Did the Forecast Hold?

(00:00:00) A powerful March 14 storm

(00:00:49) Backside snow and the widespread wind threat

(00:01:23) Severe risks, gusts and tornado potential

(00:02:25) Chicago's overnight storm window

(00:03:00) Record warmth and the next system

(00:04:02) Zapata heat and the low-pressure track

(00:05:55) Final Chicago timing and safety reminders

POPULAR ARCHIVE 12 OF 22 | Original Weather With Enthusiasm audio, preserved as supplied.

HISTORICAL RECORDING, NOT A CURRENT FORECAST. The review below is written only and is not spoken in this audio. No AI review narration has been added.

Recording/content date: 2025-03-14. Verified source-edition publication: 2025-03-14 15:37:31 UTC.

FORECAST VS. REALITY
A strong call on the regional wind hazard, overnight storm passage and tornado potential, including the distinction between thunderstorm winds and the following non-thunderstorm wind event.

WHAT THE ORIGINAL AUDIO SAYS
A late-night line of severe storms March 14–15, damaging wind and brief tornado risks in northern Illinois, followed by another period of strong non-thunderstorm winds.

PUTTING THE FORECAST IN CONTEXT
Peak gusts were presented as threats, not as a promise that every weather station would reach that number. The observed corridors of severe wind damage support the warning. The separate lower non-thunderstorm gusts refine the comparison without negating the useful broader alert.

NWS confirms a line of thunderstorms crossed northern Illinois and northwest Indiana late March 14 into early March 15, producing widespread damaging winds and four tornadoes in the Chicago forecast area.
(National Weather Service event report: https://www.weather.gov/lot/20...

Local ground surveys and observations support corridors of 70–80-mph straight-line wind damage near Ottawa and DeKalb, consistent with the severity flagged in the recording.
(National Weather Service event report: https://www.weather.gov/lot/20...

The separate non-thunderstorm wind periods on March 14 and 15 generally produced peak gusts of 40–50 mph, rather than 60 mph at most locations.
(National Weather Service event report: https://www.weather.gov/lot/20...

SCOPE OF THIS CHECK
A severe-storm risk is not a promise of a tornado at each address; the exact Chicago arrival minute, pressure record, Texas high and next-week system are not scored in this review.

CHAPTERS IN THE ORIGINAL AUDIO
00:00 A powerful March 14 storm
00:49 Backside snow and the widespread wind threat
01:23 Severe risks, gusts and tornado potential
02:25 Chicago's overnight storm window
03:00 Record warmth and the next system
04:02 Zapata heat and the low-pressure track
05:55 Final Chicago timing and safety reminders

Review prepared October 19, 2026. Checks are limited to cited locations, dates and metrics; no numerical accuracy score is assigned. 'Popular Archive' is the publisher's selection label, not a verified current rank. Cover artwork is illustrative, not a historical map or photograph of this specific event.

Source episode ID: 64883382. Original source edition: 3/14:( Popular) Severe Weather in Midwest, Wind Storm Shabbos Includes Chicago
https://www.spreaker.com/episo...

Become a supporter of this podcast: https://www.spreaker.com/podcast/did-the-forecast-hold--7479728/support.

(00:00:00) April 28 introduction and India's heat

(00:02:27) How Americans perceive New Delhi's climate

(00:04:30) India's humidity and heat exposure

(00:05:23) The wet-bulb-temperature claim

(00:07:21) Seasonal heat, humidity and El Niño

(00:09:18) Tel Aviv aside and sign-off

(00:10:08) Archive show trailer

POPULAR ARCHIVE 11 OF 22 | Original Weather With Enthusiasm audio, preserved as supplied.

HISTORICAL RECORDING, NOT A CURRENT FORECAST. The review below is written only and is not spoken in this audio. No AI review narration has been added.

Recording/content date: 2024-04-28. Verified source-edition publication: 2024-04-28 22:27:24 UTC.

FORECAST VS. REALITY
The episode's warning of severe Indian heat was well founded; the specific wet-bulb projection needs to remain unverified rather than being inferred from high air temperatures.

