talks/No-Talks Underway with China/US
- DONE DONE DONE - Lutnick
Markets
- Capital Raise - Big Boost - ELON
- Economics - Big Week
- Earnings - The big tech names are on tap
- Berkshire annual meeting and earnings this weekend
ELON
- Elon Musk's xAI Holdings is in discussions with investors to raise about $20 billion, Bloomberg News reported.
- The funding would value the company at over $120 billion, according to the report.
- THIS: The artificial intelligence firm last month acquired X in an all-stock deal that valued xAI at $80 billion and the social media platform at $33 billion.
- "This combination will unlock immense potential by blending xAI's advanced AI capability and expertise with X's massive reach."
- ELON also says that he will be stepping back from DOGE and refocus on TESLA
HAHA! FAV STORY!
- Tesla reported a $97 million loss due to digital assets, the company’s Bitcoin holdings. In the fourth quarter, there was a gain of $270 million.
- Tesla now excludes Bitcoin swings from its non-GAAP results. Tesla also backs out stock-based compensation from its adjusted numbers.
- That means the Bitcoin gains were included in the company’s fourth-quarter adjusted results, and the losses weren’t included in the first-quarter adjusted results.
- Tesla’s report states that the accounting switch was due to the “adoption of the new crypto assets standard.”
Powell Under Fire - Update
- All is good - no new discussions is helping keep a bid under markets
Are Talks Ongoing at ALL?
- China says NO
- US says YES
- Which is it?
DONE DONE DONE
- Commerce Secretary Howard Lutnick on Tuesday teased that the Trump administration has reached its first trade deal, but said it was not fully finalized and declined to name the country involved.
- “I have a deal done, done, done, done, but I need to wait for their Prime Minister and their parliament to give its approval, which I expect shortly,” Lutnick told CNBC’s Brian Sullivan.
Unusual Winner
- With consumer sentiment shrinking and concerns about recession
- Travel companies are feeling the pinch - BUT, Travel insurance companies are cashing n on the Cancel for Any Reason Plans
- People want to travel but are hesitant as they don't know what will be in the future - therefore buy travel insurance
- No pure-play publicly traded stock
-- Berkshire Hathaway Travel Protection, Nationwide
Amazon White House
- The White House on Tuesday slammed Amazon for reportedly planning to display the cost of President Donald Trump's tariffs next to the total price of products on its site.
- "This is hostile and political act by Amazon," White House press secretary Karoline Leavitt said at a press briefing.
- "Why didn't Amazon do this when the Biden administration hiked inflation to the highest level in 40 years?" Leavitt asked.
- Amazon spokesperson tells Washington Post putting tariff rates next to products "was never under consideration for the main Amazon website.
- Says Amazon Haul has considered listing import price duties on certain products.
----- What is our take on this?
Big Moves
- Novo Nordisk and Hims & Hers Health, Inc. (NYSE: HIMS) today announced a long-term collaboration designed to make proven obesity care and treatments more accessible, more affordable, and more connected for millions of Americans.
- HIMS up 25% on the news (Disclosure H&C Clients own HIMS)
Grass is Greener
- Scotts Miracle-Gro to focus on lawn care business after marijuana hopes did not work out, according to Barron's
COVID Supply Chain redux
- Chinese manufacturers are pausing production and turning to new markets as the impact of U.S. tariffs sets in, according to companies and analysts.
- The lost orders are also hitting jobs.
- "I know several factories that have told half of their employees to go home for a few weeks and stopped most of their production," said Cameron Johnson, Shanghai-based senior partner at consulting firm Tidalwave Solutions. He said factories making toys, sporting goods and low-cost Dollar Store-type goods are the most affected right now.
- "There is a hope that tariffs will be lowered so orders can resume, but in the meantime companies are furloughing employees and idling some production."
- SHELVES BARE BY SUMMER
More Supply Chain
- DHL Express, a division of Germany's Deutsche Post said it would suspend global business-to-consumer shipments worth over $800 to individuals in the United States from April 21, as U.S. customs regulatory changes have lengthened clearance
- DHL blamed the halt on new U.S. customs rules which require formal entry processing on all shipments worth over $800. The minimum had been $2,500 until a change on April 5.
In the Meantime
- A growing number of Americans are using buy now, pay later loans to buy groceries, and more people are paying those bills late, according to new Lending Tree data
- The figures are the latest indicator that some consumers are cracking under the pressure of an uncertain economy and are having trouble affording essentials such as groceries as they contend with persistent inflation, high interest rates and concerns around tariffs.
- In a survey conducted April 2-3 of 2,000 U.S. consumers ages 18 to 79, around half reported having used buy now, pay later services. Of those consumers, 25% of respondents said they were using BNPL loans to buy groceries, up from 14% in 2024 and 21% in 2023
- Meanwhile, 41% of respondents said they made a late payment on a BNPL loan in the past year, up from 34% in the year prior, the survey found.
Earnings - Some Bright Spots
- ServiceNow was the second enterprise software company to give better-than-expected guidance this week, helping to boost shares of its peers and making the sector appear to be a potential safe port in a stormy market.
- Not sure why this should be a bright-spot - unless employment report stays looking good
More Bright Spots
- Coca-Cola beat Wall Street's quarterly earnings and revenue estimates Tuesday and largely reaffirmed its full-year outlook, as it said it expects the effects of global trade conflicts to be "manageable."
- Here's what the company reported compared with consensus estimates from Wall Street analysts surveyed by LSEG:
---- Earnings per share: 73 cents adjusted vs. 71 cents expected
-----Revenue: $11.22 billion adjusted vs. $11.14 billion expected
Economics
- First Friday of the Month = Employment Report
- Estimates are for 125k added to payrolls (last month +228k)
- 4.2% URate is expected
- PCE Prices Wednesday - 0% change
- GDP Advanced - looking for a negative print on that
Build it!
- Budget process
- Republicans in the U.S. Congress plan to introduce a sweeping $150 billion defense package that will give an initial $27 billion boost to President Donald Trump's Golden Dome missile defense shield and bolstering shipbuilding
- The measure would supercharge the national defense budget with new money to build 14 warships and lift homeland security spending. This will add $150 billion to the already approved $886 billion national security budget for 2025
- It will be part of Trump's sweeping tax cuts bill, which will cut taxes by about $5 trillion and add approximately $5.7 trillion to the federal government's debt over the next decade.
DataCenter Update
- Amazon and Nvidia executives said that the construction of artificial intelligence data centers is not slowing down, as recession fears have some investors questioning whether tech companies will pull back on some their plans.
- Remember on the heels of some news from Microsoft scratching some deal flow, there was speculation that there was more of a widespread slowdown.
- "There's been really no significant change," Kevin Miller, Amazon's vice president of global data centers, said at conference organized by the Hamm Institute for American Energy. "We continue to see very strong demand, and we're looking both in the next couple years as well as long term and seeing the numbers only going up."
- Nvidia is also not seeing signs of a slowdown, said Josh Parker, the chipmaker's senior director of corporate sustainability.
----"Anthropic and the other AI companies, what we're seeing is tremendous growth in the need for new baseload power. We're seeing unprecedented growth," Clark said.
Chip Update
- A Wall Street Journal report said Chinese chip designer Huawei Technologies is preparing to test its newest and most powerful AI processor, called the Ascend 910D. Huawei is slated to receive its first batch of the new chips as soon as late May from contract manufacturer Semiconductor Manufacturing International, known as SMIC, the report said.
- NVDA gell on the nws
Sovereign Wealth Fund
- Norges Bank Investment Management — the largest sovereign wealth fund in the world — last week reported a first-quarter loss of 415 billion kroner ($40 billion), citing weakness in the tech sector.
