The Gulf Stream and its parent current, the Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation/AMOC may be weakening more rapidly than expected due to global warming. That is, the melting of freshwater glaciers and the Greenland ice cap tied to warming is sending so much freshwater into the far North Atlantic, its salinity is being diluted, which can weaken or even shut down the Gulf Stream, as has occurred several times in Earth's past...quickly, too.

The Wind Chill Index is used to calculate estimated heat loss from exposed skin in cold, windy conditions. The Wind Chill EFFECT, seldom discussed, has a real and significant impact on inanimate objects, like your house and possibly your car, as well. In this shorter episode, I fill you in on the WC Effect.

While the National Weather Service, most local tv meteorologists, and mets like me generally offer "only" a 7 day forecast...when you can find apps which offer 30 and 45 day (day by day specifics) forecasts, why stop at 7? The answer is connected with junk science, some put out by private forecasting companies who KNOW it's junk science. In straightforward language, I briefly explain why not just me but the overwhelming majority of operational meteorologists feel many consumers are being sold a bill of shoddy goods.

Yes, the earth's climate has undergone periodic cooling and heating through the planet's geological history, but that climate change has been irrefutably tied to predictable changes in the earth's orbit and axial tilt which change the Earth's solar energy budget. The current warming is markedly different from past warmings. Episode 5 brings you the evidence-based science behind this.

I've tried to keep the language simplified, but have detailed the forecast variables and complexities in ways seldom seen or heard on tv weathercasts. Bottom line: lake effect forecasting is even more challenging than you may have thought, but better tools are helping meteorologists to make better lake effect forecasts. I hope you enjoy this lake snow primer, and PLEASE SHARE.

I've always had a problem with the commonly used term "feels like" as being even more imprecise than the actual wind chill index or, in warm weather, the heat index. How we feel can be very subjective and tied directly to what we're doing when exposed to a cold wind or hot and humid conditions. I offer a brief history of the wind chill index (the NWS won't use "feels like" either) and what it really means, with just a hint of kvetching fun. Please share if you're enjoying this episode or my podcast in general.

Episode 2, Don Paul Bits o' Blather on Weather, Climate, and Some Humor

First the forecast into early next week, Dec 12.

Next, the understandable geographic confusion on geographic descriptions for WNY regions, with an explanation which MAY help you figure out where I'm talking about, particularly during lake effect forecasts...all on the assumption my forecast will be on the money geographically! :D

A quick weather forecast followed by a short explanation on the return of my Don Paul Podcast. I queried followers on Facebook earlier Sunday afternoon as to whether they'd like to see my podcast back in action, and I was bowled over by the response...so here goes. I plan on doing much more frequent episodes, mostly audio, to afford me more chances to communicate with you, sometimes going beyond weather and battling junk science--much of which is dangerous stuff--and relying on evidence-based science to buttress my opinions. Since I'm now restricted to just 6 articles/month in the subscription-based Buffalo News digital edition, this will give me the chance to be more expansive...besides my waistline. HOPE YOU'LL FOLLOW AND TELL OTHERS!