WHAT THE ORIGINAL AUDIO SAYS
An intensifying Indian heat wave and a possible 35°C (95°F) wet-bulb temperature during the coming week.

PUTTING THE FORECAST IN CONTEXT
The episode's strongest message was that humidity can make extreme heat more dangerous, not simply that a single thermometer value would be reached everywhere. The official record supports the severity of the heat wave. It does not supply the paired, timed observations needed to validate the more specific wet-bulb claim.

IMD's May 2 weekly release documents heat-wave to severe heat-wave conditions in Odisha and West Bengal throughout April 25–May 1, with other affected regions including Bihar and Jharkhand.
(India Meteorological Department weekly report: https://internal.imd.gov.in/pr...

Kalaikunda in West Bengal reached 47.2°C on April 30, about 117°F, supporting the recording's warning about intense air temperatures.
(India Meteorological Department weekly report: https://internal.imd.gov.in/pr...

The IMD release does not report a measured 35°C wet-bulb temperature, so its 47.2°C air-temperature observation cannot verify that different metric.
(India Meteorological Department weekly report: https://internal.imd.gov.in/pr...

SCOPE OF THIS CHECK
No individual city-and-time wet-bulb observation is supplied in the recording; New Delhi should not be assumed to share Kalaikunda's conditions, and the 35°C value is not a universal safety threshold below which heat is harmless.

CHAPTERS IN THE ORIGINAL AUDIO
00:00 April 28 introduction and India's heat
02:27 How Americans perceive New Delhi's climate
04:30 India's humidity and heat exposure
05:23 The wet-bulb-temperature claim
07:21 Seasonal heat, humidity and El Niño
09:18 Tel Aviv aside and sign-off
10:08 Archive show trailer

Review prepared October 19, 2026. Checks are limited to cited locations, dates and metrics; no numerical accuracy score is assigned. 'Popular Archive' is the publisher's selection label, not a verified current rank. Cover artwork is illustrative, not a historical map or photograph of this specific event.

Source episode ID: 59689020. Original source edition: Extreme Heat In India With WBT of 35C°/95°F to finish April (Most popular episode on YouTube)
https://www.spreaker.com/episo...

Become a supporter of this podcast: https://www.spreaker.com/podcast/did-the-forecast-hold--7479728/support.

(00:00:00) April 2 storm introduction

(00:01:26) The low's unusual Great Lakes track

(00:02:28) Chicago's rain-to-slushy-snow transition

(00:03:58) Wisconsin accumulation forecast

(00:04:26) Snow ratios, melting and model totals

(00:05:01) Northeast redevelopment

(00:06:21) The eventual Chicago warm-up

POPULAR ARCHIVE 10 OF 22 | Original Weather With Enthusiasm audio, preserved as supplied.

HISTORICAL RECORDING, NOT A CURRENT FORECAST. The review below is written only and is not spoken in this audio. No AI review narration has been added.

Recording/content date: 2024-04-02. Verified source-edition publication: 2024-04-02 23:16:17 UTC.

FORECAST VS. REALITY
The forecast recognized Wisconsin's substantial wet-snow and wind impacts and correctly cautioned about melting; the 8–14-inch Green Bay-area range was higher than the official city-area measurement.

WHAT THE ORIGINAL AUDIO SAYS
Little Chicago accumulation, but substantial Wisconsin snow, including roughly 8–14 inches around Green Bay and north, with strong winds and melting limiting model snow totals.

PUTTING THE FORECAST IN CONTEXT
The audio stresses near-freezing conditions, wet snow and model overestimation, which are directly relevant to the outcome. The local difference should be described alongside that useful caution, not as a failure to recognize the storm. A station observation is also narrower than the full area covered by a regional forecast.

NWS Green Bay lists a 6.5-inch official storm total at Ashwaubenon, with 7.8 inches west-northwest of Appleton and 8.0 inches at Greenville.
(National Weather Service event report: https://www.weather.gov/grb/Th...

The event produced a 56-mph gust at Green Bay Airport, wet-snow tree and power-line damage, and more than 100,000 people without power across Wisconsin at the height of the storm.
(National Weather Service event report: https://www.weather.gov/grb/Th...