- Fund has $1.8 Trillion of investment - 70% Stocks - LET'S DISCUSS
Earnings Coming
- Apple, Amazon and Meta
- Exxon, Chevron
- Caterpillar, Pfizer and Eli Lilly
IBM Promises
- IBM will invest $150 billion in the U.S., including on facilities for quantum computer production, over the next five years, the latest American technology company to back the Trump administration's push for local manufacturing.

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1 hr 1 min
April 23, 2025 DHUnplugged #749: Fed UP And OUT
CEOs Selling stock
Fed Put in question – Powell under Fire from White House – Markets FED UP!
Earnings Season – VERY CLOUDY
USD Weak – what are investors thinking?
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Warm-Up
- Chaos - What next?
- Rates - moving in the wrong direction again
- USD Weak - what are investors thinking?
- A moment for Pope Francis
- CEOs - Selling stock
Markets
- Markets have had it - Done with this nonsense
- Fed Put in question - Powell under Fire from White House - Markets FED UP!
- Earnings Season - VERY CLOUDY
- VIX - back above 30 again (~35)
- HyperScalers - not so Hyper...
Update One Time Competition - Put Lyrics to Music - The Tariff Blues (DHUnplugged Shirt and Song Play)
- We have a clear winner from all of the entries and will announce and play at end of the show - I think it is awesome!
ECB
The Governing Council today decided to lower the three key ECB interest rates by 25 basis points. In particular, the decision to lower the deposit facility rate -- the rate through which the Governing Council steers the monetary policy stance -- is based on its updated assessment of the inflation outlook, the dynamics of underlying inflation and the strength of monetary policy transmission.
Powell Under Fire
- President Trump says "The ECB is expected to cut interest rates for the 7th time, and yet, “too late” Jerome Powell of the Fed, who is always too late and wrong.....Too Late should have lowered interest rates, like the ECB, long ago, but he should certainly lower them now. Powell’s termination cannot come fast enough!"
- President Trump says he is "not happy" with Fed Chair Jerome Powell; says he thinks Mr. Powell would leave if he asks him to do so
- Is he going to ask - will he leave????????
- How will markets react?
--- STOP THE PRESSES - Already did a 180 on that..."No intention of firing Powell"
Flurry of Deal Comments Tuesday
- As expected, most contradict the other
- Confusion as to how long
- general happy thoughts - nothing concrete
- Markets reacted positively then came off highs
Pentagon in Chaos?
- White House looking for a new Secretary of Defense, according to NPR
- Will he now have a Podcast or go back to Fox and Friends?
- Of course the White House press secretary is denying
Skinny Minny
- Eli Lilly soaring after announcing positive late-stage trial results for its oral weight-loss and diabetes drug, orforglipron, paving the way for a possible launch by the end of 2025
- Novo Nordisk is looking for FDA approval of their pill-form Wegovy weight loss medication
Some Eco
- April Philadelphia Fed Index -26.4 vs. 10.0 Briefing.com consensus; prior 12.5
- March Building Permits 1.482 mln vs. 1.455 mln Briefing.com consensus; prior revised to 1.459 mln from 1.456 mln
- March Housing Starts 1.324 mln vs. 1.418 mln Briefing.com consensus; prior revised to 1.494 mln for 1.501 mln
- March Leading Indicators -0.7% vs. -0.4% Briefing.com consensus; prior revised to -0.2% from -0.3%
IMF - Downgrades US ECO
- The US growth forecast for this year has been given the biggest downgrade among advanced economies by the International Monetary Fund (IMF) as a result of uncertainty caused by trade tariffs.
- Growth is now expected to be 1.8% this year, down from the IMF's estimate of 2.7% for the US in January.
- The sharp increase in tariffs and uncertainty will lead to a "significant slowdown" in global growth, the Fund predicts.
NVDA
- NVIDIA breaks below $100 as China-based rival Huawei reportedly preps updated AI chip for mass shipment
- Last week, NVDA gapped lower after writing down its inventory by around $5.5 bln, indicating challenges in obtaining licenses to export its re-tooled AI chips, the H20, to China.
- While not on the same level as NVDA's flagship B200, or Blackwell, platform, the 910C fills a void in the Chinese market.
- For perspective, NVDA's H20, which was a scaled-down version of the H100, was still maintaining sequential growth over the past few quarters, shows the healthy demand for the watered-down chip. With Huawei's 910C touting better performance than the H20, it may quickly become the top choice among Chinese businesses.
Tesla
- Analysts are getting tired (FED UP) of the lack of focus by Elon
- Several downgrades due to concerns about DOGE politics hitting the brand
- Even Fanboys are giving up as they are saying that the company is no longer even pursuing the original goals - EVs
- PLUS - Now the company is delaying the lower cost Model Y that is was promising
TESLA EARNINGS
- Miserable, but not a surprise
- Tesla prelim Q1 $0.27 vs $0.41 FactSet Consensus; revs $19.34 bln vs $21.34 bln
- Tesla misses by $0.14, misses on revs, total automotive revenue down 20%; Reiterates that Cybercab is scheduled for volume production starting in 2026
- Stock up slightly after hours - How much worse can it get?????
Sector Update for April
Sectors
-- Meanwhile
- EFA (Europe and Far East) up 6% YTD
- EEM (Emerging Mks Stock) - FLAT
- China up 4.8% YTD
- Gold up 27% YTD
- USD DOWN 9.5% - Down 5.5% April
-The U.S. dollar continued its slide, falling to its lowest level since 2022, as global investors retreat from U.S. assets in the face of tension between President Donald Trump and the Federal Reserve.
Travel Stocks
- Was HOT, now NOT
Travel Stocks
Boeing Update
- Chinese airlines have been ordered not to take any further deliveries of Boeing aircraft in response to the U.S. imposing 145% tariffs on Chinese goods, Bloomberg News reports.
--- UPDATE - China sent back a 737MAX - No Thanks!
Tit for Tat
- China on Monday warned it will retaliate against countries that cooperate with the U.S. in ways that compromise Beijing's interests, as the trade war between the world's two largest economies threatens to embroil other nations.
- China's warning comes as U.S. President Donald Trump's administration is reportedly planning to use tariff negotiations to pressure U.S. partners to limit their dealings with China. Trump this month paused major tariff increases on other countries for 90 days, while hiking duties further on goods from China to 145%.
- "China firmly opposes any party reaching a deal at the expense of China's interests. If this happens, China will not accept it and will resolutely take reciprocal countermeasures,"
A Moment for Pope Francis
- Died on Easter Monday
- Conclave next - Smoke
What happens when a Pope dies
- The death of a pope is officially confirmed by a cardinal known as the camerlengo (chamberlain), currently Irish-American Cardinal Kevin Farrell.
- Until sometime in the 20th century, this was ritually done by tapping a silver hammer on the pope's forehead three times. Nowadays it is a simple matter involving a doctor and a death certificate.
- Traditionally, a mourning period of 15 days is observed before a conclave to elect a new pope can begin, although it can begin sooner if the cardinals choose to.
- Voting - Locked in until new Pope is chosen -
--After each round of voting, the ballots are burned. White smoke indicates a new pope has been elected, while black smoke means another round of voting is needed
--- Only cardinals under the age of 80 — currently a group of about 135 — are eligible to vote.
- Factoid: Youngest Pope was Pope Benedict IX - at the age of 20
---- ALSO, only Pope to be Pope twice - AND, and the only person ever accused of selling the papacy
Uber in HOT Water
- The Federal Trade Commission filed a lawsuit today against Uber, alleging the rideshare and delivery company charged consumers for its Uber One subscription service without their consent, failed to deliver promised savings, and made it difficult for users to cancel the service despite its "cancel anytime" promises.
