DHUnplugged Podcast

DHUnplugged #306: The Blackout Looms Large


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As earnings season approaches, companies will be in their blackout periods, unable to buy their stocks through certain repurchase plans. Without that added liquidity, what will result?
U.S. markets are flirting with unchanged for the year as the massive rally  over the past few weeks has pushed valuations back into the danger zone, but with central banks showing more desire to stimulate, it may not matter… or will it?
Just last week, the Fed sent a confusing message to markets, now we are “only” to expect 2 rate hikes this year – so much for following the economic indicators.
All this and the winners of the latest Closest to the Pin…..

Click HERE for Show Notes and Links
Terrorists hit Belgium… Once again Europe is the center of attention – just days after the capture of the Paris bombings “mastermind”. Two separate attacks, ISIS claims responsibility. U.S. Markets shrug off – Europe modestly lower.  (Recall that the last couple of attacks saw massive market rallies)

— Of course the usual rumors of other potential acts circulated today as shorts/bears try to push on the news – none were confirmed.
Global Economics – Take a look at the stats for Manufacturing..
Markit PMI Table
Valaent Pharma (VRX) – Remember last week, we questioned whether the CEO’s 2-month leave for “pneumonia” was for real? Well… Monday it was announced that CEO Pearson will be leaving the company. Ackman was appointed to board. Stock up 15% in reaction. (Note: CEO leaving does not seem to be good news as it may lead to more revelations about some of the internal issues with the company…)
VRX Chart
Nike (NKE) has announced that a self-tying ( or self adjusting) shoe will be out by the end of the year. Now that seems to be progress!

— Nike earnings released today  (stock down 5%++ after hours…)

– NIKE Q3 EPS $0.55 vs. $0.48 Capital IQ Consensus; rev $8.032 vs. $8.2 bln consensus

– NIKE Futures Orders +12%; +17% in constant currency vs. estimates in the mid to high teens ex-FX

— Futures as reported (ex-FX): North America +10%, W. Eur +16% (+23%), C & Eur +5% (+14%), China +28% (+36%), Japan +23% (+24%), Emerging -3% (+14%).
IMPORTANT: Sales will increase by a high-single-digit percentage during the next fiscal year, the company said on a conference call Tuesday. Analysts had projected a rate of about 10 percent for that period. Earnings will rise in the low teens, Nike said, compared with an estimate for growth of about 15 percent.
Nike’s “Back to the Future” Shoe
Will liquidity dry up like it did the first quarter before and during earnings season? Retail still pulling out of equities?

Deutsche Bank reports:
Buyback blackout period starts Monday. An increasing number of S&P 500 companies will enter into their blackout period starting next week, about a month before the earnings season kicks into high gear in the third w...
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DHUnplugged PodcastBy Horowitz and Dvorak

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