NWS describes above-freezing air and roads, lakeside rain and substantial sensitivity to just one or two degrees, supporting the warning against taking raw model snowfall literally.
(National Weather Service event report: https://www.weather.gov/grb/Th...

SCOPE OF THIS CHECK
The record does not justify a universal rule of halving a model's snow output; Chicago neighborhood accumulation and the subsequent Northeast storm are outside this station-and-event check.

CHAPTERS IN THE ORIGINAL AUDIO
00:00 April 2 storm introduction
01:26 The low's unusual Great Lakes track
02:28 Chicago's rain-to-slushy-snow transition
03:58 Wisconsin accumulation forecast
04:26 Snow ratios, melting and model totals
05:01 Northeast redevelopment
06:21 The eventual Chicago warm-up

Review prepared October 19, 2026. Checks are limited to cited locations, dates and metrics; no numerical accuracy score is assigned. 'Popular Archive' is the publisher's selection label, not a verified current rank. Cover artwork is illustrative, not a historical map or photograph of this specific event.

Source episode ID: 59269543. Original source edition: Winter Storm Midwest 4/2/24 (April 2024 Most Popular)
https://www.spreaker.com/episo...

Become a supporter of this podcast: https://www.spreaker.com/podcast/did-the-forecast-hold--7479728/support.

(00:00:00) The January 12 winter-storm setup

(00:01:54) Reading the NWS forecast uncertainty

(00:03:10) Rain–snow line and warning downgrades

(00:04:26) The double-barrel low-pressure system

(00:05:16) Rapid strengthening and storm-track uncertainty

(00:05:55) Post-storm winds and blizzard risk

POPULAR ARCHIVE 09 OF 22 | Original Weather With Enthusiasm audio, preserved as supplied.

HISTORICAL RECORDING, NOT A CURRENT FORECAST. The review below is written only and is not spoken in this audio. No AI review narration has been added.

Recording/content date: 2024-01-12. Verified source-edition publication: 2024-01-12 19:20:08 UTC.

FORECAST VS. REALITY
The episode identified a consequential Chicago winter storm and the difficult rain–snow boundary, while also anticipating subsequent snow in Memphis and Baltimore; local snow totals varied substantially.

WHAT THE ORIGINAL AUDIO SAYS
A deep Midwest winter storm, heavy snow and strong winds, while the Chicago rain–snow line creates substantial local uncertainty.

PUTTING THE FORECAST IN CONTEXT
The recording is valuable in showing an evolving same-day forecast and discussing uncertainty in the NWS guidance. A metro-wide snow headline should not be evaluated as though it promised the same depth at the lakefront and inland. The later southern and Mid-Atlantic snow outlook deserves recognition alongside the Chicago forecast.

NWS Chicago's event report lists 6.7 inches at O'Hare and much larger totals inland, including 13.6 inches near Bull Valley.
(National Weather Service event report: https://www.weather.gov/lot/20...

The same report lists 3.5 inches near Evanston and 3.0 inches in Chicago–West Ridge, demonstrating why a metro-wide description cannot be read as one snowfall total everywhere.
(National Weather Service event report: https://www.weather.gov/lot/20...

Baltimore-Washington Airport recorded 4.9 inches across January 15–16, while Memphis Airport recorded 3.4 inches across January 14–15, supporting the recording's outlook for subsequent southern and Mid-Atlantic snow.
(NOAA NCEI daily station observations: https://www.ncei.noaa.gov/acce...,USW00013893&startDate=2024-01-14&endDate=2024-01-17&dataTypes=SNOW&units=standard&format=json&includeStationName=true)

SCOPE OF THIS CHECK
This is an evolving same-day forecast, not a single final snowfall prediction; the review does not validate an exact pressure record, area-wide blizzard criteria, or the audio's suggestion of a lunar cause.

CHAPTERS IN THE ORIGINAL AUDIO
00:00 The January 12 winter-storm setup
01:54 Reading the NWS forecast uncertainty
03:10 Rain–snow line and warning downgrades
04:26 The double-barrel low-pressure system
05:16 Rapid strengthening and storm-track uncertainty
05:55 Post-storm winds and blizzard risk

Review prepared October 19, 2026. Checks are limited to cited locations, dates and metrics; no numerical accuracy score is assigned. 'Popular Archive' is the publisher's selection label, not a verified current rank. Cover artwork is illustrative, not a historical map or photograph of this specific event.