- The FTC alleges that the company's deceptive billing and cancellation practices violate the FTC Act and the Restore Online Shoppers' Confidence Act (ROSCA), which requires online retailers to clearly disclose the terms of the service they are selling, obtain consumers' consent before charging them for a service, and provide a simple way to cancel a recurring subscription.
Hyperscalers (Wells Fargo Report)
- Amazon: AWS pauses some colocation leasing talks, signaling near-term hyperscale slowdown
- Microsoft also reportedly tapping brakes
- Watch uopcoing earnings for additional insights
- April 30 - MSFT May 1 - AMZN
Good timing? Or Overblown?
---- Nice hatchet job by the press on programs that were generally already in place
- Meta Platforms Chief Executive Officer (CEO) Mark Zuckerberg and JPMorgan Chase & Co. CEO Jamie Dimon were among eight other top executives who sold their shares before US President Donald Trump announced the ‘reciprocal tariffs’ on April 2, 2025
---This stake sale was carried out under a 10b5-1 plan which was implemented by Zuckerberg himself in August 2024
- Nikesh Arora is the CEO of Palo Alto Networks Inc., and has sold a total of 2,365,196 or more than 2.36 million shares, which are worth $432,371,610
--- Another stock sale program that was already in existence
- Jamie Dimon was another name that was mentioned - but he also has a program in place...
Trading Curbs
-Taiwan's top financial regulator said on Saturday it would extend temporary curbs on the short-selling of shares to help ensure stock market stability, and did not give an end date for when the restrictions might be lifted.
- The curbs were first imposed on April 6 after the United States imposed sweeping import tariffs, prompting global market turmoil. Initially imposed for one week, they were then extended for a further week.
OH Canada
- Canadian Prime Minister Mark Carney's campaign platform plans released on Saturday include tax cuts and new spending on infrastructure and defense, as he pledges a new economic order that is less reliant on the United States.
And Finally
- Japan's inflation grew 3.6% year on year in March, marking three straight years that the headline inflation figure is above the Bank of Japan's 2% target.

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The Tariff Blues
- Craig Weinberg
VPD Studio | WhyMilbank
Video | Photography | Design | A/V | Podcast
vpdstudio.com | whymilbank.com | theinterviewpodcast.org
Tariff Blues
“The Tariff Blues”
(A little tongue-in-cheek, a little serious)
(Verse 1)
Well, I woke up this mornin’, checked the price of steel,
Looked at my bottom line, don’t know how to feel.
Tariffs keep risin’, costs outta control,
Tryna sell my goods, but it's takin’ a toll.
(Chorus)
Oh, these tariffs, they’re givin’ me the blues,
Trade war’s burnin’, got too much to lose.
They tax me here, they tax me there,
Tryna make a dime, but it just ain’t fair.
(Verse 2)
China’s pushin’ back, Europe’s got a plan,
Companies scramblin’, doin’ all they can.
Supply chains broken, prices climbin’ high,
All because the leaders see eye for an eye.
(Bridge)
Maybe one day, we’ll shake hands and see,
That fair trade’s better than a high-duty spree.
But ‘til that day, I’m ridin’ this storm,
Tryna keep my business alive and warm.
(Outro)
Oh, these tariffs, they’re makin’ me sigh,
Money’s flyin’ out, watchin’ profits die.
Someday we’ll fix it, but for now it’s tough,
'Cause tariff blues—man, they’re rough!
(Chorus)
Oh, these tariffs, they’re givin’ me the blues,
Trade war’s burnin’, got too much to lose.
They tax me here, they tax me there,
Tryna make a dime, but it just ain’t fair.

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1 hr 1 min
April 16, 2025 DHUnplugged #748: Who’s to Blame?
If this wasn’t idiotic it would be funny
President Miyagi at it again – Tariff on – Tariff Off
Winning – We are Winning so much. Too much winning!
Earnings season rolls on
PLUS we are now on Spotify and Amazon Music/Podcasts!
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DHUnplugged is now streaming live - with listener chat. Click on link on the right sidebar.
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Warm-Up
- If this wasn't idiotic it would be funny
- President Miyagi at it again - Tariff on - Tariff Off
- Winning - We are Winning so much. Too much winning!
- Earnings season rolls on
- Need a new CTP stock
Markets
- Key Reversal Indicator - 1st Green cluster bottom on Monday and Tuesday - Called the near-term bottom
- Stock markets slammed
- President Trump discussing stocks
- Economic Pissing Match - Even more tariffs, or bluffs
- VIX HITS 60 back UNDER 30
ANNOUNCING - One Time Competition - Put Lyrics to Music - The Tariff Blues (DHUnplugged Shirt and Song Play)
Nice end to the week!
- Markets gave some hope to the idea that more exceptions were coming
- Across the board, markets gained for the week in highly volatile trade
- Last week and the week before saw extreme movements
- Bond yields (10 yr) swung between 3.7% and 4.5% (add that to historic records)
- At one point equity futures were swinging 1% every 10 minutes in average during height of volatility
Wild Ride
VIX
- Moving lower as things settle down a bit
- This is something that everyone should understand - VIX does not stay elevated forever...
- VIX moves lower as shocks expire
- Great tool for risk management and trading during wild market moves
--- Get in and out...
Not Inflationary..(wink)
- China increased tariffs to 125%
- US Increased China tariffs to 145%
--- Speaking with colleagues and business owners - they are raising prices as cannot absorb thee levels
Tariffs
- Are we sick of this discussion yet?
- hares of automakers jumped during midday trading Monday following President Donald Trump saying he's looking to "help some of the car companies."
--- Auto companies are expecting to see a drop in vehicle sales in the millions, higher new and used vehicle prices, and increased costs of more than $100 billion for the industry, according to research reports from Wall Street and automotive analysts.
- BCG expects tariffs to add $110 billion to $160 billion on an annual run rate basis in costs to the industry, which could impact 20% of U.S. new-vehicle market revenues, increasing production costs for both U.S. and non-U.S. manufacturers.
- Weekend - Some exemptions are being made for semi's, smartphones and other electronics (Shares jumped Monday)
Workaround
- Apple airlifted $2 bln worth of iPhones from India ahead of tariffs
Boeing
- Chinese airlines have been ordered not to take any further deliveries of Boeing aircraft in response to the U.S. imposing 145% tariffs on Chinese goods, Bloomberg News reports.
Zero Day
- Newsline: Wild intraday gyrations in stocks since "liberation day" have put investors more on edge than ever, and the popularity of zero-day-to-expiration options is partly to blame.
- Zero-day-to-expiration options are contracts that expire the same day that they're traded.
- The trading volume of 0DTE options tied to the S&P 500 surged to 8.5 million in April, a 23% jump since the beginning of the year and accounting for roughly 7% of the total volume in U.S. option markets, according to data from JPMorgan.
NVDA - News Drop
- Nvidia said on Tuesday that it will take a quarterly charge of about $5.5 billion tied to exporting H20 graphics processing units to China and other destinations.
- The H20 is an AI chip for China that was designed to comply with U.S. export restrictions. It generated an estimated $12 billion to $15 billion in revenue in 2024.
- Nvidia’s H20 chip is comparable to the H100 and H200 AI chips used in the U.S. and other countries, but it has slower interconnection speeds and bandwidth. It’s based on a previous generation of AI architecture called Hopper introduced in 2022. Nvidia is now focusing on selling its current generation of AI chips, called Blackwell.
- Nvidia said in Tuesday’s filing that the U.S. government told the company on Monday that the license requirement for H20 chips would be in effect “for the indefinite future.”
- Stock down 6% A/H
Bank Earnings
- Bank of America (BAC) posted earnings per share (EPS) of $0.90 on revenue of $27.37 billion, surpassing projections of $0.82 EPS and $26.80 billion revenue.
