A forecast and extended outlook discussion concerning a significant pattern change arriving next week, and a comparison between extreme weather impacts in Western New York compared to extreme impacts elsewhere in the U.S. (Hint: a record 28 $Billion+ disasters last year, none of them in WNY.)

Another oscillating band of intense lake effect snow pasted the Buffalo Southtowns by early Wednesday before shifting well north by afternoon. It will continue to oscillate, slowly shifting back toward the metro area and Northtown 'burbs by evening, and probably back to the Southtowns later this evening. More widespread lighter snow is likely Thursday, w/an embedded lake band, and still more widespread snow on Friday. Better news in the extended outlook.

While this next storm may not QUITE measure up in peak wind speeds to the weekend storm, it will be another major lake effect snowstorm, with high impacts in the Buffalo metro area and nearby 'burbs. It must be kept in mind the heavy accumulations will be greatly complicated by Gusty Winds.

Lake snow and strong winds have pummeled the Buffalo Southtowns and some eastern 'burbs Sunday afternoon, and this duration may be a factor in getting the OP stadium ready in time for Monday even as conditions improve. Lake snow will be on the move again later tonight, shifting northward again toward and through the metro area, with some weakening. More lake effect events are likely this week, with harsh cold staying into next weekend before changes arrive.

Oscillations will be the troublesome name of the game in forecasting the timing and location of intense lake effect snow the remainder of this weekend, with near-Blizzard conditions within the most intense band. There will be frequent whiteouts along with frigid temps and wind chill endangering any stranded motorist. Erie County will be under a Driving Ban after 9pm Saturday, but drivers traveling outside of Erie County in affected areas should have an emergency travel kit in their vehicles. https://www.consumerreports.org/cars/winter-driving/winter-car-emergency-kit-review-winter-driving-safety-a9935578560/

Another major winter storm will rake Western New York this weekend, with localized blizzard and near blizzard conditions likely in the strong to high winds as lake effect snow intensifies. Lake Erie shoreline flooding will develop Saturday as well, with harsh to potentially brutal conditions for the game on Sunday. Details on impacts and best estimates of lake snow movement and potential accumulations.

High Wind Watch, Lakeshore Flood Watch, and now a Winter Storm Watch in a complex wind and snow situation setting up for this weekend, with strong SE winds the first sign Friday evening. Lake Effect potential will be increasing during Saturday into Sunday night, but specificity on timing and location still a tough call. The lake snow will be accompanied by strong winds, making for very hazardous travel. I'll keep you update here and on social media.

By Friday, still another low pressure system will begin to explosively intensify over the deep south and head toward the Great Lakes. It will produce Severe Tstorms over the SE U.S., but will bring strong to possible High Winds in WNY by Saturday afternoon, along with developing significant lake effect snow. That snow will be close to Orchard Park by Sunday AM, and MAY shift toward the metro area. Harsh temps and wind chill are a lock for the game, with a truly wintry week to follow and more lake snow episodes likely.

A High Wind WARNING is in effect from late Tuesday AM until 4 AM Wed for All WNY counties. This podcast has details on the hazards and damage potential associated with this rare SE to NW high wind event, which is likely to produce widespread outages and tree/property damage. PLUS a look ahead to another major storm moving in Saturday with potential high winds and lake effect snow, followed by a harsh wintry Playoff Sunday. PLEASE FOLLOW.

A major High Wind event appears to be shaping up for all of Western New York, with an earlier High Wind Watch for most of WNY expanded and elevated to a High Wind WARNING for all of WNY from 10am Tuesday to 4am Wednesday. A very rare threat for damaging downslope SE winds across the region...details and timing in this episode. Widespread wind damage & power outages expected.