Source episode ID: 58281451. Original source edition: (2024's most popular)1/12/24: Friday Update with entertaining Sound effects
https://www.spreaker.com/episo...

Become a supporter of this podcast: https://www.spreaker.com/podcast/did-the-forecast-hold--7479728/support.

(00:00:00) Autumn heat and the holiday weekend

(00:00:46) Hill City, Kansas and hot winds

(00:03:10) Omaha, Texas and lingering summer

(00:05:10) Holiday rain chances and overnight temperatures

(00:06:36) October cooldown outlook

(00:08:18) The Chicago weekend forecast

POPULAR ARCHIVE 08 OF 22 | Original Weather With Enthusiasm audio, preserved as supplied.

HISTORICAL RECORDING, NOT A CURRENT FORECAST. The review below is written only and is not spoken in this audio. No AI review narration has been added.

Recording/content date: 2023-09-28. Verified source-edition publication: 2023-09-28 19:27:52 UTC.

FORECAST VS. REALITY
The Chicago forecast captured the warm, dry holiday weekend and the subsequent cooldown well; some days were a little hotter than the headline low-to-mid-80s range.

WHAT THE ORIGINAL AUDIO SAYS
A warm, largely pleasant Chicago holiday weekend with low-to-mid-80s highs, then a substantial cooldown toward the latter part of the following week.

PUTTING THE FORECAST IN CONTEXT
The practical forecast for people spending the holiday outdoors was the warmth and low rain risk, not a claim that every location would reach an identical number. The airport observations support that useful message. The later temperature drop also fits the change in pattern the episode anticipated.

O'Hare reached 84°F on Saturday September 30 and 87°F on Sunday October 1, with no measurable rain on either day, supporting the warm, dry weekend outlook.
(NOAA NCEI daily station observations: https://www.ncei.noaa.gov/acce...,TMIN,PRCP&units=standard&format=json&includeStationName=true)

The warmth lasted into October 2–4 with highs of 86°F, 87°F, and 84°F, before highs fell to 62°F, 61°F, and 57°F on October 6–8.
(NOAA NCEI daily station observations: https://www.ncei.noaa.gov/acce...,TMIN,PRCP&units=standard&format=json&includeStationName=true)

SCOPE OF THIS CHECK
This review tests the Chicago portion, not the precise Hill City 100°F forecast or Omaha and Minneapolis storm chances; the audio's wind-related apparent-temperature discussion is not treated as a verified heat-index observation.

CHAPTERS IN THE ORIGINAL AUDIO
00:00 Autumn heat and the holiday weekend
00:46 Hill City, Kansas and hot winds
03:10 Omaha, Texas and lingering summer
05:10 Holiday rain chances and overnight temperatures
06:36 October cooldown outlook
08:18 The Chicago weekend forecast

Review prepared October 19, 2026. Checks are limited to cited locations, dates and metrics; no numerical accuracy score is assigned. 'Popular Archive' is the publisher's selection label, not a verified current rank. Cover artwork is illustrative, not a historical map or photograph of this specific event.

Source episode ID: 56982012. Original source edition: 100° Heat heads to Midwest (Most popular episode)
https://www.spreaker.com/episo...

Become a supporter of this podcast: https://www.spreaker.com/podcast/did-the-forecast-hold--7479728/support.

(00:00:00) Heat in Canada's Arctic

(00:01:41) Astrakhan and international heat

(00:02:32) Chicago downpours and cool St. Louis

(00:03:24) Phoenix heat and unofficial Iranian readings

(00:05:13) The Lut Desert and thermometer caveats

(00:06:28) Arizona heat dome and severe-weather risks

(00:08:04) Chicago rain and the closing trailer

POPULAR ARCHIVE 07 OF 22 | Original Weather With Enthusiasm audio, preserved as supplied.

HISTORICAL RECORDING, NOT A CURRENT FORECAST. The review below is written only and is not spoken in this audio. No AI review narration has been added.