-----CEO Brian Moynihan noted that while consumer credit and wealth management remained strong, the bank is preparing for potential economic shifts.
- Wells Fargo (WFC) reported EPS of $1.39, up from $1.20 a year ago, but revenue fell to $20.15 billion, missing estimates. ------CEO Charlie Scharf warned of a slower economy due to concerns over tariffs.
- JPMorgan Chase (JPM) saw net income rise 9% to $14.6 billion, with EPS reaching $5.07, beating expectations of $4.63. The bank benefited from strong trading revenue.
- Morgan Stanley (MS) achieved record quarterly revenues of $17.7 billion, driven by investment banking and wealth management.
-----The firm attracted $93.8 billion in net new assets.
- BlackRock (BLK) reported assets under management reaching a record $11.58 trillion, though net income fell 4% to $1.5 billion.
- Goldman Sachs reported strong first-quarter earnings, with net revenues of $15.06 billion and net earnings of $4.74 billion. The firm’s diluted earnings per share (EPS) reached $14.12, reflecting a solid performance in investment banking and trading.
----CEO David Solomon highlighted that clients continue to turn to Goldman Sachs for execution and insight, especially in uncertain market conditions
-=-=-=-=-Despite strong earnings, bank executives are expressing caution about the economic outlook, particularly regarding trade policy and potential market volatility.
CRAZY Prediction
- Maybe not so crazy
- - Navarro is going to take the blame for market madness and get shut down..
==== Especially after that reciprocal tariff calculation (5th grade economics)
Meta/Facebook
- The FTC is seeking to force Meta to restructure or sell Instagram and WhatsApp, testing President Donald Trump's promises to take on Big Tech while posing an existential threat to a company that by some estimates earns about half of its U.S. advertising revenue from Instagram.
- The FTC has pointed to emails in which Zuckerberg proposed acquiring photo-sharing app Instagram as a way to neutralize a potential Facebook competitor and expressed worry that encrypted messaging service WhatsApp could grow into a social network.
- News saying it is an EXISTENTIAL threat to the company
Eurozone Talk
- Not much movement and Europe is stating that their tariffs are staying on
- Markets did not like this on Tuesday as there was hope for quick action
- Is Europe playing the game - looking for Trump to blink there too?
Ladies who Rocket
- Blue Origin lifted off with an all girl crew
- The six-person crew also included Jeff Bezos' fiancée Lauren Sanchez, Katy Perry, CBS host Gayle King, former NASA rocket scientist Aisha Bowe, scientist Amanda Nguyen and film producer Kerianne Flynn.
Green Jacket
- Congrats to Rory McIlroy ! Masters winner and gets his green coat
- Finally gets the grans slam (The Masters, the PGA Championship, the U.S. Open, and the Open Championship)
- 4.2 million win for Rory - 2.26 for Justin Rose (one putt.....)
A few of these...
- Chinese bourses have set daily restrictions on net share sales by hedge funds and large retail investors, four sources said on Friday, as Beijing steps up support for its stock markets in an intensifying trade war with the United States.
- Two investor sources said a soft limit on daily net sales by individual hedge funds and big retail investors - implemented through verbal warnings from brokerages - had been set at 50 million yuan ($6.83 million).
- Turkey banned short selling
- South Korea too (ended now)
- Thailand stopped short selling
- Taiwan imposed short selling curbs
What about King Dollar?
- US Dollar index dropped to lowest level since 2022.
- What is the reasoning?
Where are the bargains?
S&P Sectors YTD

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Tariff Blues
“The Tariff Blues”
(A little tongue-in-cheek, a little serious)
(Verse 1)
Well, I woke up this mornin’, checked the price of steel,
Looked at my bottom line, don’t know how to feel.
Tariffs keep risin’, costs outta control,
Tryna sell my goods, but it's takin’ a toll.
(Chorus)
Oh, these tariffs, they’re givin’ me the blues,
Trade war’s burnin’, got too much to lose.
They tax me here, they tax me there,
Tryna make a dime, but it just ain’t fair.
(Verse 2)
China’s pushin’ back, Europe’s got a plan,
Companies scramblin’, doin’ all they can.
Supply chains broken, prices climbin’ high,
All because the leaders see eye for an eye.
(Bridge)
Maybe one day, we’ll shake hands and see,
That fair trade’s better than a high-duty spree.
But ‘til that day, I’m ridin’ this storm,
Tryna keep my business alive and warm.
(Outro)
Oh, these tariffs, they’re makin’ me sigh,
Money’s flyin’ out, watchin’ profits die.
Someday we’ll fix it, but for now it’s tough,
'Cause tariff blues—man, they’re rough!
(Chorus)
Oh, these tariffs, they’re givin’ me the blues,
Trade war’s burnin’, got too much to lose.
They tax me here, they tax me there,
Tryna make a dime, but it just ain’t fair.

See this week’s stock picks HERE
Follow John C. Dvorak on Twitter
Follow Andrew Horowitz on Twitter
1 hr
April 09, 2025 DHUnplugged #747: Bluffing and Pissing Matches
Tariffs are killing markets.
A glimpse int what happens when we take a difference course
Markets making some of the wort moves in decades
Billionaires – all in on Trump lost billions…
WAIT !!!!!! Maybe a 90-day pause on Tariffs now…Or Not…
More finesse, less sledge hammer?
PLUS we are now on Spotify and Amazon Music/Podcasts!
Check this out and find out more at: http://www.interactivebrokers.com
Click HERE for Show Notes and Links
DHUnplugged is now streaming live - with listener chat. Click on link on the right sidebar.
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Warm-Up
- Markets making some of the worst moves in decades
- Billionaires - all in on Trump lost billions...
- WAIT !!!!!! Maybe a 90-day pause on Tariffs now...Or Not...
- More finesse, less sledge hammer?
Markets
- Key Reversal Indicator - 1st Green cluster bottom on Monday.. Oversold?
- Stock markets slammed
- President Trump discussing stocks
- Economic Pissing Match - Even more tariffs, or bluffs
- VIX HITS 60!
-- A Quick Poem - Green Eggs and Navarro
--- One of the gents that responded to Vietnam's desire to have zero tariffs as "not enough"
DAX on Monday and other Markets
- Opened up down 10% - clawed back a bunch by end of the day
- European stocks down 1.5% YTD 2024
- US Stock bearing the brunt of the move
- Hong Kong (after being closed Friday) - closed Monday DOWN 13%!
- Monday in Japan, Markets halted, futures trading suspended as Nikkei and Topix plunge more than 5%
--- Follow up - then up 6% the next day
- Monday YTD US Markets:
Heads Up - Just in...
- Tuesday at 12:30PM
- 'White House Press Secretary says 104% additional tariffs went into effect at noon eastern time because China has not removed it's retaliation. The 104% additional tariff will be collected starting tomorrow April 9th'
-Markets were trying to right themselves - up big to start the day - then this headline....
- What if - China comes back at 200%?
More:
- Tuesday afternoon : White House Secretary Karoline Leavitt answers questions on trade at briefing: President Trump not considering delay in tariffs that are due to go into effect tomorrow at 12:01 AM
- Where is the negotiation? Seems like a pissing match or bluff with unlimited funds.
If you are interested
- Rand Paul making all sorts of sense this morning
- Trades are win-win. Trade does not mean that one side has to win and one lose.
- https://www.cnbc.com/video/2025/04/08/sen-rand-paul-on-trump-tariffs-trade-is-an-integral-part-of-capitalism.html
Stupid
- Taiwan's top financial regulator said on Sunday it will impose temporary curbs on short-selling of shares to help deal with potential market turmoil from U.S. President Donald Trump's new import tariffs, and will take other steps as needed.
- Taiwan's Financial Supervisory Commission said in a statement it would limit the number of shares that can be sold short and raise the minimum short-selling margin ratio to 130% from 90%, starting from Monday and lasting until Friday.
- We have seen how this plays out in the past.
More references to bluffing
- "I think it was a big mistake, this Chinese escalation, because they're playing with a pair of twos," Bessent said during an interview on CNBC's "Squawk Box." "What do we lose by the Chinese raising tariffs on us? We export one-fifth to them of what they export to us, so that is a losing hand for them."
VIX
- Hits 60 on Monday - then backs off to 45
- Not often we see a run like that.
- Still at 45 shows big concerned about near-term volatility.
--- S&P 500 top to bottom 7% move today - VIX was at 37 - back to 52
BREAK - IBKR
Billionaires losing $$
- Do we feel bad?
- Sample of losses on Liberation Day
- Zuck lost $18B
- Bezos lost $15B
What?
- Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent says Americans looking to retire aren’t concerned about day-to-day markets, dismisses concerns about a potential recession
- During an interview with NBC News' "Meet the Press," Bessent called it a "false narrative" that Americans who are close to retiring may be reticent to do so after their retirement savings may have dropped this week due to the stock market downturn.
- Remember who this is saying this:
-----Bessent played a key role in currency and fixed income markets, notably being part of the team that profited over $1 billion from the 1992 UK sterling crisis
- Bessent was a partner at Soros Fund Management
Meanwhile
- Global hedge funds and levered exchange-traded funds (ETFs) dumped more than $40 billion of stocks at a breakneck pace, growing increasingly bearish after President Donald Trump's shock announcement of harsher-than-expected global tariffs, according to bank notes to clients on Friday.
- Since when Trump boosted tariff barriers to their highest level in more than a century, S&P 500 companies have lost over $4 trillion in stock market value.
- Total stock market losses in US more than 9 TRILLION
Trump Flip-Flop? Or Not?
- President Donald Trump said Sunday evening that he is not intentionally engineering the ongoing stock market sell-off, but said little to try and dissuade it.
- "I don't want anything to go down, but sometimes you have to take medicine to fix something," Trump told reporters aboard Air Force One Sunday night when asked about the markets.
- Report that President Trump is considering 90 day pause in tariffs except for China
--- Market went nuts (UP) - from down 3% to up 3% in minutes - Initially White House did not confirm the report
---- What can we learn from this though?
------ A slower more deliberate plan could be beneficial - still do what you are doing, a but more surgical, less sledge-hammer policy making - Bully tactics
- Businesses - Business groups planning to challenge President Trump's tariff authority in the courts
Crypto Currencies
- Bitcoin fell below the $79,000 level as investors braced for more financial market volatility after U.S. equities suffered their worst decline since 2020 on the rollout of President Donald Trump's restrictive global tariffs.
- Etherium is down 60% YTD and much over the past several weeks
Exploding Sex Toys Plot
- Pillows, packed into the parcels with the cosmetics and sex toys, contained hidden homemade incendiary devices made of a cocktail of chemicals including highly reactive magnesium, according to the person familiar with the case who provided the most granular account yet of the alleged plot.
- Fake Cosmetics and sex toys filled with homemade explosives
- European security chiefs made the parcel fires public in October, describing them as part of a "hybrid war" being waged by Russia to destabilize the functioning of countries that support Ukraine, involving tactics like arson and cyberattacks.
Some better news?
- The U.S. Senate approved a Republican budget blueprint early on Saturday that aims to extend trillions of dollars worth of President Donald Trump's 2017 tax cuts and sharply reduce government spending.
- Non-partisan analysts say the measure, if enacted, would add about $5.7 trillion to the federal government's debt over the next decade. Senate Republicans contend the cost is $1.5 trillion, saying that the effects of extending existing tax policy that was scheduled to expire at the end of this year should not be counted in the measure's cost.
- So this is not a tax cut, it is a continuation or else we get higher taxes.
Inside Scoop
- Hearing that some of the biggest private equity players are marking down their real-estate assets by 25% and that is causing some issues
- Remember Private Equity is supposed to be the best for the long haul.
Lots of Push Back from Hedge Fund Dudes
- Billionaire investor Bill Ackman called for a 90-day "time-out" on President Donald Trump's reciprocal tariffs, warning of the United States bringing forth a "self-induced, economic nuclear winter."

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FED AND CRYPTO LIMERICKS
About - Peter Navarro (AI generated)
I do not like him, Sam-I-Am,
I do not trust his market jam.
I do not like his tariff fight,
It makes the numbers look less bright.
I would not take his grand advice,
For trade wars come at quite the price.
I do not like his gloomy spin,
It warps the facts deep down within.
I will not buy what he has sold,
His forecasts seem a bit too bold.
I do not like him here or there,
His views just float on empty air.
So take those eggs—green as they stand,
And let them rest in someone’s hand.
For I do not like him, Sam-I-Am,
Not with green eggs, nor with that ham!
See this week’s stock picks HERE
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1 hr 5 min
April 02, 2025 DHUnplugged #746: Best Deal Ever!
Big changes – lots of year-end market S&P 500 downgrades.
Recession and stagflation
April – a quick look at some interesting highlights of April (historically)
Bill Gates out with a big prediction
The Best Deal Ever! (ELON)
PLUS we are now on Spotify and Amazon Music/Podcasts!
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Warm-Up
- Big changes - lots of year end market S&P 500 downgrades
- Recession and stagflation
- April - a quick look at some interesting highlights of April (historically)
- Bill Gates out with a big prediction
- The Best Deal Ever! (ELON)
Markets
- Corrections happen
- Market jumped off the down worst levels on Monday - is worst priced in?
- Earnings season starts 4/11 - JPM to report
- Year end price targets - lowering
- Yields DOWN - Was that the plan all along?
OpenAi
- OpenAI on Monday announced it had closed its $40 billion funding round, the most ever raised by a private tech company.
- The deal values OpenAI at $300 billion, including the new capital.
- The round comes to $30 billion from SoftBank and $10 billion from a syndicate of investors.
Google Trends
- Stagflation - Keyword Search hit highest point in a long time.
- Lots of talk about the potential for higher inflation and softer jobs
Friday is the UnEmp Report
- Expectations are that the rate will tick up from 4.1% to 4.2%
- 145-150k people added to the jobs rolls
---- That would till be good numbers.
Tariff Day - AKA Liberation Day
- April 2nd is the date that the retaliatory tariffs go on-
- Facts say you? (I am not a smart man....)
--- Between China and Canada, Mexico, estimates that the tariffs would bring in $150 Billion in 2025.
- The US Stock market has lost $5.25 TRILLION during the same time
- US GDP is $29 trillion annually - what is $150 BILLION going to do?
- The U.S. federal budget deficit for fiscal year 2025 is projected to be approximately $1.9 trillion.
Reagan - He is revered...ReaganOmics......
- April 25, 1987 - Radio Address..
- " And today many economic analysts and historians argue that high tariff legislation passed back in that period called the Smoot-Hawley tariff greatly deepened the depression and prevented economic recovery. You see, at first, when someone says, Let's impose tariffs on foreign imports,' it looks like they're doing the patriotic thing by protecting American products and jobs. And sometimes for a short while it works -- but only for a short time. What eventually occurs is: First, homegrown industries start relying on government protection in the form of high tariffs. They stop competing and stop making the innovative management and technological changes they need to succeed in world markets. And then, while all this is going on, something even worse occurs. High tariffs inevitably lead to retaliation by foreign countries and the triggering of fierce trade wars. The result is more and more tariffs, higher and higher trade barriers, and less and less competition. So, soon, because of the prices made artificially high by tariffs that subsidize inefficiency and poor management, people stop buying. Then the worst happens: Markets shrink and collapse; businesses and industries shut down; and millions of people lose their jobs.