Recording/content date: 2023-07-07. Verified source-edition publication: 2023-07-08 00:03:50 UTC. These are separate dates, not interchangeable.

FORECAST VS. REALITY
A good anticipation of St. Louis's cool Saturday followed by a sharp Tuesday warm-up, with a justified focus on Phoenix's extreme heat; the localized rain discussion warrants a more cautious comparison.

WHAT THE ORIGINAL AUDIO SAYS
Chicago rain July 7–8, a cool Saturday in St. Louis followed by heat by Tuesday, and Phoenix continuing an exceptional 110-degree stretch.

PUTTING THE FORECAST IN CONTEXT
The host explicitly makes heavy Chicago rain conditional on thunderstorms developing and discusses the rain shifting south. A relatively dry O'Hare observation therefore cannot fairly be used to declare that conditional regional forecast wrong. Unofficial international thermometer readings are retained as things discussed in the audio, not silently upgraded to official records.

St. Louis Lambert reached 80°F on July 8 and 96°F on July 11, matching the forecast's cool Saturday followed by a major Tuesday warm-up.
(NOAA NCEI daily station observations: https://www.ncei.noaa.gov/acce...,USW00013994&startDate=2023-07-07&endDate=2023-07-11&dataTypes=TMAX,TMIN,PRCP&units=standard&format=json&includeStationName=true)

O'Hare recorded 0.01 inch on July 7 and 0.14 inch on July 8; these point observations are not a test of the audio's conditional downpour scenario across the wider region and to its south.
(NOAA NCEI daily station observations: https://www.ncei.noaa.gov/acce...,USW00013994&startDate=2023-07-07&endDate=2023-07-11&dataTypes=TMAX,TMIN,PRCP&units=standard&format=json&includeStationName=true)

Phoenix ultimately reached 119°F on July 20 and July 25, confirming that the recording was discussing a genuinely extreme heat episode, though not a realized 120°F outcome.
(National Weather Service event report: https://www.weather.gov/psr/ye...

SCOPE OF THIS CHECK
A low airport rainfall total does not disprove a localized downpour elsewhere; the Canadian Arctic, Astrakhan, and Iranian readings in this audio have not been validated as official station records and are not endorsed here.

CHAPTERS IN THE ORIGINAL AUDIO
00:00 Heat in Canada's Arctic
01:41 Astrakhan and international heat
02:32 Chicago downpours and cool St. Louis
03:24 Phoenix heat and unofficial Iranian readings
05:13 The Lut Desert and thermometer caveats
06:28 Arizona heat dome and severe-weather risks
08:04 Chicago rain and the closing trailer

Review prepared October 19, 2026. Checks are limited to cited locations, dates and metrics; no numerical accuracy score is assigned. 'Popular Archive' is the publisher's selection label, not a verified current rank. Cover artwork is illustrative, not a historical map or photograph of this specific event.

Source episode ID: 56039004. Original source edition: Arctic Episode: Extreme Heat In Arctic, Phoenix, Iran and Russia 7-7-23 (popular)
https://www.spreaker.com/episo...

Become a supporter of this podcast: https://www.spreaker.com/podcast/did-the-forecast-hold--7479728/support.

(00:00:00) Southern severe-weather risk

(00:01:32) The Texas heat dome and hot air aloft

(00:03:34) McAllen heat index and the ring of fire

(00:06:08) Why Chicago is outside the main heat

(00:07:43) Big Bend heat and wildfire smoke

(00:08:50) Gulf Coast humidity and Miami

(00:11:56) Texas coast rip currents and sign-off

POPULAR ARCHIVE 06 OF 22 | Original Weather With Enthusiasm audio, preserved as supplied.

HISTORICAL RECORDING, NOT A CURRENT FORECAST. The review below is written only and is not spoken in this audio. No AI review narration has been added.

Recording/content date: 2023-06-14. Verified source-edition publication: 2023-06-14 23:40:38 UTC.

FORECAST VS. REALITY
The episode gave a well-supported warning of persistent, oppressive Texas heat and limited relief; the verified heat-index streak underlines the value of that broader call.

WHAT THE ORIGINAL AUDIO SAYS
A persistent Texas heat dome, oppressive humidity, dangerous heat indices and strengthening heat into the following week; severe storms along the heat dome's edge.

PUTTING THE FORECAST IN CONTEXT
The recording separates air temperature, humidity and the heat-dome pattern, rather than relying on temperature alone. Official observations support the prolonged heat concern. They do not establish every particular city reading or the technical classification of each storm complex, and those narrower items are left open rather than labeled failures.

NWS Brownsville's summer summary documents McAllen heat indices of at least 116°F on eleven consecutive days, June 13–23, and on twelve days during June.
(National Weather Service event report: https://www.weather.gov/media/...

The same official account describes a high-pressure ridge building on June 9 and persisting across Texas through the remainder of June, matching the recording's larger-scale heat-dome concern.
(National Weather Service event report: https://www.weather.gov/media/...

Most days from June 12–30 also had prolonged heat indices above 90°F overnight, supporting the concern about limited nighttime relief.
(National Weather Service event report: https://www.weather.gov/media/...

SCOPE OF THIS CHECK
Heat index is not air temperature or wet-bulb temperature; this check does not certify the exact McAllen 120°F reading, the Baton Rouge model temperatures, or whether a particular storm complex met the technical derecho definition.

CHAPTERS IN THE ORIGINAL AUDIO
00:00 Southern severe-weather risk
01:32 The Texas heat dome and hot air aloft
03:34 McAllen heat index and the ring of fire
06:08 Why Chicago is outside the main heat
07:43 Big Bend heat and wildfire smoke
08:50 Gulf Coast humidity and Miami
11:56 Texas coast rip currents and sign-off

Review prepared October 19, 2026. Checks are limited to cited locations, dates and metrics; no numerical accuracy score is assigned. 'Popular Archive' is the publisher's selection label, not a verified current rank. Cover artwork is illustrative, not a historical map or photograph of this specific event.

Source episode ID: 54413048. Original source edition: (2nd most popular) Derecho.Hot New Orleans ,Dallas, Baton Rouge, Houston and etc.
https://www.spreaker.com/episo...

Become a supporter of this podcast: https://www.spreaker.com/podcast/did-the-forecast-hold--7479728/support.

(00:00:00) Central North America's early heat

(00:01:42) Winnipeg and the Illinois–Iowa border

(00:02:55) St. Louis and unusual southeast winds

(00:04:27) Chicago and the missing Bermuda High

(00:07:58) Canadian advisories and the longer-range pattern

(00:09:26) Closing trailer

POPULAR ARCHIVE 05 OF 22 | Original Weather With Enthusiasm audio, preserved as supplied.

HISTORICAL RECORDING, NOT A CURRENT FORECAST. The review below is written only and is not spoken in this audio. No AI review narration has been added.

Recording/content date: 2023-05-28. Verified source-edition publication: 2023-05-28 05:00:00 UTC.

FORECAST VS. REALITY
A particularly good call on the timing, persistence and strength of the Illinois–Iowa-border heat: the four-day 90s forecast verified and the hot spell lasted longer still.

WHAT THE ORIGINAL AUDIO SAYS
At least four consecutive days in the 90s near the Illinois–Iowa border, with mid-90s possible and a cooler, lake-influenced Chicago.

PUTTING THE FORECAST IN CONTEXT
The episode emphasizes that heat would not be uniform and that Lake Michigan complicated Chicago's temperatures. Moline is an appropriate check on the clearly named Illinois–Iowa-border target, not a substitute for every city discussed. The verified heat signal is worth highlighting even though this review does not certify all the surrounding details.

Moline's official highs were 92°F on May 30, 93°F on May 31, 94°F on June 1, and 95°F on June 2, verifying the four-day stretch emphasized in the recording.
(NOAA NCEI daily station observations: https://www.ncei.noaa.gov/acce...,TMIN&units=standard&format=json&includeStationName=true)

The run was even longer: Moline reached 90°F on May 29, 96°F on June 3, and 93°F on June 4 before falling to 88°F on June 5.
(NOAA NCEI daily station observations: https://www.ncei.noaa.gov/acce...,TMIN&units=standard&format=json&includeStationName=true)

SCOPE OF THIS CHECK
Moline is the station used to test the Illinois–Iowa-border claim; Winnipeg observations, Canadian warning coverage, New Orleans humidity and Chicago lakeside neighborhoods are not independently verified in this review.