- https://www.reaganlibrary.gov/archives/speech/radio-address-nation-free-and-fair-trade-4
Something to Consider...
- Talk on the street: " Tariffs are a negotiation tactic" (What does that mean anyway)
-- Assumption: "US will win the negotiation"
- - Has anyone considered: What if it does not?
- The thought is that it needs to be "fair"
Atlanta GDPNOW
- Liked when it looks good - disregarded when looks bad
- January 31 initial GDP Forecast for Q was +2.9%
- Latest April 1 -3.7%
- Core PCE well above target too...
GDP Now Q1
US DEI - Mandate to Europe
- Government officials have reportedly sent letters to companies in France and the European Union that hold U.S. government contracts, warning them to comply with an executive order banning diversity, equity and inclusion programs if they want to keep their contracts.
- According to the document, "Department of State contractors must certify that they do not operate any programs promoting DEI that violate any applicable anti-discrimination laws and agree that such certification is material for purposes of the government's payment decision and therefore subject to the False Claims Act."
Pardon'd
- Trevor Milton - Nikola Corp. founder Trevor Milton said Thursday that he had been granted a full pardon by President Donald Trump for his October 2022 conviction of federal crimes related to defrauding investors with false claims about the success of the electric and hydrogen-powered truck maker.
- President Trump on Friday commuted the prison sentence of Carlos Watson, the founder of the now-defunct digital media startup Ozy Media
S&P 500 Year End Targets
- Several financial institutions have recently adjusted their S&P 500 price targets.
- Barclays reduced its target to 5,900 from 6,600 due to concerns about tariff uncertainties and slowing economic growth.
- RBC Capital Markets lowered its target to 6,200, previously at 6,500, citing trade policy worries and market volatility.
- UBS adjusted its target to 6,400, down from 6,600, reflecting the anticipated economic impact of U.S. tariffs.
- Goldman Sachs recently revised its price target for the S&P 500. The bank lowered its year-end target to 5,700 points, down from a previous estimate of 6,200 points
April Quick Facts
- Some interesting things over time that happened in April
- In April 1930, during the Great Depression, the stock market experienced a brief rally as investors were hopeful for recovery. However, this optimism was short-lived as economic conditions continued to worsen.
- April 2000, the dot-com bubble burst. This led to a massive market crash and reshaped the tech industry, bringing an end to the overinflated valuations of many tech companies.
- In April 2013, Bitcoin experienced its first significant price surge, surpassing $200 per coin. This marked a pivotal moment for cryptocurrency, bringing it into the mainstream financial conversation
- April 1998, the euro was officially announced as a currency. This set the stage for its eventual role as a major player in global finance.
- Historically, the S&P 500 has shown strong performance in April. Over the past several decades, the index has delivered an average return of approximately 1.5% during this month. April is often considered one of the better months for the market, with a high probability of positive returns.\
Bill Gates
- Over the next decade, advances in artificial intelligence will mean that humans will no longer be needed "for most things" in the world
- At the moment, expertise remains "rare," Gates explained, pointing to human specialists we still rely on in many fields, including "a great doctor" or "a great teacher."
- But "with AI, over the next decade, that will become free, commonplace — great medical advice, great tutoring
- Gates is optimistic about the overall benefits AI can provide to humanity, like "breakthrough treatments for deadly diseases, innovative solutions for climate change, and high-quality education for everyone
-- Why would we need education of AI can do the thinking for us?
Best Deal Ever!
- xAI buys X for $33 billion (loss of $11 billion on the deal)
--- $45 Billion less $13 billion debt (of course it was as the original purchase was $44 billion so it shows as a "good deal" at first glance)
- All stock deal
- The "future of AI" is here!
- xAI valued at 80 billion
- OOOPS - here is the catch - Can you imagine you were part of the xAI money raise and now you own Twitter for $33 Billion???
--- What in the world is this all about? Seems like there will be some lawsuits (like when SolarCity was bought by Tesla)
- Investor trust in xAI may be shaken due to the perception that Musk used pumped-up xAI stock to execute the deal, raising questions about transparency and fairness
NIIIIICE!
- Newsmax trading higher by 506% following its IPO
- Newsmax has grown in popularity, positioning itself as a competitor to Fox News in the center-right market.
- Small deal - $75 million was the IPO - created a giant squeeze.. (was as much as a 700% gain for a minute)
- NMAX UP 90% again on Tuesday - was as high as $180/share after IPO @ $10 (Hit $250 today)
Which Automakers ?
- Tariff Woes
- General Motors (GM) has been identified as one of the hardest-hit automakers by the recent 25% tariffs on imported vehicles and auto parts. Only about 45% of GM's vehicles sold in the U.S. are produced domestically, leaving the remaining 55%—manufactured in Canada and Mexico
- Additionally, Stellantis, which owns brands like Jeep, Chrysler, Dodge, and Ram, has also faced challenges.
- Expectations are that new car prices will increase $5,000 - $10,000, high end models $20,000 (But we are not paying for that - just saying - SOOOOO MUCH DUMB)
Acquisition
- Rocket Companies has announced its acquisition of Mr. Cooper Group in an all-stock transaction valued at $9.4 billion.
- This merger combines Rocket, the largest mortgage lender in the U.S., with Mr. Cooper, the largest servicer of residential mortgages.
- Together, the combined entity will oversee a servicing portfolio worth $2.1 trillion, representing nearly one in every six mortgages in the country.
- The deal is expected to generate significant financial benefits, including $400 million in annual cost savings and $100 million in new revenue through streamlined operations and enhanced customer offerings.
Kalshi march madness bets
- Kalshi's March Madness prediction markets have gained significant traction, with over $200 million invested during the NCAA men's basketball tournament
- Binary and other betting styles
- Each contract is priced based on the probability of the event occurring, and if your prediction is correct, the contract pays out $1. This unique approach combines elements of financial trading with the excitement of forecasting real-world events
- getting very popular on other financial websites - we have one we are going to introduce you to in the next couple of weeks.
GDP Outlook
- The annualized GDP growth rate for the U.S. in 2025 is projected to be around 1.9%, according to the Congressional Budget Office
- Next quarter is supposed to be only 0.3%
- Some are marking down GDP and raising odds of a recession (Still less that 50% for most major firms)
Pulling Back from China
- Microsoft has closed its IoT & AI Insider Lab in Shanghai’s Zhangjiang hi-tech zone, marking the latest sign of the US tech giant’s retreat from China amid rising geopolitical tensions.
- The Shanghai lab, meant to help with domestic development of the Internet of Things (IoT) and artificial intelligence (AI) technologies, closed earlier this year, according to people who work in the Zhangjiang AI Island area.
Hooters
- Restaurant chain Hooters of America filed for bankruptcy in Texas on Monday, seeking to address its $376 million debt by selling all of its company-owned restaurants to a franchise group backed by the company's founders.
- Not to worry - not closing - just a restructuring...

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1 hr 2 min
March 26, 2025 DHUnplugged #745: The Lag 7
Inflation – Transitory again..
April 2 dealing approaching!
Doctor Copper!
Mag 7 = Lag 7
A New Closest to The Pin!
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Warm-Up
- Inflation - Transitory again
- End of month - March not so good for US Markets - investors may try to squeeze toward the end
- Tariff waves - now there is talk of softening - April 2 is the day - next Wednesday.
- A restaurant Chain at ALL-TIME highs....
- Turkey - Market Mayhem
- An fun Limerick from a Listener
Markets
- Doctor Copper!
- Mag 7 = Lag 7
- Tesla Woes- Stock bouncing but challenges still remain
- March Sadness for Markets...