CHAPTERS IN THE ORIGINAL AUDIO
00:00 Central North America's early heat
01:42 Winnipeg and the Illinois–Iowa border
02:55 St. Louis and unusual southeast winds
04:27 Chicago and the missing Bermuda High
07:58 Canadian advisories and the longer-range pattern
09:26 Closing trailer

Review prepared October 19, 2026. Checks are limited to cited locations, dates and metrics; no numerical accuracy score is assigned. 'Popular Archive' is the publisher's selection label, not a verified current rank. Cover artwork is illustrative, not a historical map or photograph of this specific event.

Source episode ID: 54024745. Original source edition: (2nd most popular)Week of 5-28 1st widespread extended heat of season for Central N.A. (even Canada) this week
https://www.spreaker.com/episo...

Become a supporter of this podcast: https://www.spreaker.com/podcast/did-the-forecast-hold--7479728/support.

(00:00:00) May 1 introduction and cold air aloft

(00:03:58) Upper Midwest snow

(00:04:37) Phoenix and western heat

(00:09:16) Warmth moving toward the Plains

(00:12:22) Chicago and Lake Michigan

(00:17:31) National Weather Service snow-season reports

(00:24:05) Rainfall reports

(00:26:41) New York and Chicago forecasts

POPULAR ARCHIVE 04 OF 22 | Original Weather With Enthusiasm audio, preserved as supplied.

HISTORICAL RECORDING, NOT A CURRENT FORECAST. The review below is written only and is not spoken in this audio. No AI review narration has been added.

Recording/content date: 2023-05-01. Verified source-edition publication: 2023-05-01 18:01:44 UTC.

FORECAST VS. REALITY
The episode's central picture of remarkable late-season snow alongside Southwest heat is supported, including Phoenix's triple-digit report; this review does not grade each later warm-up number.

WHAT THE ORIGINAL AUDIO SAYS
A major late-season Upper Midwest snow event, followed by a warmer pattern; the recording also reports Phoenix's first 100-degree day and includes National Weather Service segments.

PUTTING THE FORECAST IN CONTEXT
The storm was already in progress when this episode was made, and it mixes ongoing reporting, future expectations and NWS readings. Whole-storm snowfall totals support the event's importance without pretending they all fell after the recording. That distinction preserves credit for the correct weather picture without overstating the amount of advance prediction.

NWS Marquette documents a historic April 29–May 2 storm with 9–18 inches in the western Upper Peninsula and 24–48 inches in the north-central Upper Peninsula.
(National Weather Service event report: https://www.weather.gov/mqt/Hi...

The same event brought 40–50-mph gusts, wet-snow tree damage and power outages, supporting the recording's description of a high-impact late-season storm.
(National Weather Service event report: https://www.weather.gov/mqt/Hi...

Phoenix's official high on April 30 was 102°F, consistent with the episode's report of triple-digit heat the previous day.
(National Weather Service event report: https://www.weather.gov/psr/ye...

SCOPE OF THIS CHECK
The Upper Peninsula figures are whole-event totals, including snow before this recording; they do not prove that several additional feet fell after the forecast was issued, and the Plains and Chicago warm-up details are not individually scored.

CHAPTERS IN THE ORIGINAL AUDIO
00:00 May 1 introduction and cold air aloft
03:58 Upper Midwest snow
04:37 Phoenix and western heat
09:16 Warmth moving toward the Plains
12:22 Chicago and Lake Michigan
17:31 National Weather Service snow-season reports
24:05 Rainfall reports
26:41 New York and Chicago forecasts

Review prepared October 19, 2026. Checks are limited to cited locations, dates and metrics; no numerical accuracy score is assigned. 'Popular Archive' is the publisher's selection label, not a verified current rank. Cover artwork is illustrative, not a historical map or photograph of this specific event.

Source episode ID: 53708238. Original source edition: May 1st Weather Next 7 days (most popular)
https://www.spreaker.com/episo...

Become a supporter of this podcast: https://www.spreaker.com/podcast/did-the-forecast-hold--7479728/support.

(00:00:00) Two Northeast storms and Albany/Boston snow

(00:01:56) The snow drought and Baltimore's chances

(00:02:52) Comparing GFS, European and ICON guidance

(00:04:07) Johnstown, New York and the Canadian high

(00:07:52) Confidence in the next Northeast storm

(00:08:22) Midwest impacts

(00:09:52) National Weather Service New York discussion

POPULAR ARCHIVE 03 OF 22 | Original Weather With Enthusiasm audio, preserved as supplied.

HISTORICAL RECORDING, NOT A CURRENT FORECAST. The review below is written only and is not spoken in this audio. No AI review narration has been added.

Recording/content date: 2023-02-26. Verified source-edition publication: 2023-02-27 19:20:14 UTC. These are separate dates, not interchangeable.

FORECAST VS. REALITY
The forecast correctly anticipated two Northeast snow opportunities and identified the Canadian high and storm track as the key uncertainties; coastal city snow amounts were ultimately lower than the snowier scenarios discussed.

WHAT THE ORIGINAL AUDIO SAYS
February 27–28 snow near Albany and Boston, followed by a March 3–4 storm with possible substantial Northeast snow and roughly 1.3 inches in Baltimore in model guidance.

PUTTING THE FORECAST IN CONTEXT
The audio distinguishes uplands from downslope locations and discusses several models rather than guaranteeing a single outcome. Albany Airport's first-storm total was below the emphasized 5–8-inch bullseye, but within the separately mentioned 3–6-inch lower range. Airport observations should not erase successful recognition of the broader inland snow threat.

Albany Airport recorded 2.5 inches on February 27 and 1.9 on February 28, totaling 4.4 inches, below the 5–8-inch range discussed for the area.
(NOAA NCEI daily station observations: https://www.ncei.noaa.gov/acce...,USW00014739,USW00093721,USW00094728&startDate=2023-02-27&endDate=2023-03-05&dataTypes=SNOW,PRCP&units=standard&format=json&includeStationName=true)

Boston Logan recorded 0.8 inch on February 28, below the 2–5-inch city-area expectation, while Central Park received 1.8 inches across February 27–28.
(NOAA NCEI daily station observations: https://www.ncei.noaa.gov/acce...,USW00014739,USW00093721,USW00094728&startDate=2023-02-27&endDate=2023-03-05&dataTypes=SNOW,PRCP&units=standard&format=json&includeStationName=true)

For March 3–4, Albany Airport totaled 7.8 inches, Boston Logan 0.4 inch, and Central Park and Baltimore-Washington Airport 0.0 inch each, so the later foot-plus coastal scenario and Baltimore's model snow did not verify at those stations.
(NOAA NCEI daily station observations: https://www.ncei.noaa.gov/acce...,USW00014739,USW00093721,USW00094728&startDate=2023-02-27&endDate=2023-03-05&dataTypes=SNOW,PRCP&units=standard&format=json&includeStationName=true)

SCOPE OF THIS CHECK
Airport and Central Park observations do not represent every inland hill or suburb; the audio describes model possibilities as well as forecasts, and those are not treated as equally confident promises.

CHAPTERS IN THE ORIGINAL AUDIO
00:00 Two Northeast storms and Albany/Boston snow
01:56 The snow drought and Baltimore's chances
02:52 Comparing GFS, European and ICON guidance
04:07 Johnstown, New York and the Canadian high
07:52 Confidence in the next Northeast storm
08:22 Midwest impacts
09:52 National Weather Service New York discussion

Review prepared October 19, 2026. Checks are limited to cited locations, dates and metrics; no numerical accuracy score is assigned. 'Popular Archive' is the publisher's selection label, not a verified current rank. Cover artwork is illustrative, not a historical map or photograph of this specific event.

Source episode ID: 52869021. Original source edition: With Sound Effects, February 26th 2023 Podcast (most popular)
https://www.spreaker.com/episo...

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