Attention Collectors!
- The New DHUnplugged shirts are finally here! We are going to sell only 6 - the donations received by the end of the month above $250 will get a shirt - Nice white swim/light long sleeve. (The rest are reserved for winners and special occasions) - We will also have the #1 as the first shirt ever out to the public for $1,000.
- Put your address and size in the comments
Tariff Day
- April 2nd is the date that the retaliatory tariffs go on
- Why April 2nd? Why not April 1st??????
--- Worried that is April Fool's day and no one would take them seriously?
Copper Prices
- 45 year high
- What is this? Usually a predictor of the economic conditions -
- Seems like a little inflation (China also pumping)
- FYI - An average single-family home contains roughly 439 pounds (or 200 kilograms) of copper, primarily in wiring, plumbing, appliances, and hardware
Doctor Copper
What about Coffee?
- Chart - Cents per pound
- These increases are driven by climate-related impacts on major coffee-producing countries like Brazil and Vietnam, as well as financial speculation in the market
- DOUBLE THE PRICE of last year
Coffee Prices
Housing Prices
- Reports that tariff induced panic is prices of raw materials is pushing prices up
- Developers are not going to get behind and this may push prices up - on average $10,000 per new home (at least)
Powell on Inflation
- Back to Transitory
- In his latest speech/commentary last week, he hinted that he believes that the current
- During his post-decision press conference last Wednesday, Powell said tariff-induced inflation could be “transitory,” or temporary.
- Here we go again!
Stagflation Anyone?
- Fed sees higher inflation and an economy growing by less than 2% this year
- The rate-setting Federal Open Market Committee downgraded its collective outlook for economic growth to 1.7%, down from the last projection of 2.1% in December. In the meantime, officials hiked their inflation outlook, seeing core prices growing at a 2.8% annual pace, up from the previous estimate of 2.5%.
- In a statement, the FOMC noted the "uncertainty around the economic outlook has increased," adding that the central bank is "attentive to the risks to both sides of its dual mandate."
Meanwhile...
- The 3-month Treasury rate inverted against the 10-year for a bit earlier this month.
- Currently they are locked at the same rate...
- This is the Fed's "preferred" measure of the potential for a recession in the future.
Boeing
- Boeing wins $20-billion contract for Next Generation Air Dominance program
- Win comes after Boeing annual loss, strike, other setbacks
- On the news, Boeing's shares rise, Lockheed's fall
- Lockheed has been plagued by delays in F-35 upgrade
- New name of the aircraft? The F-47 !
New-Clear Energy
- A nuclear power plant on the shores of Lake Michigan is aiming to make history this fall by becoming the first reactor in the U.S. to restart operations after shutting down to be eventually dismantled.
- The effort to restart the Palisades plant near South Haven, which shut down three years ago, is a precedent-setting event that could pave a path for other shuttered reactors to come back online.
- The restart project is backed by a $1.5 billion loan guarantee from the Department of Energy, $1.3 billion from the Department of Agriculture, and $300 million in grants from the state of Michigan.
- HOWEVER: Holtec (company reunning the operation) is facing major repairs to Palisades' aging steam generators that could delay a schedule the NRC has called demanding. Holtec has disclosed to regulators that its inspections have found damaged tubes in the plant's two generators, which were installed in 1990.
Tesla - Return to Sender
- Tesla owners are trading in their electric vehicles at record levels, according to an analysis by national car shopping site Edmunds.
- The data from Edmunds published on Thursday said that March represented "the highest ever share" it had seen for Tesla trade-ins toward new or used cars from dealerships selling other brands.
- In addition, Tesla is facing increased competition from EV makers.
- In January, S&P Global Mobility found Tesla sales declined about 11% year-over-year in the U.S., while Ford, Chevrolet and Volkswagen bolstered their sales of EVs, picking up market share.
LAG 7
- Brutal start to the year
- Down about 11% - that is 4%+ for the S&P 500 (55% of the NASDAQ 100 market cap)
- In 2024, the Mag7 accounted for about 75% of the S&P 500's earnings growth, but this is expected to drop to 33% in 2025 as growth broadens across other sectors
All-Time High - Restaurant
- Darden Restaurants owns a diverse portfolio of popular dining chains, including:
- Their portfolio includes Olive Garden, famous for Italian-American cuisine and unlimited breadsticks,
- LongHorn Steakhouse, which specializes in steaks and hearty American dishes.
- Cheddar's Scratch Kitchen, offering comfort food made from scratch,
- Yard House, known for its extensive beer selection and globally inspired menu.
- The Capital Grille, a premium steakhouse,
- Eddie V's Prime Seafood, which focuses on seafood and steak.
- Seasons 52 offers seasonal, health-conscious dishes,
- Bahama Breeze provides a Caribbean-inspired culinary experience.
- Darden recently expanded its portfolio by acquiring Ruth's Chris Steak House, celebrated for its sizzling steaks
- Latest add-on Chuy's, a Tex-Mex chain
Turkey - More Strong Man Moves
- The Turkish lira fell to a record low against the dollar and the country's benchmark stock index dropped by as much as 7% following the surprise arrest of Istanbul mayor Ekrem Imamoglu — a rival of Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan and leading opposition party figure — on charges he denies.
- Imamoglu, who won the mayorship of Turkey's most populous city in April of 2023, was arrested on charges including terrorism and organized crime,
- Stock market was down as much as 7% on the day before recovering a bit.
23 and No-One
- Embattled genetic testing company 23andMe, once valued at $6 billion, filed for Chapter 11 bankruptcy protection in Missouri federal court on Sunday night.
- The company’s CEO, Anne Wojcicki, has resigned from her role as chief executive effective immediately, though she will remain a member of the board.
- 23andMe’s stock has mostly been in free fall in recent years as the company struggled to generate recurring revenue and stand up viable research and therapeutics businesses. As of Monday morning, the company has a market capitalization of around $25 million
- Supposedly - Millions of people will have their DNA data put up for sale after major at-home testing company 23andMe filed for bankruptcy
- TOLD YOU NOT TO DO IT!
Crazy Fires
- Fires in London close Heathrow for a day - causing a travelers nightmare
- First in the Florida keys - causing a driving nightmare - all roads closed.
Congrats....
- Engaged couple Jeff Bezos and Lauren Sanchez have reportedly mailed out invitations to guests who they want attending their upcoming wedding.
---- Did we get ours?
- "News: After a nearly two-year engagement, Jeff Bezos and Lauren Sanchez have sent out formal invitations for a wedding this summer in Venice, per sources familiar," Dylan Byers of Puck News reported on X.
- "What an incredible year – you set your mind to writing a children’s book and now you’re a NYT best selling author," the Amazon founder said in an Instagram post wishing his fiancee a happy birthday. "I have a feeling your next trip around the sun will be just as amazing."

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Chris Davison
Now Andrew’s a big tariff hater,
Seeing price-rises sooner, not later,
If inflation increases,
It ruins Trump’s thesis,
And the stock market once again craters.
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1 hr 6 min
March 19, 2025 DHUnplugged #744: March Market Madness
– Markets still unsettled
– Retail spending down – another bankruptcy (but who they blame?)
– Consumer frayed
A New Closest to The Pin!
PLUS we are now on Spotify and Amazon Music/Podcasts!
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Warm-Up
- Markets still unsettled
- Retail spending down - another bankruptcy (but who they blame?)
- Consumer frayed
- Announcement #1 Closest to the Pin is a good one...
- Announcement # 2 New DH Shirts - attention collectors...
- March madness - BBall and Markets
Markets
-Worst month since 2023 - and it is not over
- USD is dropping - loss of confidence
- Gold - keeps shining - wow what a run!
- Revenge of the Dems on Markets? Tesla stock pummeled...(We initiated a new position on this drop - today)
- US Stocks - where is the money going?
Attention Collectors!
- The New DHUnplugged shirts are finally here! We are going to sell only 6 - the donations received by this Friday - March 21 above $250 will get a shirt - Nice white swim/light long sleeve. (The rest are reserved for winners and special occasions) - We will also have the #1 as the first shirt ever out to the public for $1,000.
- Put your address and size in the comments
Consumer Confidence
- The preliminary University of Michigan Index of Consumer Sentiment for March experienced a significant drop, falling to 57.9 compared to the Briefing.com consensus of 65.6 and the final reading of 64.7 in February. This marked the third consecutive decline in consumer sentiment.
--- A year ago during the same period, the index stood notably higher at 79.4.
- Several key factors contributed to this decline.
-- The Current Economic Conditions Index decreased from 65.7 to 63.5, down from 82.5 a year earlier.
-- Similarly, the Index of Consumer Expectations saw a sharp drop from 64.0 to 54.2, compared to 77.4 a year ago.
-- Inflation expectations also played a significant role, with year-ahead inflation expectations climbing from 4.3% to 4.9%, marking the highest level since November 2022.
--- Additionally, long-run inflation expectations increased from 3.5% to 3.9%, the largest month-over-month rise since 1993.
!--The overarching takeaway from the report was that the decline in sentiment affected various demographic groups across age, income, wealth, political affiliations, and geographic regions, with inflation concerns and policy uncertainty emerging as critical factors behind the drop.
Consumer Confidence
Private Equity
- Time Bomb Twitter post?
- Yes, agree PE is getting too mainstream and not a good amount of liquidity - not right for most investors
- Is it the next bomb waiting to happen?
HANG ON!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!
- Jeremy Siegel is sayibg market could go lower (Tom Lee !!!! We need you!!!!)
- Speaking on current market conditions, Siegel pointed to several risk factors that could push stocks lower in the near term. Key concerns include persistently high inflation, Federal Reserve policy decisions, and growing fears of an economic slowdown. While markets have shown resilience in recent months, he believes investors may be overly optimistic about the trajectory of interest rates and economic growth.
- “The market has priced in a near-perfect landing,” Siegel said, referencing investor expectations that the Fed will successfully bring inflation down without triggering a recession.
- However, he warns that there are still significant headwinds that could derail this outlook.
Retail
- Forever 21 filed for bankruptcy protection for the second time in six years on Sunday and blamed fast-fashion e-tailers Shein and Temu for its demise.
- The retailer's operating company is expected to cease all operations in the U.S. and has already begun liquidation sales at its more than 350 locations, but it's still open for bids if a buyer is willing to take on its inventory and keep running its stores, court filings show.
- Forever 21 has been seeking a buyer for several months and made contact with more than 200 potential bidders, 30 of which signed confidentiality agreements, but no viable deal has come together
Following the money
- Money flowing out of the US and clearly into other areas (with better valuations) around the world.
China
- China's economic data for the first two months of the year showed a modest pickup as Beijing reiterated its plan to bolster domestic consumption.
- China's markets are also doing pretty good
- Retail sales rose by 4.0% in the January-February period from a year ago, compared with the 3.7% year-on-year growth in December and in line with Reuters estimates.
- Industrial production climbed 5.9% in the first two months of the year from a year ago, slower than the 6.2% growth in December, but faster than a 5.3% expansion forecast by analysts in a Reuters poll.
- Fixed asset investment, reported on a year-to-date basis, rose by 4.1%, beating the 3.6% growth estimated by economists
Europe
- Germany’s Bundestag on Tuesday voted in favor of a major fiscal package, which includes changes to long-standing debt policies to enable higher defense spending and a 500 billion euro ($548 billion) infrastructure and climate fund.
- German markets hitting ATH
- European markets up and investors helped by Euro moving higher as well
Select Markets - Compared to US Markets
- EEM up 8% YTD
- China - up 24%
- EFA up 11.7%
- Gold - Up 13%
- Crude - Down 4%
- Copper up 22%
Spin Masters (Is this the right spin?)
- Treasury Secty Bessent - said Sunday that the Trump administration is focused on preventing a financial crisis that could be the result of massive government spending over the past few years.
- “What I could guarantee is we would have had a financial crisis. I’ve studied it, I’ve taught it, and if we had kept up at these spending levels that -- everything was unsustainable,” Bessent said on NBC’s “Meet the Press.”
- “We are resetting, and we are putting things on a sustainable path.”
- Bessent noted that there are “no guarantees” there won’t be a recession.
- “I’ve been in the investment business for 35 years, and I can tell you that corrections are healthy. They’re normal,” he said. “What’s not healthy is straight up, that you get these euphoric markets.
- - That’s how you get a financial crisis. It would have been much healthier if someone had put the brakes on in ’06, ’07. We wouldn’t have had the problems in ’08.”
DOGE - Pain before Gain?
- Two companies led by billionaire DOGE chief Elon Musk — SpaceX and Tesla have submitted letters lobbying the U.S. trade representative on Trump administration tariff policies.
- But the two companies had different messages for U.S. Trade Representative Jamieson Greer.
-- The electric vehicle maker Tesla warned of the negative effect on its bottom line from tariffs and from duties imposed by other countries on U.S.-made products in retaliation for those tariffs.
- SpaceX complained that operating costs for its Starlink internet satellite service are increased by trade barriers abroad, while foreign competitors face no such costs in the United States.
--- It seems that the letters were not signed - so deniability is there for the reaction?
Lutnik on the Economy
- Commerce Secretary Howard Lutnick argued Wednesday that former President Joe Biden — not his boss, President Donald Trump — is to blame for recent negative economic data and a plunge in stock prices.
- When is the cut off for the economy and stock market for ex-President?
- When asked recently about the negative eco data:
- - - "You're looking at Biden data," Lutnick retorted.
- - - "Do not try to besmirch my President Trump with Biden's nonsense," Lutnick said.,
Airline News
- Frontier Airlines on Tuesday announced new amenities for travelers including a promotion for a free checked bag after competitor Southwest Airlines ended its free bags policy.
- In interview, CEO said they will test this through August and it should show their lower cost and their better service as compared to rival Southwest.
Google News
- Google will buy cybersecurity firm Wiz for $32 billion to boost the tech giant’s in-house cloud computing amid burgeoning artificial intelligence growth.
- The all-cash acquisition announced Tuesday would be Google’s biggest in its 26-year history, and it is the biggest deal of 2025.
- Wiz will join Google Cloud, boosting Google’s in-house cloud security in the era of AI, the companies said.
- “Wiz and Google Cloud are both fueled by the belief that cloud security needs to be easier, more accessible, more intelligent, and democratized, so more organizations can adopt and use cloud and AI securely,” Wiz CEO Assaf Rappaport said in a blog post.
- Wiz, based in New York, was founded in 2020 and makes security tools designed to protect information stored in remote data centers.
Adobe
- Photoshop and other Adobe products finally have competition - that is real
- Canva cutting into margins
- Adobe posted decent earnings but stock well off
- Peaked at about $550 at the start of 2025 - now $389
OOOPS
- Almost made the same mistake again
- Citigroup mistakenly credit a customer's account with $81 trillion last year when it meant to send just $280.
- The payment, which took place last April, was missed by two employees but caught 90 minutes after it was posted
- Can you imagine?
From Microst Blog
- After 21 year run -MSFT is shutting down Skype after May 2025
- "In order to streamline our free consumer communications offerings so we can more easily adapt to customer needs, we will be retiring Skype in May 2025 to focus on Microsoft Teams (free), our modern communications and collaboration hub.?"

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